1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term volatile rating for the glass industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Although the macro sentiment has slightly improved, the downstream procurement sentiment of glass remains poor. It is expected that the price may maintain volatile operation in the short term, but attention should be paid to the possibility of weakening after the daily line breaks below the 20 - day moving average. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and the cold repair of production lines [4] 3. Summary of Each Section Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The glass main contract opened and moved higher, with an intraday volatile and strong trend. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band showed a narrowing trumpet shape, indicating short - term volatility. The intraday pressure was near the 60 - day moving average of the daily line, and the support was near the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 870,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 12,255 lots. The intraday high was 1125, the low was 1084, and the closing price was 1103, up 14 yuan/ton or 1.29% compared with the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: In North China, the market price was flexible and generally weak; in East China, it was stable with poor downstream purchasing enthusiasm, mainly for rigid demand; in Central and South China, it was stable, and downstream purchases were mainly for rigid demand [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China was 1020, and the basis was - 83 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, the total output of float glass this week was 1.0523 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.28%. The industry's average operating rate was 71.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58%; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.14%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49%. There was no production line water release or ignition this week. One previously ignited production line started to produce glass, and combined with the load recovery of some production lines, the daily output increased slightly [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.505 million weight boxes or 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89%. The inventory days were 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous period. The overall inventory of glass enterprises is currently in a downward trend, and there is still an expected decline in the future [2] - **Demand**: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the order trends of deep - processing in the north and south regions are diverging, with the executable days of southern orders slightly increasing and some orders able to last for more than 20 days, while orders in the northern and central regions are declining [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 164.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22.00 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 69.01 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.82 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was 3.93 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.71 yuan/ton [3] Main Logic Summary - The long - term losses of glass production lines have accelerated the capacity clearance of some enterprises, and there are still plans to cold - repair some production lines before the Spring Festival, so there is an expectation of further contraction on the supply side. However, real - estate development investment and capital availability have continued to decline year - on - year, and the completion and new construction are weak, with no improvement in real - estate demand [4]

Group 1 - The main contract for glass futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 996.00 yuan, with a current price of 988.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.92% [1] - New Century Futures indicates that the glass market lacks upward momentum due to weak fundamentals, emphasizing the need to monitor the recovery of downstream demand [2] - New Lake Futures views the glass market as a short-selling opportunity, noting that the current inventory levels remain high and demand is weak, particularly as the market transitions from peak to off-peak season [3] Group 2 - The float glass industry operates at a capacity utilization rate of 78.62%, with a daily production of 15.75 million tons, marking a five-week high [2] - National float glass inventory decreased by 0.46% to 67.769 million heavy boxes, marking the first decline from a two-month high [2] - The real estate sector is still in an adjustment phase, with housing completion area down by 28.2%, leading to a challenging environment for glass demand recovery [2]