Core Viewpoint - The recent delays in unloading due to various factors have pushed back import pressures, leading to a significant increase in planned port arrivals. However, the driving force for methanol price increases is weak, and there is a risk of price correction in the short term. In the medium to long term, after mid-January, a decrease in methanol imports and the restart of Ningbo Fude are expected to gradually reduce port inventories, suggesting opportunities for low-cost buying of contracts [2][14]. Cost Side: Weak Expectations - Recent coal prices have continued to decline, with the Q5500 coal price dropping to 694 yuan/ton. As coal mines complete their annual production tasks, there is an expectation of reduced output. Demand is expected to weaken as the industrial sector approaches the New Year, while residential demand is predicted to be warmer than in previous years, leading to a forecast of weak coal prices in January [2][3]. Supply: High Then Low Expectations - The profitability of coal-to-methanol production has decreased but remains acceptable. Chemical plants typically do not undergo maintenance in winter, so coal-to-methanol production is expected to remain high. Additionally, domestic natural gas supply has increased, leading to a reduction in gas supply restrictions compared to previous years, with several gas-based plants expected to restart in January [3][15]. Import Situation: High Then Decreasing - Since late November, Iran's gas supply restrictions have been implemented, with about 90% of Iranian production capacity currently offline. However, due to inventory shipments, Iran's port loading volume was still significant in December, with 503,000 tons reported as of December 21. It is anticipated that some shipments will be delayed until January, but a decrease in loading volume is expected in the latter half of December, leading to a gradual decline in imports after mid-January [5][17]. Demand Side: Stable Then Strong Expectations - The profitability of MTO (Methanol-to-Olefins) has been under pressure, with recent losses expanding as methanol prices rebound. The operational status of various plants is mixed, with some undergoing maintenance while others have recently restarted. Demand is expected to remain stable in the short term but may increase significantly after mid-January with the restart of Ningbo Fude [7][19]. Port Inventory: Accumulation Then Reduction Expectations - Due to the delays in unloading in early December, methanol port inventories have significantly decreased. However, with the increase in planned port arrivals to 1.15 million tons and improved unloading conditions, inventories are expected to return to an accumulation pattern. After mid-January, as imports decline and Ningbo Fude restarts, inventories are projected to gradually decrease [8][20]. Market Outlook - The combination of delayed unloading and increased planned arrivals has led to a return to an accumulation pattern for port inventories. The driving force for methanol price increases is weak, and there is a risk of short-term price corrections. In the medium to long term, a decrease in imports and the restart of Ningbo Fude are expected to lead to a gradual reduction in inventories, suggesting opportunities for low-cost buying of contracts [11][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand logic of methanol in China is expected to show regional trends this week, with a generally stronger north and weaker south. Inland areas may see higher prices due to increased olefin demand, but the inflow of port supplies may limit price increases in the sales areas. Ports face a situation of high inventory in the short term and reduced imports and increased demand in the long term, with limited upside potential [5]. - It is expected that methanol prices will fluctuate this week, with the MA2601 contract expected to trade between 2340 - 2400 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The supply-demand logic of methanol in China is expected to show regional trends this week, with a generally stronger north and weaker south. Inland areas may see higher prices due to increased olefin demand, but the inflow of port supplies may limit price increases in the sales areas. Ports face a situation of high inventory in the short term and reduced imports and increased demand in the long term, with limited upside potential [5]. - The basis of the 01 contract is -76, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. - As of September 11, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports was 126.73 million tons, a cumulative increase of 12.27 million tons from the previous period. The total available methanol in the coastal areas increased by 8.79 million tons to 89.15 million tons [5]. - The 20-day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average [5]. - The net long position of the main contract is decreasing [5]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Some domestic methanol plants are shut down, Iranian methanol plants have reduced production, and there is an increase in demand from port olefin plants and pre - holiday restocking [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Some previously shut - down domestic plants have resumed production, there is a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, MTBE operating rates have declined significantly, coal - to - methanol plants have a certain profit margin and are actively selling, and some inland plants have accumulated inventory [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2300 yuan/ton. There have been slight fluctuations in domestic methanol prices in different regions this week, with a -0.13% change in Jiangsu, 0.00% in Shandong, 0.22% in Hebei, -0.35% in Inner Mongolia, and -0.22% in Fujian [5][9]. - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the main futures contract is 2376 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day [8]. - **Basis**: The basis of the 01 contract is -76, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports was 126.73 million tons, a cumulative increase of 12.27 million tons from the previous period. The total available methanol in the coastal areas increased by 8.79 million tons to 89.15 million tons [5]. - **Operating Rates**: The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. Operating rates in different regions such as Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also declined [8]. - **Profits**: Coal - to - methanol profits decreased by 20 yuan/ton this week, natural gas - to - methanol profits remained at -40 yuan/ton, and coke oven gas - to - methanol profits increased by 327 yuan/ton [14]. - **External Market Prices**: The CFR China price increased by 1.14% this week, and the CFR Southeast Asia price increased by 0.93%. The price difference between the two remained unchanged [23]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including those in the Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions, with varying production capacities and maintenance durations [55]. - **Foreign Plants**: Some Iranian methanol plants are under maintenance or have reduced production, and plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States have different operating conditions [56]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some domestic olefin plants are under maintenance, while others are operating stably or at partial loads [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand logic of methanol in China is expected to result in a regional trend this week, with the north stronger than the south overall. Inland areas may see higher prices due to increased olefin demand, while the growth of prices in sales areas is restricted by the back - flow of port goods. Port areas have a strong long - term expectation but are constrained by high inventory. It is predicted that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with the MA2601 contract oscillating between 2340 - 2400 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2601 show a neutral situation. The supply - demand in different regions varies, with the north potentially stronger. The base - difference indicates that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish. The inventory shows an increase, also bearish. The disk is neutral, the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions, which is bullish. Overall, the price is expected to oscillate [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Some domestic devices are shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya. Iranian methanol production is affected by gas shortages and device shutdowns, and there are new production capacities coming online for downstream acetic acid [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Some previously shut - down devices are resuming production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua. There will be a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde enters the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has dropped significantly. Coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling goods, and some factories in production areas have accumulated inventory [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price data**: In the spot market, prices in different regions have different changes, with Jiangsu rising by 0.88% to 2295 yuan/ton, Hebei rising by 3.13% to 2305 yuan/ton, etc. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract increased by 17 yuan/ton to 2396 yuan/ton. The base - difference decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 101 yuan/ton, and the import - price difference decreased by 16 yuan/ton to - 82 yuan/ton [8][9][11]. - **Operating rate data**: The national weighted average operating rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in different regions also showed different degrees of decline, such as Shandong decreasing by 2.39% to 68.71% [8]. - **Inventory data**: As of September 11, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 126.73 million tons, an increase of 12.27 million tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable inventory in coastal areas increased by 8.79 million tons to 89.15 million tons [5]. - **Profit data**: The profits of different production processes vary. Coal - based methanol profit decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 313 yuan/ton, natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at - 40 yuan/ton, and coke - oven - gas - based methanol profit increased by 327 yuan/ton to 508 yuan/ton [21]. - **Downstream product data**: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged. The production profits of downstream products generally decreased, and the operating loads of some products increased slightly [32][36][39][43][48]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic devices**: Many domestic methanol production devices are in maintenance, including those in the northwest, east, southwest, and northeast regions, with different raw materials such as coal, natural gas, and coke - oven gas. The maintenance time and expected losses vary [59]. - **Overseas devices**: Some Iranian methanol devices have maintenance or production - resumption situations, and devices in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States also have different operating states [60]. - **Olefin devices**: Olefin devices in different regions, including the northwest and east, have different operating conditions, such as normal operation, maintenance, and planned production increases [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand logic for domestic methanol is expected to result in regional trends this week, with a generally stronger north and weaker south. Inland, increased olefin demand in production areas leads to a tight supply - demand balance, likely driving prices up. In sales areas, pre - holiday stocking demand from downstream, potential freight rate increases, and traders' reluctance to sell support higher arrival prices, but the reverse flow of port goods may limit price hikes. At ports, reduced future imports due to Iranian plant outages and increased demand from restarted olefin plants and pre - holiday stockpiling are countered by high current inventories, constraining price increases. Overall, methanol prices are expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2601 trading between 2340 - 2400 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - For methanol 2601, the fundamental situation shows regional differences. The base price indicates that the spot is at a discount to the futures. Inventory has increased in ports. The 20 - day line is downward with the price below it, but the main positions are net long and increasing. The expected price range for this week is 2340 - 2400 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Some domestic plants such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped production. Iranian methanol production has decreased, and port inventories are low. A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into operation this month. Northwest CTO plants are purchasing external methanol [6]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Some previously shut - down plants like Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production. There is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and MTBE production has declined significantly. Coal - based methanol has profit margins and is actively selling. Some plants in production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price Data - In the spot market, the price of steam - coal in the Bohai Rim remains unchanged at 675 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port is at 263 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2313 yuan/ton. CFR Southeast Asia has increased by 3 US dollars/ton to 327 US dollars/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract has decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 2379 yuan/ton. The number of registered warehouse receipts has increased by 1152 to 16131, and the valid forecast has decreased by 1500 to 0 [8]. 3.3.2 Spread Data - The basis has increased by 3 yuan/ton to - 99 yuan/ton. The import spread has increased by 8 yuan/ton to - 66 yuan/ton. Spreads between different regions and markets have also changed, such as the spread between Jiangsu and Shandong decreasing by 5 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3.3 Operating Rate Data - The national weighted average operating rate has decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. Operating rates in different regions have also declined, with Shandong down 2.39% to 68.71%, and Southwest down 1.22% to 44.06% [8]. 3.3.4 Inventory Data - As of September 11, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports has increased by 122,700 tons to 1.2673 million tons. The total available and tradable inventory in coastal areas has increased by 87,900 tons to 891,500 tons [5]. 3.4 Maintenance Status 3.4.1 Domestic Plant Maintenance - Many domestic plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling, etc. The maintenance periods vary, and the weekly maintenance losses also differ, with some plants having long - term outages and others having short - term or planned outages [59]. 3.4.2 Overseas Plant Maintenance - Some overseas plants, especially in Iran, are in the process of restarting or have uncertain operating conditions. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have restarted one unit, but it needs verification. Some plants in the US, Malaysia, and other countries also have different operating states, with some having planned outages [60]. 3.4.3 Olefin Plant Maintenance - Some domestic olefin plants are under maintenance or have different operating conditions. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin units have been shut down for maintenance since March 15, expected to last 45 days. Some plants are operating stably, while others have low loads or are in the process of restarting [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol are still weak in the short - term. Despite the implementation of positive factors such as the shutdown of Rongxin Phase I methanol plant in the inland and the startup of Xingxing MTO plant at the port, the price remains weak due to high inventory. [3][85] - There is an expectation of improvement in methanol fundamentals on a month - on - month basis, but the supply pressure is still large. Whether the inventory can be effectively reduced after the startup of downstream MTO plants is a key point. [3][85] - In the long run, it may still be necessary to wait for a buying opportunity. It is recommended to adopt a weak - oscillation mindset, close previous short positions, and wait for lower prices or clear driving factors for long positions. [3][85] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - Methanol spot market prices declined this week. The basis quote on Friday was around 01 - 95 yuan/ton, and the basis quote for mid - October paper goods was 01 - 60 yuan/ton. [8] 3.2 Basis and Spread - **Methanol Basis**: The basis quotes of methanol oscillated this week. The basis quote for paper goods in late October was around 01 - 60 yuan/ton. The inland basis of methanol oscillated, and the prices in the inland and northwest markets oscillated this week. [8][16][32] - **Regional Spread**: The spread between East China and inland regions of methanol weakened in an oscillatory manner. [41] - **Near - far Month Spread**: It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the spread. [49] - **PP - 3MA Spread**: The PP - 3MA spread rebounded in an oscillatory manner this week. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of shorting PP and going long on MA in the later stage. [57] 3.3 Industrial Chain Profit - **Methanol Production**: Many new methanol plants were under maintenance, and the methanol operating rate declined slightly. However, many maintenance plants resumed production, and methanol production began to increase. [62][65] - **Methanol Downstream**: The operating rate of dimethyl ether oscillated, the operating rate of formaldehyde rebounded in an oscillatory manner, and the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins in the northwest oscillated at a high level. [72] - **MTO**: The operating rate of methanol - to - olefins plants oscillated this week, and MTO profits continued to recover. [75] 3.4 Market Expectation - **Unilateral Strategy**: Adopt a weak - oscillation mindset, close previous short positions. Wait for lower prices or clear driving factors for long positions. [4][86] - **Hedging Strategy**: Wait and see. [5][87]