Group 1: Core View - The short - term sentiment of methanol is weakening due to increased production capacity during the holiday, and there is a possibility of further decline. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday downstream start - up situation, especially the recovery progress of downstream demand during the "Golden March and Silver April" [5] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - As of February 25, 2026, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1.4467 billion tons, an increase of 14,500 tons compared with the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased slightly by 500 tons, while that in South China increased by 15,000 tons. The inventory of methanol ports has increased slightly compared with that before the holiday. Although the unloading speed of foreign vessels was average, the restricted pick - up during the holiday also affected consumption [2] - In Jiangsu, some storage areas along the Yangtze River had ship - supported pick - up, but truck pick - up was scarce, and inventory accumulated under foreign vessel supply. In Zhejiang, the downstream performance was stable, and the inventory decreased due to less ship unloading. In South China, the inventory increased slightly this week. In Guangdong, both imported and domestic trade cargoes arrived at the port, and the pick - up volume in the mainstream storage areas decreased significantly due to the holiday, resulting in inventory accumulation. In Fujian, there was no cargo replenishment, the downstream start - up decreased, the consumption speed slowed down, the pick - up performance was average, and the inventory decreased slightly [2] Group 3: Macroeconomic Analysis - On February 25, five departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust the real - estate policy. Eligible non - Shanghai residents can purchase an additional property within the outer ring starting from February 26, 2026 [3] - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee emphasized continuous prevention and resolution of risks in key areas, and focused on stabilizing employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations [3] - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee stated that a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy should continue to be implemented [3] Group 4: Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The price of methanol decreased by 2.37% during the day. After the Spring Festival, the price first rose and then fell. During the Spring Festival, with the increase in the load of gas - based plants, the production capacity and output of methanol reached a high level, and the short - term sentiment weakened [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the port methanol market strengthened, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2070 - 2190 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2050 - 2130 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market was weak, with prices in the main production area of Ordos North Line ranging from 1950 - 1973 yuan/ton. The downstream Dongying receiving price was between 2225 - 2230 yuan/ton [1]. - Methanol enterprises' overall profits are poor. The domestic methanol start - up is expected to remain high. With the seasonal gas restriction in the Middle East, the on - the - way cargo volume in Iran is still abundant, and imports in December are likely to remain at a high level [1]. - This week, the faulty downstream glacial acetic acid units are expected to resume normal operation, with an expected increase in capacity utilization. The weekly average start - up of methanol - to - olefins is expected to rise, and the overall downstream demand for methanol is expected to pick up [1]. - The methanol port inventory is at a high level, and the import volume is expected to increase in the near future. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 05 contract at the 2220 level [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Port methanol market strengthened last week due to slow port unloading, inventory reduction, and some holders' low - price selling reluctance. Inland market was weak because of seasonal freight increase and high downstream raw material inventory [1]. - In the future, methanol prices are expected to fluctuate, with the 05 contract facing upper pressure at 2220 [1]. 3.2 Factors to Watch - Methanol start - up changes and methanol port inventory changes [2] 3.3 Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - The basis (Jiangsu) decreased by 62.75% week - on - week to 9.5 yuan/ton. The inland methanol sample enterprise inventory increased by 8.01% to 39.11 tons. The port methanol inventory decreased by 1.26% to 121.88 tons. The weekly output increased by 0.79% to 205.59 tons [3]. - The profit of Inner Mongolia coal - to - methanol increased by 14.1% to - 135.8 yuan/ton. The profit of North China coke - oven gas - to - methanol decreased by 10.58% to 169 yuan/ton. The profit of Southwest natural gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 320 yuan/ton [3]. - The downstream acetic acid start - up rate increased by 3.55% to 76.51%, while the downstream methanol - to - olefins start - up rate decreased by 1.34% to 88.99% [3]. 3.4 Periodic and Spot Market Review - Last week, the port methanol market was range - bound, with prices in Jiangsu fluctuating from 2060 - 2120 yuan/ton [7]. 3.5 Supply Situation Analysis - As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese methanol plants was 90.52%, a 0.81% increase from the previous period [8]. - The weekly average profit of Inner Mongolia coal - to - methanol (based on full cost) was - 135.80 yuan/ton, a 14.10% increase from the previous period. Based on cash - flow cost, the profit increased by 9.22% [8]. - The weekly average profit of Hebei coke - oven gas - to - methanol was 169.00 yuan/ton, a 10.58% decrease from the previous week. The weekly average profit of Southwest natural gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 320.00 yuan/ton [8]. 3.6 Demand Situation Analysis - As of December 18, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 70.10%, a 7.44 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. Most plants maintained their previous loads this week [10]. - The overall capacity utilization rate of downstream glacial acetic acid increased, although there were still frequent faults. Some plants had short - term outages, while some were not operating at full capacity [10]. 3.7 Inventory Analysis - As of December 17, the total sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 121.88 tons, a 1.56 - ton decrease from the previous period and a 13.8% increase compared to the same period last year [12]. 3.8 Position Analysis - As of December 19, the long - position volume of the top 20 members in methanol futures was 799,442, a decrease of 22,337. The short - position volume was 935,039, a decrease of 8,706. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [15].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic coal-to-methanol production profits have been substantial in 2025, leading to a continuous release of methanol capacity despite the annual maintenance period, resulting in high production levels and weak futures prices for methanol [1][2][5]. Group 1: Production and Profitability - Since January 2025, the production profits for coal-to-methanol in China have remained robust, with cost-profit margins generally between 3% and 9%, encouraging companies to increase production capacity [2]. - By the end of March 2025, the cost-profit margins for coal-to-methanol in various regions were reported as follows: Northwest at approximately 6.5%, Shandong at around 10%, and Inner Mongolia at about 13.8%, indicating a slight month-on-month increase [2]. - The production capacity for coal-to-methanol is expected to continue to be released, maintaining supply pressure due to high profit margins [2][4]. Group 2: Seasonal Maintenance and Production Levels - In March 2025, the annual spring maintenance peak for methanol production was observed, with production load decreasing slightly but remaining at high levels, with a weekly average operating rate of 75.64% [3]. - The weekly methanol production averaged 1.8269 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of over 110,000 tons despite a slight month-on-month decrease [3]. - Domestic methanol inventory decreased to 327,800 tons by March 27, 2025, reflecting a significant reduction compared to previous months and last year [3]. Group 3: Downstream Demand - In March 2025, there were minor improvements in downstream demand for methanol, but the extent of improvement was less than in previous years, with formal demand sectors showing mixed results [5]. - The operating rate for formaldehyde enterprises was 25.73%, while acetic acid saw a significant increase to 93.05% due to favorable profit margins [5]. - Overall, the downstream demand for methanol remains weak, with most sectors experiencing low operating rates, leading to limited improvements in consumption [5].