日本东京都23区9月核心CPI同比上涨2.5% 中新网东京9月26日电 (记者 朱晨曦)日本总务省26日公布的统计数据显示，9月份日本东京都23区去除 生鲜食品后的核心消费价格指数(CPI)为110.0，同比上涨2.5%。 数据显示，食品价格上涨是9月份东京都23区核心CPI上涨的主要推动力。当月，普通粳米价格同比上 涨46.9%。日本民众日常食谱中常见的饭团价格同比上涨17.7%。此外，寿司价格同比上涨10.0%；巧克 力价格同比上涨53.8%；咖啡豆价格同比上涨47.8%；鸡肉价格同比上涨14.1%；鸡蛋价格同比上涨 13.7%。 经济学家预计，今年下半年起日本物价涨势将趋于放缓。在此形势下，日本央行如何择机加息值得关 注。 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：熊思怡 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 东京都23区CPI数据是日本全国CPI的先行指标，9月份的日本全国CPI将于10月24日公布。(完) ...

Group 1 - The Nikkei 225 index initially rose to a historical high of over 45,000 points but then turned down, closing at 44,678.39 points, a decrease of 0.20% [2][1] - The U.S. government announced a reduction in tariffs on Japanese cars to 15%, down from the previous 25%, effective from September 16 [4][5] - This tariff reduction aligns with President Trump's executive order to implement a U.S.-Japan trade agreement, which sets a baseline tariff of 15% on most Japanese imports [5] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current interest rate of 0.5% during its upcoming meeting, with predictions suggesting that any rate hike may not occur until January 2026 [6][6] - Economic reports indicate that Japan's exports and production are showing signs of weakness, particularly in the automotive sector, which may influence the Bank of Japan's decision [6] - The market is optimistic about the potential election of a new Prime Minister, with candidates like Sanae Takaichi advocating for increased fiscal stimulus and monetary easing, which could positively impact Japanese stocks [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese stock market experienced fluctuations following positive news, including the reduction of U.S. tariffs on Japanese cars and expectations that the Bank of Japan may halt interest rate hikes [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Nikkei 225 index initially surged past the 45,000 mark, reaching a historical high before reversing direction and declining [1][3]. - As of the latest report, the Nikkei 225 index was down 0.20%, standing at 44,678.39 points [3]. Group 2: U.S. Tariff Changes - The U.S. government announced a reduction in import tariffs on Japanese cars from 25% to 15%, effective from September 16 [5]. - This tariff adjustment aligns with the U.S.-Japan trade agreement, which imposes a 15% tariff on most Japanese imports, including automobiles and parts [5]. Group 3: Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current interest rate of 0.5% during the upcoming meeting, with analysts suggesting that any rate hike may not occur until January 2026 [6][7]. - Economic indicators show a decline in exports and industrial output, particularly in the automotive sector, which may influence the Bank's decision to keep rates unchanged [7]. Group 4: Political Factors - The market is optimistic about the upcoming leadership election in Japan, with former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi being a leading candidate who supports increased fiscal stimulus and monetary easing [8]. - The ruling party plans to announce the presidential election on September 22, with voting scheduled for October 4 [8].

2025.09.15 品浩（PIMCO）董事总经理兼经济学家威尔丁（Tiffany Wilding）对第一财经表示，最新公布的数据整 体显示美国劳动力市场趋弱，而通胀仍受关税政策推动，核心CPI环比上涨0.35%，录得自4月初以来最 强劲的月度表现。但相比通胀数据，失业救济申请的上升更值得关注。劳动力市场已经停滞，并且对负 面冲击更为脆弱，"因此，我们预计最新的数据结果不会改变美联储的政策展望，美联储此次仍会降息 25个基点，50个基点的大幅降息也在讨论范围内。全年，我们仍预测美联储将累计降息75个基点。" 东方汇理投资研究院主管迪芬得（Monica Defend）也告诉第一财经，美联储的重点正在从通胀转向就 业和经济疲软，同时美联储面临的政治压力也正在上升，"总体而言，我们保持今年将有三次降息，第 一次发生在9月。" 本文字数：2788，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 |第一财经 后歆桐 本周，全球市场将再迎"央行超级周"。除美联储外，日本央行、加拿大央行和英国央行也将相继公布利 率决议。 美联储会"大幅降息"吗？ 美联储将于9月16~17日召开货币政策会议。近期公布的数据显示，8月美国消费者物价指数（CPI）比 ...

Group 1 - Japan's exports fell by 2.6% year-on-year in July, marking the largest decline in over four years, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on automobiles, auto parts, and steel [1] - Despite the drop in export value, export volume increased by 1.2%, indicating that exporters are absorbing tariff costs by lowering prices [1] - Japan's trade deficit in July reached 117.5 billion yen, with imports decreasing by 7.5% to 9.48 trillion yen, driven by significant declines in crude oil, coal, and liquefied natural gas imports [1] Group 2 - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 10.1% in July, with automotive exports dropping significantly by 28.4% and auto parts by 17.4%, although the volume of car exports only fell by 3.2% [1] - The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on Japanese imported cars and parts starting in April, and increased steel tariffs to 50% in June, affecting approximately one-third of Japan's total exports to the U.S. [1] - Toyota warned that U.S. tariffs could lead to a reduction in operating profit by 1.4 trillion yen [1] Group 3 - A trade agreement reached at the end of July is expected to reduce tariffs on cars and most goods to 15%, but implementation will take time [2] - Japan's economy showed unexpected resilience in the second quarter, which may support the Bank of Japan's decision to raise interest rates later this year, although the ongoing impact of U.S. tariffs will be a key consideration [2] - Analysts predict that the Bank of Japan will likely maintain its current policy stance in the upcoming September meeting, as the effects of tariffs on export volumes become more apparent [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has strengthened against all major currencies following comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen, suggesting that both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan should adjust their policy interest rates [1] Group 1 - The strengthening of the yen is attributed to two main factors: comments regarding the Federal Reserve and those concerning the Bank of Japan [1] - Market speculation indicates that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as December, with some believing it could happen in October [1] - Market participants are paying close attention to Yellen's remarks, which are perceived as supportive of a stronger yen [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's second-quarter GDP data is expected to show a stagnation in growth, with a projected annualized growth rate of 0.2%, just enough to offset the contraction in the first quarter [1]. Economic Indicators - The second-quarter GDP growth rate is anticipated to hover around 0% on a quarter-on-quarter basis [1]. - The annualized growth rate, after seasonal adjustment, is forecasted to rise modestly by 0.2% [1]. Export and Domestic Consumption - Export momentum has weakened, influenced by a decline in exports to the U.S. and sluggish overseas demand [1]. - Private consumption remains lackluster, as wage growth lags behind inflation [1]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The persistent weakness in GDP suggests that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates in the short term [1]. - Although a trade agreement with the U.S. may alleviate tariff uncertainties, the Bank of Japan is expected to wait for stronger wage recovery and stable inflation before normalizing its policy [1]. - The forecast for a 25 basis point rate hike by the Bank of Japan in the fourth quarter remains unchanged [1].

路透最新调查显示，尽管面临全球贸易紧张和国内政治不确定性，多数经济学家仍预测日本央行将在年 底前至少加息25个基点。在72位受访者中，83%（60人）预计日本央行在7月30—31日和9月的两次政策 会议上将按兵不动。（新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The majority of economists predict that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points by the end of the year, despite current global trade tensions and domestic political uncertainties [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - 83% of the 72 respondents in the survey expect the Bank of Japan to maintain its current policy during the meetings on July 30-31 and in September [1] - 54% of respondents anticipate that borrowing costs will rise from 0.50% to at least 0.75% in the next quarter, a notable increase from the 48% who expected a rate hike in the previous June survey [1]

Core Viewpoint - Weak wage data in Japan complicates the Bank of Japan's ability to raise interest rates, with inflation-adjusted wages declining by 2.9% year-on-year in May compared to a 2.0% drop in April [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japan's real wages have shown a significant decline, with a 2.9% year-on-year decrease in May, indicating challenges in wage growth [1] - The economic outlook for Japan is described as "very challenging" due to stalled trade negotiations with the United States and potential tariff increases on Japanese goods [1] Group 2: Central Bank Policy - The Bank of Japan faces increasing difficulties in raising interest rates as wage growth remains sluggish, complicating its monetary policy decisions [1] - Despite the challenges, there is still an expectation that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates, although further declines in wages could hinder this decision [1]