玻璃现货行情分析
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大越期货玻璃周报-20260323
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-03-23 02:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the glass futures fluctuated downward, with the main contract FG2605 closing at 1054 yuan/ton, a 7.14% decline from the previous week; the spot price of 5mm white glass大板 in Hebei Shahe was 968 yuan/ton, a 0.82% decline from the previous week [3] - In terms of supply, raw material prices have rebounded, glass production profits have declined, and there is an expectation that individual production lines will be shut down next week, with weekly output likely to continue to shrink; the number of operating float glass production lines and daily melting volume are at low levels in the same period [3] - In terms of demand, although downstream processing plants have gradually resumed work, the resumption is restricted by weak orders; some plants replenished inventory moderately after continuous price increases by original glass enterprises; the overall sales-to-production ratio of the float glass industry exceeded 100 last week, and inventory decreased, but the shipment situation slowed down slightly compared to the previous week [3] - As of March 19, the inventory of national float glass enterprises was 74.436 million weight boxes, a 1.86% decline from the previous week, and the inventory is at a historically high level in the same period; overall, the glass market has been more affected by macro sentiment recently, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend in the short term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1135 yuan/ton to 1054 yuan/ton, a decline of 7.14%; the spot benchmark price decreased from 976 yuan/ton to 968 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.82%; the main basis decreased from -159 yuan/ton to -86 yuan/ton, a decline of 45.91% [6] Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass大板 in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark location, was 968 yuan/ton, a 0.82% decline from the previous week [11] Fundamentals - Cost and Profit - No specific content provided other than the topic of glass production profit Fundamentals - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines was 207, with an operating rate of 70.41%, and the number of operating production lines is at a low level in the same period [17] - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 145,800 tons, and the production capacity is at a low level in the same period [19] Fundamentals - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons [23] - Other topics such as housing sales, new construction, construction, and completion areas, and downstream processing plant operation and order situations are listed, but no specific content is provided Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 74.436 million weight boxes, a 1.86% decline from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [37] Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E is presented, including data on production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio; for example, in 2024E, production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, with a production growth rate of 3.94%, and consumption is expected to be 53.1 million tons, with a consumption growth rate of -1.15% [38]
大越期货玻璃早报-20260319
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-03-19 02:27
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass remain weak, with low supply, dismal downstream deep - processing factory orders, and rising glass factory inventories. It is expected that glass will mainly experience low - level, volatile, and weak operation in the short term [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract decreased from 1094 yuan/ton to 1066 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.56%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - plate glass remained unchanged at 976 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 118 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton, a change of - 23.73% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 976 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [11]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - Glass production profit has been slightly repaired, but cold - repair is less than expected, and supply is at a low level [2]. Fundamentals - Production Line and Output - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 209, with an operating rate of 71.05%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 146,900 tons, and the production capacity is at a historical low for the same period [17][19]. Fundamentals - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons [23]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 75.849 million weight boxes, a decrease of 4.76% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2][38]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, consumption, and other data of float glass from 2017 to 2024E. For example, in 2024E, the production is 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, and the production growth rate is 3.94% [39]. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: Glass production profit is at a low level, leading to a decline in production [4]. - **Negative factors**: The terminal demand in the real - estate industry remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital recovery in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly consuming the inventory of raw glass [4].
大越期货玻璃早报-20260306
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-03-06 02:38
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The glass market is currently bearish. The production profit of glass has been slightly restored, but cold repairs are less than expected, resulting in low supply. The downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real estate downturn, and the inventory is at a historically high level. The futures price is at a premium to the spot price, and the inventory is increasing. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the main positions are net short. In the short term, the glass market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [2]. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract increased from 1038 yuan/ton to 1055 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.64%. The spot price of Shahe safety large - plate glass remained unchanged at 956 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 82 yuan/ton to - 99 yuan/ton, a change of 20.73% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 956 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. Cost - side of Fundamentals - The production profit of glass has been slightly restored, and the production volume is decreasing due to low profit [2][4]. Production Line and Output of Glass - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 209, with an operating rate of 70.61%, at a historically low level in the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 148,600 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level in the same period [18][20]. Demand of Fundamentals - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons [24]. Inventory of Fundamentals - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 79.637 million weight boxes, an increase of 4.77% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [2][39]. Supply - demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, consumption, and other data of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio. For example, in 2024E, the production is 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, and the production growth rate is 3.94% [40].
大越期货玻璃早报-20260305
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-03-05 01:43
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to mainly operate in a volatile and weak manner in the short term [2]. - The glass supply is at a low level, the orders of downstream deep - processing plants are dismal, and the glass factory inventory has rebounded, with the expectation of mainly low - level volatile and weak operation [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1054 yuan/ton to 1038 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.52%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board remained at 956 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 98 yuan/ton to - 82 yuan/ton, a change of - 16.33% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 956 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [11]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - The glass production profit has been slightly repaired, but the cold repair is less than expected, and the supply is at a low level [2]. Fundamentals - Production Line and Output - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 209, with an operating rate of 70.61%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period [18]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 148,600 tons, and the production capacity is at a historical low for the same period [20]. Fundamentals - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons [24]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 76.008 million weight boxes, an increase of 37.32% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [39]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [40]. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The glass production profit is at a low level, and the output is decreasing [4]. - **Negative factors**: The terminal demand in the real estate industry is still weak, and the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processing plants are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [4].
大越期货玻璃早报-20251212
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 02:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The production profit repair is weak, supply contraction is less than expected, downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real estate drag, and inventory is at a historically high level for the same period [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 964 yuan/ton to 956 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.83%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large boards remained unchanged at 968 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from 4 yuan/ton to 12 yuan/ton, a rise of 200.00% [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 968 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [14]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - Not provided with specific analysis content other than mentioning glass production profit. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 220, with an operating rate of 74.51%, at a historically low level for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.72 tons, with production capacity at a historically low level for the same period [25][27]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 470.82 tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [30][5]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 58.227 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.04% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [43]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 - 2024E, the production and consumption of float glass have shown different growth and decline trends. For example, in 2021, production increased by 9.88% and consumption increased by 6.87%. In 2024E, production is expected to increase by 3.94% and consumption is expected to decrease by 1.15% [44]. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: "Coal - to - Gas" in the Shahe area and industry cold repairs have led to production losses [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak real - estate terminal demand and low orders from deep - processing enterprises; poor capital collection in the deep - processing industry and cautious attitudes among traders and processors [5]. Main Logic - The glass supply is stabilizing at a low level, the orders of downstream deep - processing factories are dismal, and the glass factory inventory is rising. It is expected that glass will fluctuate weakly at a low level [6].
大越期货玻璃早报-20251128
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 02:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The glass market has a weak fundamental situation, and it is expected to show a weak and volatile trend in the short term. The supply of glass has stabilized at a low level, downstream deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and glass factory inventories are rising [2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - The fundamentals show that production profit repair is weak, supply contraction is less than expected, downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real estate drag, and inventory is at a historical high in the same period [2]. - The basis is - 53 yuan, with futures at a premium to spot [2]. - The national floating glass enterprise inventory is 62.362 million weight boxes, a 1.49% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [2]. - The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. 3.2 Influence Factor Summary - **Likely to be favorable**: "Coal - to - gas" in the Shahe area and industry cold repairs lead to production losses [4]. - **Likely to be unfavorable**: Real estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processing factories are cautious, mainly digesting raw glass inventories [5]. 3.3 Main Logic and Risk Points - **Main logic**: Glass supply has stabilized at a low level, downstream deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and glass factory inventories are rising, so it is expected to show a weak and volatile trend at a low level [6]. - **Risk points**: The intensity of the "anti - involution" policy exceeds expectations [6]. 3.4 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1041 yuan/ton, with a 0.39% increase; the spot price of Shahe Safety large - plate glass is 988 yuan/ton, with no change; the main basis is - 53 yuan, with an 8.16% increase [7]. 3.5 Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 988 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost side**: No detailed data is provided in the text. - **Production side**: The number of operating floating glass production lines nationwide is 222, with an operating rate of 74.85%, and the production line operating number is at a historical low in the same period. The daily melting volume is 158,100 tons, and the production capacity is at a historical low in the same period [23][25]. - **Demand side**: In September 2025, the apparent consumption of floating glass was 4.7082 million tons [28]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of national floating glass enterprises is 62.362 million weight boxes, a 1.49% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2][41]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: Data from 2017 - 2024E shows the production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio of floating glass. For example, in 2024E, the production is 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, and the production growth rate is 3.94% [42].