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Ultima Markets杰克逊霍尔前持稳;亚洲股市延续涨势,加密货币回落
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 10:44
Group 1 - Global markets are generally flat as investors await key developments, including the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting and Ukraine peace talks [1] - Oil prices and the US dollar are fluctuating within a narrow range, reflecting rising geopolitical uncertainty and low risk sentiment [1] Group 2 - Asian stock markets continue to rise, driven by expectations of monetary easing, with Japan's Nikkei index and Taiwan's stock index reaching new highs, and Chinese blue-chip stocks climbing to their strongest level in nearly 10 months [2] - The recent rally is supported by strong earnings reports from US tech stocks and an 85% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [2] - However, an unexpected rise in the Producer Price Index (PPI) has dampened optimism, raising concerns that cost pressures may eventually pass through to consumers, potentially delaying or reducing the extent of Fed rate cuts [2] Group 3 - Cautious sentiment prevails ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting, with global stock markets slightly declining and cryptocurrencies experiencing larger pullbacks due to their higher sensitivity to risk appetite [3] - The recent pullback in stocks and cryptocurrencies is primarily attributed to profit-taking after a strong rebound, as the market adopts a more cautious stance before key events [3] Group 4 - Bitcoin faces profit-taking pressure around the $125,000 mark, but as long as the support level at $112,000 holds, the medium-term upward trend remains intact [5] - A significant sell-off in Bitcoin may require stronger risk aversion catalysts, likely dependent on the outcomes of the Jackson Hole meeting [6] Group 5 - Market attention is now focused on the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting, where Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to provide key signals regarding monetary policy outlook [7] - Investors are looking for confirmation of a September rate cut, but a cautious tone from Powell, especially in light of the unexpected rise in US producer prices, could temper dovish expectations [7] - Upcoming inflation and employment data in the US over the next few weeks will also play a decisive role in shaping the policy path for the remainder of the year [7]
日本央行将再次加息 美元/日元下行旅程开启
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-15 02:52
Group 1 - The Japanese yen has maintained strength against the weak US dollar for the third consecutive day, with the latest USD/JPY exchange rate at 146.2680, down 0.25% [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again, supported by weakened risk sentiment and new dollar sell-offs, increasing downward pressure on the USD/JPY currency pair [1] - The BoJ's recent monetary policy meeting summary expressed concerns about US trade policies potentially harming Japan's economic growth, with expectations of a slowdown to near potential growth levels before a gradual recovery [1] Group 2 - Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in April, with a year-on-year increase of 4%, which is lower than the previous month's 4.2%, but this had limited impact on the yen [2] - The US dollar is struggling to attract buyers due to lower-than-expected US consumer inflation data, reinforcing market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates at least twice in 2025 [2] - The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US decreased slightly from 2.4% to 2.3% year-on-year in April, while the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.8%, in line with expectations [2] Group 3 - The cloud chart indicators for the USD/JPY exchange rate limit upward movement, with declines stalling near the May 1 high [3] - Resistance levels are identified at 147.60 (cloud bottom), 147.77 (Bollinger band upper limit), and 148.65 to 148.70 (December 3 and March 31 lows) [3] - Support levels are noted at 145.73 (May 1 high), 145.50 (conversion line), and 145 (psychological level) [3]