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鹰派预期淡化+美元走弱,铂钯显著上行
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2026-02-10 01:41
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The dovish remarks of the San Francisco Fed President eased market expectations of the Fed's hawkish policy, leading to a weaker dollar and a rise in the precious metals sector. As of February 9, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 545.05 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 10.58%, and the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 438.15 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 7.59% [2]. - The price of platinum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - to - long term due to a weaker dollar and positive macro - expectations. The report suggests seizing opportunities to go long on platinum and short on palladium [2]. - The price of palladium is also expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - to - long term, supported by short - term spot shortages and positive macro - environment [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Price Performance**: As of February 9, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 545.05 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 10.58% [2]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the market is in a wide - range volatile consolidation phase due to factors such as sanctions on Russian platinum - group metals, geopolitical issues, and Fed rate - cut expectations. In the long term, the long - term weakening trend of the US dollar credit is conducive to the release of price elasticity. The platinum - to - palladium ratio has fallen to a relatively low level this week, and it is recommended to consider long - platinum and short - palladium opportunities [2]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish. The supply - demand fundamentals are healthy, and the macro - expectations are positive [2]. Palladium - **Price Performance**: As of February 9, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 438.15 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 7.59% [2]. - **Main Logic**: There is uncertainty on the supply side, with the US import investigation of Russian unforged palladium pending and Europe considering new sanctions on Russian palladium. The palladium lease rate has been rising, and the spot shortage supports the price. On the demand side, there is still structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand is expected to be loose, the short - term spot shortage and Fed rate - cut expectations provide clear support for the price [3]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish. Supported by short - term spot shortages and a positive macro - environment [3]. Index Information - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2374.89, up 0.70%; the commodity 20 index was 2710.51, up 0.96%; the industrial products index was 2278.80, up 0.21%; the PPI commodity index was 1404.35, up 0.58% [49]. - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on February 9, 2026, was 2681.11, with a daily increase of 1.12%, a 5 - day increase of 0.10%, a 1 - month decrease of 5.82%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.18% [50].
金价银价再创历史新高
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-15 15:41
Core Viewpoint - The international gold and silver prices have reached historical highs due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and increasing debt pressures in developed economies, leading investors to shift from bonds to gold and silver [1] Group 1: Gold Market - As of the close, the February gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange reached $4,635.70 per ounce, marking an increase of 0.80% [1] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainties and economic pressures [1] Group 2: Silver Market - Silver futures prices have also surged, breaking the $90 per ounce mark for the first time, with the March silver futures closing at $91.385 per ounce, reflecting a significant increase of 5.85% [1] - Analysts indicate that the primary driver for the increase in silver prices is the current shortage of physical silver, which is unlikely to be resolved in the short term [1] - The rising number of open contracts on the New York Commodity Exchange suggests a strong demand from buyers looking to acquire physical silver through delivery [1]