目前日本央行陷入两难境地：通胀持续高于政策目标，而受美国关税冲击，日本GDP增长数据正持续走 弱。截至9月的三个月内，日本GDP出现六个季度以来首次收缩，环比下降0.4%，年化降幅达1.8%。 美元/日元技术分析 日线相对强弱指数（RSI）显示出轻微超买信号，这抑制了交易员对美元/日元货币对建立新的看涨头寸 的意愿。因此，在为下一波上涨布局之前，谨慎的做法是等待短期内出现一定幅度的盘整或小幅回调。 与此同时，当前任何修正性下跌都可能在157.00关口略下方获得初步支撑，随后是156.65-156.60区域； 若跌破该区域，美元对日元汇率可能进一步跌向156.00关口。这一水平将成为关键支撑位，一旦失守， 将为更大幅度的下跌打开空间。 反之，若上行，158.00将构成首个阻力位，突破该水平后，美元兑日元有望进一步升向158.50附近的下 一个重要阻力区。届时多头动能可能继续扩大，推动汇价挑战1月初的高点，即接近159.00区域。 周五（11月21日）亚洲时段，美元/日元小幅回落，最新美元兑日元汇率徘徊在157.20附近，日本10月核 心通胀率以自7月以来最快速度攀升，这为日本央行加息提供了依据。由于市场担忧日本 ...

美元/日元技术分析 每日相对强弱指数(RSI)出现轻微超买状况，阻碍交易者对美元/日元货币对进行新的看涨押注。这使得 谨慎的做法是等待一些近期盘整或小幅回调，然后再为任何进一步的升值走势做准备。 若植田最终投票支持加息，他将与央行内部日益壮大的鹰派力量形成合力。在10月的政策会议上，已有 两位委员（高田创和田村直树）因呼吁加息而投下反对票。 此外，审议委员小枝淳子近日也发表了偏鹰言论，显示政策层面对通胀风险的担忧正在升温。尽管副行 长冰见野良三在上次会议中支持维持利率不变，但其本身也被视为倾向鹰派。 目前，央行政策委员会中仅有委员野口旭仍坚定持鸽派立场。新任委员增一行则被视为中间派，预计将 追随以植田和男为首的主流意见。 周五（11月21日）亚洲时段，美元/日元在157.40附近走低，最新美元兑日元汇率报157.3700，跌幅 0.06%，受干预担忧影响，日元兑美元走强。日本央行内部鹰声四起，12月加息或提上议程。 日本央行行长植田和男在国会听证会上发出关键信号，称日元持续疲软可能进一步推高通胀。他指出， 因日元走弱而上升的进口价格，正促使企业更愿意提高工资和产品价格。 植田强调，汇率波动对物价的影响正变得比 ...

Group 1 - The USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 153.9400, following a downward trend influenced by strong US employment data and risk appetite in the market [1] - The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) meeting minutes from September indicate a cautious approach to interest rate hikes, with policymakers weighing inflation dynamics and trade risks [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the timing of the next BoJ interest rate hike, as the new Prime Minister, Kishida Fumio, is expected to implement aggressive fiscal spending plans [1] Group 2 - The US dollar index reached its highest level since May, supported by reduced bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [2] - The ongoing US government shutdown, now in its 36th day, has created a data vacuum, leading to a murky economic outlook [2] - Economists warn that the longer the shutdown persists, the higher the risk of the fragile economy transitioning from bending to breaking [2] Group 3 - Technically, the USD/JPY has faced strong resistance in the 154.40-154.45 range, which is now a key support level [3] - A breakthrough above this resistance could target the psychological level of 155.00, with potential follow-up buying paving the way to 155.60-155.65 [3] - Conversely, the 153.65 area may provide some support before a potential drop to the 153.00-152.95 range, with further declines targeting 152.55-152.50 and 152.00 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing slight fluctuations, with concerns over the U.S. government shutdown and potential intervention by Japanese authorities limiting further losses for the yen [1][2]. Group 1: Market Movements - As of November 4, the USD/JPY is trading around 154.1900, down 0.01% from an opening price of 154.2100, maintaining the previous day's closing level [1]. - The Federal Reserve's potential decision to keep interest rates unchanged in December has contributed to a slight increase in the USD/JPY [1]. Group 2: Economic Concerns - There are worries regarding the economic risks associated with a prolonged U.S. government shutdown, which may impact market sentiment [1]. - Speculation about possible intervention by Japanese authorities to prevent further depreciation of the yen is also influencing market dynamics [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - A technical breakout above the 153.25-153.30 resistance and the psychological level of 154.00 is seen as a key trigger for bullish sentiment in USD/JPY [2]. - Indicators on the daily chart remain comfortably in positive territory, supporting a potential move towards mid-term resistance levels of 154.75-154.80 and the psychological barrier of 155.00 [2]. - Any corrective pullback below 154.00 may find support around the previous low of approximately 153.65, with further support levels at 153.30-153.25 and 153.00 [2].

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing fluctuations, currently trading around 153.8000, with a slight decline of 0.19% as the market digests previous gains and awaits further signals regarding interest rate changes in Japan [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The USD/JPY opened at 154.1100 and closed the previous trading day at 154.1200, indicating a slight downward movement after reaching an eight-month high due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [1]. - The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain its current policy has created uncertainty regarding the timing of future interest rate hikes, which may limit the appreciation of the yen [1]. - The market is currently cautious, preferring to wait for more information about potential interest rate hikes in December or early next year, especially in light of the new Prime Minister's expected aggressive fiscal spending plans [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY remains below the monthly high resistance zone of 153.25-153.30, with a potential for bearish trading if it breaks below the 152.00 level [2]. - A significant drop below 152.00 could lead to further declines towards the key support levels of 151.10-151.00, confirming a bearish trend [2]. - Conversely, if the USD/JPY can break through the 153.25-153.30 resistance zone, it may attempt to reclaim the 154.00 level, with potential extensions towards 154.50 and 154.75-154.80 [2].

Group 1 - The USD/JPY pair is currently trading around 151.1000, with a 0.24% increase from the previous close of 150.7400, as the Japanese yen remains under pressure due to delayed expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike [1] - The yen has declined against the dollar for three consecutive days, with limited downside ahead of the upcoming Japanese parliamentary election to appoint a new Prime Minister [1] - The anticipated appointment of Seiko Noda as Japan's first female Prime Minister contrasts with dovish expectations from the US Federal Reserve, which may limit the dollar's gains against the yen [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates a positive outlook for USD/JPY, with potential appreciation towards the support level of 151.75, which includes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from recent monthly highs and the 200-hour simple moving average [2] - A sustained breakout above this level could lead to further increases towards the 152.00 level and the resistance area of 152.25, which is the intersection of the monthly peak's Fibonacci retracement and the 200-hour simple moving average [2] - Immediate support is expected in the 150.50-150.45 range, with further support at 150.25 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and the psychological level of 150.00 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY currency pair is experiencing upward momentum, approaching the 148.00 level, supported by a slight increase in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, but concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and Trump's latest tariff threats are dampening market sentiment, providing support for the safe-haven yen [1]. Technical Overview - A breakout above the 148.00 level is seen as a key trigger for bullish sentiment in USD/JPY, with potential upward movement towards the significant 200-day simple moving average (SMA) just above 149.00, and further buying could lead to attempts to reclaim the psychological level of 150.00 [4]. - Support is identified at the 147.80 level, with a potential decline below this support leading to further drops towards the 147.30 area and ultimately the 147.00 level, which would negate the positive outlook and shift the short-term trend to bearish [5]. Fundamental Overview - Recent economic data includes a 3.0% increase in AUD construction work done, a GfK consumer confidence survey in the Eurozone showing -23.6, and a notable decline in the US MBA mortgage applications by 1.4% [6]. - President Trump's unprecedented order to dismiss Cook shocked investors, leading to initial declines in the dollar, which later rebounded after Cook's commitment to remain in position [6]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish remarks indicated a higher likelihood of rate cuts in the coming months, contributing to a decline in USD/JPY by over 1%, while the Bank of Japan's governor raised concerns about inflation from wage increases, hinting at conditions for further rate hikes [7].

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is planning to reduce its monthly purchases of Japanese government bonds by approximately 400 billion yen each quarter, with a proposal to cut this to about 200 billion yen per month starting from April 2026 [1] - The USD/JPY currency pair is experiencing buying interest, attributed to a positive risk sentiment that is weakening the safe-haven yen ahead of the Bank of Japan's decision [2] - Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran are supporting the US dollar, contributing to the rise of the USD/JPY pair [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that the USD/JPY pair failed to maintain levels above the psychological barrier of 145.00, leading to a potential decline towards support levels at 142.65 and 142.35 [1] - A recovery in the Asian session peaked around the 143.50-143.55 area, which may face resistance near the 144.00 level [1] - If the USD/JPY pair surpasses the 144.00 level, it could trigger short covering, pushing the currency pair towards the 144.50 area and potentially reaching 145.00 [1]

Group 1 - The Japanese yen has maintained strength against the weak US dollar for the third consecutive day, with the latest USD/JPY exchange rate at 146.2680, down 0.25% [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again, supported by weakened risk sentiment and new dollar sell-offs, increasing downward pressure on the USD/JPY currency pair [1] - The BoJ's recent monetary policy meeting summary expressed concerns about US trade policies potentially harming Japan's economic growth, with expectations of a slowdown to near potential growth levels before a gradual recovery [1] Group 2 - Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in April, with a year-on-year increase of 4%, which is lower than the previous month's 4.2%, but this had limited impact on the yen [2] - The US dollar is struggling to attract buyers due to lower-than-expected US consumer inflation data, reinforcing market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates at least twice in 2025 [2] - The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US decreased slightly from 2.4% to 2.3% year-on-year in April, while the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.8%, in line with expectations [2] Group 3 - The cloud chart indicators for the USD/JPY exchange rate limit upward movement, with declines stalling near the May 1 high [3] - Resistance levels are identified at 147.60 (cloud bottom), 147.77 (Bollinger band upper limit), and 148.65 to 148.70 (December 3 and March 31 lows) [3] - Support levels are noted at 145.73 (May 1 high), 145.50 (conversion line), and 145 (psychological level) [3]