Workflow
地缘政治冲突
icon
Search documents
集运日报:多国停发对美包裹,货量逐渐走淡,但主力合约跌幅过大,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损-20250825
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 07:06
美国7月标普全球制造业PM1初值为49.5,预期52.7,前值52.9; 7月标普全球服务业PM1初值为55.2, 预期53, 前值52.9。美国7月Markit综合 PMI初值为54.6,创2024年12月以来新高,好于预期的52.8,前值为52.9。 2025年8月25日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 多国停发对美包裹,货量逐渐走淡,但主力合约跌幅过大,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损。 | 1 | | --- | | 1 1 | | 1 | | 1 | | œ | | 1 | | 11 | | 三个 | | 1 | | 15 1 | | F 20 of Real Property 9 o 1 | | 8月18日 | 8月22日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 2180.17点,较上期下跌2.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 1035.79点, 较上期下跌1.59% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1106.29点, 较上期上涨2.2% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1083 ...
集运日报:中东局势反复,现价维持下跌,助长空头情绪,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损。-20250822
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 05:48
Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports [1][2][3] Core Views - Due to the repeated Middle - East situation, current prices are falling, increasing short - selling sentiment. With large recent fluctuations, it's not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [1] - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the trading is difficult, so it's advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [3] - In the short - term, the main contract is weak while far - month contracts are stronger. Risk - takers can try to go long lightly at around 1300 for the 2510 contract and around 1750 for the 2512 contract. Keep an eye on the subsequent market trend and don't hold losing positions, setting stop - losses [3] - For the arbitrage strategy, given the volatile international situation, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see or try with light positions [3] - In the long - term, it's suggested to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3] Summary by Related Information Shipping Industry - **Container Freight Indexes**: On August 15 - 18, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 2180.17 points, down 2.5%; the NCFI (European route) was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1106.29 points, up 2.2%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1042.91 points, down 5.9%. On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%; the SCFI European route price was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%; the CCFI (European route) was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%; the SCFI US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%; the CCFI (US West route) was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1] Economic Data - **Eurozone**: In July, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8 (expected 49.7, previous 49.5), the services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 50.7, previous 50.5), the composite PMI preliminary value was 51 (expected 50.8, previous 50.6), and the SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [2] - **China**: The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [2] - **US**: In July, the S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous 52.9), the services PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53, previous 52.9), and the Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [2] Futures Market - **Contract Information**: On August 21, the main contract 2510 closed at 1325.0, down 2.49%, with a trading volume of 3.50 million lots and an open interest of 5.43 million lots, an increase of 2566 lots from the previous day. The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [3] Geopolitical and Trade - **Middle - East Situation**: The cease - fire in Gaza may fail again, the spot price is falling, and short - selling sentiment is rising. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [1][3] - **US - China Tariffs**: The extension of US - China tariffs continues, and the negotiation has no substantial progress. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the current spot price has slightly decreased [3]
集运日报:中东局势反复,现价维持下跌,助长空头情绪,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损-20250822
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 05:46
2025年8月22日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 中东局势反复,现价维持下跌,助长空头情绪,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 8月15日 8月18日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 1052.5点,较上期下跌0.1% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 2180.17点,较上期下跌2.5% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(欧洲航线) 1188.7点,较上期下跌5.5% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1106.29点, 较上期上涨2.2% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1042.91点, 较上期下跌5.9% 8月15日 8月15日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1460.19点,较上期下跌29.49点 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1193.34点,较上期下跌0.6% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1820USD/TEU,较上期下跌7.2% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (欧洲航线) 1790.47点,较上期下跌0.5% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl美西航线1759US ...
集运日报:以方不回应停火,现货运价维持下行趋势,盘面偏弱震荡,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损-20250821
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 06:59
| 8月18日 | 8月15日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS(欧洲航线)2180.17点,较上期下跌2.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(综合指数)1052.5点,较上期下跌0.1% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS(美西航线)1106.29点,较上期上涨2.2% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(欧洲航线)1188.7点,较上期下跌5.5% | | 8月15日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(美西航线)1042.91点,较上期下跌5.9% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1460.19 点,较上期下跌29.49点 | 8月15日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1820USD/TEU, 较上期下跌7.2% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(综合指数)1193.34点,较上期下跌0.6% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1759USD/FEU,较上期下跌3.5% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(欧洲航线)1790.47点,较上期下跌0.5% | | | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(美西航线 ...
勇利投资(01145.HK)上半年收入438.1万美元 同比下降14%
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-20 10:21
Core Viewpoint - Yongli Investment (01145.HK) reported a significant decline in revenue and a shift from profit to loss in the first half of 2025, primarily due to adverse market conditions in the shipping industry [1] Financial Performance - The company recorded revenue of $4.381 million in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 14% [1] - The loss attributable to shareholders was $1.708 million, compared to a profit of $1.278 million in the same period last year [1] - Basic loss per share was $0.16, a decline from a basic earnings per share of $0.12 for the period ending June 30, 2024 [1] Market Conditions - The shipping business faced immense pressure, with charter rates for ultra-flexible dry bulk carriers plummeting by 34.1% year-on-year [1] - The decline in demand for goods was attributed to escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and other countries, as well as ongoing geopolitical conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine, leading to reduced demand and an oversupply of vessels [1] Strategic Response - To mitigate the cyclical impacts on the shipping business, the company strategically resumed its trading operations during the first half of 2025 [1]
集运日报:哈马斯再次同意停火,短期情绪或有影响,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损。-20250819
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 05:17
Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the reports. Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] - Given the short - term market fluctuations, it is not advisable to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1] - The market may experience wide - range fluctuations when the basis converges, and attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Summary by Related Content Shipping Freight Index - On August 18, the NCFI (composite index) was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS (European route) was 2180.17 points, down 2.5%; the NCFI (European route) was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1106.29 points, up 2.2%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% [1] - On August 15, the SCFI was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the CCFI (composite index) was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%; the SCFI European route price was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%; the CCFI (European route) was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%; the SCFI US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%; the CCFI (US West route) was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1] Economic Data of Different Regions - In the Eurozone in July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the services PMI was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7; the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8; the SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [2] - In the US in July, the S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7); the services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53); the Markit composite PMI was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [2] - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] Futures Market - On August 18, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1373.1, with a gain of 0.01%, the trading volume was 28,100 lots, and the open interest was 53,200 lots, a decrease of 1677 lots from the previous day [3] - The SCFIS European route index declined again, and some liner companies continued to lower spot freight rates. The market is in a wait - and - see mood, and the futures market may fluctuate widely when the basis converges [3] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Risk - takers can try to go long lightly around 1300 of the 2510 contract, pay attention to the subsequent market trend, and set stop - loss [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see or participate lightly [4] - Long - term strategy: It is advisable to take profits when the contracts rise, and then judge the subsequent direction after the price stabilizes [4] Policy Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]
集运日报:哈马斯再次同意停火,短期情绪或有影响,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损-20250819
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 03:30
Report Industry Investment Rating - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] Core Viewpoints - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the game is challenging, and it is advisable to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [3] - With the SCFIS European route index declining again and some shipping companies reducing spot freight rates, the market is cautious, and the futures market may fluctuate widely when the basis converges. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Summary by Related Content Shipping Market - On August 15 - 18, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2180.17 points, down 2.5%; the NCFI for the European route was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1106.29 points, up 2.2%; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% [1] - On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%; the SCFI for the European route was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%; the CCFI for the European route was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%; the CCFI for the US - West route was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1] Economic Data - In July, the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5; the service PMI was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5; the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6. The SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [2] - In July, the US manufacturing PMI was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 52.9; the service PMI was 55.2, higher than the expected 53 and the previous value of 52.9; the composite PMI was 54.6, the highest since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9 [2] - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [2] Futures Market - On August 18, the main contract 2510 closed at 1373.1, with a gain of 0.01%, a trading volume of 28,100 lots, and an open interest of 53,200 lots, a decrease of 1677 lots from the previous day [3] Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, they can try to go long lightly around 1300 for the 2510 contract. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and holding losing positions is not recommended. Stop - loss should be set [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Given the volatile international situation, it is advisable to wait and see or participate with a light position [4] - Long - term strategy: Profits should be taken when the contracts rise, and after waiting for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, the subsequent direction can be judged [4] Policy Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]
集运日报:悲观情绪略有修复,主力合约宽幅震荡,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损-20250815
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 11:29
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Pessimistic sentiment has slightly recovered, with the main contract experiencing wide - range fluctuations. Given the large recent volatility, it is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set. In the context of geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, and it is advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [2][5]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 SCFIS, NCFI and Other Freight Rate Indexes - On August 11, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2235.48 points, down 2.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1082.14 points, down 4.2% from the previous period. On August 8, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1053.86 points, down 3.11% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1257.71 points, down 8.37% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1042.91 points, down 6.42% from the previous period. Also on August 8, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European line was 1961 USD/TEU, down 4.39% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1823 USD/FEU, down 9.80% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1200.73 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1799.05 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 827.84 points, down 5.6% from the previous period [3]. 3.2 PMI Data - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5. The eurozone's July services PMI preliminary value reached 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5. The eurozone's July composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6. The eurozone's July SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, significantly higher than June's 0.2 and the market - expected 1.1, reaching the highest level since April 2022. In the US, the July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, with an expected 52.7 and a previous value of 52.9; the July S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, with an expected 53 and a previous value of 52.9. The US July Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9. China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [3][4]. 3.3 Trade and Market Situation - The Sino - US tariff extension continues, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased. Against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5]. 3.4 Market Conditions of the Main Contract - On August 14, the main contract 2510 closed at 1359.5, with a decline of 0.18%, a trading volume of 32,100 lots, and an open interest of 56,700 lots, a decrease of 4042 lots from the previous day. The market's macro - sentiment has slightly recovered, but due to the possible stabilization of market freight rates, the long - short game is intense, and the market fluctuates widely. Except for the main contract, other contracts have risen. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [5]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Short - term strategy**: For risk - takers, a light - position long attempt can be made around 1300 for the 2510 contract. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Stop - losses should be set. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines temporarily or make a light - position attempt. - **Long - term strategy**: For each contract, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent trend [5]. 3.6 Contract Rules Adjustment - The up - and down limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5]. 3.7 Shipping Industry Forecast - After a 6% growth in global container shipping volume in 2024, it is expected to grow by 3% year - on - year in 2025 and 2026 respectively. The global container fleet may not scrap any capacity in 2025 after scrapping 100,000 TEU of capacity each year in 2023 and 2024. The global ship delivery volume is expected to be 3.1 million TEU in 2024, 1.8 million TEU in 2025, and 1.6 million TEU in 2026. Currently, there are 9.3 million TEU of ship orders globally, accounting for 29% of the global fleet, higher than 27% in 2024 [5].
集运日报:中美关税再度延期,现货运价持续走低,盘面偏弱震荡,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损。-20250813
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 05:58
Report Overview - Report Date: August 13, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research Group: Shipping Research Team Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties increase the difficulty of market gaming, suggesting light - position participation or observation [5] - The spot freight rate is continuously declining, and the market is bearish on future prices, with the market fluctuating weakly [2][5] Summary by Relevant Content Freight Index Data - On August 11, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2235.48 points, down 2.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1082.14 points, down 4.2% [3] - On August 8, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1053.86 points, down 3.11% from the previous period; the European route was 1257.71 points, down 8.37%; the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 6.42% [3] - On August 8, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points from the previous period; the European line price was 1961 USD/TEU, down 4.39%; the US - West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 9.80% [3] - On August 8, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1200.73 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; the European route was 1799.05 points, up 0.5%; the US - West route was 827.84 points, down 5.6% [3] PMI Data - In July, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI initial value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the service PMI initial value was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7; the composite PMI initial value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5 [3] - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4] - In July, the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI initial value was 49.5 (expected 52.7), the service PMI initial value was 55.2 (expected 53), and the composite PMI initial value was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [4] Tariff and Market Situation - Trump's government continues to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, and delays the tariff negotiation date to August 1. Some shipping companies announce freight rate increases, and the spot market has a small price increase to test the market [5] - The China - US tariff is postponed for another 90 days, and Maersk's recent quotes are continuously decreasing [5] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to go long lightly below 1300 for the 2510 contract (with a profit margin of over 300 points), and take partial profits; go short lightly for the EC2512 contract and take profits. Set stop - losses [5] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, with a positive spread structure and large fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and observe or try with a light position [5] - Long - term strategy: For each contract, take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent direction [5] Contract Information - On August 12, the main contract 2510 closed at 1417.6, down 1.48%, with a trading volume of 3.60 million lots and an open interest of 5.60 million lots, a decrease of 734 lots from the previous day [5] - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the company's margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5]
集运日报:中美关税再度延期,现货运价持续走低,盘面偏弱震荡近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损-20250813
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 05:26
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical conflicts combined with tariff fluctuations make trading difficult, so it is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see [5]. - The spot freight rate is continuously declining, and the market is pessimistic about future prices. The market is oscillating weakly, and it is not recommended to increase positions. Stop - loss should be set [2]. Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On August 11, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2235.48 points, down 2.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1082.14 points, down 4.2% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1053.86 points, down 3.11% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1257.71 points, down 8.37% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 6.42% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1961 USD/TEU, down 4.39% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 9.80% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1200.73 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1799.05 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 827.84 points, down 5.6% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the euro - zone's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The SENTIX investor confidence index in July jumped to 4.5 [3]. - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [4]. Policy and Market Situation - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further hit transit trade. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. Some shipping companies announced freight rate increases, and the market price range was set with a small price increase to test the market [5]. - The US - China tariff negotiation was postponed for 90 days. Maersk's recent quotes have been continuously declining, and the market is pessimistic about future prices [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to go long lightly below 1300 for the 2510 contract (already with a profit margin of over 300 points) and take partial profits; go short lightly for the EC2512 contract and take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Information - On August 12, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1417.6, down 1.48%, with a trading volume of 360,000 lots and an open interest of 560,000 lots, a decrease of 734 lots from the previous day [5]. - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 were adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [5].