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申万期货品种策略日报-生猪(LH)-20260324
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The live pig market is in a weak and volatile state. The national average ex-factory price of outer three - yuan live pigs is 9.69 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous day, showing a pattern of "falling in the north and stable in the south". The market demand has limited growth, and the enthusiasm for second - fattening and frozen product warehousing is average. Pig prices lack upward momentum and are expected to continue bottom - oscillating in the short term with limited downward space [3] Group 3: Summary of Futures Market - **Price and Change**: The previous day's closing prices of live pig futures in January, March, May, July, September, and November were 13,595, 9,300, 9,980, 11,030, 12,300, and 12,725 respectively. The price changes were 50, - 430, - 240, - 250, - 275, and - 80, with percentage changes of 0.37%, - 4.42%, - 2.35%, - 2.22%, - 2.19%, and - 0.62% respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 6,833, 10, 165,979, 40,414, 28,101, and 11,042 respectively. The open interests were 22,325, 27, 207,256, 76,085, 70,009, and 41,772 respectively, with changes of 376, - 15, 3,587, 1,510, 3,120, and 320 respectively [2] - **Price Spreads**: The current price spreads of "January - March", "March - May", "May - July", "July - September", "September - November", and "November - January" are 4,295, - 680, - 1,050, - 1,270, - 425, and - 870 respectively, compared with the previous values of 3,815, - 490, - 1,060, - 1,295, - 230, and - 740 [2] Group 4: Summary of Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning are 9.88, 9.76, 9.52, 10.03, 9.39, and 9.48 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 0.14, - 19.63, - 0.35, - 0.14, - 0.25, and - 0.18 compared with the previous values [2] Group 5: Summary of Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts was 1,051 on the previous day, with no change compared with two days ago [2] Group 6: Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The output of key breeding enterprises increased by 5.13% compared with the previous day, and the average weight of slaughtered pigs was stable. The slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly by 0.07% [3] - **Demand**: The market demand has limited growth, and the enthusiasm for second - fattening and frozen product warehousing is average [3] - **Profit Situation**: Currently, the breeding side is generally in deep losses, with an average loss of 310.26 yuan per self - bred and self - raised pig [3]
申万期货品种策略日报-生猪(LH)-20260323
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall pig price in China is stable with a slight downward trend. The prices in the northern market have been slightly adjusted downwards over the weekend, and the terminal consumption is weak with limited demand growth. Although some large-scale farms have reduced their slaughter volume, the overall supply of pigs in the market is sufficient, providing insufficient support for prices. The southern market is also running weakly and stable, with active slaughter by farmers, a loose supply, and weak sales feedback from slaughtering enterprises. The current supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly, and the market lacks the impetus for continuous growth. It is expected that the pig prices in both the north and the south will be subject to narrow - range adjustments in the short term. The abundant supply of pigs and weak terminal consumption remain the main factors restricting the market [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The previous day's closing prices for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 13,545, 9,730, 10,220, 11,280, 12,575, and 12,805 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, the price changes were 140, 130, - 115, - 90, 75, and 95, with corresponding percentage changes of 1.04%, 1.35%, - 1.11%, - 0.79%, 0.60%, and 0.75% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 5,846, 0, 148,035, 39,134, 24,315, and 7,693 respectively. The open interests were 21,949, 42, 203,669, 74,575, 66,889, and 41,452 respectively, with changes of 1,149, - 13, 3,858, 2,375, 1,994, and 1,164 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current spreads for January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January were 3,815, - 490, - 1,060, - 1,295, - 230, and - 740 respectively, compared with the previous values of 3,805, - 735, - 1,035, - 1,130, - 210, and - 695 [2]. Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 10.02, 9.87, 9.87, 10.17, 9.64, and 9.66 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, the price changes were 0, - 19.78, - 0.13, - 0.37, - 0.12, and - 0.08 [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts was 1,051 on the previous day, the same as two days ago, with no change [2].
申万期货品种策略日报-生猪(LH)-20260303
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current market situation of the pig industry is characterized by a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The average ex - factory price of live pigs has declined, the losses of the breeding end have expanded, and it is expected that the pig price will maintain a weak operation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms, slaughterhouse warehousing, and the consumption drive during the back - to - school season [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of futures contracts for January, March, May, July, September, and November were 13380, 10100, 11220, 12350, 13300, and 13255 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, they decreased by - 125 (- 0.93%), - 530 (- 4.99%), - 265 (- 2.31%), - 160 (- 1.28%), - 195 (- 1.44%), and - 210 (- 1.56%) respectively [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 1364, 607, 97976, 15819, 14589, and 5911 respectively, and the open interests were 5248, 257, 165149, 54556, 46630, and 28685 respectively. The changes in open interest were 68, - 556, 9894, - 97, 858, and 1022 respectively [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current price spreads of 1 - 3 months, 3 - 5 months, 5 - 7 months, 7 - 9 months, 9 - 11 months, and 11 - 1 month were 3280, - 1120, - 1130, - 950, 45, and - 125 respectively, compared with the previous values of 2875, - 855, - 1025, - 985, 30, and - 40 respectively [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 10.79, 10.27, 10.59, 11.23, 10.57, and 10.16 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, they decreased by - 0.34, - 21.03, - 0.19, - 0.02, - 0.2, and - 0.41 respectively [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 1156 on the previous day, with no change compared with two days ago [2]. Market Situation and Outlook - **Industry Data**: The national average ex - factory price of live pigs was 10.47 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/kg compared with the previous day. The lowest price was 9.88 yuan/kg in Heilongjiang, and the highest price was 11.28 yuan/kg in Guangdong. The price difference between standard and fat pigs was 0.83 yuan/kg. The slaughter volume of the breeding end increased by 5.64% month - on - month, and the average slaughter weight remained stable. The slaughter rate of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly, and the slaughter volume increased by 1.40% month - on - month. The daily losses of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets for breeding expanded to 185.14 yuan/head and 108.71 yuan/head respectively [3]. - **Outlook**: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the market remains unchanged. The return of people in the south has limited support, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened. It is expected that the pig price will maintain a weak operation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms, slaughterhouse warehousing, and the consumption drive during the back - to - school season [3].
申万期货品种策略日报-生猪(LH)-20260227
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic hog market is in a stalemate. The average price of ternary hogs in the country is stable at 10.77 yuan/kg. The prices in major producing areas such as Henan have slightly increased, but the high - price areas like Guangdong remain unchanged, indicating a lack of unified upward momentum. The supply is relatively sufficient as the slaughter volume in most regions is stable or increasing, and the procurement of slaughtering enterprises is smooth. The demand is weak, with limited fresh sales boost and low willingness for frozen product warehousing. The market is in a weak supply - demand balance, and it is expected that the national hog price will continue to have narrow - range adjustments in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary of Futures Market - **Price and Change**: The previous day's closing prices of hog futures for January, March, May, July, September, and November were 13390, 10120, 11395, 12360, 13330, and 13280 respectively. The price changes were 50, - 275, - 70, 15, 20, and 15, with corresponding price change rates of 0.37%, - 2.65%, - 0.61%, 0.12%, 0.15%, and 0.11% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 1171, 15271, 54028, 9060, 6867, and 1941 respectively, and the open interests were 4210, 16629, 154348, 53361, 43162, and 26056 respectively. The changes in open interest were 396, - 8167, - 119, 553, 1294, and 344 [2] - **Price Spreads**: The current price spreads of January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January were 3270, - 1275, - 965, - 970, 50, and - 110 respectively, compared with the previous values of 2945, - 1070, - 880, - 965, 45, and - 75 [2] Group 4: Summary of Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 11.06, 10.76, 10.75, 11.21, 10.6, and 10.52 yuan/ton respectively. The price changes were 0.07, - 21.63, - 0.02, 0, 0.08, and 0.07 [2] Group 5: Summary of Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts was 1156 on the previous day and the day before, with no change [2]
申万期货品种策略日报-生猪(LH)-20260213
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The futures main contract LH2605 slightly declined by 0.13% to 11,540 yuan/ton. The average price of national outer ternary live pigs was reported at 11.52 yuan/kg, slightly up 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day. The market shows a regional differentiation pattern. The market at the slaughter end features "contraction in the north and stability in the south". As the Spring Festival approaches, pre - festival stocking is coming to an end. The market supply and demand both tend to weaken, with the north entering the pre - festival quiet period earlier than the south. Short - term pig prices may show a narrow - range fluctuation supported by sentiment and local stocking, but the overall upside space is limited. Attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter sentiment of the breeding end and the post - festival consumption recovery rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Fluctuation**: The previous day's closing prices of futures contracts in January, March, May, July, September, and November were 13,280, 10,895, 11,540, 12,230, 13,180, and 13,160 respectively. The price changes were - 5, 50, - 15, - 30, - 30, and 10, with corresponding percentage changes of - 0.04%, 0.46%, - 0.13%, - 0.24%, - 0.23%, and 0.08% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 174, 23,297, 43,604, 4,822, 2,624, and 1,144 respectively. The open interests were 2,695, 35,155, 141,128, 49,769, 37,465, and 23,918 respectively, with changes of 33, - 11,104, - 6,442, - 428, - 268, and - 114 [2] - **Price Spreads**: The current price spreads of "January - March", "March - May", "May - July", "July - September", "September - November", and "November - January" were 2,385, - 645, - 690, - 950, 20, and - 120 respectively, compared with the previous values of 2,440, - 710, - 705, - 950, 60, and - 135 [2] Spot Market - **Price and Fluctuation**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 12.18, 10.8, 11.23, 11.47, 11.54, and 11.5 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0.24, - 21.6, 0.02, 0, 0.07, and - 0.1 compared with the previous values [2] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts the day before the previous day was 727, and the number the previous day was 1027, with an increase of 300 [2]
申万期货品种策略日报-生猪(LH)-20260206
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The pig market continues its weak oscillation with significant regional differentiation. The average price of ternary pigs in the country is reported at 12.00 yuan/kg, slightly down 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous day. The market has entered a "price decline - reluctance to sell" game phase, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the festival. Attention should be paid to the changes in the selling mentality of secondary fattening farmers after the stabilization in the north [3] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market - **Previous Day Closing Price**: For January, it's 13325; March, 10995; May, 11685; July, 12245; September, 13135; November, 13030 [2] - **Two - day Ago Closing Price**: January, 13355; March, 11150; May, 11735; July, 12295; September, 13210; November, 13130 [2] - **Price Changes**: January, -30; March, -155; May, -50; July, -50; September, -75; November, -100 [2] - **Price Change Ratios**: January, -0.22%; March, -1.39%; May, -0.43%; July, -0.41%; September, -0.57%; November, -0.76% [2] - **Trading Volume**: January, 202; March, 36874; May, 68397; July, 7962; September, 6735; November, 2978 [2] - **Open Interest**: January, 1796; March, 74864; May, 144469; July, 50256; September, 37175; November, 23065 [2] - **Change in Open Interest**: January, 13; March, -8977; May, -1506; July, -199; September, 109; November, 855 [2] - **Price Spreads**: 1 - 3 months, 2330; 3 - 5 months, -690; 5 - 7 months, -560; 7 - 9 months, -890; 9 - 11 months, 105; 11 - 1 month, -295 [2] - **Previous Price Spreads**: 1 - 3 months, 2205; 3 - 5 months, -585; 5 - 7 months, -560; 7 - 9 months, -915; 9 - 11 months, 80; 11 - 1 month, -225 [2] Spot Market - **Spot Prices (Yuan/ton)**: Henan, 12.36; Sichuan, 11.54; Hunan, 11.88; Guangdong, 11.9; Guangxi, 11.84; Liaoning, 12.14 [2] - **Previous Spot Prices (Yuan/ton)**: Henan, 12.22; Sichuan, 11.77; Hunan, 12.1; Guangdong, 12.15; Guangxi, 12.1; Liaoning, 12.23 [2] - **Price Changes**: Henan, 0.14; Sichuan, -23.31; Hunan, -0.22; Guangdong, -0.25; Guangxi, -0.26; Liaoning, -0.09 [2] Warehouse Receipts - **Quantity**: 647, with no change from the previous two days [2]
申万期货品种策略日报-生猪(LH)-20260127
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The order volume of slaughtering enterprises has decreased, so overall procurement is not very difficult. It is expected that the pig price in the market tomorrow may remain stable, and it cannot be ruled out that the prices in some regions will still be weak, with actual transactions being the main reference. Recently, most farms have a normal slaughter rhythm, and some enterprises are slightly faster in increasing their output. One reason is to catch up with the plan due to the slow rhythm in the earlier stage, and the other is to relieve the later supply pressure. Overall, the recent surge in spot prices has stimulated some pig farms to accelerate their slaughter, and the possibility of the Spring Festival market exceeding expectations is relatively low [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - **Prices**: The previous day's closing prices for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 11,810, 11,465, 11,760, 12,425, 13,365, and 13,335 respectively, with price drops of -190, -100, -90, -45, -25, and -25, and percentage drops of -1.58%, -0.86%, -0.76%, -0.36%, -0.19%, and -0.19% respectively compared to the day before [2]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 15, 53,652, 30,669, 4,880, 3,970, and 1,175 respectively [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interests for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 17, 133,394, 113,899, 46,200, 34,299, and 17,856 respectively, with changes of -17, 1,981, 5,555, 464, 248, and 27 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: The current spreads for January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January were 345, -295, -665, -940, 30, and 1,525 respectively, compared to previous values of 435, -285, -620, -920, 30, and 1,360 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 13.24, 12.77, 12.76, 13.23, 12.47, and 12.91 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0.04, -25.48, 0.17, 0.03, 0.27, and -0.14 compared to the previous day [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts was 433 both the previous day and the day before, with no change [2].