Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures is mainly "oscillating weakly", and the medium - term view is "oscillating" [5][6][7] Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: The domestic soybean meal market has a strong wait - and - see atmosphere, with the futures price slightly lower and showing a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength [5] - **Driving Factors**: The US soybean futures price is oscillating. The US soybean export sales exceed expectations, and the cost of imported soybeans still provides support. The domestic oil mills' shutdown arrangements and reluctance to sell support the spot and near - month contracts, but the expectation of a huge amount of Brazilian soybeans arriving in April - May suppresses the far - month prices. The downstream's stocking mentality is cautious. The Middle East situation disturbs the US soybean pricing through the bio - fuel chain, and Brazil's record - high production increases the long - term supply pressure [5] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the market is disturbed by macro - sentiment and cost. After the previous risk premium is withdrawn, trading becomes cautious before the USDA report. The soybean meal futures price mainly operates in an oscillating and weakly manner, and attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm of Brazilian soybeans and policy dynamics [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: The palm oil futures price has continued to be strong recently [7] - **Driving Factors**: External market boosts, high - level operation of international oil prices strengthens the bio - fuel demand expectation, export data is strong (shipment agencies show that the export of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 25 increased by 38.4% - 50.6% month - on - month), and the weakening of the ringgit exchange rate increases the attractiveness to foreign currency buyers. At the same time, the Indonesian government is considering raising the export fee in April, which may affect the supply rhythm. However, India's palm oil imports in March may drop from 848,000 tons in February to 680,000 tons, and the purchasing willingness weakens [7] - **Outlook**: Geopolitical factors, export, and bio - fuel expectations support the palm oil to operate at a high level. Affected by the international oil market, the short - term palm oil futures price fluctuates more sharply at a high level [7] Soybean Oil - **Driving Factors**: Energy attributes, US bio - fuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, cost support of imported soybeans, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]

Core Insights - The global oilseed market is experiencing a mild rebound supported by demand and rising soybean oil prices, but it remains in a consolidation phase due to a lack of sustained momentum [1] - The focus is on the implementation of the US-China trade agreement and the clarification of US biofuel policies, with recent communications between US and Chinese leaders leading to increased purchasing activity [1][2] - Despite confirmed soybean sales to China, the US soybean prices remain unattractive compared to Brazilian supplies, necessitating a price adjustment to attract commercial buyers [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of late November, the US Department of Agriculture confirmed soybean sales to China reached 3.12 million tons, but private estimates suggest China may need to purchase between 3.5 million to 4 million tons in December to meet targets [1] - The Chicago soybean futures are currently priced above $11 per bushel, with expectations that the price gap between US and Brazilian soybeans will widen as Brazilian harvest approaches [2] - The USDA has lowered the US soybean export target to 445 million bushels (approximately 12.1 million tons), marking the lowest level in 12 years, reflecting concerns over competitiveness [3] Group 2: Supply Chain and Quality Concerns - China recently rejected a shipment of 69,000 tons of Brazilian soybeans due to pesticide contamination, raising concerns about supply quality and export processes [4] - In Argentina, soybean planting progress is at 36%, lagging behind both last year and the five-year average, indicating potential supply challenges [5] - The US is facing seasonal export pressure, with cumulative sales lagging 38.3% year-on-year, necessitating an average weekly export volume of approximately 800,000 tons to meet USDA targets [6] Group 3: Future Outlook - The global soybean market is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation pattern in the short term, with close attention on the US-China trade agreement, South American weather conditions, and the finalization of biofuel policies [7]