1.1 核心矛盾 南华期货玻璃纯碱产业周报 当前影响玻璃纯碱走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1、12月底-春节前仍有部分玻璃产线冷修等待兑现，继续影响远月定价和市场预期。此外，2026年政策端对 供应的扰动尚不能排除，关注供应预期的变化。 2、纯碱则以成本定价为主，虽然供应端偶有降负，但新产能待投，产量也仍在中高位置，没有趋势性减产的 情况下纯碱估值难以有向上弹性，且随着玻璃冷修预期再起，纯碱刚需有下滑的预期。 3、现实层面，无论供应预期如何变化，目前玻璃中游的高库存需要被消化；至于纯碱，新产能已经上路，尚 无法脱离供需过剩的一致预期。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 玻璃：近端大部分冷修兑现，当前日熔下滑至15.45万吨附近，春节前供应扰动尚在，日熔仍有进一步下滑的 预期，等待兑现程度。基本面，中游高库存以及需求淡季抑制现货价格，现货压力较大，观察后续现实端反 馈。 ——低位震荡 寿佳露（投资咨询资格证号：Z0020569） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 纯碱：跟随上下边际成本波动，不过新产能待投，但现实层面高库存和高产量预期压制绝对价格；纯碱上游 不断 ...

南华期货玻璃纯碱产业周报 ——低位震荡，等待为主 寿佳露（投资咨询资格证号：Z0020569） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月21日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响玻璃纯碱走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： * 远端交易预期 1、观察玻璃冷修预期（春节前）进一步兑现的程度。前期盘面下跌后，部分产线冷修预期被强化，影响市场 预期和远月供需逻辑。另一方面，玻璃冷修将影响纯碱刚需。 2、成本逻辑。玻璃产线煤改气或者石油焦改气均会抬升产业链成本；纯碱除了煤，原盐价格也需要关注。 1、12月-春节前仍有部分玻璃产线冷修等待兑现，或影响远月定价和市场预期。此外，政策对供应的扰动尚 不能排除，关注明年供应预期的变化。 2、近月01仍将跟随现实（交割逻辑），仓单博弈为主。纯碱则以成本定价为主，虽然供应端偶有降负，但新 产能待投，产量也仍在中高位置，没有趋势性减产的情况下纯碱估值难以有向上弹性，且随着玻璃冷修预期 再起，纯碱刚需有下滑的预期。 3、现实层面，无论供应预期如何变化，目前玻璃中游的高库存需要被消化；至于纯碱，新产能已经上路，尚 无法脱离供需过剩的一致预期。 ∗ 近 ...

玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/11/18 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 900-1200 | 21.36% | 46.3% | | 纯碱 | 1100-1300 | 17.89% | 11.0% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 玻璃纯碱套保策略表 | | 行 为 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导 | | | | | | （%） | | | | 向 | | | | | | | | | | 库 | | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据 企业的库存情况，做空玻璃期货来 | FG2601 | 卖出 | 50% | 1250 | | | 存 | 产成品库存偏 高，担心玻 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Glass Futures Daily Report [2] - Date: June 9, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Li Xuanyi [4] Group 2: Basic Data Spot Market - Prices of various glass products in different regions changed, with daily changes ranging from -20 to 0 yuan/ton and weekly changes from -70 to -4 yuan/ton [3] Futures Market - FG09, FG05, and FG01 contracts all increased, with daily increases of 9, 11, and 12 yuan/ton respectively, and weekly increases of 52, 49, and 52 yuan/ton [3] - The position of the main contract increased by 28,591 hands, and the trading volume decreased by 376,898 hands [3] - The number of warehouse receipts remained at 0 [3] Basis and Spread - The basis of FG09, FG05, and FG01 contracts decreased, with daily decreases of 13, 15, and 16 yuan/ton respectively, and weekly decreases of 37, 35, and 36 yuan/ton [3] - The spreads between FG01 - 05, FG05 - 09, and FG09 - 01 contracts changed slightly [3] Fundamental Data - Glass daily melting volume and start - up rate remained unchanged week - on - week, with year - on - year decreases of 8.7% and 9.6% respectively [3] - Glass inventory increased by 3.1% week - on - week and 20.2% year - on - year [3] - Profits from different fuels showed different trends, with natural gas profit down 1.6% week - on - week, coal profit down 9.1%, and petroleum coke profit down 4.0% [3] Group 3: Market Judgment Market Situation - The market prices of glass in different regions changed, with decreases in some areas [5] Important Information - The domestic float glass market price was stable with a downward trend, and the production and sales in most regions were average [6] - Yihai Dabo (Dalian) Glass Co., Ltd. with a designed capacity of 520 tons/day stopped production [7] Logical Analysis - The glass price rose while soda ash fell, and the black varieties weakened, but the main glass contract exceeded 1,000 yuan [7] - The market was trading on the cold - repair expectation of glass, but there was uncertainty, and the price might continue to decline [7] - The policy had limited impact on the post - real - estate cycle products, and the downstream demand was expected to be weak in the short term [7] Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, pay attention to short - selling opportunities during the rebound [8] - For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [8] - For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [8] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts showing glass basis, spreads, positions, trading volumes, inventory, and profits over different time periods [9][13]