1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand logic of methanol in China is different this week, showing a regional trend with the north stronger than the south. The price of methanol in production areas is likely to rise, while the rising range in sales areas is restricted. The port has a strong long - term expectation but is restricted by high inventory. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with the MA2601 contract oscillating between 2240 - 2380 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamental situation of methanol 2601 is neutral. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory has increased, which is bearish. The 20 - day line is downward and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish. The main position is net long with an increase in long positions, which is bullish [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Bullish factors include some device shutdowns, reduced methanol production in Iran, new production of acetic acid devices, and external procurement of methanol by northwest CTO plants [6]. - Bearish factors include the resumption of previously shut - down devices, concentrated vessel arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, the traditional off - season of formaldehyde, a significant decline in MTBE operation, profit - driven active sales of coal - based methanol, and inventory accumulation in some production area factories [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2270 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis is - 76. The prices of methanol in various regions and the futures closing price have declined to varying degrees. The price of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether remains stable, while the price of acetic acid has increased by 4% [5][8][9][31]. - **Inventory**: As of September 18, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports is 132.98 million tons, a cumulative increase of 6.25 million tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has increased by 5.80 million tons to 94.95 million tons [5]. - **Profit**: The profits of coal - based and natural - gas - based methanol production processes have decreased, while the profit of the coke - oven gas - based process has increased. The production profits of formaldehyde and MTO are negative, while the production profits of dimethyl ether and acetic acid are positive [20][35][38][42][47]. - **Load**: The national weighted average methanol load is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The load of MTO devices has increased slightly [21][47]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic methanol plants**: Many plants in different regions such as the Northwest, East, and Southwest are under maintenance, with varying maintenance start and end times and different production capacity losses [58]. - **Foreign methanol plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have normal operations, and some plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States also have different operating conditions [59]. - **Olefin plants**: Some olefin plants in the Northwest, East, and other regions are under maintenance or have normal operations, and some have planned future maintenance or production expansion [60].

港口持续累库，甲醇偏弱震荡 中泰期货甲醇产业链周报 2025年9月14日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 现货市场 4 行情预期 3 产业链利润 2 基差价差 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 逻辑观点 近期甲醇基本面仍然偏弱，虽然内地荣信一期甲醇装置停车，港口下游MTO兴兴开车等利多因素兑现， 但盘面仍受至于偏高的库存，价格表现持续偏弱。 我们认为甲醇基本面环比有好转预期，但自身供应压力还是比较大，下游MTO开车以后能否有效去库 是比较重要的关键点。长期来看甲醇可能仍需要等待买入时机，我们建议震荡偏弱思路对待，前期空单考虑 离场，多单建议等待更低价位或者驱动明确。 单边策略：震荡偏弱思路，前期空单离场。多单建议等待更低价位或者驱动明确。 对冲策略：观望。 风险因素：地缘政治局势突变导致伊朗甲醇出口受阻 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-17甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 近期多空分析 利多： 1.部分装置停车：榆林凯越、新疆新业等。 2.伊朗甲醇开工降低；港口库存处于低位。 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口市场方面，红海紧张局势加剧，宏观方面或存一定支撑，不过随着外盘装置恢复，后续基本面或逐步 回归供需偏宽松格局，短期港口甲醇市场多空因素交织，或将维持区间震荡格局，需持续关注烯烃企业消息。内地方 面，多数下游盈利水平较差甚至是亏损销售，尤其是当前高温需求淡季部分终端停车或者降负，但西北主要CTO工厂原 料甲醇缺口放大，以及内地部分货源可流通至港口，且近期产区甲醇装置集中停车，供应端仍有一定支撑。综合来看 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply of methanol at home and abroad is gradually recovering, and the subsequent supplementary volume of domestic production in the mainland and overseas imports will increase over time. With coal prices remaining low, coal - to - methanol production is profitable, and the mid - and upstream are motivated to sell at high prices. From the demand side, the main consumption market in northern Shandong is slightly weak, and most downstream products such as acetic acid and formaldehyde follow rigid demand. With the approaching Tomb - Sweeping Festival and general oil product demand, tight transportation capacity may drive freight rates up. Overall, in the game between supply and demand, the domestic methanol market is expected to be slightly weak this week, with local areas at risk of callback; the price of methanol is expected to fluctuate mainly, and MA2505 should be operated in the range of 2470 - 2525 [4]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: The supply of methanol at home and abroad is recovering, and the market is expected to be slightly weak this week with local callback risks; neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2590 yuan/ton, the basis of the 05 contract is 104, and the spot price is higher than the futures price; bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: As of March 27, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 60.54 tons, a decrease of 8.43 tons from the previous period; the total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 5.47 tons to 38.34 tons; bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average; bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, and MA2505 should be operated in the range of 2470 - 2525 [4]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - **Long Factors**: Some plants have stopped or have maintenance plans; the import volume in March is expected to be low, and port inventory has decreased more than expected; olefin production is at a high level, and traditional downstream demand has entered the peak season; methanol plant inventory in production areas is tight; the central bank plans to cut reserve requirements and interest rates, which is beneficial to the commodity and financial markets [6]. - **Short Factors**: Some previously shut - down plants have restart plans; the operating rate of refineries in northern Shandong is low; the temperature in Iran has warmed up, and attention should be paid to the restart rhythm of local plants; although the price of methanol has risen recently, it is difficult to pass on costs, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback from downstream; upstream plants are actively selling under high profits [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: The spot price of methanol in various regions has shown different degrees of change. For example, the price in Jiangsu has decreased by 3.67% week - on - week, while the prices in Shandong, Hebei, etc. have remained unchanged [7][8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The profits of different methanol production processes vary. Coal - to - methanol profit has decreased by 65 yuan/ton week - on - week, while the profits of natural gas - to - methanol and coke - oven gas - to - methanol have remained stable or increased [20]. - **Operating Rate**: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, and the Southwest have also decreased to varying degrees [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East and South China ports has decreased. The total inventory in East and South China ports has decreased by 8.43 tons to 60.54 tons, and the available and tradable inventory in coastal areas has decreased by 5.47 tons to 38.34 tons [4]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, planned shutdown, or production - reduction states, including plants in the Northwest, East China, Southwest, and Northeast regions [55]. - **Overseas Plants**: Some overseas methanol plants are in the process of restarting, maintenance, or normal operation, mainly in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries [56]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants are in maintenance, shutdown, or normal operation states, including plants in the Northwest, East China, and other regions [57].