Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The view is that the pig price will have an oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to abundant supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and seasonally, this difference is expected to continue to strengthen, weakening the willingness of retail farmers to reduce pig weight and providing some support for pig prices; if farmers continue to reduce pig weight or keep the weight stable, the pig price may have an oscillatory adjustment, which is somewhat beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On August 18, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 430 lots [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for the spot price to continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs [2]. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) increased its positions by 6,351 lots today, with a position of about 71,200 lots. The highest price today was 13,975 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,750 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,820 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase oscillatingly in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. On the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatingly [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure, expected continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support of demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes that current weight reduction is beneficial for the future, strong resilience of the spot price indicating that supply - demand is not as loose as the short - side thinks, and although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter volume, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for live pigs [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is as described above, and it is recommended to wait and see for the 11 - contract considering its slight premium over the spot price [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On August 18, the national live pig slaughter price was 13.64 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan or 0.22% from August 15. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan remained unchanged [6]. - Among futures prices, the prices of all contracts decreased compared with August 15, with the decline ranging from 0.38% to 1.34% [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan decreased by 5 yuan or 3.7% compared with August 15 [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the pig prices will experience a period of volatile adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to be abundant, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen, providing some support to pig prices. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or maintain a stable weight, pig prices may show a weakening trend. For the 09 contract, which has a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 28, the registered pig futures warehouse receipts were 284 lots. The short - term decline of spot prices is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the weight of pigs will continue to decrease. The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 881 lots today, with a position of about 61,400 lots. The highest price was 14,410 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,995 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,125 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the breeding sow inventory, the supply of pigs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the pig slaughter volume will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen. The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the farming sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong spot price resilience, and the limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume along with the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is volatile adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the pig slaughter volume may increase month - by - month until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the weight - reduction willingness of individual farmers and support pig prices. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or maintain a stable weight, pig prices may show a weakening trend. For the 09 contract with a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but attention should be paid to the impact of macro - sentiment on commodities [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On July 28, compared with July 25, the futures prices of all contracts decreased. The 01 contract decreased by 120 yuan/ton (- 0.82%), the 03 contract decreased by 185 yuan/ton (- 1.34%), the 05 contract decreased by 155 yuan/ton (- 1.09%), the 07 contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton (- 0.07%), the 09 contract decreased by 260 yuan/ton (- 1.81%), and the 11 contract decreased by 135 yuan/ton (- 0.94%) [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on national pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volume, futures contract closing prices in the past 180 days, the basis of the main pig contract in Henan, the price difference between 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [11][12].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 15, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Pig Futures Daily Report - Author: Shi Xiangying [5] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall view is that the pig futures market will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment [4] - From the data of sows and piglets, the pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply [4] - The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which is expected to continue strengthening seasonally, weakening the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight and providing some support for pig prices [4] - The 2509 contract is basically at parity with the spot price, and the short - term fluctuations in pig prices are limited. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] Content Summary by Section Market Dynamics - On July 14, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 444 lots [2] - In the short term, there is limited room for further decline in spot prices. In the medium term, the fundamental contradictions in the pig market are not significant, and the LH2509 contract is oscillating and adjusting [2] - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 2,852 lots today, with a position of approximately 69,400 lots. The highest price was 14,305 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,185 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,285 yuan/ton [2] Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. In terms of the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3] - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may oscillate and strengthen [3] - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding sector, incomplete release of supply pressure, expected continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption seasons. The long - side logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the gradual entry into the peak consumption season for live pigs in the third and fourth quarters [3] Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4] - The core logic is that the pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December based on sow and piglet data, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue strengthening, which will weaken the weight - reduction willingness of individual farmers and support pig prices; the 2509 contract is basically at parity with the spot price, and short - term price fluctuations are limited, so it is recommended to wait and see [4] Market Overview - On July 14, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.61 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg or 0.54% compared to July 11. The prices in Henan and Sichuan also decreased [6] - Among the futures contracts, the prices of the 01, 03, 07 contracts increased, while the prices of the 05, 09, 11 contracts decreased. The main contract (LH2509) closed at 14,285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton or 0.42% compared to July 11 [6] - The main basis in Henan decreased by 90 yuan/ton or 19.78% compared to July 11 [6] Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main contract in Henan, the price differences between the 09 - 11 contracts and the 11 - 01 contracts [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests that the pig price will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to be abundant until December, which will limit significant price increases. However, the demand side also provides some support, preventing a significant price drop. Therefore, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 9, the registered warehouse receipts for live pigs were 447 lots [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for further decline in the spot price. The LH2509 contract is undergoing oscillatory adjustment [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 1,328 lots today, with a holding of approximately 70,000 lots. The highest price was 14,270 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,175 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,265 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Based on the data of sows and piglets, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase will be limited. The overall slaughter volume of live pigs will increase oscillatingly in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - From a historical perspective and the current fundamentals, the spread between fat and standard pigs may undergo oscillatory adjustment [3]. - Market bearish and bullish logics: - Bearish: Slow weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices in the second and third quarters [3]. - Bullish: There is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the gradual approach of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - Viewpoint: Oscillatory adjustment [4]. - Core logic: - Based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under abundant supply [4]. - The recent performance of the live pig spot market shows a positive relationship between "weight reduction - stable pig prices", indicating that the demand side also provides some support for pig prices. The spread between 150 - kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, weakening the willingness of retail farmers to reduce weight and providing some support for pig prices [4]. - The 2509 contract is almost at par with the price trough, and the short - term fluctuations in pig prices are limited. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3.4 Market Quotes Overview - National average live pig slaughter price on July 9 was 14.89 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 15.07 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg (-0.53%) from the previous day; in Sichuan, it was 14.44 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg (0.21%) from the previous day [6]. - Futures prices of various contracts generally declined on July 9 compared to the previous day, with the decline ranging from -0.07% to -0.62% [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan was 805 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton (-8%) from the previous day [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of the pig market is weak with fluctuations. The supply of pigs in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices. The demand in the second and third quarters provides weak support for pig prices, and it is difficult to support a significant increase. If there is a concentrated and substantial weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may hit new lows. However, the 09 contract price is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Dynamics - On June 12, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 750 lots. The LH2507 contract is mainly focused on spot-futures convergence and delivery games, while the far-month contracts are fluctuating weakly due to the decline in spot prices and the expected increase in subsequent slaughter volume. The main contract (LH2509) added 2,093 lots today, with a position of approximately 79,500 lots, a maximum price of 13,770 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,540 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,750 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month by month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, the first half of the year is the off-season, while the second half is the peak season. Historically and currently, the fat-to-standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust. The bearish logic in the market includes slow weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices in the second and third quarters. The bullish logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, and the limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume along with the approaching peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3. Strategy Suggestions - The view is weak with fluctuations. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices. The demand in the second and third quarters provides weak support for pig prices. If there is a concentrated and substantial weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may hit new lows. Although there is a possibility of new lows in spot prices, the uncertainty is high, and the current weight reduction is actually beneficial to the 09 contract. Therefore, the price of the 09 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 4. Market Overview - On June 12, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.01 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg or 0.07% from the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 14.07 yuan/kg and 13.91 yuan/kg respectively, with Henan decreasing by 0.05 yuan/kg or 0.35% and Sichuan remaining unchanged. Among the futures contracts, the prices of the 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, and 11 contracts were 13,610 yuan/ton, 12,770 yuan/ton, 12,990 yuan/ton, 13,220 yuan/ton, 13,750 yuan/ton, and 13,390 yuan/ton respectively, with the 09 contract increasing by 150 yuan/ton or 1.1%. The main basis in Henan was 320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton or 38.46% from the previous day [6]. 5. Key Data Tracking - Data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts are provided, with the data source being Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].