光大期货：基本面未明显好转前提下仅靠厂家涨价或难以持续，后续沙河地区煤改气、冬季大气污染治理、反内卷等都将给玻璃 供应带来扰动。需求也存在双节备货、年底赶工等支撑，四季度供需格局有回暖预期，玻璃期价底部特征明显。但受制于终端地 产需求起色偏慢，玻璃供需矛盾缓解幅度仍不明显，不建议对上方高度过分乐观。 创元期货：未来一段时间，玻璃利多因素和利空因素交织，利多主要是旺季、沙河地区煤改气以及可能存在的政策预期。利空主 要是当前的现实情况仍然羸弱，并没有发生重大逆转，其次是高企的中游库存仍然是压制。供给端16万吨日熔量比较高，政策预 期带动涨价，建议观察下游能否接受。沙河煤改气落地后，成本抬升，但是目前看，中游库存压力不减，月差维持弱势。建议关 注湖北地区动态，近两日湖北地区陆续提涨，基差收敛走强由现货向上带动，近月基本平水现货，弱现实和强预期格局比较分 化，现货端利多利空并存，观察旺季能否兑现。 【机构观点】 9月30日早盘，玻璃主力合约维持偏弱走势。旺季、沙河地区煤改气以及可能存在的政策预期是利多因素，但玻璃库存高位且需 求疲弱限制价格上涨，供应端扰动存在分歧，估值受煤制气和石油焦产线利润影响，市场处于弱平衡到弱 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soda Ash**: Last week, the operating rate and production of soda ash enterprises continued to rise, and the market production - sales rate increased month - on - month. However, the inventory continued to accumulate. The current supply - demand pattern of soda ash is weak, with no improvement in downstream demand, continuous increases in supply and inventory, and a gradual decline in spot prices. The subsequent pattern of increasing supply and weak demand will continue to suppress market confidence. Although the short - term futures price rebounded at a low level due to macro - disturbances, the rebound momentum is insufficient under the weak reality. It is recommended to trade with a short - bias on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. - **Glass**: Last week, due to one production line being shut down for water discharge and one for hot repair, and one previously ignited production line starting to produce glass, the weekly melting volume increased slightly, and the manufacturer's inventory increased slightly month - on - month. Currently, glass supply fluctuates within a narrow range at a low level. Entering the off - season of demand, downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing, and manufacturers' inventory remains high. Enterprises reduce prices to promote sales. Short - term demand is seasonally weak, and high inventory puts pressure on the market. The futures valuation is low and maintains a low - level shock. Attention should be paid to the cold repair of production lines after losses deepen. It is recommended to refer to the 950 - 1050 range for short - term shock trading, sell on rebounds, or sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Views and Strategies Soda Ash - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7267 million tons, including 812,600 tons of light soda ash and 914,100 tons of heavy soda ash. Enterprises' shipment slowed down, new orders were average, and some enterprises' inventory increased [8]. - **Supply**: As of June 19, 2025, domestic soda ash production was 754,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,600 tons or 1.97%. Among them, light soda ash production was 338,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 416,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,600 tons. There were few maintenance enterprises, and the load of individual enterprises fluctuated, resulting in increased supply [8]. - **Demand**: As of June 19, 2025, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 714,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 94.65%, a month - on - month increase of 2.66 percentage points. Soda ash production increased slightly. Enterprises mainly shipped pre - orders, and new order reception was average. The production - sales rate only improved slightly [8]. - **View and Strategy**: The current supply - demand pattern is weak. It is recommended to trade with a short - bias on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. Glass - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.887 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 202,000 weight boxes or 0.29%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.82%. The inventory days were 30.8 days, the same as the previous period [9]. - **Supply**: From June 13 - 19, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.0935 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.88% [9]. - **Profit**: From June 13 - 19, 2025, according to the production cost calculation model of Longzhong Information, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 195.11 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.28 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was 83.70 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.98 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was - 108.47 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20.00 yuan/ton [9]. - **Demand**: As of June 16, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.83 days, a month - on - month decrease of 5.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.48% [9]. - **View and Strategy**: Currently, supply is at a low level with narrow fluctuations, and demand is seasonally weak. It is recommended to refer to the 950 - 1050 range for short - term shock trading, sell on rebounds, or sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - **Soda Ash**: The upstream of the soda ash industry chain includes natural alkali mines, raw salt, synthetic ammonia, raw salt, limestone, and ammonium chloride. The product is soda ash (light soda ash/heavy soda ash), and the downstream includes agricultural fertilizers, glass, and daily detergents [11]. - **Flat Glass**: The upstream of the flat glass industry chain includes raw materials such as quartz sand, limestone, soda ash, and additives, as well as fuels like coal - made gas (24%), natural gas (40%), and petroleum coke (16%). The mid - stream products include float glass and other types. The downstream is mainly used in real estate (75%), automobiles (18%), and electronic appliances (7%) [12]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - **Glass**: As of June 20, 2025, the closing price of the FG main contract was 1007, and the North China basis was 133 yuan/ton. The FG9 - 1 spread closed at - 58 yuan/ton [16][20]. - **Soda Ash**: As of June 20, 2025, the closing price of the SA main contract was 11573, and the North China basis was 227 yuan/ton. The SA9 - 1 spread closed at 11 yuan/ton [19][20]. 3.4 Inventory - **Glass**: As of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.887 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 202,000 weight boxes or 0.29%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.82%. The inventory days were 30.8 days, the same as the previous period. There were different inventory changes in different regions [23]. - **Soda Ash**: As of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7267 million tons, including 812,600 tons of light soda ash and 914,100 tons of heavy soda ash. Enterprises' shipment slowed down, new orders were average, and some enterprises' inventory increased [32]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Glass**: From June 13 - 19, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.0935 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.88% [36]. - **Soda Ash**: As of June 19, 2025, domestic soda ash production was 754,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,600 tons or 1.97%. Among them, light soda ash production was 338,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 416,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,600 tons. There were few maintenance enterprises, and the load of individual enterprises fluctuated, resulting in increased supply [45]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Glass**: As of June 16, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.83 days, a month - on - month decrease of 5.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.48%. Since June, deep - processing orders in many places have decreased [52]. - **Soda Ash**: As of June 19, 2025, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 714,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 94.65%, a month - on - month increase of 2.66 percentage points. Soda ash production increased slightly. Enterprises mainly shipped pre - orders, and new order reception was average. The production - sales rate only improved slightly [62].

Core Viewpoint - Glass futures have shown a slight upward trend, with the main contract reaching a peak of 1021.00 yuan and closing at 1007.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.31% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - New Century Futures indicates that glass prices are experiencing low-level fluctuations, with no substantial positive factors in the fundamentals. The current weak trend in glass spot prices is expected to continue, with daily melting volume dropping below 156,000 tons in the short term due to both production line ignition and shutdown [2] - Hualian Futures notes that the glass market is in a demand off-season, with companies reducing prices to stimulate sales. Inventory levels are slightly fluctuating at high levels, and the short-term supply-demand balance is unlikely to improve, leading to continued downward pressure on glass prices [3] - Zhonghui Futures highlights a significant decline in real estate completions from January to May, with a 5% decrease in downstream processing orders in mid-June compared to historical levels. The overall glass demand is expected to remain weak, with continued inventory accumulation upstream and a lack of significant drivers for price recovery [3] Group 2: Production and Inventory - New Century Futures reports that the total inventory of float glass among sample enterprises remains high compared to the same period in the past two years, indicating significant inventory pressure [2] - Hualian Futures mentions that one production line has been shut down, leading to a slight decrease in operating rates, while inventory levels have increased slightly in most regions, except for slight reductions in Central and Eastern China [3] - Zhonghui Futures states that the current production and daily melting volume are experiencing low-level fluctuations, with costs decreasing and market prices below production costs, indicating a low valuation despite weak fundamentals [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, the float glass market faced dual pressures of "weak reality + weak expectation", with the price center continuing to decline. Macroscopically, there was no clear incremental policy information from the Politburo meeting in April, and the Sino - US trade war was at a stalemate. Although market risk appetite had somewhat recovered, tariff concerns remained, and the macro - sentiment was still cautious. Fundamentally, glass production and daily melting volume remained stable at a low level, with limited expectation of supply reduction. After the cost decreased, manufacturers' cold - repair plans slowed down, and the supply side could not effectively support the glass. Demand showed seasonal improvement, but the number of days of downstream deep - processing orders was significantly lower than the same period. The decline of the real estate industry narrowed but was still in the negative range, and the market demand expectation was weak. Upstream glass enterprises re - accumulated inventory, and under the pressure of medium - level inventory, the rebound of the futures market was suppressed to some extent. In the medium - to - long term, the annual supply of glass showed a downward trend, and demand had periodic increases. Prices would fluctuate significantly with changes in fundamentals. It was recommended that the industry seize the opportunity of high - level hedging. Attention should be paid to global market risk appetite, downstream production and sales, and domestic hedging policies [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: As of April 29, the FG2509 contract closed at 1,234 yuan/ton, with a monthly change of - 9.4% [5]. - **Spot Market**: As of April 29, the monthly change range of spot prices was between - 2.3% and + 3.2% [5]. - **Basis**: In April, spot glass quotes showed regional differentiation, with the national average price increasing by 10 yuan/ton. The futures market was weak, driving the basis to strengthen. The basis of the main FG509 contract in Hubei was 68, and the basis rate was 5.6% [8]. - **Spread**: The spread of the FG05 - 09 contract was - 44 points, with the near - month contract weaker than the far - month contract. The spread of the FG09 - 01 contract was - 50 points, showing a pattern of near - month weakness and far - month strength. The glass showed a contango structure, with the near - month contract at par, and the reality was weak but the space was limited. The spread between soda ash and the glass 09 contract was 242 points, the same as on March 20 and 50 points wider than on April 20 [11][13]. 3.2 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization**: In April, the capacity utilization rate decreased and was lower than the same period last year. The current start - up rate of the float glass industry was 75.42%, unchanged from the previous month and - 9.07% year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate was 78.41%, - 0.62% month - on - month and - 7.327% year - on - year [16]. - **Daily Melting Volume**: Currently, the daily melting volume of float glass was 157,200 tons, - 0.79% month - on - month and - 9.8% year - on - year. The monthly average daily output was 158,200 tons. It was estimated that the glass output in April was 4.74 million tons ( - 3.1% month - on - month and - 9.3% year - on - year) [19]. - **Cold - repair Loss**: In April, the daily average loss of float glass was 42,400 tons. It was estimated that the maintenance loss in April was 1.27 million tons ( - 3.6% month - on - month and + 46.8% year - on - year) [21]. 3.3 Demand Side - **Deep - processing Orders**: As of mid - April, the average number of days of orders for national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, + 13.4% month - on - month and - 17.7% year - on - year. The performance of deep - processing orders varied. Some enterprises reported no obvious improvement compared with March and were lower than the same period last year. Currently, scattered orders maintained production, while some orders increased, especially in South China, Northeast China, Northwest China, and Southwest China, with little change in East China, North China, and Central China. As of April 25, 2025, the start - up rate of Chinese LOW - E glass sample enterprises was 46.7%, - 13.1 percentage points year - on - year [27]. - **Real Estate Demand**: From January to March 2025, the cumulative year - on - year changes in real estate sales area, new construction area, completion area, and development funds sources were - 3.0% ( + 2.1% month - on - month), - 24.4% ( + 5.2% month - on - month), - 14.3% ( + 1.3% month - on - month), and - 3.6% ( + 13.4% month - on - month) respectively. The decline in real estate sales, completion, and funds sources narrowed [30]. 3.4 Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: Currently, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 65.473 million heavy boxes, - 2.3% month - on - month and + 9.25% year - on - year. The inventory days were 29.4 days, 0.8 days less than in March and 4.8 days more than the same period last year [35]. - **Shahe Area Inventory**: Currently, the social inventory in the Shahe area was 3.6 million heavy boxes, - 21.7% month - on - month and the same as the same period last year. The replenishment of medium - level traders slowed down, and the inventory of upstream enterprises accumulated [39]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Cost**: Currently, the cost of petroleum coke - based production was 1,208 yuan/ton, + 4.5% month - on - month and - 1.47% year - on - year; the cost of coal - based production was 1,067 yuan/ton, - 2.11% month - on - month and - 18.55% year - on - year; the cost of natural gas - based production was 1,503 yuan/ton, - 2.02% month - on - month and - 12.11% year - on - year [44]. - **Profit**: Currently, the production profit of petroleum coke - based production was - 38.35 yuan/ton, - 18.11 yuan/ton month - on - month; the production profit of coal - based production was 145 yuan/ton, + 56.45 yuan/ton month - on - month; the production profit of natural gas - based production was - 153 yuan/ton, + 38.47 yuan/ton month - on - month [47]. 3.6 Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: The new main 09 contract reached around 1,080, falling near the dynamic coal - based cost. Dynamically track the suppression of the 20 - day moving average, and 1,150 became the watershed between bulls and bears [3]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: The spread of the glass 9 - 1 contract was currently around - 50, and the market was in a back structure. Reverse arbitrage could still be participated in [3]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Currently, the glass industry chain showed the transmission characteristics of upstream inventory accumulation, medium - level sales stagnation, and downstream weakness. Currently, the inventory of upstream glass enterprises and medium - level traders was higher than the same period. The upstream and medium - level could consider selling hedging around 1,200 - 1,250 when the futures market was at a large premium based on their own spot inventory and sales situation [3].

短期玻璃供需格局仍偏宽松 近期玻璃现货市场价格逐渐走稳，部分区域实施量大优惠的销售策略，中游经销商集中补库导致产 销快速回暖。从中期来看，偏弱的终端需求仍是制约玻璃价格走强的重要因素，下游因回款困难加之订 单恢复速度较慢，备货情绪偏谨慎，从而导致当前的库存多集中于产业中上游，且在市场行情偏弱的时 期，中游备货量也大幅缩减，市场压力主要集中于上游生产型企业。 供应方面，据卓创资讯（301299）统计数据显示，全国浮法玻璃生产线共计285条(剔除个别指标置 换线)，在产223条，日熔量共计158155吨，同比下降9.73%，短时供应基本稳定。从长周期来看，24年 玻璃产能大幅下行，当前市场供应已位于过去五年同期偏低位水平，但亦受需求下滑影响，总体供应仍 处偏宽松格局。需求方面，当前三十大中城市商品房成交面积仍显低迷，节后数据徘徊于五年同期数据 低位，从预期来看，若新房销售面积迟迟未有改观，则地产资金问题短时难以自行解决，故而后市玻璃 订单的释放更加依赖于政策端的支持。 从政策端来看，近日中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》，并发出通 知，要求各地区各部门结合实际认真贯彻落实。《提振消费专项行动 ...