蒯三可 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015369 kuaisanke@nzfco.com 报告导读： 展望：甲醇企业整体利润不佳，国内甲醇开工预期高位维持，中东季节性限气逐步落地，当前伊朗在途 货量仍充裕，12月进口大概率维持高位水平。本周下游冰醋酸故障装置预计恢复正常运行，预计产能利用率 有所走高，甲醇制烯烃周均开工预期上升，甲醇下游整体需求预计回升。甲醇港口库存高位，近期进口量预 期上升。预计甲醇价格近期震荡运行，05合约上方压力2220一线。 关注因素：1.甲醇开工变化；2.甲醇港口库存变化。 | 甲醇 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周环比变化率% | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基差(江苏) | 元/吨 | 9.5 | 25.5 | -16.00 | -62.75 | 周度 | | 内地甲醇样本企业库存 | 万吨 | 39.11 | 36.21 | 2.90 | 8.01 | 周度 | | 港口甲醇库存 | 万吨 | 121.88 | 123.44 | -1.56 | -1.26 | 周度 | | 周产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic coal-to-methanol production profits have been substantial in 2025, leading to a continuous release of methanol capacity despite the annual maintenance period, resulting in high production levels and weak futures prices for methanol [1][2][5]. Group 1: Production and Profitability - Since January 2025, the production profits for coal-to-methanol in China have remained robust, with cost-profit margins generally between 3% and 9%, encouraging companies to increase production capacity [2]. - By the end of March 2025, the cost-profit margins for coal-to-methanol in various regions were reported as follows: Northwest at approximately 6.5%, Shandong at around 10%, and Inner Mongolia at about 13.8%, indicating a slight month-on-month increase [2]. - The production capacity for coal-to-methanol is expected to continue to be released, maintaining supply pressure due to high profit margins [2][4]. Group 2: Seasonal Maintenance and Production Levels - In March 2025, the annual spring maintenance peak for methanol production was observed, with production load decreasing slightly but remaining at high levels, with a weekly average operating rate of 75.64% [3]. - The weekly methanol production averaged 1.8269 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of over 110,000 tons despite a slight month-on-month decrease [3]. - Domestic methanol inventory decreased to 327,800 tons by March 27, 2025, reflecting a significant reduction compared to previous months and last year [3]. Group 3: Downstream Demand - In March 2025, there were minor improvements in downstream demand for methanol, but the extent of improvement was less than in previous years, with formal demand sectors showing mixed results [5]. - The operating rate for formaldehyde enterprises was 25.73%, while acetic acid saw a significant increase to 93.05% due to favorable profit margins [5]. - Overall, the downstream demand for methanol remains weak, with most sectors experiencing low operating rates, leading to limited improvements in consumption [5].