Core Viewpoint - The decline of the US dollar appears to be linked to the consumer price index meeting expectations, according to Monex USA's trading director Juan Perez [1] Group 1 - The US dollar has experienced a decline [1] - The consumer price index has aligned with market expectations [1]

日本总务省当地时间7月25日公布初步统计数据显示，除生鲜食品外，东京都23区7月份消费者物价指数 同比上涨2.9%。（央视新闻） ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% in June, surpassing market expectations, but this rise may be influenced by tariff-induced price increases rather than an actual boost in consumer purchasing power [1] - In June, core retail sales (excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services) grew by 0.5%, up from a downwardly revised 0.2% in May, indicating a moderate slowdown in consumer spending despite some positive signals [1] - Among 13 major retail categories, 10 experienced growth, with auto sales rebounding after two months of decline, contributing significantly to overall growth [1] Group 2 - The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year in June, aligning with market expectations, while core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3% [2] - The producer price index (PPI) did not meet expectations, primarily due to a significant decline in service prices, indicating that businesses are absorbing some of the costs from tariff increases [2] - The final demand PPI remained flat month-on-month, with the year-on-year increase dropping from 2.7% in May to 2.3% in June [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - The Fed's expected timing of interest rate cuts is delayed, but due to the slower - than - expected bond - issuing pace of the US Treasury, combined with continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world and unresolved geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on pullbacks [1]. Summary by Relevant Information Gold and Silver Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 777.46 yuan/g, with a change of 8.16 yuan compared to a certain reference and 5.95 yuan compared to another reference. The trading volume was 38,158, and the open interest was 214,998 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3370.30, the trading volume was 180,941, and the open interest was 254,790. The inventory was 36,748,662.05 troy ounces [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3332.15 dollars/ounce, with a change of 19.00 dollars compared to a certain reference and - 0.95 dollars compared to another reference [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 9172.00 yuan/kg, the trading volume was 1,017,134, and the open interest was 3,243,004 [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 38.41 dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 21,699, and the open interest was 131,773. The inventory was 499,281,076.24 troy ounces [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 37.50 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.50 dollars compared to a certain reference and 2.11 dollars compared to another reference [1]. Important Information - **Tariff Policies**: The EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on 72 billion euros of US goods. Trump threatens Russia with 100% tariffs if an agreement is not reached within 50 days. Brazil seeks to reduce tariffs to 30% and delay for 90 days. The Trump administration imposes a 17% anti - dumping tariff on Mexican tomatoes [1]. - **US Treasury's Plan**: The US Treasury plans to increase cash reserves to 500 billion and 850 billion dollars by the end of July and September respectively, through increasing the weekly benchmark Treasury auction scale [1]. - **Central Bank Policies and Economic Data**: - The Fed's July interest rate cut probability is low due to higher - than - expected non - farm payrolls in June, but the expected timing of rate cuts is still September/December [1]. - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June. The market expects 1 - 2 more rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in June and may cut rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January and may reduce quarterly Treasury purchases from 400 billion to 200 billion yen starting in April 2026 [1]. Trading Strategy - For London gold, focus on the support level around 3150 - 3250 and the resistance level around 3500 - 3700. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 730 - 750 and the resistance level around 840 - 900. For London silver, focus on the support level around 34 - 35 and the resistance level around 38 - 40. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 830 - 8600 and the resistance level around 9000 - 10000 [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chairman, Philip Lowe, indicated that the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) is experiencing significant volatility, suggesting that quarterly data may present a more accurate reflection of economic conditions [1] Group 1 - The RBA is seeking to ensure that the economy aligns with expected pathways [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Thailand's overall consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.25% year-on-year in June, which is a larger decline than the Reuters survey expectation of a 0.10% decrease [1]

日本总务省6月20日公布的5月消费者物价指数（生鲜食品除外）较上年同期上涨3.7%，涨幅较4月的 3.5%有所扩大。 ...

【资讯导读】 ·经合组织下调经济增长预期 ·金砖国家会议通过多项合作倡议 ·韩国李在明正式成为新任总统 ·白宫重申对大规模税收与支出法案的支持 【市场资讯】 ·受特朗普关税政策及其它因素影响，经合组织已将美国2025年的经济增长预测下调至1.6%，并预计 2026年增长率为1.5%。此外，全球经济增速预计降至2.9%，通胀可能达到3.2%。 ·第十一届金砖国家通信部长会议成功召开，各方共同签署了关于未来网络研究和空间资源可持续发展 的多项合作协议。 ·美国总统特朗普宣布，自2025年6月4日凌晨起，进口钢铁、铝及其制品的关税将从现有的25%上调至 50%。来自英国的同类产品将继续适用25%的税率。 ·距离7月8日关税恢复期限仅剩五周，特朗普政府发出紧急信函要求各国在6月4日前提交贸易谈判最佳 方案。 ·尽管埃隆·马斯克公开批评称一项大规模税收与支出法案"荒谬可笑"，但白宫新闻秘书莱维特表示，这 不会影响总统特朗普对该法案的支持。马斯克警告说，该法案可能导致预算赤字大幅增加。 ·日本财务省最新数据显示，在最近一次价值2.6万亿日元的10年期国债拍卖中，投标倍数跃升至3.66， 创下自2024年4月以来的新高。这 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs reported a significant increase in the national consumer price index for April, with rice prices soaring by 98.4% compared to the same period last year, marking the largest increase since comparable data began in 1971 [1]

Group 1 - The Japanese yen has maintained strength against the weak US dollar for the third consecutive day, with the latest USD/JPY exchange rate at 146.2680, down 0.25% [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again, supported by weakened risk sentiment and new dollar sell-offs, increasing downward pressure on the USD/JPY currency pair [1] - The BoJ's recent monetary policy meeting summary expressed concerns about US trade policies potentially harming Japan's economic growth, with expectations of a slowdown to near potential growth levels before a gradual recovery [1] Group 2 - Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in April, with a year-on-year increase of 4%, which is lower than the previous month's 4.2%, but this had limited impact on the yen [2] - The US dollar is struggling to attract buyers due to lower-than-expected US consumer inflation data, reinforcing market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates at least twice in 2025 [2] - The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US decreased slightly from 2.4% to 2.3% year-on-year in April, while the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.8%, in line with expectations [2] Group 3 - The cloud chart indicators for the USD/JPY exchange rate limit upward movement, with declines stalling near the May 1 high [3] - Resistance levels are identified at 147.60 (cloud bottom), 147.77 (Bollinger band upper limit), and 148.65 to 148.70 (December 3 and March 31 lows) [3] - Support levels are noted at 145.73 (May 1 high), 145.50 (conversion line), and 145 (psychological level) [3]