021-38676666 跨季扰动可控，久期行情渐显 [Table_Authors] 张紫睿(分析师) 本报告导读： 登记编号 S0880525040068 理财季末回表是确定性趋势，但考虑到目前信用债供需结构仍有支撑、跨季前后资 金面宽松预期，整体信用债回调压力或较小，跨季后信用债配置需求或快速修复， 中长端利差仍有压降空间。 投资要点： 题 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 债 券 研 究 专 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.16 [Table_Summary] 银行理财规模呈现明显的季末回落、季初回升特征，这与银行季末 考核压力密切相关，同时对信用利差产生一定扰动。季末时，理财 产品需将部分资产回表以满足存款等监管指标，导致理财规模下降， 信用债配置需求阶段性减弱，可能引发短期抛售压力。我们观察历 史季末理财规模变化和信用利差走势可以发现，季末两周的信用利 差上行概率较大，跨季后伴随理财配置力量回升，信用债配置需求 明显增加，带动信用利差有所压降。 二季度理财对信用债净买入规模并不突出，或与平滑估值整改有 关。4、5 月理财对信用债净买入规模分别为 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in wealth management growth in April, surpassing the highest point of 2024, with expectations for further growth in May [6][17] - The market share of wealth management is increasingly concentrated among wealth management companies due to stringent regulatory expectations, with small banks actively exiting the market [30][39] - The asset allocation is shifting towards bonds, with a slight increase in the proportion of bonds and non-standard assets, while cash and bank deposits continue to decline [47][50] Summary by Sections 1. Liability Side: Q1 Short-term Fluctuations, April Highs Surpass 2024 Peaks - As of the end of Q1 2025, the wealth management scale was 29.14 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 800 billion yuan from the beginning of the year [5][14] - The Q1 end reporting strength decreased year-on-year, but growth resumed in Q2 [19][6] - The best-performing category remains the "minimum holding period" type, which has seen significant growth due to its balance of liquidity and returns [24][5] 2. Asset Side: Passive Increase in Bond Holdings, Valuation Adjustments May Affect Risk Appetite - It is expected that the overall holding will continue to reflect a "decrease in deposits, increase in bonds" trend [47] - The proportion of cash and bank deposits has been declining for three consecutive quarters, while the proportion of bonds has slightly increased to 43.89% [47][48] - The proportion of wealth management supporting the real economy has dropped to below 70% [50] 3. Investment Recommendations - Wealth management subsidiaries of joint-stock banks can consolidate retail customer bases through differentiated advantages, with recommendations for Citic Bank and China Everbright Bank, while beneficiaries include China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank [8]