1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand logic of methanol in China is different this week, showing a regional trend with the north stronger than the south. The price of methanol in production areas is likely to rise, while the rising range in sales areas is restricted. The port has a strong long - term expectation but is restricted by high inventory. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with the MA2601 contract oscillating between 2240 - 2380 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamental situation of methanol 2601 is neutral. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory has increased, which is bearish. The 20 - day line is downward and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish. The main position is net long with an increase in long positions, which is bullish [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Bullish factors include some device shutdowns, reduced methanol production in Iran, new production of acetic acid devices, and external procurement of methanol by northwest CTO plants [6]. - Bearish factors include the resumption of previously shut - down devices, concentrated vessel arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, the traditional off - season of formaldehyde, a significant decline in MTBE operation, profit - driven active sales of coal - based methanol, and inventory accumulation in some production area factories [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2270 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis is - 76. The prices of methanol in various regions and the futures closing price have declined to varying degrees. The price of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether remains stable, while the price of acetic acid has increased by 4% [5][8][9][31]. - **Inventory**: As of September 18, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports is 132.98 million tons, a cumulative increase of 6.25 million tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has increased by 5.80 million tons to 94.95 million tons [5]. - **Profit**: The profits of coal - based and natural - gas - based methanol production processes have decreased, while the profit of the coke - oven gas - based process has increased. The production profits of formaldehyde and MTO are negative, while the production profits of dimethyl ether and acetic acid are positive [20][35][38][42][47]. - **Load**: The national weighted average methanol load is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The load of MTO devices has increased slightly [21][47]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic methanol plants**: Many plants in different regions such as the Northwest, East, and Southwest are under maintenance, with varying maintenance start and end times and different production capacity losses [58]. - **Foreign methanol plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have normal operations, and some plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States also have different operating conditions [59]. - **Olefin plants**: Some olefin plants in the Northwest, East, and other regions are under maintenance or have normal operations, and some have planned future maintenance or production expansion [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol are still weak in the short - term. Despite the implementation of positive factors such as the shutdown of Rongxin Phase I methanol plant in the inland and the startup of Xingxing MTO plant at the port, the price remains weak due to high inventory. [3][85] - There is an expectation of improvement in methanol fundamentals on a month - on - month basis, but the supply pressure is still large. Whether the inventory can be effectively reduced after the startup of downstream MTO plants is a key point. [3][85] - In the long run, it may still be necessary to wait for a buying opportunity. It is recommended to adopt a weak - oscillation mindset, close previous short positions, and wait for lower prices or clear driving factors for long positions. [3][85] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - Methanol spot market prices declined this week. The basis quote on Friday was around 01 - 95 yuan/ton, and the basis quote for mid - October paper goods was 01 - 60 yuan/ton. [8] 3.2 Basis and Spread - **Methanol Basis**: The basis quotes of methanol oscillated this week. The basis quote for paper goods in late October was around 01 - 60 yuan/ton. The inland basis of methanol oscillated, and the prices in the inland and northwest markets oscillated this week. [8][16][32] - **Regional Spread**: The spread between East China and inland regions of methanol weakened in an oscillatory manner. [41] - **Near - far Month Spread**: It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the spread. [49] - **PP - 3MA Spread**: The PP - 3MA spread rebounded in an oscillatory manner this week. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of shorting PP and going long on MA in the later stage. [57] 3.3 Industrial Chain Profit - **Methanol Production**: Many new methanol plants were under maintenance, and the methanol operating rate declined slightly. However, many maintenance plants resumed production, and methanol production began to increase. [62][65] - **Methanol Downstream**: The operating rate of dimethyl ether oscillated, the operating rate of formaldehyde rebounded in an oscillatory manner, and the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins in the northwest oscillated at a high level. [72] - **MTO**: The operating rate of methanol - to - olefins plants oscillated this week, and MTO profits continued to recover. [75] 3.4 Market Expectation - **Unilateral Strategy**: Adopt a weak - oscillation mindset, close previous short positions. Wait for lower prices or clear driving factors for long positions. [4][86] - **Hedging Strategy**: Wait and see. [5][87]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the methanol industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the port methanol market has a mix of long and short factors. With the intensification of the Red Sea situation, there is some macro - level support. However, as overseas plants resume operation, the fundamentals may gradually return to a supply - demand pattern with a slight surplus. It is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to news from olefin enterprises. - In the inland market, under the background of weak supply and demand, the adjustment space for methanol prices is expected to be limited this week. The focus remains on whether olefin plants will make external purchases. - Overall, it is expected that methanol prices will fluctuate this week. The MA2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2350 - 2410 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The port market has mixed factors. The inland market has a supply - demand imbalance, with weak demand due to high - temperature seasons and poor downstream profitability, but supply is also supported by factors such as increased raw material gaps in CTO plants and concentrated shutdowns of production facilities. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2420 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 53, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. - **Inventory**: As of July 10, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports was 56.76 tons, a cumulative increase of 6.79 tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas increased by 3.65 tons to 31.29 tons. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing. - **Expectation**: Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate this week, with the MA2509 contract trading between 2350 - 2410 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - **Long Factors**: Some plants have shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; the operating rate of Iranian methanol plants has decreased; the 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production, and the 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant of Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong plans to start production this month; the raw material methanol gap in major CTO plants in the Northwest has widened [6]. - **Short Factors**: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed operation, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; there is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde market has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has significantly declined; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some factories in production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: The spot price of methanol in various regions has changed. For example, in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.33% week - on - week, while in Hebei, it increased by 0.69%. The futures closing price decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 2367 yuan/ton. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis in Jiangsu is 53, and there are various spread changes, such as the import spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton. - **Operating Rate**: The weighted average national operating rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions all decreased. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East China ports increased by 8.35 tons to 42.62 tons, while in South China ports, it decreased by 1.56 tons to 14.14 tons. - **Production Profit**: The profit of coal - based methanol decreased slightly, the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged at - 120 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol increased by 334 yuan/ton to 522 yuan/ton [8][9][21]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many plants in different regions are under maintenance, such as Shaanxi Black Cat, Baihai Zhonghao, and others. The maintenance periods and losses vary by plant. - **Overseas Plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of resuming operation, while others are operating stably. Plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States also have different operating conditions [56][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply of methanol at home and abroad is gradually recovering, and the subsequent supplementary volume of domestic production in the mainland and overseas imports will increase over time. With coal prices remaining low, coal - to - methanol production is profitable, and the mid - and upstream are motivated to sell at high prices. From the demand side, the main consumption market in northern Shandong is slightly weak, and most downstream products such as acetic acid and formaldehyde follow rigid demand. With the approaching Tomb - Sweeping Festival and general oil product demand, tight transportation capacity may drive freight rates up. Overall, in the game between supply and demand, the domestic methanol market is expected to be slightly weak this week, with local areas at risk of callback; the price of methanol is expected to fluctuate mainly, and MA2505 should be operated in the range of 2470 - 2525 [4]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: The supply of methanol at home and abroad is recovering, and the market is expected to be slightly weak this week with local callback risks; neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2590 yuan/ton, the basis of the 05 contract is 104, and the spot price is higher than the futures price; bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: As of March 27, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 60.54 tons, a decrease of 8.43 tons from the previous period; the total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 5.47 tons to 38.34 tons; bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average; bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, and MA2505 should be operated in the range of 2470 - 2525 [4]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - **Long Factors**: Some plants have stopped or have maintenance plans; the import volume in March is expected to be low, and port inventory has decreased more than expected; olefin production is at a high level, and traditional downstream demand has entered the peak season; methanol plant inventory in production areas is tight; the central bank plans to cut reserve requirements and interest rates, which is beneficial to the commodity and financial markets [6]. - **Short Factors**: Some previously shut - down plants have restart plans; the operating rate of refineries in northern Shandong is low; the temperature in Iran has warmed up, and attention should be paid to the restart rhythm of local plants; although the price of methanol has risen recently, it is difficult to pass on costs, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback from downstream; upstream plants are actively selling under high profits [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: The spot price of methanol in various regions has shown different degrees of change. For example, the price in Jiangsu has decreased by 3.67% week - on - week, while the prices in Shandong, Hebei, etc. have remained unchanged [7][8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The profits of different methanol production processes vary. Coal - to - methanol profit has decreased by 65 yuan/ton week - on - week, while the profits of natural gas - to - methanol and coke - oven gas - to - methanol have remained stable or increased [20]. - **Operating Rate**: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, and the Southwest have also decreased to varying degrees [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East and South China ports has decreased. The total inventory in East and South China ports has decreased by 8.43 tons to 60.54 tons, and the available and tradable inventory in coastal areas has decreased by 5.47 tons to 38.34 tons [4]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, planned shutdown, or production - reduction states, including plants in the Northwest, East China, Southwest, and Northeast regions [55]. - **Overseas Plants**: Some overseas methanol plants are in the process of restarting, maintenance, or normal operation, mainly in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries [56]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants are in maintenance, shutdown, or normal operation states, including plants in the Northwest, East China, and other regions [57].