1. Report Investment Ratings - Glass: Short - term shock, long - term shock and weakening [2] - Soda Ash: Medium - term shock and weakening, be cautious when shorting at low levels [3] 2. Core Views - **Glass**: Currently in a shock market. Short - term support lies in relatively low valuation and high positions, which may lead to short - covering in the near - month contracts. There are concerns about further production cuts in the off - season. However, factors such as forward premium, inventory pressure, and off - season effects will suppress the price. The market will likely fluctuate between low near - month valuation and lack of upward drivers. [2] - **Soda Ash**: The core drivers for the decline are oversupply, forward premium pressure in futures, and potential demand pressure from downstream production cuts. Either large - scale production cuts in soda ash or continuous improvement in the glass industry can drive the market. Although the current start - up rate is declining, the downward driving force is weakening, but the future delivery pressure cannot be underestimated. There is limited room for a continuous sharp decline at the current price level. [3][4] 3. Summary of Each Section Glass Supply - As of December 18, 2025, there are 296 glass production lines (200,000 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 219 in production and 77 cold - repaired or shut down. The开工 rate of the float glass industry is 73.99%, and the capacity utilization rate is 77.48%. The daily output is 155,000 tons, unchanged from December 11. [2] - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired lines is 17,730 tons/day; the total daily melting volume of ignited lines is 15,010 tons/day; the total potential daily melting volume of new ignited lines is 14,190 tons/day; the total potential daily melting volume of old line restarts is 9,530 tons; the total potential daily melting volume of cold - repaired lines is 9,100 tons/day. [9][10][11] - Current in - production capacity is about 155,000 tons/day, and the peak capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons/day. [16] Glass Demand - As of December 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. The order situation varies by region. [2] Glass Inventory - As of December 18, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 58.558 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 331,000 heavy boxes (0.57%) and a year - on - year increase of 25.73%. The inventory days are 26.5 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous period. [2] Glass Price and Profit - Some manufacturers have reduced prices by 20 - 40 yuan/ton. The price in Shahe is about 1,010 - 1,040 yuan/ton; in central China's Hubei region, it is 1,040 - 1,100 yuan/ton; in eastern China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the price of some large manufacturers is 1,180 - 1,240 yuan/ton. [20][24] - The profit of using petroleum coke as fuel is about 0 yuan/ton, and the profits of using natural gas and coal as fuel are about - 181 yuan/ton and - 7 yuan/ton respectively. [28][32] Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - Recently, the market transaction has weakened, and this situation is expected to continue. As of this Thursday, the mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 11 - 12 yuan/square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 2.13% (with the decline narrowing by 1.95 percentage points compared to last week); the mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated panels is 18 - 19 yuan/square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 1.33% (with the decline narrowing by 1.27 percentage points compared to last week). [46][48] Photovoltaic Glass Capacity and Inventory - As of this Thursday, there are 402 domestic photovoltaic glass production lines in operation, with a total daily melting volume of 87,940 tons/day, unchanged from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 7.32%. The sample inventory days are about 35.92 days, a month - on - month increase of 8.65% (with the increase expanding by 2.24 percentage points compared to last week). [50][51][57] Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash production devices have undergone phased maintenance and load reduction this week. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash is 82.74%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.61%. This week, the domestic soda ash output is 721,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons (1.91%). [3] - There are plans for some enterprises' future maintenance, such as Shandong Haihua's new line planning to conduct maintenance for about a week in the second half of the month. [61] Soda Ash Inventory - As of December 18, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.4993 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons (0.33%), and a year - on - year decrease of 58,100 tons (3.73%). Among them, the inventory of light soda ash is 727,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,800 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash is 771,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18,800 tons. [4][69] Soda Ash Price and Profit - The nominal price in Shahe and Hubei is about 1,100 - 1,300 yuan/ton. The factory ex - factory price has not been adjusted. [76][80] - The joint - alkali profit in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 41 yuan/ton, and the ammonia - alkali profit in North China is - 66 yuan/ton. [85]

Core Viewpoint - The glass market is experiencing stable spot prices, but the overall supply-demand balance remains loose, indicating a potential downward price trend in the long term [1][2]. Supply Summary - As of now, there are 284 float glass production lines in the country, with 216 lines in operation, and a daily melting capacity of 154,555 tons, which is a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous period. The industry's capacity utilization rate stands at 79.41% [1]. - There is an expectation of cold repairs for production lines in December, which may reduce short-term supply pressure and lead to a rebound in futures prices. Additionally, unexpected cold repairs in Hubei have raised concerns about sustained supply contraction, prompting short sellers to exit, resulting in a rapid rebound in futures prices [1]. Demand Summary - According to institutional research, downstream processing plants report overall weak demand this year, with a decline in glass orders and limited engineering orders. However, home decoration and export orders are performing relatively well, despite an overall decrease in total orders. Many companies are facing operational difficulties, with only large enterprises maintaining slim profits while most are in a loss-making state [1]. - The poor performance of the real estate market, reflected in declining new construction, construction area, and completion area data, directly contributes to weak glass demand. Although there are expectations for policies like urban renewal and ensuring project delivery, the impact on glass demand is expected to take time, leading to a cautious outlook on future demand [1]. Inventory Summary - High inventory levels are a key factor hindering the stabilization and rebound of glass futures prices. Current inventory levels at float glass factories are significantly higher than the same period last year, with midstream inventories in major production areas also remaining elevated. Therefore, without a noticeable improvement in demand, the substantial inventory pressure will continue to suppress glass prices [2]. - In summary, while short-term supply contraction may positively influence glass prices, the overall supply-demand balance remains loose, limiting upward price potential. Key variables to monitor in the medium to long term include whether real estate completion data stabilizes and the speed of capacity clearance. If industry losses continue to expand, leading to more production line cold repairs, a fundamental shift in the supply-demand balance may occur. Until then, glass futures prices are likely to maintain a weak pattern of "range oscillation with a downward shift" [2].