Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) and corn sectors is neutral [3][6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the粕类 market, the current downstream oil mill bean meal inventory, although somewhat depleted, remains at a relatively high level in recent years. Influenced by rising international shipping costs and fertilizer prices, the Brazilian soybean premium has strengthened. Supported by import costs and factors such as the oil - meal ratio, domestic bean meal prices are running on the strong side. Future attention should be paid to port clearance, US soybean exports, and macro - events [2] - In the corn market, deep - processing enterprises are raising prices to replenish inventories, which supports corn prices. However, previous snow and rain affected transportation. Northern port corn prices are firm, while southern buyers are cautious. Some substitute grains are diverting demand. With wheat and aged rice not yet being auctioned in large quantities, the overall corn supply is not loose. The arrival of substitute grains will provide some supply, and future attention should be on policy - related auctions and grain sales [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. 粕类 (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2605 contract was 3054 yuan/ton, a change of - 14 yuan/ton (- 0.46%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2492 yuan/ton, a change of + 12 yuan/ton (+ 0.48%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3380 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 326, up 74 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 196, up 14 from the previous day; in Guangdong, it was 3350 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 296, up 44 from the previous day. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2530 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of RM05 + 38, up 18 from the previous day [1] - Market Information: From March 1 - 7, Brazil's soybean exports were 3.71 million tons, and the estimated monthly exports were 16.47 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 16.09 million tons and a 4.7% increase from the same period last year. The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina maintained its 2025/26 soybean production forecast at 48 million tons [1] 2. Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2605 contract was 2396 yuan/ton, a change of + 1 yuan/ton (+ 0.04%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2605 contract was 2723 yuan/ton, a change of + 5 yuan/ton (+ 0.18%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C05 + 24, down 1 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS05 + 77, down 5 from the previous day [3] - Market Information: The French Agricultural Bureau's monthly report showed that the estimated 2025/26 soft wheat production in France was 33.331 million tons, the same as the previous month's forecast and a 30.0% increase year - on - year. Exports to third - countries were adjusted down by 100,000 tons to 7.1 million tons, a 103.1% increase year - on - year. Ending stocks were adjusted up by 340,000 tons to 3.39 million tons, a 36.8% increase year - on - year [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall upward trend of the oil market remains unchanged, and there is still an expectation of an increase after the gap is filled. The double - meal market has given back its previous gains due to the decline in macro - sentiment [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情复盘 - On March 10, due to the end of the US - Iran conflict and the pressure of multiple countries releasing oil reserves, international crude oil prices dropped significantly, driving the collective and rapid decline of vegetable oils. The main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased, with varying degrees of position reduction or increase. The double - meal also followed the decline due to the weakening of the overall commodity market caused by the sharp drop in international crude oil [1][2]. 3.2重要资讯 3.2.1 Oil - related - The US - Iran war is expected to end quickly, and international crude oil futures tumbled more than 11% on Tuesday. The US and India reached a temporary trade agreement framework, with India canceling or reducing tariffs on US industrial products, food, and agricultural products, and the US reducing the so - called reciprocal tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18%. The US Environmental Protection Agency will submit a new biofuel blending volume authorization proposal to the White House, and the rule may be finalized by the end of March. The US government plans to require large refineries to make up at least half of the biofuel blending exemption quota, which is expected to boost the demand for raw materials such as soybean oil. The Malaysian MPOB report shows that the inventory at the end of February decreased by 3.94% to 2.7 million tons, production decreased by 18.55% to 1.28 million tons, and exports decreased by 22.48% to 1.13 million tons. Indian buyers have locked in a large amount of soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil. The shipping survey agency ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports in February decreased by 21.5% compared with January. As of the 9th weekend of 2026, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils increased by 2.23% week - on - week and decreased by 7.93% year - on - year [1]. 3.2.2 Double - meal related - Analysts' average forecast for the US 2025/26 annual soybean ending inventory in the USDA March supply - demand report is 344 million bushels. Due to the US and Israel's attacks on Iran, the geopolitical tension in the Middle East has intensified, and the soybean exports of Brazil and the US may decline in the next few weeks. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in March 2026 will be 16.09 million tons, a 2.3% increase from March 2025. As of the 8th weekend of 2026, the domestic imported soybean inventory increased, the domestic soybean meal inventory decreased slightly, and the contract volume increased significantly. The domestic imported rapeseed inventory increased, and the imported rapeseed meal inventory and contract volume remained unchanged [2][3]. 3.3市场逻辑 3.3.1 Oil - related - Externally, the US president's statement and the G7's consideration of releasing oil reserves led to a significant decline in crude oil futures. The weakening of the US - Iran dispute and bearish supply - demand data caused the Malaysian palm oil to fall. In the soybean oil and palm oil markets, trading is not active, the market is in a state of stagnant rise and correction, and traders are waiting for further price drops. The supply is sufficient, and the basis may rise slightly if the market corrects significantly. The future trend of Zhengzhou rapeseed oil depends on the evolution of the Middle East geopolitical conflict [1][2]. 3.3.2 Double - meal related - Externally, the White House's statement and the G7's plan to release oil reserves led to a sharp decline in international oil prices. The increase in fuel surcharges by shipping companies limited the decline of the futures price. The domestic oil mill quotes decreased with the market, and the near - month basis quotes were relatively firm. Feed enterprises are replenishing inventory, but the willingness to chase the rise is limited, and the overall market is in a state of just - in - time procurement. The rapeseed meal market is also affected by the market decline, and the terminal feed mills are in a wait - and - see state [3]. 3.4交易策略 3.4.1 Oil - related - For single - side trading, those who already hold long positions in low - priced oils should continue to hold, and new long positions can be slightly added after the gap is filled. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for different contracts [2]. 3.4.2 Double - meal related - Existing long positions should be closed, and wait for the opportunity to buy again after the correction. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for different contracts [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Middle - East conflict has not directly blocked exports, but the risk of rising shipping and insurance costs is increasing, posing potential pressure on the soybean export prospects of Brazil and the US. Before the soybean reserve release is announced, the oil - meal ratio is likely to remain in a volatile trend. The short - term Middle - East situation has boosted the oil sector, causing the oil - meal ratio to widen again [1]. - The tense Middle - East situation has led to a sharp rise in crude oil, which has indirectly driven the rebound of oils and fats. It is estimated that the short - term oil and fat market will continue to be strong, but the development of the Middle - East situation needs attention [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - As of February 21, 2026, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 41.7%, lower than 48.4% in the same period last year but higher than the five - year average of 38.4%. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso was 81.3%, compared with 80.4% last year and a five - year average of 75.1%. In Parana state, the harvest progress was 37%, compared with 49% last year and a five - year average of 31.6% [1]. - Due to the US and Israel's attacks on Iran, the geopolitical tension in the Middle East has intensified, and the soybean exports of Brazil and the US may decline in the next few weeks. If the conflict persists, some shipping will be affected, and the risk of rising shipping and insurance costs is increasing [1]. - US soybean exports continue to be strong, Brazil's soybean production is slightly reduced, and the expected dry weather in Argentina also supports the strong market trend. Attention should be paid to whether the reserve release announcement will be made this week [1]. Oils and Fats - According to the USDA's crushing monthly report, the soybean crushing volume in the US in January 2026 was 227.86 million bushels (equivalent to 6.836 million short tons), a 0.87% decrease from 229.86 million bushels in December and a 7.20% increase from 212.55 million bushels in January 2025, which is also the highest value in January in history. The US soybean oil inventory on January 31, 2026 was 2.432 billion pounds, an 11.56% increase from 2.180 billion pounds in December [2]. - Due to the escalating war between the US/Israel and Iran, international crude oil futures have risen sharply for three consecutive trading days. Coupled with the strong rise of Chicago soybean oil futures, it is helpful for the early - morning performance of the Malaysian crude palm oil futures. The decline in Malaysian palm oil production and the weakening of the ringgit exchange rate also support the price [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the vegetable oil sector, due to factors such as unstable Middle - East situation, U.S. biodiesel policy, and changes in palm oil production and inventory, the market is influenced by macro - emotions. Before the Spring Festival, it is advisable to observe conservatively as the direction is unclear [1][2]. - For the two - meal sector, although the external input cost is rising, due to domestic auction expectations and the end of pre - Spring Festival stocking, the domestic two - meal market shows a weak and narrow - range oscillation trend, and it is advisable to trade intraday during the Spring Festival [2][3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil (Three Oils) 3.1.1 Market Review - On February 5th, the non - ferrous sector declined sharply, the Wenhua Index weakened, and the vegetable oil sector turned down. The main contract of soybean oil Y2605 closed at 8104 yuan/ton, down 0.44% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 12,674 lots; the secondary main contract Y2609 closed at 8046 yuan/ton, down 0.35% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 9525 lots. The main contract of palm oil P2605 closed at 9042 yuan/ton, down 1.05% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 13,432 lots; the secondary main contract P2609 closed at 9014 yuan/ton, down 0.79% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 2720 lots. The secondary main contract of rapeseed oil OI2605 closed at 9144 yuan/ton, down 1.07% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 6705 lots; the main contract OI2609 closed at 9086 yuan/ton, down 1.00% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 1771 lots [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - Crude oil futures fell nearly 3% as supply concerns eased before the U.S. - Iran talks. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, basically following the initial proposal and abandoning a plan to impose penalties on imports of renewable fuels and raw materials. The U.S. EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, close to the initially proposed 5.61 billion gallons, with final approval expected in Q1 2026. - Bloomberg estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in January 2026 was 1.62 million tons, exports were 1.42 million tons, imports were 40,000 tons, consumption was 340,000 tons, and inventory was 2.89 million tons, lower than the 3.05 million tons in December announced by MPOB. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil. - Data from the Southern Palm Oil Producers' Association of Malaysia (SPPOMA) showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in January decreased by 13.08% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreasing by 13.78% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.16% month - on - month. - The shipping survey agency ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports in January were 1,463,069 tons, a 17.9% increase from December's 1,240,587 tons. Exports to China were 40,100 tons, a decrease of 92,300 tons from the previous month. - Indonesia's statistics bureau said that in 2025, Indonesia exported 23.61 million tons of crude palm oil and refined palm oil, a 9.09% year - on - year increase, with a total export value of $24.42 billion. - As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 1.9939 million tons, a weekly decrease of 51,000 tons, a 2.49% month - on - month decrease and a 2.88% year - on - year decrease. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.0912 million tons, a weekly decrease of 5100 tons, a 0.47% month - on - month decrease and a 7.61% year - on - year increase; edible palm oil inventory was 639,300 tons, a weekly decrease of 32,600 tons, a 4.85% month - on - month decrease and a 48.26% year - on - year increase; rapeseed oil inventory was 263,400 tons, a weekly decrease of 13,300 tons, a 4.81% month - on - month decrease and a 56.67% year - on - year decrease [1]. 3.1.3 Spot Market - As of February 5th, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8640 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/ton and a basis of 536 yuan/ton; the average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9180 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 36 yuan/ton and a basis of 138 yuan/ton; the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,010 yuan/ton. The palm oil import profit was - 361.53 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 120 yuan/ton, a basis of 767 yuan/ton, and a month - on - month increase of 92 yuan/ton. As of February 5th, the oil - meal ratio of the main soybean oil and soybean meal contracts was 2.97 [2]. 3.1.4 Market Logic - Externally, the unstable situation in the Middle East has made international oil prices fluctuate disorderly. Due to the restraint of U.S. biodiesel policy, the decline of U.S. soybean oil is limited. The decrease in January production has boosted the expectation that the Malaysian palm oil inventory will decline, and it is expected that the Malaysian palm oil futures price will remain volatile. Overnight, international precious metal prices showed signs of weakness again, and U.S. technology stocks tumbled. With the Spring Festival approaching in China, after the Sino - U.S. leaders' call, an additional 45 million tons of U.S. soybeans will be purchased, which creates an expectation of loose domestic oil supply in the long - term. Also, as the oil stocking is coming to an end, market trading willingness has decreased. Overall, macro - emotions are still the dominant factor, fundamental factors are temporarily secondary, and risk - aversion awareness has increased. It is advisable to observe conservatively before the Spring Festival [2]. 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, as the Spring Festival is approaching, external macro - risks are uncontrollable, and market risk - aversion awareness has risen. It is advisable to observe conservatively before the festival, and the direction is unclear. The resistance level of Y2605 is 8560, and the support level is 7400; the resistance level of Y2609 is 8692, and the support level is 7370; the resistance level of P2605 is 9418, and the support level is 7940; the resistance level of P2609 is 9696, and the support level is 7880; the resistance level of OI2605 is 9544, and the support level is 8250; the resistance level of OI2609 is 9400, and the support level is 8400. There is no arbitrage strategy for now [2]. 3.2 Two - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On February 5th, after the Sino - U.S. leaders' call, U.S. soybeans rose sharply, but the overall domestic commodity market was weak, so domestic two - meal prices fluctuated narrowly, ignoring the external rise. The main contract of soybean meal M2605 closed at 2731 yuan/ton, up 0.29% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 3560 lots; the secondary main contract M2609 closed at 2854 yuan/ton, up 0.53% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 38,911 lots. The main contract of rapeseed meal RM2605 closed at 2238 yuan/ton, down 0.04% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 18,951 lots; the secondary main contract RM2609 closed at 2284 yuan/ton, down 0.35% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 26,935 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - U.S. President Trump said that he had a "very positive" call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on trade and security issues. Chinese leaders agreed to increase the purchase of U.S. soybeans this season from 12 million tons to 20 million tons. - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 would be 3.79 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 3.73 million tons. If the estimate is realized, it will be a 238% increase from the 1.12 million tons in the same period last year, setting a record high for the same period. - The consulting firm AgRural estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 181 million tons, about 600,000 tons higher than the December 22nd forecast. If the forecast is realized, it will be a 5.54% increase from the 171.5 million tons in the 2024/25 season. As of last Thursday (January 22nd), the soybean harvest progress in the 2025/26 season was 4.9%, compared with 2.0% last week and 3.9% in the same period last year. - As of December 30th, the sowing progress of Argentina's 2025/26 season soybeans was 75.5%, higher than 75.82% a week ago. The growth condition of the sown soybeans was good. 96.1% of the soybeans were rated normal to excellent, higher than 95.2% a week ago; 96.1% of the soybean fields' moisture was rated suitable to optimal, higher than 96% a week ago. Meanwhile, the sowing progress of the second - season soybeans reached 71.9% of the intended area, higher than 57.9% a week ago. - As of the end of the 4th week of 2026, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 906,800 tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons from last week, a 4.35% month - on - month decrease; the contract volume was 4.9937 million tons, a decrease of 762,200 tons from last week, a 13.24% month - on - month decrease. The inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal in China was 0 tons, the same as last week, with a month - on - month change of 0; the contract volume was 0 tons, the same as last week, with a month - on - month change of 0. The total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 6.8483 million tons, a decrease of 343,500 tons from last week. The inventory in the same period last year was 4.452 million tons, and the five - week average was 7.0502 million tons. The total inventory of imported rapeseed in China was 120,000 tons, the same as last week. The inventory in the same period last year was 536,000 tons, and the five - week average was 96,000 tons. - On January 13th, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction 1,139,605.33 tons of soybeans from 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025, distributed in Shandong, Henan, Zhejiang, Anhui, Liaoning, Henan, Jiangsu, Fujian, Guangdong, and Guangxi. The actual transaction was 1,139,605.33 tons, with a base price of 3630/3650/3660/3690/3700/3710/3720/3730/3750/3760/3740/3790 yuan/ton, an average transaction price of 3809.55 yuan/ton, a transaction ratio of 100%, and a delivery date from March 1st to April 30th, 2026 [2][3]. 3.2.3 Spot Market - As of February 5th, the spot price of soybean meal was 3106 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 62,000 tons. The basis price of soybean meal was 3068 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 51,000 tons. The basis of the main soybean meal contract was 369 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal was 2510 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 0 tons. The basis was 2453 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 41 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 0 tons. The basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 172 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 61 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2.4 Pressing Margin - The February futures pressing margin of U.S. soybeans was - 466 yuan/ton, and the spot pressing margin was - 116 yuan/ton; the February futures pressing margin of Brazilian soybeans was - 112 yuan/ton, and the spot pressing margin was 239 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2.5 Soybean Arrival Cost - The arrival cost of U.S. Gulf soybeans in Zhangjiagang with normal tariffs for the February shipment was 3988 yuan/ton, and that of Brazilian soybeans in Zhangjiagang for the February shipment was 3698 yuan/ton. The CNF quote of U.S. Gulf soybeans for the February shipment was 499 US dollars/ton; the CNF quote of Brazilian soybeans for the February shipment was 462 US dollars/ton. The CNF quote of Canadian soybeans for the February shipment was 532 US dollars/ton; the arrival cost of rapeseed in Guangzhou Port for the February shipment was 4489 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 36 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2.6 Market Logic - Externally, after the Sino - U.S. leaders' call, it is expected that 45 million tons of U.S. soybeans will be purchased in the second quarter, and the domestic biodiesel demand in the U.S. is expected to rise, so U.S. soybeans continue to rise strongly. The Brazilian soybean premium has dropped significantly, and there are rumors of a 5 - million - ton imported soybean auction after the Spring Festival, which further strengthens the expectation of loose domestic supply, and the spot market sentiment is low. In the spot market, the fixed - price of oil mills fluctuates within a narrow range of 10 - 20 yuan, and the near - month basis remains stable. As traders' final orders are executed and the Spring Festival approaches, some oil mills have suspended taking orders. Against the background of improved expectations of U.S. soybean imports, domestic supply pressure is gradually emerging, and traders' mentality has become pessimistic, with little willingness to raise prices. For rapeseed meal, the fact that foreign capital has not further increased short positions also limits the downward space of Zhengzhou rapeseed meal futures. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate around 2250 yuan, and there is a risk of further decline. The spot market fluctuates with the futures, and the basis quotation is relatively stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, logistics has tightened, and vehicle sources are in short supply. In Nantong, there has been a selling - off situation for rapeseed meal, and the fixed - price continues to decline. Overall, although the external input cost is rising,

Core Viewpoint - The recent warming of China-Canada trade relations has led to a significant impact on the domestic soybean meal market, with expectations of reduced import tariffs on Canadian canola influencing soybean meal futures prices [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The soybean meal futures contract 2605 has been experiencing a continuous decline due to the anticipated reduction in import tariffs on Canadian canola, with the oil-meal ratio reaching a historical high of 2.95 [1] - The average oil-meal ratio since 2013 has been 2.26, with a probability of being above 2.5 at 21.26% and below 1.9 at 8.99% [1] - The announcement from the Canadian Prime Minister's office indicates that China is expected to lower the tariff rate on Canadian canola to 15% before March 1, which has led to a significant drop in domestic canola meal prices and subsequently affected soybean meal prices [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - As of January 16, domestic soybean meal commercial inventory was at 950,000 tons, marking a second consecutive week of inventory reduction, attributed to lower crushing volumes and increased purchasing by feed enterprises ahead of the Spring Festival [2] - The expected soybean crushing volume for January is projected to drop to 8 million tons, leading to a tight supply situation for soybean meal in the first quarter [2] - Despite strong demand from livestock and poultry sectors, the overall supply remains ample due to increased crushing activity returning to over 2 million tons per week [2] Group 3: International Market Influences - The South American region, particularly Brazil, is experiencing a significant increase in soybean production, which may exert downward pressure on soybean meal prices due to limited international demand [3] - Current high inventory levels of soybean meal may limit the potential for price increases, despite expectations of reduced soybean arrivals in the future [3] - The market outlook suggests that short-term soybean meal prices will be influenced by the timing of Canadian canola import policy implementation and domestic Spring Festival stocking progress [3] Group 4: Future Price Trends - The market is expected to exhibit a "near strong, far weak" pattern, with short-term price recovery anticipated due to ongoing inventory reduction and delayed soybean harvesting in South America [4] - Post-Spring Festival, an influx of Brazilian soybeans may increase supply pressure on soybean meal prices, alongside a surge in canola and canola meal imports [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent warming of China-Canada trade relations has led to a significant impact on the domestic soybean meal market, with expectations of reduced import tariffs on Canadian canola influencing soybean meal futures prices [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The soybean meal futures contract 2605 has been experiencing a continuous decline due to the anticipated reduction in import tariffs on Canadian canola, with the oil-meal ratio reaching a historical high of 2.95 [1] - The oil-meal ratio has averaged 2.26 since 2013, with a probability of being above 2.5 at 21.26% and below 1.9 at 8.99% [1] - The price drop in soybean meal is directly linked to the recent agreements between China and Canada regarding trade cooperation, particularly concerning canola imports [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - As of January 16, domestic soybean meal commercial inventory stood at 950,000 tons, marking a second consecutive week of inventory reduction [2] - The reduction in inventory is attributed to lower operating rates at oil mills and increased purchasing activity from feed enterprises ahead of the Spring Festival, with feed enterprise inventory days rising by 14% to an average of 12.84 days [2] - The anticipated decrease in imported soybean arrivals and a projected reduction in crushing volume to 8 million tons in January will likely maintain a tight supply of soybean meal in the first quarter [2] Group 3: International Market Influences - The South American region, particularly Brazil, is expected to see a significant increase in soybean production, which may exert downward pressure on soybean meal prices due to limited international demand [3] - Despite good demand, the overall inventory of soybean meal remains high, and the market has already priced in potential supply tightening from reduced soybean arrivals [3] - The upcoming dynamics of Canadian canola import policies and domestic Spring Festival stocking will play crucial roles in short-term price movements, while post-festival supply increases may pressure prices [3][4] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The soybean meal market is expected to exhibit a "near strong, far weak" pattern, with short-term price recovery anticipated due to ongoing inventory reduction and delayed South American soybean harvests [4] - Post-Spring Festival, the influx of Brazilian soybeans and increased imports of canola and canola meal may pose challenges to soybean meal prices [4]

Group 1 - The recent warming of China-Canada economic and trade relations has led to a significant decline in domestic soybean meal futures, particularly the 2605 contract, influenced by expectations of reduced import tariffs on Canadian canola [1] - The oil-meal ratio has risen to 2.95, a historical high, with the average since 2013 being 2.26, indicating a strong market dynamic [1] - The anticipated reduction of tariffs on Canadian canola to 15% by March 1 is expected to increase imports significantly, impacting soybean meal demand negatively in the short term [1] Group 2 - Domestic soybean meal inventory has decreased to 950,000 tons, marking the second consecutive week of inventory reduction, driven by lower crushing volumes and increased purchasing by feed enterprises ahead of the Spring Festival [2] - The expected soybean crushing volume for January is projected to drop to 8 million tons, leading to a tight supply situation for soybean meal in the first quarter [2] - Despite positive demand from livestock and poultry sectors, the overall supply remains ample, which may limit price increases in the spot market [2] Group 3 - Internationally, Brazil's increased soybean production is expected to exert downward pressure on soybean meal prices, despite good domestic demand [3] - The market anticipates that the upcoming increase in soybean imports and the recovery of oil mill operations post-Spring Festival will significantly affect supply dynamics [3] - The overall supply-demand balance in the international soybean market remains loose, with Brazilian harvest pressures likely to suppress soybean meal prices [3] Group 4 - The soybean meal market is expected to exhibit a "near strong, far weak" pattern, with short-term price recovery anticipated before the Spring Festival, followed by increased supply pressure post-harvest [4] - The surge in canola and canola meal imports may further impact soybean meal prices negatively after the Spring Festival [4]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The vegetable oil sector is expected to remain weak in the medium to long - term due to sufficient supply, while the two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) market will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the medium term [2][3][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Vegetable Oil Market Performance on January 8 - Soybean oil: The main contract Y2605 closed at 7944 yuan/ton, down 0.18% day - on - day, with an increase of 20895 lots in open interest; the second - main contract Y2609 closed at 7814 yuan/ton, up 0.08% day - on - day, with an increase of 2413 lots in open interest [2] - Palm oil: The main contract P2605 closed at 8612 yuan/ton, up 0.58% day - on - day, with an increase of 326 lots in open interest; the second - main contract P2609 closed at 8500 yuan/ton, up 0.57% day - on - day, with an increase of 1940 lots in open interest [2] - Rapeseed oil: The main contract OI2605 closed at 8956 yuan/ton, down 1.53% day - on - day, with a decrease of 20113 lots in open interest; the second - main contract OI2609 closed at 8943 yuan/ton, down 1.52% day - on - day, with an increase of 977 lots in open interest [2] Important Information - China is willing to cancel tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in exchange for Canada canceling tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [2] - In November 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing volume was 6.615 million short tons (2.21 billion bushels), lower than the revised 7.09 million short tons in October but higher than 6.3 million short tons in November last year [2] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month [2] - From December 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 9.12% month - on - month [2] - From December 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 1.6% compared with the same period in November [2] - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory addition program in the second half of 2026 [2] Market Logic - Externally, international crude oil has risen, boosting the strength of U.S. soybean oil. Domestically, soybean oil is under pressure due to negative rapeseed - related news; palm oil is oscillating due to a combination of inventory pressure and strong international crude oil; rapeseed oil has fallen rapidly due to China - Canada negotiation news [2][3] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Vegetable oils are generally bearish but show some differentiation. Soybean oil is bearish, palm oil is oscillating in the medium term and bearish in the long term, and short positions in rapeseed oil should be held [3] - Arbitrage: Exit the previously concerned strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil spread [3] Two - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market Performance on January 8 - Soybean meal: The main contract M2605 closed at 31418 yuan/ton, down 1.03% day - on - day, with an increase of 2782 lots in open interest; the second - main contract M2609 closed at 2875 yuan/ton, down 0.45% day - on - day, with an increase of 3858 lots in open interest [3] - Rapeseed meal: The main contract RM2605 closed at 2358 yuan/ton, down 2.52% day - on - day, with an increase of 64896 lots in open interest; the second - main contract RM2609 closed at 2419 yuan/ton, down 1.87% day - on - day, with an increase of 7102 lots in open interest [3] Important Information - U.S. farmers are expected to increase soybean planting area to 85 million acres in the 2026/2027 season [3][4] - As of December 18, 2025, the U.S. soybean exports to China in the 2025/26 season were 659,000 tons [4] - StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season may reach 178.9 million tons [4] - As of January 3, 2026, Brazil's 2025/26 season soybean harvest progress was 0.1% [4] - As of December 30, Argentina's 2025/26 season soybean sowing was 82% complete [4] - Brazil's soybean exports in December 2025 are expected to be 3.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 69% [4] Market Logic - Externally, the bottom of U.S. soybeans is supported, but the upside is limited. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal has increased, while rapeseed meal has been affected by news and has seen a high - level correction [3][4][5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The two - meal market should maintain a bottom - oscillating mindset in the medium term and engage in intraday trading [5] - Arbitrage: No arbitrage strategy is proposed for now [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The vegetable oil sector is expected to rebound from the bottom and mainly oscillate at a low level, waiting for long - term short - selling opportunities after the rebound. The two - meal sector is expected to rebound from a low level, and new selling points should be sought after the rebound ends [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Vegetable Oil Sector Market Review - On December 24, the strength and weakness of the vegetable oil sector were further differentiated. Rapeseed oil stopped falling and rebounded significantly, while soybean oil and palm oil were weak. The closing prices and daily changes of the main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are as follows: - Soybean oil: The main contract Y2605 closed at 7,764 yuan/ton, down 0.10% day - on - day, with an increase of 1,562 lots in positions; the secondary contract Y2609 closed at 7,700 yuan/ton, down 0.23% day - on - day, with an increase of 119 lots in positions. - Palm oil: The main contract P2605 closed at 8,488 yuan/ton, up 0.02% day - on - day, with a decrease of 37,874 lots in positions; the secondary contract P2609 closed at 8,364 yuan/ton, down 0.10% day - on - day, with an increase of 360 lots in positions. - Rapeseed oil: The main contract OI2605 closed at 8,980 yuan/ton, up 1.50% day - on - day, with an increase of 7,936 lots in positions; the secondary contract OI2609 closed at 8,938 yuan/ton, up 1.02% day - on - day, with a decrease of 35 lots in positions [1] Important Information - International oil prices closed slightly lower on December 24, and are expected to record the largest annual decline since 2020. The most actively traded February crude oil futures contract on NYMEX fell 0.03 dollars or 0.05% to settle at 58.35 dollars per barrel. - The market speculates that the Trump administration will make a decision on the 45Z tax credit for sustainable aviation fuel next week. Since January 1, 2026, the tax credit for US biodiesel producers will increase to 64 cents per gallon, and that for renewable diesel producers will increase to 53 cents per gallon. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, with 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil. - From December 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.15% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area down 6.26% and the oil extraction rate (OER) down 0.17%. - From December 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 851,057 tons, a 2.4% increase compared to the same period in November. Exports to China were 102,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons compared to the same period last month. - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared to 2025. The PSO total allocation decreased slightly. Indonesia launched a B50 road test in December, and the energy minister said the mandatory B50 addition plan will start in the second half of 2026. - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.2936 million tons, a weekly decrease of 17,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.30%. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.3178 million tons, a weekly decrease of 25,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.89%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.76%; edible palm oil inventory was 617,800 tons, a weekly increase of 33,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.75%, and a year - on - year increase of 26.08%; rapeseed oil inventory was 358,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 25,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.75%, and a year - on - year decrease of 28.29%. - As of December 24, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,320 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30 yuan/ton; the basis was 556 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 38 yuan/ton; the average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,470 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton, the basis was - 18 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 98 yuan/ton, and the palm oil import profit was - 437.03 yuan/ton. The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 130 yuan/ton, the basis was 570 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3 yuan/ton. - As of December 24, the oil - meal ratio of the main soybean oil and soybean meal contracts was 2.85 [1][2] Market Logic - External market: Before the Christmas holiday in the US market, capital adjustment drove up the price of US soybean oil. Although international crude oil prices rose, the overall inventory pressure in Southeast Asia and the lack of enthusiasm for purchases by major consumer countries made the rebound of Malaysian palm oil show signs of weakness. - Domestic market: For domestic soybean oil, factory inventory decreased by 25,000 tons, indicating a short - term supply shortage, but the high crushing volume and operating rate of oil mills coexisted with long and short factors, and traders were cautious in stocking up. For palm oil, the strong performance of US soybean oil before the holiday may boost the domestic market, and attention should be paid to whether it can effectively break through the pressure of the 20 - day moving average. For rapeseed oil, due to market news that many traders planned to take delivery of the 2601 rapeseed oil warehouse receipts and actively inquired about the price of crude rapeseed oil, and the continuous reduction of rapeseed oil inventory in East China, the 2601 Zhengzhou rapeseed oil contract led the rise in the domestic vegetable oil market, and the 2605 contract followed suit. As the Christmas holiday approached, capital mainly left the market, and the market focused on whether the 05 contract could effectively break through the pressure level of 9,000 yuan. In the spot market, the transaction of genetically modified and non - genetically modified rapeseed oil in East China was good, and the basis quotation was also supported, showing a slight increase of 30 - 50 yuan/ton [2] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: For new vegetable oil orders, conduct intraday trading and maintain a short - term bearish view in the long - term. The pressure and support levels for each contract are as follows: - Y2605: Pressure level 8,400, support level 7,400. - Y2609: Pressure level 8,040, support level 7,370. - P2605: Pressure level 8,626, support level 7,940. - P2609: Pressure level 8,578, support level 7,880. - OI2605: Pressure level 9,200, support level 8,250. - OI2609: Pressure level 9,300, support level 8,400. - Arbitrage: None [2] Two - Meal Sector Market Review - On December 24, the market sentiment was cautious, and the two - meal prices mainly oscillated at a low level. The closing prices and daily changes of the main and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are as follows: - Soybean meal: The main contract M2605 closed at 2,728 yuan/ton, down 0.62% day - on - day, with an increase of 11,121 lots in positions; the secondary contract M2609 closed at 2,850 yuan/ton, down 0.45% day - on - day, with an increase of 4,938 lots in positions. - Rapeseed meal: The main contract RM2605 closed at 2,344 yuan/ton, down 0.21% day - on - day, with an increase of 10,459 lots in positions; the secondary contract RM2609 closed at 2,400 yuan/ton, down 0.12% day - on - day, with an increase of 1,092 lots in positions [2] Important Information - The US Department of Agriculture estimates that in the 2026/2027 season, US farmers will reduce the corn planting area and increase the soybean planting area to 85 million acres. Previously, S&P Global predicted that the US soybean planting area in 2026 would increase by 4% from 81.1 million acres in 2025 to 84.5 million acres. - On Friday, private exporters reported selling 134,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. - As of December 11, the sowing of the 2025/2026 season's soybeans in Brazil was 97% complete, up from 94% a week ago. - StoneX predicts that the 2025/2026 season's soybean production in Brazil may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the USDA's previous estimate of 175 million tons. - As of December 13, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 94.1%, up from 90.3% last week, 96.8% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 90.6%. - Brazil's soybean exports in December are expected to be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's estimate of 3.33 million tons. - US farmers welcomed the latest 12 - billion - dollar agricultural aid plan announced by President Trump but generally believed that this amount was far from enough to make up for the industry's losses of 34 - 44 billion dollars this year. - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 764,600 tons, a decrease of 40,900 tons compared to last week, 591,900 tons in the same period last year, and the five - week average was 785,900 tons. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 109,500 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.38%; the contract volume was 467,000 tons, a decrease of 184,900 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 28.36%. The total inventory of imported rapeseed was 6,000 tons, the same as last week, 81,900 tons in the same period last year, and the five - week average was 5,000 tons. The inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal was 0 tons, the same as last week, and the contract volume was also 0 tons, the same as last week. - On December 19, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction 550,143.732 tons of imported soybeans from the State Reserve, and the actual transaction volume was 179,701.674 tons, with a transaction rate of 32.66% and an average transaction price of 3,751 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 80 yuan/ton. - As of December 24, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,120 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 22,000 tons; the basis price of soybean meal was 3,080 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 141,000 tons; the basis of the main soybean meal contract was 372 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 17 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal was 2,426 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0 tons; the basis price of rapeseed meal was 2,469 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 18 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0 tons; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 236 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton. - The US soybean January futures crushing profit was - 481 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing profit was - 79 yuan/ton; the Brazilian soybean February futures crushing profit was - 99 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing profit was 246 yuan/ton. - The arrival cost of US Gulf soybeans for January shipment at Zhangjiagang with normal tariffs was 3,908 yuan/ton, and the cost of Brazilian soybeans for February shipment at Zhangjiagang was 3,577 yuan/ton. The CNF quote of US Gulf soybeans for January shipment was 481 dollars/ton, and the CNF quote of Brazilian soybeans for February shipment was 440 dollars/ton. The CNF quote of Canadian rapeseed for January shipment was 489 dollars/ton, and the arrival cost of rapeseed for January shipment at Guangzhou Port was 4,175 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 60 yuan/ton [2][3] Market Logic - External market: Capital adjustment before Christmas led to a rebound in US soybean prices. In the spot market, most oil mill quotes remained stable, with some local areas reducing prices by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The overall spot trading was stable, lacking obvious driving factors. Under the high - inventory pressure, traders made rolling replenishments, and feed mills maintained safety inventories and made rigid purchases. They were rational about Spring Festival stocking. Currently, the spot supply of high - protein rapeseed meal in North and South China is relatively tight, so the basis quotation is expected to remain stable with a slight increase of 10 - 20 yuan/ton. In the short term, Zhengzhou rapeseed meal is expected to have strong support at the bottom and mainly adjust through range - bound oscillations [3] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to rebound from a low level, and new selling points should be sought after the rebound ends. The pressure and support levels for each contract are as follows: - M2605: Pressure level 2,858, support level 2,660. - M2607: Pressure level 2,840, support level 2,559. - M2609: Pressure level 2,920, support level 2,717. - RM2605: Pressure level 2,444, support level 2,220. - RM2607: Pressure level 2,429, support level 2,200. - RM2609: Pressure level 2,448, support level 2,274. - Arbitrage: None [4]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The vegetable oil market shows a differentiated trend. Rapeseed oil is the strongest, and long positions in the far - month contracts can continue to be held. Soybean oil has effective support at the lower edge of the oscillation range, and short - term long positions can be entered. Palm oil is the weakest, and long - term investors should wait for short - selling opportunities after a rebound, while short - term rebound space is limited [1][3]. - In the protein market, after the main contract shift, the 05 contract of soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows a strong trend. Long positions in the far - month 05 contracts can be held, but large increases are not expected due to sufficient supply [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Market 3.1.1 Market Review - On November 28, due to floods in Southeast Asia, the Malaysian palm oil price rose, driving the overall strength of the vegetable oil sector. The closing price of the soybean oil main contract Y2601 was 8244 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0.24% and a daily decrease of 10124 lots in positions. The closing price of the second - main contract Y2605 was 8040 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0.47% and a daily increase of 11685 lots in positions. The closing price of the palm oil main contract P2601 was 8626 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 1.15% and a daily decrease of 33791 lots in positions. The closing price of the second - main contract P2605 was 8678 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 1.02% and a daily decrease of 813 lots in positions. The closing price of the rapeseed oil main contract OI2601 was 9757 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.15% and a daily decrease of 5986 lots in positions. The closing price of the second - main contract OI2605 was 9501 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.04% and a daily increase of 5853 lots in positions [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - On November 26, international oil prices rebounded from a one - month low. The most actively traded January crude oil futures contract on NYMEX rose 0.70 US dollars or 1.21%, settling at 58.65 US dollars per barrel [1]. - The US government is considering delaying the proposed plan to cut import subsidies for biofuels by one to two years. The original plan was to take effect on January 1, 2026 [1]. - Flood warnings in Southeast Asia have made the market nervous as floods may disrupt palm oil harvesting and transportation [1]. - From November 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 5.49% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area increasing by 3.34% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.41% month - on - month [1]. - From November 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 987,978 tons, a 16.4% decrease compared to the same period in October [1]. - In October, India's palm oil imports dropped to the lowest level in five months, and the palm oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 16% to 7.56 million tons, the lowest in five years [1]. - As of the 47th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.4348 million tons, a weekly increase of 23,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.96%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.40% [1]. - Research institution CGS International Research said that the vegetable oil market is supported by increased demand, which will lead to a further increase in the price of crude palm oil. It is also expected that the global biodiesel demand will grow strongly in 2026, providing structural support for global vegetable oil prices [3]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - In the external market, the US soybean market is expected to strengthen after adjustment, driving the recovery of US soybean oil. In the Malaysian market, floods and the fulfillment of previous negative factors have led to a significant increase. In the domestic market, although the supply of vegetable oil raw materials is sufficient and the inventory is good, the continuous loss of import and crushing profits of domestic oil mills has led to their willingness to support prices. The domestic rapeseed inventory is zero, and the rapeseed oil inventory is still being depleted [3]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading: For palm oil, short - term long positions can be taken during the rebound, and long - term short - selling opportunities can be waited for after the rebound. For soybean oil, a trading strategy based on the oscillation range is recommended, with long positions entered at the lower edge of the range. For rapeseed oil, a bullish view is taken, and long positions in the far - month contracts can be continued to hold. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for each contract [3]. - For arbitrage trading: No arbitrage strategies are recommended at present. 3.2 Protein Market 3.2.1 Market Review - On November 28, the US market was closed for Thanksgiving. After the main contract shift of domestic soybean meal, the near - month contract rose significantly without pressure, driving the overall protein sector to rise. The closing price of the soybean meal main contract M2601 was 3044 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.36% and a daily decrease of 48625 lots in positions. The closing price of the second - main contract M2605 was 2845 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0.25% and a daily increase of 46714 lots in positions. The closing price of the rapeseed meal main contract RM2601 was 2452 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.69% and a daily decrease of 18576 lots in positions. The closing price of the second - main contract RM2605 was 2415 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0.04% and a daily increase of 18772 lots in positions [3]. 3.2.2 Important Information - In 2026, the US soybean planting area is expected to increase by 4%, from 81.1 million acres in 2025 to 84.5 million acres [3]. - Since November 10, China has resumed the soybean import licenses of three US companies [4]. - As of November 13, the sowing progress of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop was 71%, higher than 61% a week ago but lower than 80% in the same period last year [4]. - The consulting firm StoneX predicts that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean output may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the previous forecast of 175 million tons by the US Department of Agriculture [4]. - In the first three weeks of November, Brazil's soybean export pace was significantly higher than that of the same period last year [4]. - There are rumors that there are problems with the import procedures of Australian rapeseed, which may delay the crushing time. In addition, the Russian government has decided to cancel the railway transportation price reduction coefficient for food from 2026 [4]. - As of the 47th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 7.78 million tons, an increase of 158,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total inventory of imported rapeseed was 0 tons, the same as the previous week [4]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - In the external market, the adjusted US soybean has attracted buyers, and the price has rebounded. In the domestic market, the overall supply - demand situation is stable, and feed enterprises maintain rigid demand replenishment. The rapeseed meal price has broken through the 2450 - yuan pressure level. Whether the price can further rise depends on the performance of the US soybean market after the resumption of trading [4]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading: Long positions in the far - month 05 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal can be continued to hold, and specific support and resistance levels are provided for each contract [4][5]. - For arbitrage trading: No arbitrage strategies are recommended at present.