Report Title - The report is titled "South China Futures Glass and Soda Ash Industry Weekly Report - Low-level Volatility" [1] Report Date - The report date is December 28, 2025 [2] 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core contradictions affecting the glass and soda ash trends include potential glass production line cold repairs from late December to before the Spring Festival, which impact far - month pricing and market expectations. Policy - end supply disturbances in 2026 cannot be ruled out [2]. - Soda ash is mainly cost - priced. Despite occasional supply cuts, new capacities are pending, and production remains at a medium - high level. Without a trend of production cuts, its valuation lacks upward elasticity. With the resurgence of glass cold - repair expectations, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline [2]. - Currently, the high inventory of glass in the middle reaches needs to be digested. Soda ash is expected to have an oversupply situation due to new capacities [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The glass spot is weak, with cold - repair expectations but high middle - reach inventory. The sustainability needs to be observed, including unexpected cold - repair situations and spot feedback. Cost and supply expectations affect far - month pricing [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The 05 contract is more about expectations. The glass and soda ash trends are unclear, lacking clear signals, and are expected to be volatile. It is advisable to observe [8]. 1.3 Basic Data Overview - **Glass**: The average spot price of glass decreased by 2 yuan on December 28, 2025. The 05, 09, and 01 contracts of glass futures increased by 0.96%, 1.13%, and 0.43% respectively on December 26, 2025. The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions on December 26, 2025, were 105 in Shahe, 129 in Hubei, 108 in East China, and 109 in South China [12][13]. - **Soda Ash**: There was little change in the spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions on December 26, 2025. The 05, 09, and 01 contracts of soda ash futures increased by 1.35%, 1.45%, and 0.54% respectively on December 26, 2025 [14][15]. 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: There are still some glass production line cold - repair expectations to be fulfilled from late December to before the Spring Festival, and supply is starting to shrink. The National Development and Reform Commission will effectively control high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects from next year, which may lead to market expectations of supply - side policies [15][16]. - **Negative Information**: The high inventory of glass in the middle reaches persists, with near - term spot pressure. The far - month demand expectation lacks elasticity, and there are differences in the degree of demand decline. New capacities of soda ash are expected to increase long - term supply pressure, and the resurgence of glass cold - repair expectations affects the rigid demand for soda ash [18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies. - The sales - to - production situation and spot price of glass, as well as the spot transaction situation of soda ash [18]. 3. Disk Interpretation 3.1 Single - Side Trends and Capital Movements - The expectation of the main 05 contract of glass is unclear, with weak supply and demand and no clear signals. The near - term spot pressure of glass is high, and the middle - reach inventory is high. The far - month has expectations of supply cuts and cost increases, but the demand is unclear [19]. 3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structure - **Glass**: The 01 contract is approaching delivery. This week, the 5 - 9 spread was mainly volatile, with no clear directional movement due to unclear supply - demand expectations and a wait - and - see attitude from funds [23]. - **Soda Ash**: It maintains a C structure overall. With the launch of new capacities, the long - term pattern may deteriorate again [24]. 4. Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - **Glass**: Natural gas production lines are in a loss, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines have slight profits [40]. - **Soda Ash**: The cash - flow cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1,200 yuan/ton, and the cash cost of the combined - soda process (mainly in Central China) is around 1,105 yuan/ton [41]. 4.2 Import and Export Analysis - **Glass**: The average monthly net export of float glass is 6 - 70,000 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with a limited impact [47]. - **Soda Ash**: The average monthly net export of soda ash is 180,000 - 210,000 tons, basically in line with expectations, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, with a significantly higher proportion than last year. The export in November was close to 190,000 tons, maintaining a high - expectation level [47]. 5. Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - **Glass**: The daily melting volume of glass has dropped to around 154,500 tons. There are still some cold - repair production lines to be fulfilled from late December to before the Spring Festival, and the daily melting volume is expected to decline further [54]. - **Soda Ash**: The current daily production of soda ash fluctuates slightly around 10 tons. The first 1 - million - ton soda ash capacity of the second phase of Alxa (total 2.8 million tons) started trial production on December 9. The new 700,000 - ton capacity of Yingcheng Xindu may be put into production in mid - to - late December [58]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - **Glass**: The high inventory of glass in the middle reaches persists, and the spot pressure remains. As of mid - December, the deep - processing orders of glass were 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. The deep - processing raw - glass inventory was 9 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.1%. The cumulative apparent demand for glass from January to December (excluding imports and exports) is estimated to decline by 6.9 - 7%. Terminal demand remains weak, and downstream restocking during the off - season is limited [61]. - **Soda Ash**: Currently, the total daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass is 243,000 tons, showing a slight decline, and the daily rigid demand for soda ash is about 48,600 tons. With the expectation of further glass cold - repairs, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline month - on - month. The finished - product inventory of photovoltaic glass continues to accumulate, and the inventory days have risen to over 35 days. The cumulative apparent demand for soda ash from January to November (including imports and exports) is estimated to be - 0.05%. The rigid demand for soda ash weakens slightly month - on - month, and downstream restocks mainly for rigid demand at low prices [74]. 5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Glass**: According to Longzhong data, the total manufacturer inventory is 58.623 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 weight boxes, or 0.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.63%. The inventory days are 26.5 days, the same as the previous period. The middle - reach inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain high [85]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash inventory is 1.4385 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60,800 tons. Among them, the light - soda ash inventory is 735,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,900 tons; the heavy - soda ash inventory is 703,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68,700 tons. The delivery - warehouse inventory is 395,100 tons (a decrease of 55,200 tons). The total inventory of factory warehouses and delivery warehouses is 1.8336 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 116,000 tons. The upstream inventory reduction exceeds expectations [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the trends of glass and soda ash are the potential cold - repair of some glass production lines from December to the Spring Festival, the influence of policy on supply, the near - month delivery logic and cost - based pricing of soda ash, and the need to digest the high inventory of glass in the middle reaches and the expected oversupply of soda ash [1]. - The short - term trend is unclear and oscillatory. It is recommended to observe and wait, with the 01 contract mainly focusing on warehouse receipt games and the 05 contract more on expectations [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - From December to the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may undergo cold - repair, affecting far - month pricing and market expectations. Policy influence on supply cannot be ruled out, and attention should be paid to changes in next year's supply expectations [1]. - The near - month 01 glass contract follows delivery logic, mainly involving warehouse receipt games. Soda ash is priced based on cost. With new production capacity to be put into operation and high - medium production levels, its valuation has limited upward potential without a trend of production reduction. The expected cold - repair of glass may lead to a decline in soda ash's rigid demand [1]. - Currently, the high inventory of glass in the middle reaches needs to be digested. Soda ash is expected to face oversupply due to new production capacity [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: There are still differences in near - term spot prices. Cold - repair expectations and high inventory in the middle reaches require observation of the persistence of unexpected cold - repair and spot price feedback. Cost and supply expectations affect far - month pricing. - Strategy suggestion: The 01 contract focuses on warehouse receipt games, and the 05 contract is more about expectations. The short - term trend is unclear and oscillatory, so it's advisable to observe [5]. 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - **Glass Spot Prices**: The average price of glass in Shahe on December 20, 2025, was 1008 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous day. The prices in most regions remained stable, with only a few showing slight declines [7][8]. - **Glass Futures Prices**: On December 19, 2025, compared with the previous day, the glass 05 contract decreased by 21 yuan/ton (- 1.98%), the 09 contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton (- 1.56%), and the 01 contract decreased by 12 yuan/ton (- 1.26%) [8]. - **Glass Daily Sales and Production**: The sales - to - production ratios in different regions showed fluctuations, with some regions having stable or slightly decreased ratios [9]. - **Soda Ash Spot Prices**: The prices of heavy and light soda ash in most regions remained stable on December 19, 2025, compared with the previous day [9]. - **Soda Ash Futures Prices**: On December 19, 2025, compared with the previous day, the soda ash 05 contract decreased by 17 yuan/ton (- 1.42%), the 09 contract decreased by 14 yuan/ton (- 1.12%), and the 01 contract decreased by 17 yuan/ton (- 1.5%) [10][11]. 3.2 Market Information 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Some glass production lines are expected to undergo cold - repair in December, and the National Development and Reform Commission plans to effectively control high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects starting next year, which may lead to market expectations of supply - side policies [11]. - **Negative Information**: The high inventory of glass in the middle reaches persists, putting pressure on spot prices. New production capacity of soda ash is expected to be put into operation, increasing long - term supply pressure, and the expected cold - repair of glass may affect the rigid demand for soda ash [12]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Whether the industrial policy will have further clear instructions. - The sales, production, and spot prices of glass, as well as the spot trading volume of soda ash [17]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Unilateral Trends and Capital Movements - The long - short game of the glass 01 contract may continue until near the delivery date. The increase in near - term cold - repair of glass and high inventory in the middle reaches lead to differences in the spot market. The far - month market has expectations of supply reduction and cost increase, which may affect market pricing and expectations [14]. 3.3.2 Basis and Spread Structure - **Glass**: The 1 - 5 spread of glass has narrowed this week, mainly because of the low valuation of the near - month contract, causing short - sellers to shift to the far - month contract [19]. - **Soda Ash**: The overall structure of soda ash remains in a C - structure, and the long - term situation may worsen with the release of new production capacity [20]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - **Glass**: Natural gas - based glass production lines are in the red, while petroleum - coke and coal - gas production lines have slight profits [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The cash - flow cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1210 yuan/ton, and that of the combined - soda process (mainly in Central China) is around 1110 yuan/ton [35]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Analysis - **Glass**: The average monthly net export of float glass is 6 - 7 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with a limited impact [37]. - **Soda Ash**: The average monthly net export of soda ash is 18 - 21 tons, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, and the export in November was close to 19 tons, maintaining high - level expectations [37]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Supply - side and Projection - **Glass Supply**: The daily melting volume of glass has dropped to around 155,000 tons, and some cold - repair production lines are yet to be realized in December, with an expected further decline in daily melting volume [44]. - **Soda Ash Supply**: The current daily production of soda ash fluctuates around 102,000 tons. The first 1 - million - ton production line of Alxa Phase II (total 2.8 million tons) started trial production on December 9, and the 700,000 - ton new production capacity of Yingcheng Xindu may be put into operation in mid - to - late December [47]. 3.5.2 Demand - side and Projection - **Glass Demand**: The high inventory of glass in the middle reaches persists, and the terminal demand remains weak. As of mid - December, the deep - processing orders of glass were 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. The deep - processing raw material inventory was 9 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.1%. The cumulative apparent demand from January to December is estimated to decline by 6.9 - 7% [50]. - **Soda Ash Demand**: The current rigid demand for soda ash remains stable, with downstream enterprises mainly replenishing inventory at low prices. The combined daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass is 243,700 tons, with a daily rigid demand for soda ash of about 48,800 tons. However, due to the expected cold - repair of glass, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken. The inventory of photovoltaic glass is continuously increasing, and attention should be paid to the cold - repair expectations of photovoltaic glass. The cumulative apparent demand for soda ash from January to November is estimated to decline by 0.05% [60][61]. 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Glass**: According to Longzhong data, the total inventory of glass manufacturers is 58.558 million weight - boxes, a month - on - month increase of 331,000 weight - boxes (+ 0.57%) and a year - on - year increase of 25.73%. The inventory days are 26.5 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous period. The middle - reach inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain at a high level [67]. - **Soda Ash**: The total inventory of soda ash is 1.4993 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons. Among them, the light - soda ash inventory is 727,600 tons (a month - on - month increase of 23,800 tons), and the heavy - soda ash inventory is 771,700 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 18,800 tons). The inventory in delivery warehouses is 450,300 tons (a decrease of 54,300 tons). The combined inventory of factories and delivery warehouses is 1.9496 million tons, with the upstream inventory being depleted and the downstream mainly replenishing inventory at low prices [67].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The structural contradiction in the glass industry still exists. The reduction in glass supply is insufficient to change the oversupply situation, and high inventory in the middle - stream puts great pressure on the 01 contract. The expectation of glass cold - repair is rising again, which is negative for the rigid demand of soda ash, but the cost side is relatively firm [2]. - There is no unexpected excessive production reduction on the supply side. The upper and middle - stream inventories of glass and soda ash are high, and the downstream's ability to absorb is questionable. As the off - season approaches, the spot pressure continues to increase [4][7]. - Currently, the position of the glass 01 contract is at a high level, and the game may continue until near the delivery. The glass 01 contract is expected to decline in the end, but the decline may occur near the delivery. Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. Although the cost expectation is solid, without production reduction, its valuation has no upward elasticity. The high overall inventory in the upper and middle - stream restricts the price of soda ash, which is expected to be weak in oscillation [7]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 900 - 1200, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.36% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 46.3%. The monthly price range forecast for soda ash is 1100 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.89% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 11.0% [1]. 2. Hedging Strategies Glass - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high glass product inventory worried about price decline, they can short glass futures (FG2601) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is 1250. They can also sell call options (FG601C1200) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 40 - 50 to lock in profits and reduce costs [1]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low glass procurement inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy glass futures (FG2601) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is 900 - 950. They can also sell put options (FG601P900) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 40 - 50 to lock in the procurement cost [1]. Soda Ash - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high soda ash product inventory worried about price decline, they can short soda ash futures (SA2601) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is 1250 - 1300. They can also sell call options (SA601C1300) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 40 - 50 to lock in profits and reduce costs [1]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low soda ash procurement inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy soda ash futures (SA2601) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is 1100 - 1150. They can also sell put options (SA601P1100) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 40 - 50 to lock in the procurement cost [1]. 3. Price and Spread Data Glass - **Futures Price**: On November 18, 2025, the price of the glass 05 contract was 1151 (down 14 or 1.2% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1232 (down 10 or 0.81%), and the 01 contract was 1017 (down 12 or 1.17%) [8]. - **Futures Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread was - 81 (down 4), the 9 - 1 spread was 215 (up 2), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 134 (up 2) [8]. - **Spot Price**: The average price of glass in Shahe on November 18, 2025, was 1073 (down 12 from the previous day). The prices in different regions also showed some declines [9]. Soda Ash - **Futures Price**: On November 18, 2025, the price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1287 (down 17 or 1.3% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1352 (down 22 or 1.6%), and the 01 contract was 1214 (down 17 or 1.38%) [10]. - **Futures Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread was - 65 (up 5 or - 7.14%), the 9 - 1 spread was 138 (down 5 or - 3.5%), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 73 (unchanged) [10]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions were mostly stable on November 18, 2025, except for a 22 - yuan decline in the heavy - soda price in Shahe [11].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Glass Futures Daily Report [2] - Date: June 9, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Li Xuanyi [4] Group 2: Basic Data Spot Market - Prices of various glass products in different regions changed, with daily changes ranging from -20 to 0 yuan/ton and weekly changes from -70 to -4 yuan/ton [3] Futures Market - FG09, FG05, and FG01 contracts all increased, with daily increases of 9, 11, and 12 yuan/ton respectively, and weekly increases of 52, 49, and 52 yuan/ton [3] - The position of the main contract increased by 28,591 hands, and the trading volume decreased by 376,898 hands [3] - The number of warehouse receipts remained at 0 [3] Basis and Spread - The basis of FG09, FG05, and FG01 contracts decreased, with daily decreases of 13, 15, and 16 yuan/ton respectively, and weekly decreases of 37, 35, and 36 yuan/ton [3] - The spreads between FG01 - 05, FG05 - 09, and FG09 - 01 contracts changed slightly [3] Fundamental Data - Glass daily melting volume and start - up rate remained unchanged week - on - week, with year - on - year decreases of 8.7% and 9.6% respectively [3] - Glass inventory increased by 3.1% week - on - week and 20.2% year - on - year [3] - Profits from different fuels showed different trends, with natural gas profit down 1.6% week - on - week, coal profit down 9.1%, and petroleum coke profit down 4.0% [3] Group 3: Market Judgment Market Situation - The market prices of glass in different regions changed, with decreases in some areas [5] Important Information - The domestic float glass market price was stable with a downward trend, and the production and sales in most regions were average [6] - Yihai Dabo (Dalian) Glass Co., Ltd. with a designed capacity of 520 tons/day stopped production [7] Logical Analysis - The glass price rose while soda ash fell, and the black varieties weakened, but the main glass contract exceeded 1,000 yuan [7] - The market was trading on the cold - repair expectation of glass, but there was uncertainty, and the price might continue to decline [7] - The policy had limited impact on the post - real - estate cycle products, and the downstream demand was expected to be weak in the short term [7] Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, pay attention to short - selling opportunities during the rebound [8] - For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [8] - For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [8] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts showing glass basis, spreads, positions, trading volumes, inventory, and profits over different time periods [9][13]