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广发期货《农产品》日报-20250730
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 02:09
1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: The market's concern about the end - of - month inventory growth will support the market. The futures of crude palm oil may start an upward trend. It is recommended to go long on dips. - Soybean oil: The digestion of the US biodiesel policy has ended. The domestic spot trading is light, but the market sentiment may improve in August [1]. Meal Industry - The US soybean remains in a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Livestock (Pig) Industry - The pig spot market is weak. The short - term pig price is not optimistic, with the near - month contract facing strong resistance. It is not advisable to short the far - month contract blindly [4]. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn market is not active, with the futures oscillating. In the long run, the supply may be tight in the third quarter and loose in the fourth quarter [6]. Sugar Industry - Internationally, the raw sugar price may bottom out, but the overall trend is bearish. Domestically, the supply - demand situation is marginally loose, with the futures expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [8]. Egg Industry - The egg demand may first decrease and then increase this week. The egg price in some regions may decline next week, but the spot price still has some upward potential [11]. Cotton Industry - The short - term domestic cotton price may oscillate within a range, and the price may face pressure after the new cotton is launched [14]. 3. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices**: On July 28 - 29, the spot and futures prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different changes, with the basis and spreads also fluctuating. - **Inventory and Market Outlook**: Palm oil inventory concerns support the market, and soybean oil may improve in August [1]. Meal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans changed, with the spreads such as the inter - period spreads and oil - meal ratios also showing fluctuations. - **Market Situation**: The US soybean is at the bottom, and the domestic supply and demand situation affects the meal market [2]. Livestock (Pig) Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The futures and spot prices of pigs changed, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and slaughter volume. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term pig price is not optimistic, and the far - month contract needs cautious operation [4]. Corn Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The prices of corn and corn starch futures and spot, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and inventory, changed. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term market is inactive, and the long - term supply - demand situation varies [6]. Sugar Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The futures and spot prices of sugar, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and inventory, changed. - **Market Outlook**: The international raw sugar is bearish, and the domestic supply - demand is marginally loose [8]. Egg Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The prices of eggs, egg - related products, and indicators such as the basis, spreads, and production costs changed. - **Market Outlook**: The demand may fluctuate, and the price may decline and then rise [11]. Cotton Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The futures and spot prices of cotton, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and inventory, changed. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term price oscillates, and the long - term price may face pressure [14].
产地供给并不宽松 菜籽油继续下行空间收窄
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-30 08:48
6月30日,加拿大菜籽(7月船期)C&F价格595美元/吨,与上个交易日相比上调1美元/吨;加拿大菜籽(8 月船期)C&F价格585美元/吨,与上个交易日相比上调1美元/吨。 分析观点: 方正中期期货研报:原油价格大幅回落,对菜油生柴掺混利润有利空影响。国内菜油现货供需仍偏宽 松。新季菜籽预期增产,中加贸易关系有好转预期,新季菜籽榨利尚可,市场信息国内新增菜籽买船, 对菜系商品价格产生利空影响。美国和巴西生柴需求增长使得植物油消费增加,油粕比走高使得利空影 响更多体现在菜粕上。产地菜籽旧作供给并不宽松,菜油09合约继续下行空间收窄。 期货市场上看,6月30日收盘,菜籽油期货主力合约报9415.00元/吨,跌幅0.50%,最高触及9490.00元/ 吨,最低下探9356.00元/吨,日内成交量达355040手。 【市场资讯】 加拿大油籽加工商协会(COPA)发布的油籽压榨数据显示,2025年05月,加拿大油菜籽压榨量为 831193.0吨,环比降9.59%;菜籽油产量为353218.0吨,环比降9.5%。 6月30日,加拿大菜油(7月船期)1050美元/吨,与上个交易日相比持平;加拿大菜油(9月船期)1030美 ...