Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View The report suggests that the methanol 2505 contract is expected to show a moderately bullish trend in the short - term (intraday) and a moderately bearish trend in the medium - term. Overall, it is likely to be on a moderately bullish run. The main driver is that the US government has released positive signals, cooling down the global tariff war and boosting the risk appetite of the global financial market, giving confidence to the bulls and causing commodity futures prices to stabilize and rebound [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Market Performance - The domestic methanol futures 2505 contract closed slightly lower by 0.29% at 2389 yuan/ton in the overnight session last Friday [5]. Market Outlook - Short - term (intraday) view of methanol: moderately bullish [1][5]. - Medium - term view of methanol: moderately bearish [1][5]. - Overall reference view: moderately bullish run [1][5]. Driving Logic - Trump announced a 90 - day tariff suspension for countries that do not take retaliatory actions and exempted some Chinese goods from import tariffs. The positive signals from the US government cooled down the global tariff war, boosting the risk appetite of the global financial market and giving confidence to the bulls, leading to the stabilization and rebound of commodity futures prices [5].

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View The report focuses on the methanol futures market. It indicates that the short - term (intraday) view is that the methanol futures will be oscillating strongly, while the medium - term view is that it will be oscillating weakly. The overall reference view is a strong - side operation. The main reason is that due to the tariff war between China and the US, the external stock and commodity futures markets declined significantly. After Trump announced a 90 - day tariff suspension for non - retaliating countries, commodity futures prices stopped falling and rebounded. The methanol futures 2505 contract had an oversold rebound on the previous day and maintained an oscillatingly strong trend in the night session on Thursday, with the price slightly rising by 0.17% to 2397 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatingly strong trend on Friday [5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - The methanol futures 2505 contract maintained an oscillatingly strong trend in the night session on Thursday, with the price slightly rising by 0.17% to 2397 yuan/ton [5]. Market - driving Logic - The continuous fermentation of the tariff war between China and the US led to a sharp decline in the external stock and commodity futures markets to digest negative risks. Trump's announcement of a 90 - day tariff suspension for non - retaliating countries was a positive factor, causing commodity futures prices to stop falling and rebound, including the methanol futures 2505 contract [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report Core Viewpoints - The methanol 2505 contract is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Wednesday, with a bearish sentiment prevailing and a weak operation [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price Performance - The domestic methanol futures 2505 contract showed limited upward momentum on Tuesday night, closing slightly lower by 0.33% at 2,381 yuan/ton [5] Market Outlook - Short - term view: The methanol 2505 contract is in a downward trend [1] - Medium - term view: The methanol 2505 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [1][5] - Intraday view: The methanol 2505 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [5] Driving Logic - Seasonal maintenance is favorable for methanol, but the strength is weaker compared to the same period in previous years. The spring maintenance scale has been shrinking in recent years, and it is expected to drop to 5 million tons this year [5] - The global economy may face a recession due to high - tariff measures initiated by the United States, which may intensify international trade disputes. During the Tomb - sweeping Festival holiday, China's counter - tariff measures against the US led to a significant decline in the prices of overseas stock markets, crude oil, natural gas, and other commodities. The threat of an additional 50% tariff on China by the US has intensified the expectation of an escalation of the trade war [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol futures contract 2505 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend this week. Seasonal maintenance has a positive effect on methanol, but the scale is weaker than in previous years, and it is expected to drop to 5 million tons this year. The US's high - tariff policy may lead to intensified international trade disputes and global economic recession. After China's counter - tariff measures during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the prices of overseas stock markets, crude oil, natural gas and other commodities have fallen sharply. Although the night - session futures price rebounded slightly by 0.76% to 2400 yuan/ton, the rebound space is limited [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol 2505 Performance - In the short - term, it is in a downward state; in the medium - term and intraday, it shows a weak and volatile trend, with a general view of weak operation. The core logic is that the bearish atmosphere dominates [1]. 3.2 Price Calculation Basis - For varieties with night - trading sessions, the starting price is the night - session closing price; for varieties without night - trading sessions, the starting price is the previous day's closing price. The end price is the day - session closing price of the current day, and then the price change is calculated [2]. 3.3 Price Change Definition - A decline of more than 1% is considered a decline; a decline of 0 - 1% is a weak and volatile state; an increase of 0 - 1% is a strong and volatile state; an increase of more than 1% is considered an increase. The strong/weak and volatile situation is only for the intraday view, and there is no such distinction for the short - term and medium - term [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic coal-to-methanol production profits have been substantial in 2025, leading to a continuous release of methanol capacity despite the annual maintenance period, resulting in high production levels and weak futures prices for methanol [1][2][5]. Group 1: Production and Profitability - Since January 2025, the production profits for coal-to-methanol in China have remained robust, with cost-profit margins generally between 3% and 9%, encouraging companies to increase production capacity [2]. - By the end of March 2025, the cost-profit margins for coal-to-methanol in various regions were reported as follows: Northwest at approximately 6.5%, Shandong at around 10%, and Inner Mongolia at about 13.8%, indicating a slight month-on-month increase [2]. - The production capacity for coal-to-methanol is expected to continue to be released, maintaining supply pressure due to high profit margins [2][4]. Group 2: Seasonal Maintenance and Production Levels - In March 2025, the annual spring maintenance peak for methanol production was observed, with production load decreasing slightly but remaining at high levels, with a weekly average operating rate of 75.64% [3]. - The weekly methanol production averaged 1.8269 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of over 110,000 tons despite a slight month-on-month decrease [3]. - Domestic methanol inventory decreased to 327,800 tons by March 27, 2025, reflecting a significant reduction compared to previous months and last year [3]. Group 3: Downstream Demand - In March 2025, there were minor improvements in downstream demand for methanol, but the extent of improvement was less than in previous years, with formal demand sectors showing mixed results [5]. - The operating rate for formaldehyde enterprises was 25.73%, while acetic acid saw a significant increase to 93.05% due to favorable profit margins [5]. - Overall, the downstream demand for methanol remains weak, with most sectors experiencing low operating rates, leading to limited improvements in consumption [5].