www.mkqh.com 玻璃供需格局好转，碱厂检修意愿增加 TO DISCOVER VALUE TO CREATE VALUE TO SHARE VALUE 投研服务中心——符佳敏 2026.01.06 Maike 迈科期货 @2019 Maike Futures 玻璃 供需格局好转，关注中下游补库情况 - 供应端, 当前玻璃价格下行, 玻璃厂利润走弱, 叠加玻璃厂库存偏高, 引发玻 璃厂不断冷修，当前玻璃厂日熔量为15.15万吨，后续重点关注玻璃供应情况。 在供应走弱情况下，玻璃供需格局有所好转，这可能对价格有一定支撑。需求 端,年底赶工需求环比走弱,北方地区销售压力明显,厂家降价销售。地产依 旧弱势运行导致玻璃需求难有较大向上空间，下游深加工订单天数同比依旧较 弱，玻璃表需处于历年同期偏低水平。库存端，12月份需求虽然较差，但在 供应下行情况下,玻璃厂库存压力有所缓解,库存去化;中游贸易商库存处于 高位水平，后续补库力度可能有限。当前玻璃供应走弱，关注是否能带动中下 游补库,这可能对玻璃价格短期有一定支撑。 - 结论:玻璃震荡偏多思路对待，注意控制风险。玻璃指数参考1010-1150。 检修意愿增加短期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The glass market is experiencing stable spot prices, but the overall supply-demand balance remains loose, indicating a potential downward price trend in the long term [1][2]. Supply Summary - As of now, there are 284 float glass production lines in the country, with 216 lines in operation, and a daily melting capacity of 154,555 tons, which is a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous period. The industry's capacity utilization rate stands at 79.41% [1]. - There is an expectation of cold repairs for production lines in December, which may reduce short-term supply pressure and lead to a rebound in futures prices. Additionally, unexpected cold repairs in Hubei have raised concerns about sustained supply contraction, prompting short sellers to exit, resulting in a rapid rebound in futures prices [1]. Demand Summary - According to institutional research, downstream processing plants report overall weak demand this year, with a decline in glass orders and limited engineering orders. However, home decoration and export orders are performing relatively well, despite an overall decrease in total orders. Many companies are facing operational difficulties, with only large enterprises maintaining slim profits while most are in a loss-making state [1]. - The poor performance of the real estate market, reflected in declining new construction, construction area, and completion area data, directly contributes to weak glass demand. Although there are expectations for policies like urban renewal and ensuring project delivery, the impact on glass demand is expected to take time, leading to a cautious outlook on future demand [1]. Inventory Summary - High inventory levels are a key factor hindering the stabilization and rebound of glass futures prices. Current inventory levels at float glass factories are significantly higher than the same period last year, with midstream inventories in major production areas also remaining elevated. Therefore, without a noticeable improvement in demand, the substantial inventory pressure will continue to suppress glass prices [2]. - In summary, while short-term supply contraction may positively influence glass prices, the overall supply-demand balance remains loose, limiting upward price potential. Key variables to monitor in the medium to long term include whether real estate completion data stabilizes and the speed of capacity clearance. If industry losses continue to expand, leading to more production line cold repairs, a fundamental shift in the supply-demand balance may occur. Until then, glass futures prices are likely to maintain a weak pattern of "range oscillation with a downward shift" [2].

Group 1 - The glass futures contracts are maintaining a weak trend due to high inventory levels and weak demand, despite some positive factors such as seasonal demand and policy expectations [1][3] - The supply side is experiencing mixed signals, with disruptions expected from the coal-to-gas transition in the Shahe region and winter pollution control measures [3] - The market is currently in a state of weak balance to slight oversupply, and there is caution against being overly optimistic about price increases [1][3] Group 2 - According to Everbright Futures, the glass market is unlikely to see sustained price increases without significant improvements in the fundamentals [3] - The demand side may see some support from pre-holiday stocking and year-end construction, but the recovery in the real estate sector remains slow [3] - Chuangyuan Futures notes that both bullish and bearish factors are present, with high midstream inventory continuing to suppress prices despite potential cost increases from policy changes [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soda Ash**: Last week, the operating rate and production of soda ash enterprises continued to rise, and the market production - sales rate increased month - on - month. However, the inventory continued to accumulate. The current supply - demand pattern of soda ash is weak, with no improvement in downstream demand, continuous increases in supply and inventory, and a gradual decline in spot prices. The subsequent pattern of increasing supply and weak demand will continue to suppress market confidence. Although the short - term futures price rebounded at a low level due to macro - disturbances, the rebound momentum is insufficient under the weak reality. It is recommended to trade with a short - bias on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. - **Glass**: Last week, due to one production line being shut down for water discharge and one for hot repair, and one previously ignited production line starting to produce glass, the weekly melting volume increased slightly, and the manufacturer's inventory increased slightly month - on - month. Currently, glass supply fluctuates within a narrow range at a low level. Entering the off - season of demand, downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing, and manufacturers' inventory remains high. Enterprises reduce prices to promote sales. Short - term demand is seasonally weak, and high inventory puts pressure on the market. The futures valuation is low and maintains a low - level shock. Attention should be paid to the cold repair of production lines after losses deepen. It is recommended to refer to the 950 - 1050 range for short - term shock trading, sell on rebounds, or sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Views and Strategies Soda Ash - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7267 million tons, including 812,600 tons of light soda ash and 914,100 tons of heavy soda ash. Enterprises' shipment slowed down, new orders were average, and some enterprises' inventory increased [8]. - **Supply**: As of June 19, 2025, domestic soda ash production was 754,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,600 tons or 1.97%. Among them, light soda ash production was 338,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 416,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,600 tons. There were few maintenance enterprises, and the load of individual enterprises fluctuated, resulting in increased supply [8]. - **Demand**: As of June 19, 2025, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 714,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 94.65%, a month - on - month increase of 2.66 percentage points. Soda ash production increased slightly. Enterprises mainly shipped pre - orders, and new order reception was average. The production - sales rate only improved slightly [8]. - **View and Strategy**: The current supply - demand pattern is weak. It is recommended to trade with a short - bias on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. Glass - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.887 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 202,000 weight boxes or 0.29%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.82%. The inventory days were 30.8 days, the same as the previous period [9]. - **Supply**: From June 13 - 19, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.0935 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.88% [9]. - **Profit**: From June 13 - 19, 2025, according to the production cost calculation model of Longzhong Information, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 195.11 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.28 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was 83.70 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.98 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was - 108.47 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20.00 yuan/ton [9]. - **Demand**: As of June 16, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.83 days, a month - on - month decrease of 5.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.48% [9]. - **View and Strategy**: Currently, supply is at a low level with narrow fluctuations, and demand is seasonally weak. It is recommended to refer to the 950 - 1050 range for short - term shock trading, sell on rebounds, or sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - **Soda Ash**: The upstream of the soda ash industry chain includes natural alkali mines, raw salt, synthetic ammonia, raw salt, limestone, and ammonium chloride. The product is soda ash (light soda ash/heavy soda ash), and the downstream includes agricultural fertilizers, glass, and daily detergents [11]. - **Flat Glass**: The upstream of the flat glass industry chain includes raw materials such as quartz sand, limestone, soda ash, and additives, as well as fuels like coal - made gas (24%), natural gas (40%), and petroleum coke (16%). The mid - stream products include float glass and other types. The downstream is mainly used in real estate (75%), automobiles (18%), and electronic appliances (7%) [12]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - **Glass**: As of June 20, 2025, the closing price of the FG main contract was 1007, and the North China basis was 133 yuan/ton. The FG9 - 1 spread closed at - 58 yuan/ton [16][20]. - **Soda Ash**: As of June 20, 2025, the closing price of the SA main contract was 11573, and the North China basis was 227 yuan/ton. The SA9 - 1 spread closed at 11 yuan/ton [19][20]. 3.4 Inventory - **Glass**: As of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.887 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 202,000 weight boxes or 0.29%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.82%. The inventory days were 30.8 days, the same as the previous period. There were different inventory changes in different regions [23]. - **Soda Ash**: As of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7267 million tons, including 812,600 tons of light soda ash and 914,100 tons of heavy soda ash. Enterprises' shipment slowed down, new orders were average, and some enterprises' inventory increased [32]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Glass**: From June 13 - 19, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.0935 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.88% [36]. - **Soda Ash**: As of June 19, 2025, domestic soda ash production was 754,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,600 tons or 1.97%. Among them, light soda ash production was 338,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 416,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,600 tons. There were few maintenance enterprises, and the load of individual enterprises fluctuated, resulting in increased supply [45]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Glass**: As of June 16, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.83 days, a month - on - month decrease of 5.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.48%. Since June, deep - processing orders in many places have decreased [52]. - **Soda Ash**: As of June 19, 2025, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 714,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 94.65%, a month - on - month increase of 2.66 percentage points. Soda ash production increased slightly. Enterprises mainly shipped pre - orders, and new order reception was average. The production - sales rate only improved slightly [62].

Core Viewpoint - Glass futures have shown a slight upward trend, with the main contract reaching a peak of 1021.00 yuan and closing at 1007.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.31% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - New Century Futures indicates that glass prices are experiencing low-level fluctuations, with no substantial positive factors in the fundamentals. The current weak trend in glass spot prices is expected to continue, with daily melting volume dropping below 156,000 tons in the short term due to both production line ignition and shutdown [2] - Hualian Futures notes that the glass market is in a demand off-season, with companies reducing prices to stimulate sales. Inventory levels are slightly fluctuating at high levels, and the short-term supply-demand balance is unlikely to improve, leading to continued downward pressure on glass prices [3] - Zhonghui Futures highlights a significant decline in real estate completions from January to May, with a 5% decrease in downstream processing orders in mid-June compared to historical levels. The overall glass demand is expected to remain weak, with continued inventory accumulation upstream and a lack of significant drivers for price recovery [3] Group 2: Production and Inventory - New Century Futures reports that the total inventory of float glass among sample enterprises remains high compared to the same period in the past two years, indicating significant inventory pressure [2] - Hualian Futures mentions that one production line has been shut down, leading to a slight decrease in operating rates, while inventory levels have increased slightly in most regions, except for slight reductions in Central and Eastern China [3] - Zhonghui Futures states that the current production and daily melting volume are experiencing low-level fluctuations, with costs decreasing and market prices below production costs, indicating a low valuation despite weak fundamentals [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the current relatively low Treasury bond yields, China's economic recovery trend, and the possibility of tariff adjustments, it is recommended to remain cautious [6]. - Despite the impact of tariffs on the domestic economic recovery rhythm and the increase in global recession risks, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [12]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and for iron ore, they can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [14][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. - For ferroalloys, consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [22]. - Consider going long on the main contracts of crude oil and fuel oil [25][27]. - Synthetic rubber and natural rubber are expected to be in a weak and volatile state, PVC is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state, and urea requires attention to export changes [28][29][34]. - For PX, PTA, and other chemical products, consider range - bound operations [38][39]. - For ethylene glycol, short - term bottom - oscillating is expected, and cautious participation is recommended [41]. - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, they are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and cautious participation is recommended [42][43]. - For soda ash, short - term disk adjustments may occur, and short - sellers at low levels should adjust their positions [46]. - For glass, the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. - For caustic soda, pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48]. - For pulp, the market is in a weak pattern [51]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. - Consider going long on the main contract of Shanghai copper, and have a bearish and oscillating view on tin [56][57]. - Nickel is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to continue to decline in price [58][59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the - money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [61]. - Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread, and consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [63][65]. - For cotton, sugar, apples, and other agricultural products, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [67][71][74]. - For live pigs, consider waiting and seeing, and for eggs, consider reverse - spread opportunities [77][79]. - For corn and corn starch, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [81]. - For logs, the market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [84]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 405 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on May 6, with a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan. The Caixin China Services PMI in April was 50.7, and the comprehensive PMI output index declined, indicating a slowdown in the expansion of domestic enterprise production and operation activities [5]. - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering various factors, it is recommended to remain cautious, and the volatility is expected to increase [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The market is worried about the decline in corporate profit growth due to tariffs, but domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The complex global trade and financial environment, the increase in the risk of global recession due to tariffs, and the possible passive easing of monetary policies are expected to drive up the price of gold. It is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [11][12][13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses the price of rebar, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high, and investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. The futures may continue to decline, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell. The supply of ferroalloys is still high, and the demand is weak. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed. Consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [21][22]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply due to OPEC's plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The increase in production may lead to price fluctuations, but factors such as Sino - US talks are favorable for crude oil. Consider going long on the main contract [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and fell sharply. The reduction in Singapore's inventory may support the price, and the relaxation of US sanctions on Russia may be negative for high - sulfur fuel oil. Consider going long on the main contract [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. The supply pressure continues, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost side rebounds. It is expected to oscillate weakly [28][29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [29][30]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The supply pressure eases marginally, the demand recovers weakly, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [31][34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The approach of the summer corn fertilizer preparation period and potential Indian tenders may affect the price. Pay attention to export policy changes [35][36]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. PX devices are under centralized maintenance, and the downstream demand has improved. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [37][38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply is affected by device maintenance, the demand is affected by tariffs, and the cost side is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply is expected to increase, the inventory is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and cautious participation is recommended [40][41]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is weak, and it is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate. Cautious participation is recommended [42]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The cost support is insufficient, the supply is increasing, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate [43]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. In May, device maintenance will be concentrated, which may lead to short - term disk adjustments. The supply is high, and the inventory is stable [44][46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production line is at a low level, the demand is weak, and the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. Some devices will enter the maintenance period in May, and the demand is limited. Pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48][49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The inventory is accumulating, the supply is increasing, and the market is in a weak pattern [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and it is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward. Although the ICSG expects a supply surplus of refined copper, Sino - US talks may boost demand. Consider going long on the main contract [53][55][56]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply shortage may ease with the resumption of mines, and the downstream demand is affected by Sino - US trade. A bearish and oscillating view is taken [57]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The cost support is strong, but the demand may weaken in the off - season. It is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern [58]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, industrial silicon and polysilicon futures continued to decline. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, the supply decline is limited, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure [59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, the demand for soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. Adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [60][61]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices fell. The market is concerned about the May production outlook, and the inventory may increase. Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread [62][63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices fell. The import of rapeseed in the EU has increased, and China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. Consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [64][65]. Cotton - The domestic cotton market showed a volatile trend. The planting area in China has increased, and the demand is affected by tariffs. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [66][67][68]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market showed a volatile trend. Brazil is entering the production acceleration period, and the sugar production in India is lower than expected. The domestic inventory is neutral, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [69][71][72]. Apples - The domestic apple futures showed a sharp rise and then a fall. The cold - storage inventory is low, and the new - year production increase is expected. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [73][74][75]. Live Pigs - The price of live pigs showed a slight decline. The supply may increase after the holiday, and the demand will enter a short - term off - season. Consider waiting and seeing [76][77]. Eggs - The price of eggs fell. The supply is expected to increase in May, and the pre - holiday stocking may provide support. Consider reverse - spread opportunities [78][79]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn futures closed flat, and corn starch futures rose. The supply of corn is expected to be in a surplus state, and the demand is weak. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [80][81]. Logs - On the previous trading day, log futures rose. The supply is affected by holidays and weather, and the demand is weak. The market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [82][83][84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, the float glass market faced dual pressures of "weak reality + weak expectation", with the price center continuing to decline. Macroscopically, there was no clear incremental policy information from the Politburo meeting in April, and the Sino - US trade war was at a stalemate. Although market risk appetite had somewhat recovered, tariff concerns remained, and the macro - sentiment was still cautious. Fundamentally, glass production and daily melting volume remained stable at a low level, with limited expectation of supply reduction. After the cost decreased, manufacturers' cold - repair plans slowed down, and the supply side could not effectively support the glass. Demand showed seasonal improvement, but the number of days of downstream deep - processing orders was significantly lower than the same period. The decline of the real estate industry narrowed but was still in the negative range, and the market demand expectation was weak. Upstream glass enterprises re - accumulated inventory, and under the pressure of medium - level inventory, the rebound of the futures market was suppressed to some extent. In the medium - to - long term, the annual supply of glass showed a downward trend, and demand had periodic increases. Prices would fluctuate significantly with changes in fundamentals. It was recommended that the industry seize the opportunity of high - level hedging. Attention should be paid to global market risk appetite, downstream production and sales, and domestic hedging policies [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: As of April 29, the FG2509 contract closed at 1,234 yuan/ton, with a monthly change of - 9.4% [5]. - **Spot Market**: As of April 29, the monthly change range of spot prices was between - 2.3% and + 3.2% [5]. - **Basis**: In April, spot glass quotes showed regional differentiation, with the national average price increasing by 10 yuan/ton. The futures market was weak, driving the basis to strengthen. The basis of the main FG509 contract in Hubei was 68, and the basis rate was 5.6% [8]. - **Spread**: The spread of the FG05 - 09 contract was - 44 points, with the near - month contract weaker than the far - month contract. The spread of the FG09 - 01 contract was - 50 points, showing a pattern of near - month weakness and far - month strength. The glass showed a contango structure, with the near - month contract at par, and the reality was weak but the space was limited. The spread between soda ash and the glass 09 contract was 242 points, the same as on March 20 and 50 points wider than on April 20 [11][13]. 3.2 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization**: In April, the capacity utilization rate decreased and was lower than the same period last year. The current start - up rate of the float glass industry was 75.42%, unchanged from the previous month and - 9.07% year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate was 78.41%, - 0.62% month - on - month and - 7.327% year - on - year [16]. - **Daily Melting Volume**: Currently, the daily melting volume of float glass was 157,200 tons, - 0.79% month - on - month and - 9.8% year - on - year. The monthly average daily output was 158,200 tons. It was estimated that the glass output in April was 4.74 million tons ( - 3.1% month - on - month and - 9.3% year - on - year) [19]. - **Cold - repair Loss**: In April, the daily average loss of float glass was 42,400 tons. It was estimated that the maintenance loss in April was 1.27 million tons ( - 3.6% month - on - month and + 46.8% year - on - year) [21]. 3.3 Demand Side - **Deep - processing Orders**: As of mid - April, the average number of days of orders for national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, + 13.4% month - on - month and - 17.7% year - on - year. The performance of deep - processing orders varied. Some enterprises reported no obvious improvement compared with March and were lower than the same period last year. Currently, scattered orders maintained production, while some orders increased, especially in South China, Northeast China, Northwest China, and Southwest China, with little change in East China, North China, and Central China. As of April 25, 2025, the start - up rate of Chinese LOW - E glass sample enterprises was 46.7%, - 13.1 percentage points year - on - year [27]. - **Real Estate Demand**: From January to March 2025, the cumulative year - on - year changes in real estate sales area, new construction area, completion area, and development funds sources were - 3.0% ( + 2.1% month - on - month), - 24.4% ( + 5.2% month - on - month), - 14.3% ( + 1.3% month - on - month), and - 3.6% ( + 13.4% month - on - month) respectively. The decline in real estate sales, completion, and funds sources narrowed [30]. 3.4 Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: Currently, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 65.473 million heavy boxes, - 2.3% month - on - month and + 9.25% year - on - year. The inventory days were 29.4 days, 0.8 days less than in March and 4.8 days more than the same period last year [35]. - **Shahe Area Inventory**: Currently, the social inventory in the Shahe area was 3.6 million heavy boxes, - 21.7% month - on - month and the same as the same period last year. The replenishment of medium - level traders slowed down, and the inventory of upstream enterprises accumulated [39]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Cost**: Currently, the cost of petroleum coke - based production was 1,208 yuan/ton, + 4.5% month - on - month and - 1.47% year - on - year; the cost of coal - based production was 1,067 yuan/ton, - 2.11% month - on - month and - 18.55% year - on - year; the cost of natural gas - based production was 1,503 yuan/ton, - 2.02% month - on - month and - 12.11% year - on - year [44]. - **Profit**: Currently, the production profit of petroleum coke - based production was - 38.35 yuan/ton, - 18.11 yuan/ton month - on - month; the production profit of coal - based production was 145 yuan/ton, + 56.45 yuan/ton month - on - month; the production profit of natural gas - based production was - 153 yuan/ton, + 38.47 yuan/ton month - on - month [47]. 3.6 Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: The new main 09 contract reached around 1,080, falling near the dynamic coal - based cost. Dynamically track the suppression of the 20 - day moving average, and 1,150 became the watershed between bulls and bears [3]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: The spread of the glass 9 - 1 contract was currently around - 50, and the market was in a back structure. Reverse arbitrage could still be participated in [3]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Currently, the glass industry chain showed the transmission characteristics of upstream inventory accumulation, medium - level sales stagnation, and downstream weakness. Currently, the inventory of upstream glass enterprises and medium - level traders was higher than the same period. The upstream and medium - level could consider selling hedging around 1,200 - 1,250 when the futures market was at a large premium based on their own spot inventory and sales situation [3].

Group 1 - The short-term glass supply and demand structure remains relatively loose, with current market prices stabilizing and midstream distributors increasing inventory due to a quick recovery in production and sales [1][4] - Weak terminal demand continues to be a significant factor limiting the rise in glass prices, as downstream entities face difficulties in cash flow and slow order recovery, leading to cautious stocking behavior [1][4] - The production capacity of float glass in China is currently at a low level compared to the past five years, with 223 out of 285 production lines in operation, and a daily melting capacity of 158,155 tons, down 9.73% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The recent "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" issued by the central government aims to boost domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market, which may positively impact glass demand if policies are effectively implemented [2] - The plan includes measures to support housing consumption, such as allowing special bonds for purchasing existing homes for affordable housing and potentially lowering housing provident fund loan rates [2] - Current inventory levels in key monitored provinces have decreased by 202 million weight boxes, a reduction of 3.23%, indicating a slight improvement in the market despite ongoing cautious purchasing behavior from downstream entities [3] Group 3 - The overall glass market is characterized by a low profit level, with many companies facing losses; if prices continue to decline, there is a possibility of a further reduction in supply, which could improve the supply-demand environment [4] - The market is expected to experience pressure on prices due to the loose supply-demand structure, while policy expectations and cost support may provide some stability [4] - Future market dynamics will depend on the release of midstream and downstream stocking demand and the effectiveness of real estate policies [4]