来源：市场资讯 （来源：申万宏源宏观） 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：特朗普下调食品关税，高市早苗推出财政刺激草案 权益资产多数下跌，大宗商品多数下跌。恒生科技下跌7.2%，纳指下跌2.7%；10Y美债收益率下行8.0bp至4.06%；美元指数上涨0.9%至100.15，离岸人民 币微贬至7.11；WTI原油大跌3.4%至58.1美元/桶，COMEX黄金持平于4085.2美元/盎司。 特朗普下调食品关税，日本高市早苗推出财政刺激草案。11月13日，美国宣布与阿根廷、厄瓜多尔、危地马拉、萨尔瓦多达成贸易框架协议，下调食品关 税。11月21日，日本政府公布21.3万亿日元综合经济刺激草案，旨在通过民生补贴、危机管理投资、国防支出拉动GDP。 9月美国非农就业超预期，但失业率上行，美联储10月纪要显示官员观点分化。美国9月非农新增就业人数为11.9万人，超市场预期，但失业率上行至 4.4%；美联储10月会议纪要显示，"许多"（many）参会者支持保持利率不变，仅几位（several）参会者认为降息是合适的。 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰"。 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：特朗普下调食品关 ...

尽管政府重启后，明年第一季度经济增长可能因此回升2.2个百分点，但仍将有约110亿美元的经济活动 遭受永久性损失。作为对比，2018至2019年曾持续35天的史上最长政府停摆（仅影响部分机构）对GDP 的影响仅为0.02%，远低于本次停摆所造成的冲击。 另外美国高级官员周四表示，已与多个拉丁美洲国家签署贸易协议，将对部分咖啡及水果等进口商品实 施关税减免。在当前经济环境下，咖啡已成为民众评判特朗普政府经济政策时"负担能力危机"的一个象 征，正如鸡蛋在拜登政府时期所代表的角色。 【最新现货白银行情解析】 周四在试探前期高点54.5后，出现了大跌空间，最低在52附近，不过午夜和早盘已经出现了上涨，收盘 在53附近，所以可以看到趋势还是趋势，上涨依旧是主力行为。 周五白银价格在早盘最后一盘中跃升，准备触及关键阻力位54.40美元，主要看涨趋势占主导地位，并 在短期基础上与支撑该赛道的小趋势线一起交易，此外，相对强弱指标上出现积极的重叠信号，在达到 超卖水平后，与价格走势相比被夸大了，表明开始形成正背离，这加强了看涨势头。 今日周日，白银市场休市。周三白银突破50.02-51.07美元的关键回撤区域，进一步强化了白银 ...

Core Points - The White House has issued a 98-page document detailing exemptions to tariffs on a wide range of products, indicating a significant rollback of tariffs [1][3] - Products exempted from tariffs include coffee, bananas, tomatoes, avocados, mangoes, limes, beef, and copper, which are heavily imported into the United States [2][4] - This move is seen as an effort by the White House to address affordability concerns in American politics and to lower the costs of products that have been increasing for consumers [3][4]

COUPON, BE HAPPEN. JONATHAN: 10 YEAR AND 30 YEAR YIELD JUST FALLEN. SURVEILLANCE THIS MORNING, MAKING AMERICA AFFORD AFNLT.AFFORDABILITY THEY CALL IT WAS A CON JOB BY THE DEMOCRATS. WE DID A GREAT JOB ON GROCERIES AND AFFORDABILITY. THE ONLY PROBLEM IS THE FAKE NEWS.YOU PEOPLE DON'T WANT TO REPORT IT. MY ADMINISTRATION AND OUR PARTNERS IN CONGRESS WILL CONTINUE OUR WORK TO LOWER THE COST OF LIVING. RESTORE PUBLIC SAFETY, GROW OUR ECONOMY, AND MAKE AMERICA AFFORDABLE AGAIN.JONATHAN: HERE'S THE LATEST. PRESID ...

Core Points - The Trump administration has reached a trade agreement framework with Argentina, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Ecuador, which includes tariff reductions on certain goods [1][5] - The agreement aims to enhance the ability of U.S. companies to sell industrial and agricultural products in these countries [4] - Specific goods, such as coffee and bananas from Ecuador, are expected to benefit from tariff exemptions [2][5] Group 1: Tariff Reductions - Tariff rates for most goods from Guatemala, El Salvador, and Argentina will remain at 10%, while Ecuador's tariff rate will stay at 15%, with some goods receiving tariff reductions [1][5] - Approximately 70% of goods exported from Guatemala to the U.S. will be exempt from tariffs due to the inability to produce these goods domestically [5] Group 2: Focus on Beef - The agreement with Argentina emphasizes improving market access for beef, with a commitment to mutually beneficial trade conditions [6] - The U.S. is experiencing significant increases in beef prices, with some products rising by 12% to 18% year-over-year [6] - The agreement is expected to exempt Argentine beef from a 10% import tariff, although it may not change the existing export quota limitations for Argentine beef to the U.S. [7] Group 3: Broader Trade Negotiations - The U.S. Trade Representative is also engaging in discussions with Switzerland, indicating ongoing efforts to negotiate trade agreements that may include tariff reductions [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the price trends and key support and resistance levels of various futures contracts on November 13, 2025 [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro News and Trading Alerts - China - Spain leaders met and witnessed the signing of 10 cooperation documents in economic, technological, and educational fields [7]. - Chinese and US economic officials emphasized the importance of economic and trade cooperation [7]. - Chinese officials welcomed foreign retail enterprises to invest in China [7]. - Seven Chinese government departments jointly issued an opinion to strengthen science and technology education in primary and secondary schools [7]. - The US House of Representatives will vote on a temporary appropriation bill, potentially ending the 43 - day government shutdown [8]. - The US Treasury Secretary announced upcoming "substantial" tariff news and a "tariff dividend" plan [8]. - Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts [8]. 2. Commodity Futures - related Information - On November 12, US and Brent crude oil futures prices fell, with OPEC lowering its global oil demand forecast [9]. - On November 12, international precious metal futures generally rose, driven by factors such as the approaching end of the US government shutdown and geopolitical risks [9]. - On November 12, most London base metals rose [10]. - The EIA adjusted its 2025 and 2026 crude oil price forecasts [10]. - The IEA believes that global oil and gas demand may continue to grow until 2050 [11]. - OPEC expects the oil market to achieve supply - demand balance in 2026 [11]. - The Simandou iron ore project officially started production, with proven reserves of 4.4 billion tons [11]. - On November 12, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar and the RMB central parity rate both rose [11]. - On November 12, the US dollar index fell slightly, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance [12]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast 3.1 Stock Index Futures - On November 12, the main contracts of stock index futures showed different trends, with overall weak rebounds [12][13][14]. - A - share markets were volatile on November 12, with some sectors rising and others falling [14]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange International Investors Conference was held, with officials announcing measures to optimize the capital market [15][16]. - Overseas investors' holdings of A - shares have increased, and institutions are generally optimistic about A - shares in 2026 [15][16]. - On November 12, the Hong Kong stock market rose, with different performances among sectors [16]. - On November 12, US and European stock markets showed different trends, and institutions are cautious about the future performance of US stocks [17]. - It is expected that stock index futures will oscillate and consolidate on November 13, 2025, and will have wide - range oscillations in November [18]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On November 12, the main contracts of ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures rose slightly, with weak rebounds [33][39]. - On November 12, the central bank conducted 195.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 130 billion yuan [34]. - On November 12, short - term Shibor rates declined [34]. - It is expected that the main contracts of ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures will have wide - range oscillations on November 13, 2025 [36][40]. 3.3 Precious Metal Futures - On November 12, the main contract of gold futures had a slight decline, with weakening upward momentum [40]. - On November 12, the main contract of silver futures rose significantly, hitting a record high [48]. - It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contracts of gold and silver futures will have strong wide - range oscillations, and the silver futures will hit a record high. On November 13, 2025, both are expected to oscillate strongly [40][41][49][50]. 3.4 Base Metal Futures - On November 12, the main contracts of copper, aluminum, and tin futures rose slightly, with varying degrees of upward momentum [53][57][61]. - It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contracts of copper, aluminum, and tin futures will have strong wide - range oscillations. On November 13, 2025, they are expected to oscillate strongly [53][57][61]. 3.5 Other Commodity Futures - On November 12, the main contracts of polysilicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, crude oil, fuel oil, and PTA futures showed different trends [65][66][72][75][77][84][89][94][96]. - It is expected that on November 13, 2025, polysilicon and lithium carbonate futures will have wide - range oscillations; rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, and PTA futures will oscillate weakly; crude oil and fuel oil futures will oscillate weakly [66][73][75][77][85][89][94][96].

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 12405, with a reported price of 12535, reflecting a 5.04% increase from the opening price of 12092 [1] - The highest price reached today was 12569, while the lowest was 12036, indicating a short-term volatile trading pattern [1] - The upward trend in silver prices has surpassed previous highs, suggesting continued bullish sentiment in the market [3] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that the economy was in good shape before the government shutdown, describing the situation as a "small hiccup" [1] - Bessent expects that U.S. citizens will feel better about the economy in the first and second quarters of next year, with actual income projected to rise [1] - The Treasury Department is closely monitoring potential long-term changes in demand for U.S. Treasury bonds and will adjust auction sizes accordingly [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. Supreme Court is questioning the legality of the "global tariffs" policy implemented by former President Trump, which could lead to the cancellation of tariffs affecting various retail brands [1][3] - A ruling against Trump could result in the government needing to refund over $100 billion to importers, alleviating a significant burden on companies [1][3] - Non-essential consumer goods stocks are performing well, with notable increases in companies like Lululemon (up 4.3%), Williams Sonoma (up 2.6%), Kohl's (up 8.9%), Macy's (up 7%), and Mattel (up 4%) [1] Group 2 - The hope for tariff reductions is also boosting the stock prices of major automakers like General Motors and Ford, despite them not being directly affected by the ruling [2] - Analysts suggest that a favorable ruling for retailers could enhance consumer purchasing power, indirectly benefiting automobile sales [2] - The Supreme Court's questioning during the hearings indicates skepticism about Trump's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs, suggesting potential overreach [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. Supreme Court is questioning the legality of tariffs imposed by former President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which could lead to the cancellation of tariffs affecting various retail brands [1][3] - A ruling against the tariffs may result in the government needing to refund over $100 billion to importers, alleviating a significant burden on companies [1][3] - Non-essential consumer goods stocks have performed well, with notable increases in companies like Lululemon (up 4.3%), Williams Sonoma (up 2.6%), Kohl's (up 8.9%), Macy's (up 7%), and Mattel (up 4%) [1] Group 2 - Major automotive manufacturers such as General Motors and Ford have seen their stock prices rise due to hopes of tariff reductions, which could indirectly boost consumer spending and automotive sales [2] - Analysts suggest that a favorable ruling for retailers could enhance consumer purchasing power, potentially benefiting the automotive sector [2] Group 3 - During a two-and-a-half-hour hearing, several Supreme Court justices expressed skepticism about Trump's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs, indicating a possible overreach of authority [3] - The tariffs in question, announced on April 2, 2025, imposed rates between 10% and 50% on most U.S. imports, justified by claims of addressing trade deficits and combating fentanyl smuggling [3] - Previous lower court rulings have deemed these tariffs illegal, making this case one of the most significant trade law disputes in recent Supreme Court history [3]

Core Viewpoint - Shennong Agriculture has expressed optimism about the supportive policies from the Hainan Free Trade Zone, which are expected to enhance its capabilities in seed resource collection, protection, and utilization [2] Group 1: Policy Support - The Hainan Free Trade Zone has introduced multi-dimensional supporting policies, including industry support, tariff reductions, tax incentives, and talent introduction [2] - These policies are anticipated to benefit the company's aquatic industry park project, particularly in the establishment of a breeding center, germplasm resource bank, and seedling breeding base [2] Group 2: Business Development - The company plans to closely monitor policy developments and study policy details to align with its existing business layout and resource advantages [2] - There is a focus on actively exploring potential business opportunities and new growth points to promote sustainable and steady development [2]