Core Viewpoint - The current geopolitical tensions and trade disputes, particularly between the US and EU, are increasing the attractiveness of safe-haven assets like silver, while the dollar's appeal is diminishing due to a cautious outlook on global economic growth [3]. Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 98.607, while spot silver is priced at $95.03 per ounce, having opened at $94.64 and reaching a high of $95.48 and a low of $93.33 during the day [1]. - The latest prices for silver include: - Spot silver: $95.03 per ounce - Silver T+D: ¥23,228 per kilogram - Paper silver: ¥21.263 per gram - Shanghai silver futures: ¥23,131 per kilogram [2]. Fundamental Analysis - President Trump's firm stance on Greenland and threats of tariffs against certain EU countries are raising concerns about further deterioration in the global trade environment [3]. - The European Parliament plans to pause the approval process for the US-EU trade agreement from July, with the EU signaling potential countermeasures against US goods, indicating a risk of escalating US-EU tensions [3]. - In this uncertain geopolitical climate, the appeal of safe-haven assets like silver is increasing, while the dollar's attractiveness is declining due to a cautious outlook on global economic growth [3]. - Recent robust US labor market data has led to a delay in market expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts until June [3]. - The upcoming World Economic Forum will be crucial, with Trump's speech and policy statements from the US, China, and EU, as well as discussions on AI and wealth distribution, likely to influence market expectations [3]. Trading Strategy - On the daily chart, silver prices remain above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $82.96, maintaining a bullish trend [4]. - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 73.38, indicating an overbought condition, which may suggest a brief consolidation despite the strong trend [5]. - The distance between price and moving averages is widening, indicating a continuation of the trend, while any pullback may find support near the rising average [5].

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to perform strongly under the influence of international political and economic restructuring, the Fed's loose monetary policy, improved global economic growth prospects, and the substitution demand of silver and platinum for gold jewelry. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading approach while controlling position sizes. Short - hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. [4] - The restructuring of the global political and economic landscape and the loose monetary policies of global central banks will continue to boost the demand for reserve diversification, strategic value, and liquidity premium of the precious metals sector. In 2026, the precious metals sector will continue the medium - term upward trend since 2024. Silver and platinum will outperform gold, but price volatility will also increase significantly. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market Conditions - Due to the US raid on Venezuela over the weekend and the capture of the Venezuelan president, which triggered significant geopolitical risks, the precious metals sector generally rose during the Asian session on Monday, with London gold returning above $4,400 per ounce. The correction at the end of December 2025 has fully released the adjustment risks accumulated within the precious metals. [4] - Domestic precious metals showed varying degrees of increase. The Shanghai Gold Index rose 1.78%, the Shanghai Silver Index rose 6.81%, the Guangzhou Platinum Index rose 10.66%, and the Guangzhou Palladium Index rose 6.38%. [5] Medium - term Market Conditions - Trump's 2.0 government may focus on consolidating the geopolitical strategic space in the Western Hemisphere in 2026, which may lead to a significant increase in geopolitical risks. [5] - The improvement of global economic growth momentum and the substitution demand of silver and platinum for gold jewelry will make the performance of silver and platinum stronger than that of gold. The industrial demand for silver is boosted by the global green energy transition, and the industrial demand for platinum and palladium is expected to improve due to the EU's cancellation of the 2035 fuel - vehicle ban. [5] - Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading approach, strictly control position sizes. Conservative traders can consider cross - variety arbitrage strategies such as going long on silver and platinum and short on gold and palladium. Long - hedgers should hedge in batches as early as possible, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. [5] 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US President Trump ordered the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro and claimed that the US would take over Venezuela, but the US military has not gained control of Venezuela, and the Maduro government is still in power and unwilling to cooperate with Washington. [16] - Venezuela's state - owned oil company PDVSA has started to cut crude oil production due to the US oil embargo, and Chevron's oil shipments have also stopped since Thursday. [16] - India is asking refiners to report their weekly purchases of Russian and US crude oil, and it is expected that Russia's crude oil imports will drop below 1 million barrels per day. [16]

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to factors such as the year - end consumption peak season, the Fed's loose monetary policy, and the improvement of the global growth outlook, the precious metals sector, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to perform strongly. Investors are advised to take a long - biased approach in precious metals trading, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce their position sizes. Attention should be paid to the situations in Venezuela and the Russia - Ukraine conflict, as well as the US third - quarter GDP data this week [4]. - In the medium - term (2026), the accelerating restructuring of the global political and economic system and abundant monetary liquidity will support the continued strong performance of gold prices. However, Trump 2.0's new policies and the decrease in the intensity of the China - US game will restrain the upward momentum of gold prices. London gold is expected to rise to the range of $4800 - 5000 per ounce. With the improvement of the global economic growth outlook, silver, which has stronger industrial attributes and higher volatility, will gain greater upward momentum. London silver is expected to rise to $73.5 - 77.5 per ounce, and the London gold - silver ratio is expected to drop to around 65. Platinum's substitution for gold and silver in consumption and investment demand will continue, with London platinum expected to rise to $2000 - 2100 per ounce, and the London gold - platinum ratio expected to drop to around 2.4. Palladium will basically follow the trend of gold, with an annual increase target of $1620 - 1700 per ounce. Investors are advised to maintain a long - biased approach, short - hedgers should reduce the hedging ratio, and conservative investors can consider the arbitrage opportunity of long silver and platinum and short gold [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - Geopolitical risks, such as the increased US military operations in the offshore area of Venezuela over the weekend, have pushed up precious metal prices and international oil prices. The market is also concerned about the potential impact of the new nominee for the Fed Chair. On Monday, the precious metals sector continued to perform strongly, and London gold reached a new high after two months of sideways adjustment [4]. - Domestic precious metals showed significant increases. The intraday increase of the Shanghai Gold Index was 2.10%, the Shanghai Silver Index was 5.42%, the Guangzhou Platinum Index was 6.52%, and the Guangzhou Palladium Index was 5.87% [5]. Medium - term Market - Forecasts for 2026: London gold to $4800 - 5000 per ounce; London silver to $73.5 - 77.5 per ounce with a gold - silver ratio of around 65; London platinum to $2000 - 2100 per ounce with a gold - platinum ratio of around 2.4; London palladium to $1620 - 1700 per ounce [5]. - Trading strategies: Long - biased approach for investors, reducing the hedging ratio for short - hedgers, and considering the arbitrage opportunity of long silver and platinum and short gold for conservative investors [5]. 2. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Regarding the Fed's stance, different officials have different views. New York Fed President Williams believes there is no urgent need to cut interest rates again, Fed Governor Milan advocates for a rate cut, Cleveland Fed President Hamark thinks there is no need to adjust interest rates in the next few months, and White House economic advisor and Fed Chair candidate Hassett agrees with Trump's view that inflation is very low [17]. - US military actions near Venezuela: The US Coast Guard is pursuing an oil tanker in international waters near Venezuela. Trump still believes there is a possibility of war with Venezuela, but the White House claims that US citizens don't need to worry about oil price increases [17]. - China's trade data: In November, China's rare - earth magnet exports significantly rebounded, reaching a 10 - month high. Exports to Japan reached a record high, and those to the EU were the second - highest on record, while exports to the US declined. China's soybean imports in November reached the highest level in the same period in four years, with imports from Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay hitting record highs in the same period, but there was zero import of US soybeans for the third consecutive month, setting a record for the longest period of zero imports [18].

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. tariff policy is causing significant turmoil in global markets, with mixed signals from the Trump administration leading to confusion about the effective dates of tariffs [1][13]. Market Reactions - Asian stock markets mostly declined, with the Nikkei 225 and Thailand's SET index both dropping approximately 0.5%. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index fell by 0.6% [1]. - U.S. stock index futures also faced pressure, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both down about 0.5% [1]. - Commodity prices generally decreased, with gold dropping over $20 to $3314 per ounce, and copper falling for the third consecutive day to $9821 per ton [1][6]. Commodity Market Impact - The uncertainty in trade policies has led to widespread declines in commodity prices, with iron ore prices in Singapore down 0.3% to $95.60 per ton, and futures for steel in Dalian and Shanghai also declining [6]. - Brent crude oil prices fell by 0.6% to $67.8 per barrel, while WTI crude oil prices decreased by 1.4% to $64.7 per barrel, influenced by both tariff policies and OPEC+ decisions to increase production [7]. Bond Market Response - There was an increase in demand for safe-haven bonds, with the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds dropping nearly 2 basis points to 4.326% [10]. - The U.S. dollar index slightly rose to 97.071, while the euro to dollar exchange rate remained stable at 1.1771, close to last week's high of 1.1830 [10].

Core Viewpoint - The market shows a clear divide regarding the future trajectory of gold prices, which are currently at historical highs around $3,300 per ounce, with expectations of a potential decline due to improved global economic outlook and reduced geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][4][10]. Price Trends - As of July 2, 2025, spot gold prices have slightly increased to $3,347.4 per ounce, while COMEX gold prices are around $3,350 per ounce [1][4]. - Since reaching a peak of $3,500 per ounce on April 22, 2025, gold prices have stabilized around $3,300 per ounce [4][11]. ETF Flows - In May 2025, global physical gold ETFs experienced a net outflow of approximately $1.8 billion, marking the first monthly outflow since November 2024 [4][9]. - North America faced the most significant impact, with ETF outflows of about $1.5 billion, while Asia saw outflows of approximately $489 million, primarily due to reduced demand in China [6][7]. Regional Analysis - Europe recorded a modest inflow of about $225 million, driven by the French market, which offset outflows from Germany and the UK [7]. - The "other regions" category experienced a small outflow of about $27 million, ending a five-month inflow streak, mainly from Australia and South Africa [8]. Future Price Predictions - Citigroup forecasts that gold prices may decline to between $2,500 and $2,700 per ounce by the second half of 2026, citing reduced investment demand and improved economic conditions [10][11]. - Other institutions, such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, maintain a more optimistic outlook, predicting prices could reach $6,000 and $3,700 per ounce, respectively, by the end of 2025 [12]. Market Sentiment - Despite the recent outflows, the World Gold Council notes that global gold ETFs have seen a net inflow of about $30 billion since the beginning of 2025, with total holdings increasing by 322 tons [9][13].

Group 1 - Citi forecasts that gold prices will decline due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and improving global economic growth prospects, expecting prices to fall to $2500 to $2700 per ounce by the second half of 2026 [1] - In the third quarter, gold prices are expected to stabilize between $3100 and $3500 per ounce, with the supply-demand gap in the gold market peaking during this period [1] - Citi has shifted its outlook from bullish to bearish on gold, advising mining companies to take protective measures against potential price declines [1] Group 2 - Citi anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement three rate cuts in 2025, which could impact gold prices as they typically have an inverse relationship with interest rates [3] - Other institutions remain optimistic about gold, with Morgan Stanley predicting prices could reach $6000 per ounce by 2029, requiring an 80% increase from current levels [4] - Goldman Sachs projects that gold prices will rise to $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025, with Bank of America also forecasting prices to exceed $4000 per ounce by the same time [4]

Group 1 - The central bank of Indonesia maintains the global economic growth outlook at 3% for 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the precious metals market, particularly gold, is influenced by multiple factors including a weakening dollar, changing risk sentiment, and developments in US-China trade negotiations [1] Group 1: Dollar Weakness and Gold Prices - The weakening of the dollar index has created favorable conditions for a rebound in gold prices, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies [3] - Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has further exacerbated the dollar's weakness, leading investors to reassess the value of dollar-denominated assets and shift some funds towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold [3] - Concerns about global economic growth, driven by trade tensions and geopolitical issues, have put additional pressure on the dollar, supporting the rise in gold prices [3] Group 2: Risk Sentiment and Gold Demand - The escalation of geopolitical risks has increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold being favored in the current environment due to ongoing conflicts such as the Ukraine-Russia situation [4] - Developments in US-China trade relations significantly impact risk sentiment; easing tensions can lead to a shift towards riskier assets, while heightened trade friction tends to boost gold prices due to increased safe-haven demand [4] - Central banks around the world are increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a structural change in demand for safe-haven assets, which provides a stable foundation for the gold market and supports long-term price stability [4]

Core Insights - Geopolitical factors, trade tensions, and the unpredictability of U.S. government policies are determining the global environment [1] - These factors have a decisive impact on global economic growth prospects and pose risks to the stability of the financial system [1] - Higher tariffs are expected to primarily affect the United States, with lesser impacts on the Eurozone and Spain [1]

Core Viewpoint - The comments from European Central Bank Governing Council member Escrivá highlight that various factors are critically influencing the global economic growth outlook and pose risks to the stability of the financial system [1] Group 1 - The global economic growth outlook is significantly affected by multiple factors [1] - Financial system stability is at risk due to these influencing factors [1]