生猪现货市场分析
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申万期货品种策略日报-生猪(LH)-20260323
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-03-23 10:48
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall pig price in China is stable with a slight downward trend. The prices in the northern market have been slightly adjusted downwards over the weekend, and the terminal consumption is weak with limited demand growth. Although some large-scale farms have reduced their slaughter volume, the overall supply of pigs in the market is sufficient, providing insufficient support for prices. The southern market is also running weakly and stable, with active slaughter by farmers, a loose supply, and weak sales feedback from slaughtering enterprises. The current supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly, and the market lacks the impetus for continuous growth. It is expected that the pig prices in both the north and the south will be subject to narrow - range adjustments in the short term. The abundant supply of pigs and weak terminal consumption remain the main factors restricting the market [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The previous day's closing prices for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 13,545, 9,730, 10,220, 11,280, 12,575, and 12,805 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, the price changes were 140, 130, - 115, - 90, 75, and 95, with corresponding percentage changes of 1.04%, 1.35%, - 1.11%, - 0.79%, 0.60%, and 0.75% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 5,846, 0, 148,035, 39,134, 24,315, and 7,693 respectively. The open interests were 21,949, 42, 203,669, 74,575, 66,889, and 41,452 respectively, with changes of 1,149, - 13, 3,858, 2,375, 1,994, and 1,164 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current spreads for January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January were 3,815, - 490, - 1,060, - 1,295, - 230, and - 740 respectively, compared with the previous values of 3,805, - 735, - 1,035, - 1,130, - 210, and - 695 [2]. Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 10.02, 9.87, 9.87, 10.17, 9.64, and 9.66 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, the price changes were 0, - 19.78, - 0.13, - 0.37, - 0.12, and - 0.08 [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts was 1,051 on the previous day, the same as two days ago, with no change [2].
生猪期货日报-20251107
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 05:36
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current hog market is under short - term pressure, with prices more likely to fall than rise. The market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand due to increased group - farm slaughter, cooling secondary fattening, and insufficient consumption boost. It is expected that the price of the hog futures lh2601 contract will maintain a volatile and weak pattern [13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On November 5, 2025, the hog lh2601 futures contract showed a volatile upward trend, closing at 11,945 points, up 1.57% from the previous day's settlement price. The total trading volume for the day was 136,100 lots, and the open interest was 136,400 lots [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices - The prices of hog futures contracts varied. The total open interest of the variety was 352,273 lots, a decrease of 10,117 lots compared to the previous trading day [4] 3.1.3 Related Quotes - The total trading volume of hog options for the day was 25,809 lots, and the total open interest was 67,555 lots, an increase of 1,879 lots in open interest, with a total of 41 lots exercised on the day [7] 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - Yesterday's hog basis was 510 yuan/ton, and today's basis is 310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Today's basis has significantly converged [8][9] 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - According to the Dalian Commodity Exchange's warehouse receipt report, today's registered warehouse receipts are 90 lots, a decrease of 95 lots from the previous trading day [10] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - According to Mysteel Agricultural Products monitoring data, the planned hog slaughter volume of key provincial - level breeding enterprises in November is 13.9047 million heads, a 2.54% decrease compared to the actual slaughter volume in October. The planned slaughter volumes of enterprises in various regions showed more decreases than increases. Jiangsu had the most significant increase, with a month - on - month increase of over 7%, while Fujian had the most significant decrease, with a month - on - month decrease of over 11% [10] 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - The daily K - line of the hog lh2601 futures variety closed in a positive pattern. It briefly rose during the day, with the K - line near the middle track of the BOLL line, which is showing a narrowing state [11]