事件：公司公布2025 年三季报，公司2025 前三季度实现营业收入1117.90亿元，同比增长15.52%，实现 归母净利润147.79 亿元，同比增长41.01%。 审慎经营降负债，海外业务探索推进。25 年三季度末公司资产负债率55.5%，若考虑10 月份已完成50 亿元权益分配，公司年初制定的降负债目标已经超额完成。未来公司仍会坚持审慎经营原则，争取将资 产负债率降至50%以下。公司港股上市处于证监会备案环节，正在按照流程推进，本次港股发行募集的 资金主要用于拓展公司全球业务。公司积极探索海外业务发展机会，近期公司与BAF 越南公司签署合 作协议，将在越南建设运营楼房养殖项目，将自身技术与体系复制到海外，为公司创造新的增长点。 公司盈利预测及投资评级：我们看好公司作为生猪龙头企业的核心成本优势，预计公司25-27 年归母净 利分别为170.58、240.91 和341.71 亿元，EPS 为3.12、4.41 和6.26 元，PE 为16、12 和8 倍，维持"强烈 推荐"评级。 风险提示：公司生猪销售不及预期，生猪价格波动风险，生猪疫病风险等。 生猪增量降本，成本优势进一步强化。公司25 年前三季度 ...

Group 1 - New Hope Liuhe Co., Ltd. reported a decrease in pig sales in June 2025, with sales of 1.33 million pigs, a month-on-month decrease of 0.29% and a year-on-year increase of 3.38% [1] - The sales revenue for June was 1.871 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 5.12% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.14% [1] - The average selling price of pigs in June dropped to 14.18 yuan/kg, down 2.81% month-on-month and 21.53% year-on-year, marking a new low for the past year [1] Group 2 - In the first quarter of 2025, New Hope achieved operating revenue of 24.417 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.13%, and a net profit of 445 million yuan, indicating a significant turnaround [2] - The company has successfully reduced breeding costs by 1.8 yuan/kg compared to the same period last year, contributing to improved profitability [2] - Future trends suggest that pig prices may exhibit volatility, with expectations of average monthly prices between 13.76 yuan/kg and 15.07 yuan/kg from July to December 2025 [2] Group 3 - The pig farming industry is experiencing increased concentration due to the expansion of leading enterprises and technological advancements, while weaker companies face significant challenges amid low prices and rising costs [3] - The overall profit margins in the industry are being compressed, with many companies selling pigs at prices below 15 yuan/kg, leading to a low-profit operating phase [3] - New Hope's recent operational costs for fattened pigs are approximately 13 yuan/kg, and the company is focusing on four key tasks to reduce costs: epidemic prevention, genetic improvement, flexible management, and enhancing profitability in the fresh food segment [3]

Group 1 - The core focus of the company is to improve its pig farming operations and reduce costs to compete with leading peers in the industry [1][6] - The company aims to lower its pig farming cost to below 13 yuan per kilogram, with a target for excellent operations to reach below 12 yuan per kilogram by the end of the year [6][8] - The company has a significant pig output scale of over 15 million heads, which highlights the importance of cost reduction for improving operational performance [6][10] Group 2 - The company’s pig farming gross margin is currently at 9.97%, which is significantly lower than its competitors, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, whose margins are around 19.21% and 20.3% respectively [2][3] - The company has implemented measures to enhance management of fattening pig farms and improve genetic traits to address long-term issues [3][4] - The company’s revenue sources are primarily from feed business (over 66%) and pig farming (around 30%), with the latter being highly sensitive to price fluctuations [8][9] Group 3 - The company has undergone a leadership change, with a new president appointed to focus on strategic adjustments and long-term growth [7] - The company’s profitability has been significantly affected by the volatility of pig prices, with gross margins swinging from 38.5% in high-price periods to -21.2% during downturns [8][9] - The company expects improved profitability in its pig farming segment this year due to the cessation of previous operational shutdowns and enhancements in disease prevention measures [10]