1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term volatile rating for the glass industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Although the macro sentiment has slightly improved, the downstream procurement sentiment of glass remains poor. It is expected that the price may maintain volatile operation in the short term, but attention should be paid to the possibility of weakening after the daily line breaks below the 20 - day moving average. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and the cold repair of production lines [4] 3. Summary of Each Section Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The glass main contract opened and moved higher, with an intraday volatile and strong trend. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band showed a narrowing trumpet shape, indicating short - term volatility. The intraday pressure was near the 60 - day moving average of the daily line, and the support was near the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 870,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 12,255 lots. The intraday high was 1125, the low was 1084, and the closing price was 1103, up 14 yuan/ton or 1.29% compared with the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: In North China, the market price was flexible and generally weak; in East China, it was stable with poor downstream purchasing enthusiasm, mainly for rigid demand; in Central and South China, it was stable, and downstream purchases were mainly for rigid demand [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China was 1020, and the basis was - 83 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, the total output of float glass this week was 1.0523 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.28%. The industry's average operating rate was 71.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58%; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.14%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49%. There was no production line water release or ignition this week. One previously ignited production line started to produce glass, and combined with the load recovery of some production lines, the daily output increased slightly [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.505 million weight boxes or 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89%. The inventory days were 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous period. The overall inventory of glass enterprises is currently in a downward trend, and there is still an expected decline in the future [2] - **Demand**: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the order trends of deep - processing in the north and south regions are diverging, with the executable days of southern orders slightly increasing and some orders able to last for more than 20 days, while orders in the northern and central regions are declining [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 164.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22.00 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 69.01 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.82 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was 3.93 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.71 yuan/ton [3] Main Logic Summary - The long - term losses of glass production lines have accelerated the capacity clearance of some enterprises, and there are still plans to cold - repair some production lines before the Spring Festival, so there is an expectation of further contraction on the supply side. However, real - estate development investment and capital availability have continued to decline year - on - year, and the completion and new construction are weak, with no improvement in real - estate demand [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term investment rating for the glass industry as oscillating weakly in the short term [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Glass is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. The supply has a contraction expectation, but real - estate demand remains weak. The supply has slightly rebounded, and the cost support has weakened, causing the short - term disk to decline. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The glass main contract oscillated lower during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band showed a narrowing trumpet shape, breaking below the middle - rail line and entering the weak area. The intraday pressure is near the 60 - day moving average, and support is near the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 138,000 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 91,374 lots. The intraday high was 1144, the low was 1096, and the closing price was 1096, down 35 yuan/ton or 3.09% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: Transactions were okay, and some manufacturers held firm on prices. In North China, manufacturers' shipments were flexible, the price of large - size glass in Shahe decreased, and the transaction center in the Beijing - Tianjin - Tangshan area moved up. In East China, downstream buyers made purchases based on rigid demand, and prices in Jiangsu continued to rise. In Central China, there were differences in transactions, and market prices were stable. In South China, enterprises made appropriate purchases, and overall trading was good [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China was 1020, and the basis was - 76 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 8, the daily average output of national float glass was 150,100 tons, a decrease of 0.96% compared to the 1st. The national float glass output was 1.0592 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. The industry's average start - up rate was 71.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.63%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.03% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.348 million heavy boxes or 2.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.04%. The inventory days in terms of conversion was 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days compared to the previous period. Currently, the overall inventory of glass enterprises is on a declining trend, and there are still expectations of further decline in the future [2] - **Demand**: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Engineering orders are gradually ending, and the order execution days are decreasing, currently concentrated between 10 - 15 days. Home - decoration orders are mainly low - value scattered orders [2][3] Main Logic Summary - Supply - side production lines using natural gas as fuel have long - term losses, and those using coal and petroleum coke are also in a loss state, accelerating the clearance of some enterprises' production capacity, with a supply contraction expectation. However, real - estate development investment and capital availability continue to decline year - on - year, and completion and new construction are weak, with no improvement in real - estate demand. Today, a glass production line was restarted, supply slightly rebounded, and coal price declined, weakening the cost support for glass. The short - term disk oscillated and declined, and attention should be paid to the support trend near the 20 - day K - line moving average [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In September, the glass market achieved a phased recovery supported by sentiment and rigid demand, with the price center shifting upwards. However, considering factors such as unresolved supply pressure, high mid - stream social inventory, and tight downstream capital, the price lacks the impetus for continuous growth, and the subsequent trend is expected to be mainly volatile consolidation [7][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In September, the price of the glass main contract SA2601 ranged from 1,118 to 1,282 yuan/ton. As of the afternoon close on September 30, 2025, the glass futures main contract FG2601 rose 37 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 3.15%, closing at 1,210 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Key Data Trends - In September, the national average price of the float glass market was 1,173 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.1%. The average daily output was 160,300 tons, an increase of 760 tons from the previous period, a rise of 0.48%. The average capacity utilization rate was 80.16%, an increase of 0.38 percentage points from the previous period [6]. - In September, the inventory of float glass sample enterprises showed a continuous downward trend. By the end of the month, the total inventory was 59.3548 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2116 million heavy boxes, a decline of 5.13%; a year - on - year decrease of 13.5236 million heavy boxes, a decline of 18.56% [6]. 3.3 Spot Price Trends - In September, the float glass market was weak first and then strong. The national average price of the float glass market was 1,173 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.1%. Different regions had different price trends, with some showing small declines and some showing increases [8]. 3.4 Cost - Profit Analysis - In September, the profits of float glass and upstream soda ash both declined, with a larger decline in soda ash profits, mainly due to the fall in soda ash spot prices and the rise in coal prices, leading to a decrease in industry profits [13]. - In September, the prices of float glass with different fuels generally rose, but the prices of coal and petroleum coke in fuels also increased significantly, resulting in an increase in the cost and a decrease in the profit of glass using coal - gas and petroleum coke as fuels. The price of pipeline natural gas was relatively stable, and the loss of natural - gas glass decreased [14]. 3.5 Supply - Side Situation - In September, although the monthly output of float glass decreased, the average daily output increased, and the capacity utilization rate increased. The average daily output was 160,300 tons, an increase of 760 tons from the previous period, a rise of 0.48%. The average capacity utilization rate was 80.16%, an increase of 0.38 percentage points from the previous period [18]. - In September, the overhaul loss of float glass was 1.1906 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 63,300 tons, a decline of 5.05%, and a year - on - year increase of 107,800 tons, an increase of 9.95%. From January to September, the cumulative overhaul loss was 11.601 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9992 million tons, an increase of 34.87% [23]. 3.6 Demand - Side Situation - In September, the supply - demand balance showed a pattern of supply less than demand, with a negative supply - demand difference, providing relatively strong support for the market. The demand increment within the month was general, mainly manifested as rigid demand procurement by downstream customers and procurement and stockpiling by spot - futures traders and dealers driven by market sentiment [26]. 3.7 Inventory - Side Situation - In September, the inventory of float glass sample enterprises showed a continuous downward trend. By the end of the month, the total inventory was 59.3548 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2116 million heavy boxes, a decline of 5.13%; a year - on - year decrease of 13.5236 million heavy boxes, a decline of 18.56% [29]. 3.8 Import - Export Data - In August, the import volume of float glass was 23,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,400 tons, a decline of 9.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 8,900 tons, an increase of 60.58%. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 161,100 tons, an increase of 12,700 tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 8.59% [35]. - In August, the export volume of float glass was 110,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,200 tons, an increase of 14.83%, and a year - on - year increase of 60,400 tons, an increase of 119.65%. From January to August, the cumulative export volume was 655,800 tons, an increase of 359,100 tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 120.99% [37]. 3.9 Market Outlook and Operation Suggestions - In September, the float glass market showed an operating characteristic of "first suppressing then rising, and intensifying supply - demand game". The market was relatively dull in the first half - month and became more active in the second half - month [41]. - In terms of supply - demand structure, the supply side has potential pressure, the demand side has limited growth, and the cost side has significant differences in profit among different processes [41]. - The follow - up price trend is expected to be mainly volatile consolidation [42]. - Operation suggestions: For single - side trading, consider lightly laying out long positions at low prices, but be aware of the supply pressure and high inventory limiting the upside space; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, consider buying put options to hedge the risk of price corrections [43].