Core Insights - Canadian canola oil prices remained stable on June 30, with July shipment priced at $1,050 per ton and September shipment at $1,030 per ton [1] - Domestic canola oil prices in China showed slight variations, with prices ranging from 9,480 to 9,620 yuan per ton across different regions [1] - The futures market indicated a slight decline in canola oil prices, with the main contract closing at 9,415 yuan per ton, down 0.50% [1] Group 1: Canadian Market Data - The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association reported a decrease in canola seed crushing volume to 831,193 tons in May 2025, down 9.59% month-on-month [2] - Canola oil production in Canada also fell to 353,218 tons, reflecting a 9.5% decrease compared to the previous month [2] - The C&F price for Canadian canola for July shipment increased by $1 to $595 per ton, while the August shipment also saw a $1 increase to $585 per ton [2] Group 2: Market Analysis - The analysis from Forward Futures indicated that the significant drop in crude oil prices negatively impacts the profit margins for blending canola oil with biodiesel [3] - Domestic supply and demand for canola oil remain relatively loose, with expectations of increased production for the new season and improved trade relations between China and Canada [3] - The demand for biodiesel in the U.S. and Brazil is rising, leading to increased consumption of vegetable oils, while the oil-meal ratio is favoring canola meal, which may exert further downward pressure on canola prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in canola oil futures indicates a bearish sentiment in the short term, influenced by various market factors [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Canola oil futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 9468.00 yuan, closing at 9480.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.32% [1] - The short-term outlook for canola oil is bearish, with support levels identified between 9400-9420 yuan and resistance levels between 9750-9790 yuan [1] - Domestic canola oil inventory has slightly increased week-on-week, contributing to a relatively loose supply-demand situation [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures suggests a short-term bearish outlook for canola oil, citing the significant drop in crude oil prices as a negative influence on the profitability of blending vegetable oils with biodiesel [1] - Dayue Futures anticipates a range-bound trading scenario for canola oil, with expected fluctuations between 9300-9700 yuan [1] - The market is closely monitoring the impact of the upcoming hearings on U.S. biodiesel production expectations and the evolving trade relations between China and Canada [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of canola from overseas is expected to be tight, while domestic demand remains stable, leading to a mixed outlook for canola prices [1] - The USDA's projections for South American production in 2024/2025 are relatively high, which may influence global oilseed prices [1] - The Indonesian B40 policy is expected to boost domestic consumption, although international biodiesel profits remain low, indicating weak demand [1]