南华期货玻璃纯碱产业周报 ——维持震荡走势 寿佳露（投资咨询资格证号：Z0020569） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月8日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响玻璃纯碱走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1、浮法玻璃日熔下滑至一定低位，但后续冷修和点火预期均存在，需求现实和预期同样疲弱。玻璃处于供需 双弱的状态下，整体节奏较难把握。价格如果上涨，会动摇市场的冷修预期而刺激点火，因此很难在需求没 有起色的情况下给到玻璃价格向上的弹性。但如果价格急速下跌的话，也不排除当下的点火预期被动摇，并 且在春节前触发更多的冷修计划；此外，在远月交易的市场逻辑里，春节后的需求回归也是一个可以博弈的 点。 2、纯碱估值弹性有限，供应端没有趋势性减产的情况下难以给到产业利润。我们对纯碱的定性依旧是过剩， 估值上跟随成本而动。价格往下需要看到上游厂家的快速累库，往上则需要看到供应"故事"或是成本"故 事"，短期都难以实现，价格或窄幅震荡为主。 3、现实层面，无论供应预期如何变化，目前玻璃中游的高库存需要被消化（因此期现正反馈持续性比较短 暂）；至于纯碱，产量仍有上升空间，产能扩张周期也 ...

第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响玻璃纯碱走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1、浮法玻璃日熔下滑至一定低位，但后续冷修和点火预期均存在，需求现实和预期同样疲弱。玻璃处于供需 双弱的状态下，整体节奏较难把握。价格如果上涨，会动摇市场的冷修预期而刺激点火，因此很难在需求没 有起色的情况下给到玻璃价格向上的弹性。但如果价格急速下跌的话，也不排除当下的点火预期被动摇，并 且在春节前触发更多的冷修计划；此外，在远月交易的市场逻辑里，春节后的需求回归也是一个可以博弈的 点。 2、纯碱估值弹性有限，供应端没有趋势性减产的情况下难以给到产业利润。我们对纯碱的定性依旧是过剩， 估值上跟随成本而动。价格往下需要看到上游厂家的快速累库，往上则需要看到供应"故事"或是成本"故 事"，短期都难以实现，价格或窄幅震荡为主。 南华期货玻璃纯碱产业周报 ——供需矛盾不明，价格缺乏弹性 寿佳露（投资咨询资格证号：Z0020569） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月1日 3、现实层面，无论供应预期如何变化，目前玻璃中游的高库存需要被消化（因此期现正反馈持续性比较短 暂）；至于纯碱，产量仍有上升空间， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Short - term oil prices may be boosted by the decline in Kazakhstan's oil and gas condensate production and the stalemate in Russia - Ukraine negotiations, but the upside is limited due to the weak supply - demand pattern. Brent may trade in the range of $60 - 65 per barrel [1]. Natural Rubber - With falling Thai raw material prices, increasing overseas supply expectations, weakening cost support, and poor terminal demand, rubber prices are expected to be weak and volatile [3]. Methanol - In the port area, the sentiment is weakening due to Iranian plant shutdowns, high shipping volumes, and warrant registration. Inland supply is increasing, but profits are weak. Traditional downstream demand provides some support, forming a bottom - price support [5]. Polyolefins - Both polyethylene and polypropylene show a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX is expected to be in high - level shock in the short term, PTA is expected to be in high - level shock in the short term and a positive spread for TA5 - 9 at a low level, MEG is expected to trade between 3800 - 4000 yuan/ton in the short term, short - fiber processing fees will continue to be compressed, and bottle - chip inventory is likely to accumulate seasonally [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak, and short positions can be held. PVC supply pressure remains high, demand is weak, and the price is expected to remain weak at the bottom [12]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash is expected to be in a bottom - shock pattern. Glass prices may be strong in the short term but will face pressure in December [13]. Benzene - Styrene - BZ2603 is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, and EB01 is expected to be in wide - range shock [14]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: On December 4, Brent rose 0.94% to $63.26 per barrel, WTI rose 1.22% to $59.67 per barrel, and SC rose 0.45% to 451.30 yuan per barrel. Some spreads also showed significant changes [1]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: On December 4, the price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex rubber (SCRWF) dropped 1.35% to 14650 yuan/ton, and the full - latex basis dropped 8.33% [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread increased 150.00% to 50 yuan/ton [3]. - **Production and Inventory**: In September, Thailand's production decreased 0.29%, and Indonesia's decreased 1.53%. Tire production and exports in October decreased. Inventory showed an increasing trend [3]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: On December 4, MA2601 closed at 2113 yuan/ton, down 0.70%. Some spreads also changed [5]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased [5]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Some upstream and downstream operating rates increased, while some decreased [5]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: On December 4, L2601 closed at 6776 yuan/ton, down 0.47%. Some spreads changed [9]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased [9]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates and downstream weighted operating rates showed different trends [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: On December 4, Brent crude oil (February) rose 0.9% to $63.26 per barrel, and some downstream polyester product prices decreased [11]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX dropped 0.4% to $842 per ton, and some spreads changed. PX is expected to be in high - level shock [11]. - **PTA - Related**: PTA East China spot price dropped 0.2% to 4690 yuan/ton. PTA is expected to be in high - level shock [11]. - **MEG - Related**: MEG East China spot price dropped 0.5% to 3855 yuan/ton. MEG is expected to trade in the range of 3800 - 4000 yuan/ton [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On December 4, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was unchanged at 2281.3 yuan/ton, and East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price dropped 0.9% to 4460 yuan/ton [12]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: FOB East China port caustic soda price rose 1.3% to $380 per ton, and PVC export profit decreased [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda production and demand are under pressure, and PVC supply pressure is high with weak demand [12]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: On December 4, North China glass quote was unchanged at 1070 yuan/ton, and North China soda ash quote was unchanged at 1300 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production decreased, and glass melting volume decreased slightly [13]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventory and soda ash factory and delivery warehouse inventories decreased [13]. Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: On December 4, Brent crude oil (February) rose 0.9% to $63.26 per barrel, and CFR China pure benzene rose 0.4% to $675 per ton [14]. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: Styrene East China spot price rose 0.3% to 6720 yuan/ton, and some spreads changed [14]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased 36.6% to 22.40 tons, and some operating rates changed [14].