证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 7 月 9 日 晨会纪要 第一创业证券研究所 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、先进制造组： 作为通用汽车和特斯拉的电动汽车电池供应商，韩国电池制造商 LG 新能源于 7 月 7 日公布了其今年第二季度营业利润预期。LG 新能源预计，今年第二季度，尽管全球 电动汽车销售整体放缓，导致该公司营收将从去年同期的 6.16 万亿韩元（约合 45.06 亿美元）下降 9.7%至 5.56 万亿韩元，但其营业利润仍将同比飙升 152%至 4,922 亿 韩元，将远远高于去年同期的 1,953 亿韩元。 分析师：刘笑瑜 不过，值得注意的是，LG 新能源持续受益于美国《通胀削减法案》的先进制造生产 税收抵免（AMPC）政策。今年第二季度，LG 新能源通过 AMPC 获得的税收优惠总额 达 4,908 亿韩元。若排除这部分税收抵免优惠，该公司的营业利润仅为 14 亿韩元。 7 月 1 日，美国国会通过的《大而美法案》，7 月 4 日签署生效。其核心内容在于， 提前终止 IRA 下的部分关键清洁能源补贴，并大幅收紧对"受关注外国实体"的限 制。补贴的调整对于日韩电池企业影响远大 ...

福特汽车(F.N)：预计密歇根州的电动车电池工厂在税收和预算法案签署后，将有资格获得生产税收抵 免。 ...

金十数据7月4日讯，美国国会以微弱优势通过的"大而美法案"包括大幅削减《通胀削减法案》（IRA） 授予的绿色补贴，这将对美国的清洁能源产业造成沉重打击。特朗普倡导的法案预计将在7月4日美国独 立日之前签署成为法律。800多页的减税方案还包括其他有争议的政策，如大幅削减医疗补助计划，为 国防和驱逐移民提供新的资金。在新规定下，太阳能和风能行业将受到最严重的打击。投资和生产税收 抵免现在都将在2027年底开始逐步取消，而根据最初的IRA计划，这些措施最早将在2032年取消。 "大而美法案"即将签署 美国削减清洁能源补贴成定局 ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/04 ·传统能源成"大而美法案"赢家 太阳能和风能行业失去支持 金十数据7月4日讯，特朗普"大而美法案"结束了对太阳能和风能的长期支持，同时为石油、天然气和煤炭生产创造了友 好的环境。该法案目前已获参众两院通过，待特朗普签署成为法律。特朗普已经明确了他在能源生产方面的优先事项。 石油、天然气和煤炭成为赢家。该法向油气钻探开放了联邦土地和水域，规定在15年内在墨西哥湾进行30次租赁销售， 每年在9个州的土地上进行30多次租赁销售，并允许该行业进入阿拉斯加。该法还削减了生产商在联邦土地上开采油气 时向政府支付的特许权使用费。法案逐步取消了风能和太阳能的清洁电力投资和生产税收抵免，2027年后投入使用的项 目将不再有资格获得税收抵免。 ·欧佩克+讨论8月继续增产41.1万桶/日 金十数据7月4日讯，据不愿透露姓名的与会代表称，欧佩克+已开始讨论8月增产41.1万桶/日，预计将在本周末线上会 议中进一步商讨。沙特及其合作伙伴此前已经批准了5月、6月和7月相同规模的增产，他们正在加快恢复停产的产量， 以夺回全球市场份额。欧佩克+截至上周已将重点放在第四次增产41.1万桶 ...

金十数据7月4日讯，特朗普"大而美法案"结束了对太阳能和风能的长期支持，同时为石油、天然气和煤 炭生产创造了友好的环境。该法案目前已获参众两院通过，待特朗普签署成为法律。特朗普已经明确了 他在能源生产方面的优先事项。石油、天然气和煤炭成为赢家。该法向油气钻探开放了联邦土地和水 域，规定在15年内在墨西哥湾进行30次租赁销售，每年在9个州的土地上进行30多次租赁销售，并允许 该行业进入阿拉斯加。该法还削减了生产商在联邦土地上开采油气时向政府支付的特许权使用费。法案 逐步取消了风能和太阳能的清洁电力投资和生产税收抵免，2027年后投入使用的项目将不再有资格获得 税收抵免。 传统能源成"大而美法案"赢家 太阳能和风能行业失去支持 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The passage of the 45Z amendment bill by the US House of Representatives is expected to have a significant impact on the biodiesel and renewable diesel industries, potentially increasing the demand for North American vegetable oil raw materials and supporting the price of CBOT soybean oil [1][2][7] - The restrictions on tax credits for foreign entities may reduce trade volume and overseas raw material demand, while the small refinery exemption policy may have a complex impact on raw material demand in the short and long term [10][18][20] - The future RVO policy in the US is still being determined, and its implementation will affect the total demand for renewable energy, which is also an important factor affecting the price of US soybean oil [17] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Passage of the 45Z Amendment Bill - On May 22, the US House of Representatives passed a reconciliation bill including provisions to update and extend the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit. The bill will now be considered by the Senate [1] 2. Specific Provisions and Their Impacts 2.1 Extension of 45Z Credit - The 45Z credit will be extended to the end of 2031, which is beneficial for the continuous development of the biodiesel and renewable diesel industries and the demand for vegetable oil raw materials [2] 2.2 Raw Material Source Requirement - Raw materials must be produced or grown in the US, Mexico, and Canada, which is expected to increase the demand for North American crops and reduce the import of non - North American raw materials. In 2024, vegetable oil raw materials were mainly from North America, while animal fats and yellow greases still had imports from other regions. The policy may increase the use of canola oil and soybean oil [3][4] 2.3 Adjustment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Calculation - The adjustment of the life - cycle greenhouse gas emissions calculation to exclude indirect land - use change emissions is expected to lower the carbon emission coefficient of vegetable oils, allowing for more subsidies. For example, the subsidy for producing renewable diesel with soybean oil is estimated to increase from $0.23 per gallon to $0.52 per gallon, which is beneficial for supporting the price of CBOT soybean oil [7] 2.4 Restrictions on Foreign Entities for Tax Credits - Tax credits for specific foreign entities are restricted. If a taxpayer is a specific foreign entity, no credit will be allowed after the enactment date. For entities affected by foreign influence, no credit will be allowed two years after the enactment date. This may reduce the trade volume of US biodiesel and renewable diesel and affect the demand for overseas raw materials [10][11][13] 3. Demand Performance 3.1 Raw Material Demand in 2025 - From January - February 2025, the total consumption of US biodiesel raw materials decreased by 23.9% year - on - year. Among them, vegetable oil consumption decreased by 31.7%, soybean oil consumption decreased by 33.4%, canola oil consumption decreased by 57.6%, and corn oil consumption remained flat [5] 3.2 Trade Volume in 2025 - From January - March 2025, US biodiesel imports decreased by 90% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 46% year - on - year. From January - February 2025, the net import of US renewable diesel became a net export, mainly to European countries, and the import from Singapore decreased by 94% year - on - year [16] 4. Other Policies to Be Concerned 4.1 RVO Policy - The US 2026 and subsequent RVO policies are still being determined. The market's expected range for the biodiesel RVO varies widely, and the price of US soybean oil has been trading on RVO - related themes. The EPA submitted a proposed rule to the White House Office of Management and Budget on May 14, and subsequent policy implementation needs to be monitored [17] 4.2 Small Refinery Exemption Policy - The news of small refinery exemptions is uncertain. If implemented, it may reduce current demand but increase future demand. The 13.6 billion gallons of exemption volume, when allocated to biodiesel at a 30% - 50% ratio, is expected to result in a total raw material demand range of 148 - 246 million tons. If 100% is used for biodiesel - produced RIN substitution, the total raw material demand is 493 million tons [18][19][20]

草案显示，美国众议院税务委员会提出计划，取消2025年12月31日之后开始建设项目的氢气生产税收抵 免。 ...

Aemetis (AMTX) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 08, 2025 02:00 PM ET Speaker0 Day, everyone. Welcome to the Aemetis First Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Review Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Todd Waltz, the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Aemetis. Mr. Waltz, you may begin. Speak ...

智通财经4月28日电，韩国总统候选人李在明称，承诺对国内生产并销售的芯片提供至高10%的生产税 收抵免。 ...