机构：华创证券 研究员：郑辰/王宏雨 站在当前时点，公司在手项目数量稳步攀升，尤其是商业化验证前期关键环节的 PPQ（工艺验证）项 目持续增加，充分印证公司IND 后管线正加速向商业化阶段转化。随着公司逐步进入商业化项目收获 期，收入体量与利润规模有望实现中长期快速增长。 从ADC 到XDC，生物偶联药物行业高速发展。ADC 药物作为生物偶联药物中最主要的一类，以2024 年销售额计已出现6 款"重磅炸弹"药物；此外，以双抗ADC 和双载荷ADC 为代表的新型ADC 商业化在 即。据Frost & sullivan统计及预测，全球ADC 药物有望于2030 年达到662 亿美元。除了ADC，载体和有 效载荷还可以替换为其他形式的药物，并且有望拓展肿瘤以外的多种适应症，进一步拓宽应用场景。 同时，生物偶联药物开发复杂，高度依赖外包，产业链有望充分受益。据Frost& sullivan 和公司分析， 未来ADC 药物的外包率有望维持在较高水平（~60%），同时格局相对集中，结合公司分析，2025 年药 明合联在全球ADC 外包市场市占率已达到24+%。 药明合联前瞻投入资本开支，生物偶联CRDMO 龙头扬帆起航。 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for WuXi XDC [3][5][15] Core Insights - WuXi XDC is a global leader in bioconjugate drug CRDMO services, with a projected revenue CAGR of 102% from 2022 to 2024, driven by strong industry demand and capacity constraints [1][5] - The company plans to increase its capital expenditures (CAPEX) to over 7 billion RMB by 2029 to expand its production capacity, with significant investments in both domestic and international facilities [1][12] - The report highlights the rapid growth in project numbers and backlog orders, with a total of 13.29 billion USD in unfinished orders as of June 30, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 57.9% [2][12] Summary by Sections Company Overview - WuXi XDC provides comprehensive CRDMO services for bioconjugate drugs, facilitating the entire process from concept to commercialization [22] - The company has executed a total of 858 drug discovery projects since its inception, with 225 ongoing comprehensive projects as of mid-2025 [25] Market Dynamics - The ADC market is experiencing explosive growth, with ADC drugs becoming a prominent treatment modality, accounting for approximately 15.4% of FDA-approved biopharmaceuticals from 2019 to 2022 [40][42] - The global ADC market size has expanded from 2 billion USD in 2018 to 10.4 billion USD in 2023, with a projected CAGR of 38.6% [46] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for WuXi XDC are 60.01 billion RMB, 81.13 billion RMB, and 107.36 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 48.1%, 35.2%, and 32.3% [3][15] - The net profit estimates for the same years are 16.07 billion RMB, 21.71 billion RMB, and 29.10 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 50.3%, 35.1%, and 34.1% [3][15] Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a "global dual-plant production" strategy to enhance supply chain competitiveness, with significant investments in facilities in Shanghai, Wuxi, and Singapore [1][12] - WuXi XDC's advanced WuXiDARx™ technology aims to shorten the development cycle for ADC projects, achieving IND readiness in as little as 15 months [2][12]