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棕榈油:美国生柴豁免量恐不及预期,国际油脂上涨,豆油:高位震荡整理
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 02:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The international palm oil price may rise due to the potential disappointment in the US biofuel exemption volume, while the soybean oil price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,436 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.53% change and 9,596 yuan/ton at night with a 1.70% change; soybean oil主力 closed at 8,422 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.24% change and 8,470 yuan/ton at night with a 0.57% change; rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,878 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.23% change and 9,888 yuan/ton at night with a 0.10% change. Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 4,462 ringgit/ton during the day session with a -0.78% change and 4,530 ringgit/ton at night with a 1.57% change. CBOT soybean oil主力 closed at 53.77 cents/pound with a 4.51% change [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 had a trading volume of 58,090 lots with a decrease of 21,471 lots and an open interest of 72,258 lots with a decrease of 25,308 lots; soybean oil主力 had a trading volume of 48,524 lots with a decrease of 49,415 lots and an open interest of 86,598 lots with a decrease of 24,464 lots; rapeseed oil主力 had a trading volume of 20,132 lots with a decrease of 3,487 lots and an open interest of 34,597 lots with a decrease of 4,020 lots [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 degrees) in Guangdong was priced at 9,620 yuan/ton with a 110 yuan change; first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was priced at 8,640 yuan/ton with a 30 yuan change; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was priced at 9,850 yuan/ton with a 20 yuan change. Malaysian palm oil FOB was priced at 1,110 dollars/ton with no change [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 184 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 218 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was -28 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was 291 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was -1,106 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of palm oil was -64 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of soybean oil was 28 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 87 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons at the end of June, despite increased production and accelerated exports. Its palm oil exports reached 3.61 million tons in June, a 35.4% month - on - month increase driven by surging demand from major buyers such as China and India [2]. - The Trump administration is expected to rule on a large number of small refinery biofuel exemption applications as early as this Friday but will delay the decision on whether to require large refineries to make up for some of the exempted quotas. The EPA will rule on 195 outstanding small refinery exemption applications dating back to 2016 on Friday, with a "mixed bag" of results including partial rejections [5]. - From August 1 - 20, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 2.12% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.46% month - on - month, and the production increased by 0.3% month - on - month [5]. - India purchased a batch of rapeseed oil to be delivered in August for the first time in nearly five years due to the high domestic rapeseed oil price [5]. - The IGC's latest monthly report shows that the global soybean production forecast for the 2025/26 season has been slightly increased to 430 million tons (year - on - year +1%), and the trade volume forecast has been raised by 1 million tons compared with the July report, reaching a record high (year - on - year +2%) [6]. - The USDA's latest drought report shows that as of the week ending August 19, about 9% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought (previously 3% and 7% last year), about 5% of US corn - growing areas were affected by drought (previously 4% and 6% last year), and about 22% of US cotton - growing areas were affected by drought (previously 5% and 21% last year) [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 1, and that of soybean oil is 0 [7].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:农产品-20250822
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:48
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: The exemption volume of US biodiesel may fall short of expectations, leading to an increase in international oil prices [2][4]. - Soybean oil: Consolidating at high levels [2][4]. - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans rose significantly, and Dalian soybean meal may rebound [2][11]. - Soybean: Rebounding and fluctuating [2][11]. - Corn: Weakening [2][14]. - Sugar: Trading in a range [2][17]. - Cotton: Futures prices fluctuating narrowly, waiting for new drivers [2][22]. - Eggs: Pay attention to the rhythm of culling laying hens [2][26]. - Pigs: Wait for the spot market to confirm at the end of the month [2][28]. - Peanuts: Pay attention to the listing of new peanuts [2][34]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil and soybean oil futures prices showed different trends in the day - and night - sessions. For example, the palm oil main contract closed at 9,436 yuan/ton during the day session with a decline of 0.53%, and 9,596 yuan/ton at night with an increase of 1.70%. Spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons by the end of June. The US is expected to rule on small refinery biofuel exemptions. Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 20, 2025 increased by 0.3% month - on - month [5][8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean and soybean meal futures prices had different performances. Spot prices of soybean meal in different regions also had corresponding changes, and the trading volume and inventory of soybean meal showed certain trends [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 21, CBOT soybeans rose due to short - covering and bargain - hunting. The US soybean crop is growing well, and the new - season soybean sales exceeded expectations [11][13]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: Corn futures prices showed a downward trend, and important spot prices such as the Jinzhou closing price decreased by 20 yuan/ton. Trading volume and open interest also changed [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn collection port prices remained stable, while prices in the Northeast and North China showed a weakening trend [15]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The original sugar price was 16.35 cents/pound, and the mainstream spot price was 5,990 yuan/ton. The futures main contract price was 5,688 yuan/ton [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon rainfall has decreased. China's sugar imports in July increased by 320,000 tons [17]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: Cotton futures prices fluctuated slightly, and spot prices in different regions such as the North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton decreased slightly. Trading volume, open interest, and basis also had corresponding changes [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading remained weak, and the cotton textile market was generally sluggish. ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly, and the US cotton weekly export sales data was average [23]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg futures prices declined, and the basis and spot prices in different regions showed certain trends [26]. - **No specific macro and industry news provided for eggs in the text**. Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: Pig futures and spot prices had different changes, and the basis and spreads also showed corresponding trends [30]. - **Market Logic**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig farms increased, while demand growth was limited. The market is waiting for government procurement to boost sentiment, and attention should be paid to the risk of a decline in the long - term price center [32]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: Peanut futures prices declined slightly, and important spot prices remained stable. Trading volume, open interest, and basis also had corresponding changes [34]. - **Spot Market Focus**: New peanuts are gradually being listed, with the supply in Henan being acceptable. The prices of white - sand peanuts are slightly weak, while the prices of large peanuts are stable. New peanuts in Jilin are expected to be listed around mid - to late September [35].