Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 2 月 6 日星期周五 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2 月 5 日，有色板块再度大跌，文华指数走弱，植物油板块转跌，但是跌势不大。 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8104 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.44%，日减仓 | | | | | 12674 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 8046 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.35%，日增 | | | | | 仓 9525 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 9042 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 1.05%，日减 | | | | | 仓 13432 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主力合约 P2609 报收于 901 ...

转自：期货日报 近期，中加经贸关系回暖的消息让国内豆粕市场再起波澜。在加拿大菜籽进口关税下调预期的影响下， 豆粕期货2605合约近期持续下跌。 值得注意的是，21日收盘，油粕比（豆油期货价格／豆粕期货价格）上涨至2.95（其中豆油期货价格为 8044元／吨，豆粕期货价格为2725元／吨），处于历史高位。自2013年以来，油粕比均值为2.26；比值 处于2.5以上的概率为21.26%，处于1.9以下的概率为8.99%。 "此次豆粕价格回调的直接原因，是中加达成一系列经贸合作共识。"中州期货农产品分析师吴晓杰告诉 记者，加拿大总理办公室公告显示，3月1日前，预计中国将降低对加拿大菜籽的关税税率至15%，预计 加拿大菜粕将不再面临反制关税。这一消息直接推动国内菜粕价格大幅下跌，其影响外溢至豆粕市场， 导致2605合约大幅回调。 国元期货油脂油料分析师刘金鹭表示，此前加拿大菜籽对我国的出口基本停滞，菜粕供应偏紧。中加达 成一系列经贸合作共识后，加菜粕进口成本大幅降低，市场预期3月后加菜籽及菜粕进口量将激增，这 对豆粕需求形成了短期冲击。 在陈界正看来，国际大豆市场供需依然偏宽松，南美产区丰产压力仍将压制豆粕价格。短期 ...

近期，中加经贸关系回暖的消息让国内豆粕市场再起波澜。在加拿大菜籽进口关税下调预期的影响下， 豆粕期货2605合约近期持续下跌。 值得注意的是，21日收盘，油粕比（豆油期货价格/豆粕期货价格）上涨至2.95（其中豆油期货价格为 8044元/吨，豆粕期货价格为2725元/吨），处于历史高位。自2013年以来，油粕比均值为2.26；比值处 于2.5以上的概率为21.26%，处于1.9以下的概率为8.99%。 国元期货油脂油料分析师刘金鹭表示，此前加拿大菜籽对我国的出口基本停滞，菜粕供应偏紧。中加达 成一系列经贸合作共识后，加菜粕进口成本大幅降低，市场预期3月后加菜籽及菜粕进口量将激增，这 对豆粕需求形成了短期冲击。 在陈界正看来，国际大豆市场供需依然偏宽松，南美产区丰产压力仍将压制豆粕价格。短期需关注春节 前备货需求的持续性与南美大豆收割、运输进度。 国内豆粕市场基本面也出现了一些积极变化。吴晓杰表示，截至1月16日当周，国内油厂豆粕商业库存 为95万吨，已经连续第二周去库。"这一方面源于元旦过后油厂开机尚未完全恢复，周度压榨量持续处 于200万吨以下，供应有所放缓；另一方面，全国大部分地区启动春节备货，下游用户元 ...

国内豆粕市场基本面也出现了一些积极变化。吴晓杰表示，截至1月16日当周，国内油厂豆粕商业库存 为95万吨，已经连续第二周去库。"这一方面源于元旦过后油厂开机尚未完全恢复，周度压榨量持续处 于200万吨以下，供应有所放缓；另一方面，全国大部分地区启动春节备货，下游用户元旦后陆续加快 提货节奏，增加物理库存，从全国平均水平来看，截至1月16日当周，饲料企业库存可用天数为12.84 天，环比增加14%。" 据刘金鹭介绍，临近春节，豆粕正加速去库。1月进口大豆到港量减少，全月压榨量预计降至800万吨， 豆粕产出受限，预计一季度国内豆粕供应偏紧格局将延续；需求端，畜禽存栏处于高位，饲料刚性需求 坚实，近期油厂提货数据显示，下游饲料企业从随用随采转向适度备货，提货积极性显著提升。 不过，市场仍存在不容忽视的利空因素。吴晓杰表示，本周油厂压榨量再次回到200万吨以上，春节前 或保持该水平，而备货增量相对有限，市场整体供应充裕，这限制了现货一口价与基差的走势。 国际市场方面，陈界正分析称，南美地区整体丰产特征比较明显，巴西产量大幅增加，在国际需求增量 有限的背景下，后续巴西货源的报价面临回落压力，这也给豆粕成本端带来潜在压力 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The vegetable oil sector is expected to remain weak in the medium to long - term due to sufficient supply, while the two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) market will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the medium term [2][3][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Vegetable Oil Market Performance on January 8 - Soybean oil: The main contract Y2605 closed at 7944 yuan/ton, down 0.18% day - on - day, with an increase of 20895 lots in open interest; the second - main contract Y2609 closed at 7814 yuan/ton, up 0.08% day - on - day, with an increase of 2413 lots in open interest [2] - Palm oil: The main contract P2605 closed at 8612 yuan/ton, up 0.58% day - on - day, with an increase of 326 lots in open interest; the second - main contract P2609 closed at 8500 yuan/ton, up 0.57% day - on - day, with an increase of 1940 lots in open interest [2] - Rapeseed oil: The main contract OI2605 closed at 8956 yuan/ton, down 1.53% day - on - day, with a decrease of 20113 lots in open interest; the second - main contract OI2609 closed at 8943 yuan/ton, down 1.52% day - on - day, with an increase of 977 lots in open interest [2] Important Information - China is willing to cancel tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in exchange for Canada canceling tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [2] - In November 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing volume was 6.615 million short tons (2.21 billion bushels), lower than the revised 7.09 million short tons in October but higher than 6.3 million short tons in November last year [2] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month [2] - From December 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 9.12% month - on - month [2] - From December 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 1.6% compared with the same period in November [2] - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory addition program in the second half of 2026 [2] Market Logic - Externally, international crude oil has risen, boosting the strength of U.S. soybean oil. Domestically, soybean oil is under pressure due to negative rapeseed - related news; palm oil is oscillating due to a combination of inventory pressure and strong international crude oil; rapeseed oil has fallen rapidly due to China - Canada negotiation news [2][3] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Vegetable oils are generally bearish but show some differentiation. Soybean oil is bearish, palm oil is oscillating in the medium term and bearish in the long term, and short positions in rapeseed oil should be held [3] - Arbitrage: Exit the previously concerned strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil spread [3] Two - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market Performance on January 8 - Soybean meal: The main contract M2605 closed at 31418 yuan/ton, down 1.03% day - on - day, with an increase of 2782 lots in open interest; the second - main contract M2609 closed at 2875 yuan/ton, down 0.45% day - on - day, with an increase of 3858 lots in open interest [3] - Rapeseed meal: The main contract RM2605 closed at 2358 yuan/ton, down 2.52% day - on - day, with an increase of 64896 lots in open interest; the second - main contract RM2609 closed at 2419 yuan/ton, down 1.87% day - on - day, with an increase of 7102 lots in open interest [3] Important Information - U.S. farmers are expected to increase soybean planting area to 85 million acres in the 2026/2027 season [3][4] - As of December 18, 2025, the U.S. soybean exports to China in the 2025/26 season were 659,000 tons [4] - StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season may reach 178.9 million tons [4] - As of January 3, 2026, Brazil's 2025/26 season soybean harvest progress was 0.1% [4] - As of December 30, Argentina's 2025/26 season soybean sowing was 82% complete [4] - Brazil's soybean exports in December 2025 are expected to be 3.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 69% [4] Market Logic - Externally, the bottom of U.S. soybeans is supported, but the upside is limited. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal has increased, while rapeseed meal has been affected by news and has seen a high - level correction [3][4][5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The two - meal market should maintain a bottom - oscillating mindset in the medium term and engage in intraday trading [5] - Arbitrage: No arbitrage strategy is proposed for now [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The vegetable oil sector is expected to rebound from the bottom and mainly oscillate at a low level, waiting for long - term short - selling opportunities after the rebound. The two - meal sector is expected to rebound from a low level, and new selling points should be sought after the rebound ends [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Vegetable Oil Sector Market Review - On December 24, the strength and weakness of the vegetable oil sector were further differentiated. Rapeseed oil stopped falling and rebounded significantly, while soybean oil and palm oil were weak. The closing prices and daily changes of the main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are as follows: - Soybean oil: The main contract Y2605 closed at 7,764 yuan/ton, down 0.10% day - on - day, with an increase of 1,562 lots in positions; the secondary contract Y2609 closed at 7,700 yuan/ton, down 0.23% day - on - day, with an increase of 119 lots in positions. - Palm oil: The main contract P2605 closed at 8,488 yuan/ton, up 0.02% day - on - day, with a decrease of 37,874 lots in positions; the secondary contract P2609 closed at 8,364 yuan/ton, down 0.10% day - on - day, with an increase of 360 lots in positions. - Rapeseed oil: The main contract OI2605 closed at 8,980 yuan/ton, up 1.50% day - on - day, with an increase of 7,936 lots in positions; the secondary contract OI2609 closed at 8,938 yuan/ton, up 1.02% day - on - day, with a decrease of 35 lots in positions [1] Important Information - International oil prices closed slightly lower on December 24, and are expected to record the largest annual decline since 2020. The most actively traded February crude oil futures contract on NYMEX fell 0.03 dollars or 0.05% to settle at 58.35 dollars per barrel. - The market speculates that the Trump administration will make a decision on the 45Z tax credit for sustainable aviation fuel next week. Since January 1, 2026, the tax credit for US biodiesel producers will increase to 64 cents per gallon, and that for renewable diesel producers will increase to 53 cents per gallon. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, with 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil. - From December 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.15% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area down 6.26% and the oil extraction rate (OER) down 0.17%. - From December 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 851,057 tons, a 2.4% increase compared to the same period in November. Exports to China were 102,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons compared to the same period last month. - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared to 2025. The PSO total allocation decreased slightly. Indonesia launched a B50 road test in December, and the energy minister said the mandatory B50 addition plan will start in the second half of 2026. - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.2936 million tons, a weekly decrease of 17,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.30%. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.3178 million tons, a weekly decrease of 25,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.89%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.76%; edible palm oil inventory was 617,800 tons, a weekly increase of 33,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.75%, and a year - on - year increase of 26.08%; rapeseed oil inventory was 358,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 25,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.75%, and a year - on - year decrease of 28.29%. - As of December 24, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,320 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30 yuan/ton; the basis was 556 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 38 yuan/ton; the average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,470 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton, the basis was - 18 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 98 yuan/ton, and the palm oil import profit was - 437.03 yuan/ton. The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 130 yuan/ton, the basis was 570 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3 yuan/ton. - As of December 24, the oil - meal ratio of the main soybean oil and soybean meal contracts was 2.85 [1][2] Market Logic - External market: Before the Christmas holiday in the US market, capital adjustment drove up the price of US soybean oil. Although international crude oil prices rose, the overall inventory pressure in Southeast Asia and the lack of enthusiasm for purchases by major consumer countries made the rebound of Malaysian palm oil show signs of weakness. - Domestic market: For domestic soybean oil, factory inventory decreased by 25,000 tons, indicating a short - term supply shortage, but the high crushing volume and operating rate of oil mills coexisted with long and short factors, and traders were cautious in stocking up. For palm oil, the strong performance of US soybean oil before the holiday may boost the domestic market, and attention should be paid to whether it can effectively break through the pressure of the 20 - day moving average. For rapeseed oil, due to market news that many traders planned to take delivery of the 2601 rapeseed oil warehouse receipts and actively inquired about the price of crude rapeseed oil, and the continuous reduction of rapeseed oil inventory in East China, the 2601 Zhengzhou rapeseed oil contract led the rise in the domestic vegetable oil market, and the 2605 contract followed suit. As the Christmas holiday approached, capital mainly left the market, and the market focused on whether the 05 contract could effectively break through the pressure level of 9,000 yuan. In the spot market, the transaction of genetically modified and non - genetically modified rapeseed oil in East China was good, and the basis quotation was also supported, showing a slight increase of 30 - 50 yuan/ton [2] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: For new vegetable oil orders, conduct intraday trading and maintain a short - term bearish view in the long - term. The pressure and support levels for each contract are as follows: - Y2605: Pressure level 8,400, support level 7,400. - Y2609: Pressure level 8,040, support level 7,370. - P2605: Pressure level 8,626, support level 7,940. - P2609: Pressure level 8,578, support level 7,880. - OI2605: Pressure level 9,200, support level 8,250. - OI2609: Pressure level 9,300, support level 8,400. - Arbitrage: None [2] Two - Meal Sector Market Review - On December 24, the market sentiment was cautious, and the two - meal prices mainly oscillated at a low level. The closing prices and daily changes of the main and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are as follows: - Soybean meal: The main contract M2605 closed at 2,728 yuan/ton, down 0.62% day - on - day, with an increase of 11,121 lots in positions; the secondary contract M2609 closed at 2,850 yuan/ton, down 0.45% day - on - day, with an increase of 4,938 lots in positions. - Rapeseed meal: The main contract RM2605 closed at 2,344 yuan/ton, down 0.21% day - on - day, with an increase of 10,459 lots in positions; the secondary contract RM2609 closed at 2,400 yuan/ton, down 0.12% day - on - day, with an increase of 1,092 lots in positions [2] Important Information - The US Department of Agriculture estimates that in the 2026/2027 season, US farmers will reduce the corn planting area and increase the soybean planting area to 85 million acres. Previously, S&P Global predicted that the US soybean planting area in 2026 would increase by 4% from 81.1 million acres in 2025 to 84.5 million acres. - On Friday, private exporters reported selling 134,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. - As of December 11, the sowing of the 2025/2026 season's soybeans in Brazil was 97% complete, up from 94% a week ago. - StoneX predicts that the 2025/2026 season's soybean production in Brazil may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the USDA's previous estimate of 175 million tons. - As of December 13, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 94.1%, up from 90.3% last week, 96.8% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 90.6%. - Brazil's soybean exports in December are expected to be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's estimate of 3.33 million tons. - US farmers welcomed the latest 12 - billion - dollar agricultural aid plan announced by President Trump but generally believed that this amount was far from enough to make up for the industry's losses of 34 - 44 billion dollars this year. - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 764,600 tons, a decrease of 40,900 tons compared to last week, 591,900 tons in the same period last year, and the five - week average was 785,900 tons. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 109,500 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.38%; the contract volume was 467,000 tons, a decrease of 184,900 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 28.36%. The total inventory of imported rapeseed was 6,000 tons, the same as last week, 81,900 tons in the same period last year, and the five - week average was 5,000 tons. The inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal was 0 tons, the same as last week, and the contract volume was also 0 tons, the same as last week. - On December 19, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction 550,143.732 tons of imported soybeans from the State Reserve, and the actual transaction volume was 179,701.674 tons, with a transaction rate of 32.66% and an average transaction price of 3,751 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 80 yuan/ton. - As of December 24, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,120 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 22,000 tons; the basis price of soybean meal was 3,080 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 141,000 tons; the basis of the main soybean meal contract was 372 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 17 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal was 2,426 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0 tons; the basis price of rapeseed meal was 2,469 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 18 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0 tons; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 236 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton. - The US soybean January futures crushing profit was - 481 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing profit was - 79 yuan/ton; the Brazilian soybean February futures crushing profit was - 99 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing profit was 246 yuan/ton. - The arrival cost of US Gulf soybeans for January shipment at Zhangjiagang with normal tariffs was 3,908 yuan/ton, and the cost of Brazilian soybeans for February shipment at Zhangjiagang was 3,577 yuan/ton. The CNF quote of US Gulf soybeans for January shipment was 481 dollars/ton, and the CNF quote of Brazilian soybeans for February shipment was 440 dollars/ton. The CNF quote of Canadian rapeseed for January shipment was 489 dollars/ton, and the arrival cost of rapeseed for January shipment at Guangzhou Port was 4,175 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 60 yuan/ton [2][3] Market Logic - External market: Capital adjustment before Christmas led to a rebound in US soybean prices. In the spot market, most oil mill quotes remained stable, with some local areas reducing prices by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The overall spot trading was stable, lacking obvious driving factors. Under the high - inventory pressure, traders made rolling replenishments, and feed mills maintained safety inventories and made rigid purchases. They were rational about Spring Festival stocking. Currently, the spot supply of high - protein rapeseed meal in North and South China is relatively tight, so the basis quotation is expected to remain stable with a slight increase of 10 - 20 yuan/ton. In the short term, Zhengzhou rapeseed meal is expected to have strong support at the bottom and mainly adjust through range - bound oscillations [3] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to rebound from a low level, and new selling points should be sought after the rebound ends. The pressure and support levels for each contract are as follows: - M2605: Pressure level 2,858, support level 2,660. - M2607: Pressure level 2,840, support level 2,559. - M2609: Pressure level 2,920, support level 2,717. - RM2605: Pressure level 2,444, support level 2,220. - RM2607: Pressure level 2,429, support level 2,200. - RM2609: Pressure level 2,448, support level 2,274. - Arbitrage: None [4]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The vegetable oil market shows a differentiated trend. Rapeseed oil is the strongest, and long positions in the far - month contracts can continue to be held. Soybean oil has effective support at the lower edge of the oscillation range, and short - term long positions can be entered. Palm oil is the weakest, and long - term investors should wait for short - selling opportunities after a rebound, while short - term rebound space is limited [1][3]. - In the protein market, after the main contract shift, the 05 contract of soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows a strong trend. Long positions in the far - month 05 contracts can be held, but large increases are not expected due to sufficient supply [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Market 3.1.1 Market Review - On November 28, due to floods in Southeast Asia, the Malaysian palm oil price rose, driving the overall strength of the vegetable oil sector. The closing price of the soybean oil main contract Y2601 was 8244 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0.24% and a daily decrease of 10124 lots in positions. The closing price of the second - main contract Y2605 was 8040 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0.47% and a daily increase of 11685 lots in positions. The closing price of the palm oil main contract P2601 was 8626 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 1.15% and a daily decrease of 33791 lots in positions. The closing price of the second - main contract P2605 was 8678 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 1.02% and a daily decrease of 813 lots in positions. The closing price of the rapeseed oil main contract OI2601 was 9757 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.15% and a daily decrease of 5986 lots in positions. The closing price of the second - main contract OI2605 was 9501 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.04% and a daily increase of 5853 lots in positions [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - On November 26, international oil prices rebounded from a one - month low. The most actively traded January crude oil futures contract on NYMEX rose 0.70 US dollars or 1.21%, settling at 58.65 US dollars per barrel [1]. - The US government is considering delaying the proposed plan to cut import subsidies for biofuels by one to two years. The original plan was to take effect on January 1, 2026 [1]. - Flood warnings in Southeast Asia have made the market nervous as floods may disrupt palm oil harvesting and transportation [1]. - From November 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 5.49% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area increasing by 3.34% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.41% month - on - month [1]. - From November 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 987,978 tons, a 16.4% decrease compared to the same period in October [1]. - In October, India's palm oil imports dropped to the lowest level in five months, and the palm oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 16% to 7.56 million tons, the lowest in five years [1]. - As of the 47th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.4348 million tons, a weekly increase of 23,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.96%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.40% [1]. - Research institution CGS International Research said that the vegetable oil market is supported by increased demand, which will lead to a further increase in the price of crude palm oil. It is also expected that the global biodiesel demand will grow strongly in 2026, providing structural support for global vegetable oil prices [3]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - In the external market, the US soybean market is expected to strengthen after adjustment, driving the recovery of US soybean oil. In the Malaysian market, floods and the fulfillment of previous negative factors have led to a significant increase. In the domestic market, although the supply of vegetable oil raw materials is sufficient and the inventory is good, the continuous loss of import and crushing profits of domestic oil mills has led to their willingness to support prices. The domestic rapeseed inventory is zero, and the rapeseed oil inventory is still being depleted [3]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading: For palm oil, short - term long positions can be taken during the rebound, and long - term short - selling opportunities can be waited for after the rebound. For soybean oil, a trading strategy based on the oscillation range is recommended, with long positions entered at the lower edge of the range. For rapeseed oil, a bullish view is taken, and long positions in the far - month contracts can be continued to hold. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for each contract [3]. - For arbitrage trading: No arbitrage strategies are recommended at present. 3.2 Protein Market 3.2.1 Market Review - On November 28, the US market was closed for Thanksgiving. After the main contract shift of domestic soybean meal, the near - month contract rose significantly without pressure, driving the overall protein sector to rise. The closing price of the soybean meal main contract M2601 was 3044 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.36% and a daily decrease of 48625 lots in positions. The closing price of the second - main contract M2605 was 2845 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0.25% and a daily increase of 46714 lots in positions. The closing price of the rapeseed meal main contract RM2601 was 2452 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.69% and a daily decrease of 18576 lots in positions. The closing price of the second - main contract RM2605 was 2415 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0.04% and a daily increase of 18772 lots in positions [3]. 3.2.2 Important Information - In 2026, the US soybean planting area is expected to increase by 4%, from 81.1 million acres in 2025 to 84.5 million acres [3]. - Since November 10, China has resumed the soybean import licenses of three US companies [4]. - As of November 13, the sowing progress of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop was 71%, higher than 61% a week ago but lower than 80% in the same period last year [4]. - The consulting firm StoneX predicts that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean output may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the previous forecast of 175 million tons by the US Department of Agriculture [4]. - In the first three weeks of November, Brazil's soybean export pace was significantly higher than that of the same period last year [4]. - There are rumors that there are problems with the import procedures of Australian rapeseed, which may delay the crushing time. In addition, the Russian government has decided to cancel the railway transportation price reduction coefficient for food from 2026 [4]. - As of the 47th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 7.78 million tons, an increase of 158,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total inventory of imported rapeseed was 0 tons, the same as the previous week [4]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - In the external market, the adjusted US soybean has attracted buyers, and the price has rebounded. In the domestic market, the overall supply - demand situation is stable, and feed enterprises maintain rigid demand replenishment. The rapeseed meal price has broken through the 2450 - yuan pressure level. Whether the price can further rise depends on the performance of the US soybean market after the resumption of trading [4]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading: Long positions in the far - month 05 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal can be continued to hold, and specific support and resistance levels are provided for each contract [4][5]. - For arbitrage trading: No arbitrage strategies are recommended at present.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy**: None - **Hold**: Soybean, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, egg [1] - **Sell**: None Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products show different trends, with some in high - level oscillations, some rising or falling, and the future trends depend on multiple factors such as policies, supply - demand, and international trade relations [2][3][4] - Different agricultural products have different investment strategies, including waiting for opportunities to go long, short - term waiting and seeing, and expecting limited rebounds [3][6][7] Summary by Commodity Soybean and Related Products - **Soybean**: The price of domestic soybeans is in high - level oscillation. The restart of soybean auction by Sinograin cools the market sentiment, while the purchase by Sinograin warehouses shows the advantage of high - protein soybean prices. The warehouse receipts of domestic soybeans increase with the rebound of imported soybeans. Short - term focus is on policies and market sentiment [2] - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The main contract of soybean meal futures oscillates. US soybeans are in a wide - range oscillation after a strong rise. The import tax rate of US soybeans in China is changed to 13%, but commercial imports still have no price advantage. The supply of soybeans is expected to be basically sufficient in Q4, and there may be inventory reduction in Q1 next year. The sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans is 58.4% as of November 8th. Focus on the USDA November supply - demand report and look for long - buying opportunities after the Sino - US trade eases [3] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Soybean oil and palm oil follow rapeseed oil to strengthen. The short - and medium - term supply - demand of rapeseed oil is strong, which boosts the price of soybean and palm oil. The high inventory of palm oil in Malaysia needs attention. The loss of the near - end crushing profit of imported soybeans supports soybean oil. The oil - meal ratio shows that soybean oil is stronger than soybean meal this week. The price of palm oil is in a horizontal oscillation, and its supply - demand and the trend of surrounding oils need attention [4] Rapeseed Products - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The positions and trading volume of domestic rapeseed futures contracts increase, maintaining the trend of strong oil and weak meal. The shortage of rapeseed in coastal areas leads to a more than expected decline in the inventory of rapeseed products, especially rapeseed oil, which supports its price. Supply - side focus is on the arrival time of Australian rapeseeds, the data adjustment of the USDA supply - demand report, and the Sino - Canadian relations. Short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [6] Corn - The 2601 contract of Dalian corn futures rises by 0.93% with reduced positions. The estimated output of this season's corn is 3 billion tons, a 1.72% increase. The spot price is strong in some areas due to temperature drop and reduced supply. The price of wheat starts to weaken. The high - level supply of grains in the Northeast has not passed, and the rebound height of the 01 contract of Dalian corn futures is expected to be limited, and it may continue to operate at the bottom [7] Livestock and Poultry Products - **Pig**: The spot price of pigs decreases slightly, while the futures show a significant increase in positions, and the near - month January contract drops sharply. The high price difference between fattening pigs may slow down the overall slaughter rhythm, and the pig price may have a seasonal rebound. In the long - term, the pig price may have a second bottom - probing next year [8] - **Egg**: The far - month egg futures price rises sharply and breaks through the previous oscillation platform. The reason is the expected decline in the laying - hen inventory due to the sharp decrease in chick replenishment in the second half of this year. The near - month contracts are weak due to the weakening of the spot price. The overall egg price is stable with some provincial declines. Focus on the spot performance and old - hen culling, and wait and see for now [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy**: Beans for domestic consumption, Bean Meal, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil [1] - **Hold**: Corn, Live Pigs, Eggs [1] Core Views - Uncertainties remain high in the agricultural products market, with significant impact from Sino-US trade relations and policy guidance [3][4][6] - Maintain a wait-and-see attitude due to many uncertain factors, and look for investment opportunities [3] - Long-term, it is advisable to allocate edible oils at low prices, but be cautious about short-term price fluctuations [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Beans for Domestic Consumption - The main contract of domestic soybeans rose and then fell. The trading volume was 52,003 tons, with a trading rate of 79.76% and an average price of 3,910 yuan/ton, providing market guidance [2] - The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans rose and then fell. Pay attention to the impact of short-term profit-taking [2] - Keep an eye on policy guidance in the short term [2] Soybeans & Bean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybeans rose 0.58% in shock, and domestic bean meal spot prices generally increased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton [3] - Overall, soybean supply in the fourth quarter is not a big problem, but it may tighten in the first quarter of next year if Sino-US trade relations deteriorate [3] - If Sino-US trade relations do not ease, Dalian soybeans are likely to continue to fluctuate. Wait and see for opportunities [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The oil-to-meal ratio continued to decline [4] - Palm oil enters the production reduction cycle in the fourth quarter. Its price depends on production reduction performance. Pay attention to the adjustment risk of the oil-to-meal ratio [4] - In the long term, allocate edible oils at low prices, but be cautious about short-term price corrections of palm oil [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed futures showed small fluctuations. Rapeseed oil slightly reduced positions, and the market was still cautious [6] - Coastal oil mills have low rapeseed inventories, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation for domestic rapeseed oil [6] - The main contract price of rapeseed futures will mainly fluctuate. Pay attention to the trend of economic and trade relations and consider cross-competitor strategies with rapeseed as the short side [6] Corn - Corn futures traded sideways. Northeast corn prices were stable, and Shandong's corn supply increased [7] - Downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. Dalian corn may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures' near-term contracts fluctuated, and far-term contracts hit new lows [8] - Spot prices were stable, and second-round fattening sentiment weakened [8] - There is an expectation of improved pork consumption in the fourth quarter, but maintain a short-selling strategy after the price rebounds [8] Eggs - Egg futures rebounded with reduced positions. Spot prices rebounded [9] - Pay attention to short-term risks. There may be a decline in the medium term [9]

1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: The market's concern about the end - of - month inventory growth will support the market. The futures of crude palm oil may start an upward trend. It is recommended to go long on dips. - Soybean oil: The digestion of the US biodiesel policy has ended. The domestic spot trading is light, but the market sentiment may improve in August [1]. Meal Industry - The US soybean remains in a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Livestock (Pig) Industry - The pig spot market is weak. The short - term pig price is not optimistic, with the near - month contract facing strong resistance. It is not advisable to short the far - month contract blindly [4]. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn market is not active, with the futures oscillating. In the long run, the supply may be tight in the third quarter and loose in the fourth quarter [6]. Sugar Industry - Internationally, the raw sugar price may bottom out, but the overall trend is bearish. Domestically, the supply - demand situation is marginally loose, with the futures expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [8]. Egg Industry - The egg demand may first decrease and then increase this week. The egg price in some regions may decline next week, but the spot price still has some upward potential [11]. Cotton Industry - The short - term domestic cotton price may oscillate within a range, and the price may face pressure after the new cotton is launched [14]. 3. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices**: On July 28 - 29, the spot and futures prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different changes, with the basis and spreads also fluctuating. - **Inventory and Market Outlook**: Palm oil inventory concerns support the market, and soybean oil may improve in August [1]. Meal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans changed, with the spreads such as the inter - period spreads and oil - meal ratios also showing fluctuations. - **Market Situation**: The US soybean is at the bottom, and the domestic supply and demand situation affects the meal market [2]. Livestock (Pig) Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The futures and spot prices of pigs changed, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and slaughter volume. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term pig price is not optimistic, and the far - month contract needs cautious operation [4]. Corn Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The prices of corn and corn starch futures and spot, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and inventory, changed. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term market is inactive, and the long - term supply - demand situation varies [6]. Sugar Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The futures and spot prices of sugar, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and inventory, changed. - **Market Outlook**: The international raw sugar is bearish, and the domestic supply - demand is marginally loose [8]. Egg Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The prices of eggs, egg - related products, and indicators such as the basis, spreads, and production costs changed. - **Market Outlook**: The demand may fluctuate, and the price may decline and then rise [11]. Cotton Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The futures and spot prices of cotton, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and inventory, changed. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term price oscillates, and the long - term price may face pressure [14].