投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-04-14 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 甲醇 2505 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强运行 | 宏观情绪缓和，甲醇震荡偏强 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 偏弱 | 日内 偏强 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 晨会纪要 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】177 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-04-11 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期美国总统特朗普在白宫签署两项关于所谓"对等关税"的行政令，随着关税战事件 不断发酵，中美两国继续互相加征关税。外盘股市商品期货市场大幅下跌消化利空风险。随着特朗 普宣布已授权对不采取报复行动的国家实施 90 天的关税暂停。利多消息一出，大宗商品期货价格纷 纷止跌反弹，甲醇期货 2505 合约也在昨日展开超跌反弹行情。本周四夜盘国内甲醇期货 2505 合约 维持震荡偏强的走势，期价略微收涨 0.17%至 2397 元/吨。在 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-04-09 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 甲醇 2505 | 下跌 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空氛围占优，甲醇偏弱运行 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：季节性检修利多甲醇，但力度较往年同期弱。近年春检规模持续萎缩，预计今年规模降 至 500 万吨。由于美国发起高额关税，或引发国际贸易争端加剧，全球经济衰退。清明小长假期间， 中国发起对美关 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol futures contract 2505 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend this week. Seasonal maintenance has a positive effect on methanol, but the scale is weaker than in previous years, and it is expected to drop to 5 million tons this year. The US's high - tariff policy may lead to intensified international trade disputes and global economic recession. After China's counter - tariff measures during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the prices of overseas stock markets, crude oil, natural gas and other commodities have fallen sharply. Although the night - session futures price rebounded slightly by 0.76% to 2400 yuan/ton, the rebound space is limited [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol 2505 Performance - In the short - term, it is in a downward state; in the medium - term and intraday, it shows a weak and volatile trend, with a general view of weak operation. The core logic is that the bearish atmosphere dominates [1]. 3.2 Price Calculation Basis - For varieties with night - trading sessions, the starting price is the night - session closing price; for varieties without night - trading sessions, the starting price is the previous day's closing price. The end price is the day - session closing price of the current day, and then the price change is calculated [2]. 3.3 Price Change Definition - A decline of more than 1% is considered a decline; a decline of 0 - 1% is a weak and volatile state; an increase of 0 - 1% is a strong and volatile state; an increase of more than 1% is considered an increase. The strong/weak and volatile situation is only for the intraday view, and there is no such distinction for the short - term and medium - term [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic coal-to-methanol production profits have been substantial in 2025, leading to a continuous release of methanol capacity despite the annual maintenance period, resulting in high production levels and weak futures prices for methanol [1][2][5]. Group 1: Production and Profitability - Since January 2025, the production profits for coal-to-methanol in China have remained robust, with cost-profit margins generally between 3% and 9%, encouraging companies to increase production capacity [2]. - By the end of March 2025, the cost-profit margins for coal-to-methanol in various regions were reported as follows: Northwest at approximately 6.5%, Shandong at around 10%, and Inner Mongolia at about 13.8%, indicating a slight month-on-month increase [2]. - The production capacity for coal-to-methanol is expected to continue to be released, maintaining supply pressure due to high profit margins [2][4]. Group 2: Seasonal Maintenance and Production Levels - In March 2025, the annual spring maintenance peak for methanol production was observed, with production load decreasing slightly but remaining at high levels, with a weekly average operating rate of 75.64% [3]. - The weekly methanol production averaged 1.8269 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of over 110,000 tons despite a slight month-on-month decrease [3]. - Domestic methanol inventory decreased to 327,800 tons by March 27, 2025, reflecting a significant reduction compared to previous months and last year [3]. Group 3: Downstream Demand - In March 2025, there were minor improvements in downstream demand for methanol, but the extent of improvement was less than in previous years, with formal demand sectors showing mixed results [5]. - The operating rate for formaldehyde enterprises was 25.73%, while acetic acid saw a significant increase to 93.05% due to favorable profit margins [5]. - Overall, the downstream demand for methanol remains weak, with most sectors experiencing low operating rates, leading to limited improvements in consumption [5].