【冠通期货研究报告】 【基本面分析】 库存数据：截至 2026 年 2 月 25 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 144.67 万吨， 较上一期数据增加 1.45 万吨。其中，华东地区略有去库，库存减少 0.05 万吨； 华南地区累库，库存增加 1.50 万吨。本期甲醇港口库存较节前窄幅积累，虽周 期内外轮卸货速度较为一般（两周显性卸入 24.24 万吨），但假期提货受限同步 影响消耗。江苏沿江部分库区有船发支撑提货，但汽运提货寡淡，外轮供应下库 存积累；浙江下游表现持稳，卸船不多导致库存下降。本周华南港口库存小幅累 库。广东地区周期内进口及内贸船货均有抵港，受假期影响主流库区提货量明显 减少，库存呈现累库。福建地区无船货补充，下游开工降低导致消耗速度放缓， 提货表现一般，库存窄幅去库。 【宏观面分析】 1、2 月 25 日，上海市住房城乡建设管理委、市房屋管理局、市财政局、市 税务局、市公积金管理中心等五部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产 政策的通知》，自 2026 年 2 月 26 日起施行：符合条件非沪籍居民可在外环内增 购 1 套住房。 2、中共中央政治局：持续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the port methanol market strengthened, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2070 - 2190 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2050 - 2130 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market was weak, with prices in the main production area of Ordos North Line ranging from 1950 - 1973 yuan/ton. The downstream Dongying receiving price was between 2225 - 2230 yuan/ton [1]. - Methanol enterprises' overall profits are poor. The domestic methanol start - up is expected to remain high. With the seasonal gas restriction in the Middle East, the on - the - way cargo volume in Iran is still abundant, and imports in December are likely to remain at a high level [1]. - This week, the faulty downstream glacial acetic acid units are expected to resume normal operation, with an expected increase in capacity utilization. The weekly average start - up of methanol - to - olefins is expected to rise, and the overall downstream demand for methanol is expected to pick up [1]. - The methanol port inventory is at a high level, and the import volume is expected to increase in the near future. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 05 contract at the 2220 level [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Port methanol market strengthened last week due to slow port unloading, inventory reduction, and some holders' low - price selling reluctance. Inland market was weak because of seasonal freight increase and high downstream raw material inventory [1]. - In the future, methanol prices are expected to fluctuate, with the 05 contract facing upper pressure at 2220 [1]. 3.2 Factors to Watch - Methanol start - up changes and methanol port inventory changes [2] 3.3 Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - The basis (Jiangsu) decreased by 62.75% week - on - week to 9.5 yuan/ton. The inland methanol sample enterprise inventory increased by 8.01% to 39.11 tons. The port methanol inventory decreased by 1.26% to 121.88 tons. The weekly output increased by 0.79% to 205.59 tons [3]. - The profit of Inner Mongolia coal - to - methanol increased by 14.1% to - 135.8 yuan/ton. The profit of North China coke - oven gas - to - methanol decreased by 10.58% to 169 yuan/ton. The profit of Southwest natural gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 320 yuan/ton [3]. - The downstream acetic acid start - up rate increased by 3.55% to 76.51%, while the downstream methanol - to - olefins start - up rate decreased by 1.34% to 88.99% [3]. 3.4 Periodic and Spot Market Review - Last week, the port methanol market was range - bound, with prices in Jiangsu fluctuating from 2060 - 2120 yuan/ton [7]. 3.5 Supply Situation Analysis - As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese methanol plants was 90.52%, a 0.81% increase from the previous period [8]. - The weekly average profit of Inner Mongolia coal - to - methanol (based on full cost) was - 135.80 yuan/ton, a 14.10% increase from the previous period. Based on cash - flow cost, the profit increased by 9.22% [8]. - The weekly average profit of Hebei coke - oven gas - to - methanol was 169.00 yuan/ton, a 10.58% decrease from the previous week. The weekly average profit of Southwest natural gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 320.00 yuan/ton [8]. 3.6 Demand Situation Analysis - As of December 18, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 70.10%, a 7.44 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. Most plants maintained their previous loads this week [10]. - The overall capacity utilization rate of downstream glacial acetic acid increased, although there were still frequent faults. Some plants had short - term outages, while some were not operating at full capacity [10]. 3.7 Inventory Analysis - As of December 17, the total sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 121.88 tons, a 1.56 - ton decrease from the previous period and a 13.8% increase compared to the same period last year [12]. 3.8 Position Analysis - As of December 19, the long - position volume of the top 20 members in methanol futures was 799,442, a decrease of 22,337. The short - position volume was 935,039, a decrease of 8,706. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [15].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic coal-to-methanol production profits have been substantial in 2025, leading to a continuous release of methanol capacity despite the annual maintenance period, resulting in high production levels and weak futures prices for methanol [1][2][5]. Group 1: Production and Profitability - Since January 2025, the production profits for coal-to-methanol in China have remained robust, with cost-profit margins generally between 3% and 9%, encouraging companies to increase production capacity [2]. - By the end of March 2025, the cost-profit margins for coal-to-methanol in various regions were reported as follows: Northwest at approximately 6.5%, Shandong at around 10%, and Inner Mongolia at about 13.8%, indicating a slight month-on-month increase [2]. - The production capacity for coal-to-methanol is expected to continue to be released, maintaining supply pressure due to high profit margins [2][4]. Group 2: Seasonal Maintenance and Production Levels - In March 2025, the annual spring maintenance peak for methanol production was observed, with production load decreasing slightly but remaining at high levels, with a weekly average operating rate of 75.64% [3]. - The weekly methanol production averaged 1.8269 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of over 110,000 tons despite a slight month-on-month decrease [3]. - Domestic methanol inventory decreased to 327,800 tons by March 27, 2025, reflecting a significant reduction compared to previous months and last year [3]. Group 3: Downstream Demand - In March 2025, there were minor improvements in downstream demand for methanol, but the extent of improvement was less than in previous years, with formal demand sectors showing mixed results [5]. - The operating rate for formaldehyde enterprises was 25.73%, while acetic acid saw a significant increase to 93.05% due to favorable profit margins [5]. - Overall, the downstream demand for methanol remains weak, with most sectors experiencing low operating rates, leading to limited improvements in consumption [5].