投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ni 期货研究报告 宝城期货金融研究所 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 高供应 弱需求下 甲醇涨势乏力 核心观点 2026 年 2 月末，随着美伊军事对抗风险急剧升级，伊朗方面宣 布关闭霍尔木兹海峡这一全球能源与化工品运输的"咽喉要道"， 市场对中东甲醇外运受阻的担忧迅速升温。霍尔木兹海峡承载着全 球 35%的甲醇海运贸易量，海峡关闭不仅意味着伊朗甲醇装船出口 陷入停滞，沙特、阿曼等中东主要甲醇出口国的外运通道也同步受 阻，叠加伊朗甲醇装置本就因冬季限气开工率偏低，冲突进一步打 断了复产节奏，市场对未来 1-2 个月国内甲醇进口到货大幅缩减的 预期持续强化。 甲醇-MA 受地缘风险影响，本周以来，国内甲醇市场迎来一波强势上行， 期现价格同步上涨，主力合约连续冲高，现货市场报价也出现大幅 抬升，地缘政治冲突成为本轮行情的核心推手。短期来看，经历短 期价格持续上涨以后，地缘风险溢价已然在甲醇期货上得到兑现。 当前我国甲醇产能持续增长，下游传统 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic coal-to-methanol production profits have been substantial in 2025, leading to a continuous release of methanol capacity despite the annual maintenance period, resulting in high production levels and weak futures prices for methanol [1][2][5]. Group 1: Production and Profitability - Since January 2025, the production profits for coal-to-methanol in China have remained robust, with cost-profit margins generally between 3% and 9%, encouraging companies to increase production capacity [2]. - By the end of March 2025, the cost-profit margins for coal-to-methanol in various regions were reported as follows: Northwest at approximately 6.5%, Shandong at around 10%, and Inner Mongolia at about 13.8%, indicating a slight month-on-month increase [2]. - The production capacity for coal-to-methanol is expected to continue to be released, maintaining supply pressure due to high profit margins [2][4]. Group 2: Seasonal Maintenance and Production Levels - In March 2025, the annual spring maintenance peak for methanol production was observed, with production load decreasing slightly but remaining at high levels, with a weekly average operating rate of 75.64% [3]. - The weekly methanol production averaged 1.8269 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of over 110,000 tons despite a slight month-on-month decrease [3]. - Domestic methanol inventory decreased to 327,800 tons by March 27, 2025, reflecting a significant reduction compared to previous months and last year [3]. Group 3: Downstream Demand - In March 2025, there were minor improvements in downstream demand for methanol, but the extent of improvement was less than in previous years, with formal demand sectors showing mixed results [5]. - The operating rate for formaldehyde enterprises was 25.73%, while acetic acid saw a significant increase to 93.05% due to favorable profit margins [5]. - Overall, the downstream demand for methanol remains weak, with most sectors experiencing low operating rates, leading to limited improvements in consumption [5].