1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coal mine operating rate is stable, with the Erdos coal mine operating rate at 73% and the Yulin area at 50% as of January 15th. Coal production has recovered, and the daily coal output in Erdos and Yulin is around 4.2 million tons. The pithead price has stopped falling and rebounded slightly [4]. - The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 320 - 350 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate remains high and stable. Domestic supply is continuously abundant. The US dollar price has risen slightly. Most Iranian plants have shut down due to gas restrictions, non - Iranian operating rates have declined, and the overall foreign operating rate is at a low level. The import volume in January is expected to be around 1.2 billion tons [4]. - The operating rate of MTO plants has rebounded. Some MTO plants are operating stably, while some are under - loaded or shut down. Port inventories are continuously decreasing, and inland enterprise inventories are fluctuating slightly [4]. - The international plant operating rate continues to decline, and gas restrictions in Iran have expanded. The daily output in Iran has dropped to around 6,000 tons. The spot liquidity at ports is sufficient, but the overall trading is light. The import volume in February is expected to be around 800,000 tons [4]. - Coal prices have basically stopped rising, coal - to - methanol profits are stable, inland operating rates are high, market circulation is abundant, and factory prices have fallen weakly. The operating rate of inland MTO is stable, and the domestic MTO shutdown expectation is strong. The Middle East situation is unstable, which provides strong support for methanol [4]. - Trading strategies include gradually building long positions in 05 contracts on dips for unilateral trading, paying attention to positive spreads for arbitrage, and selling put options in the over - the - counter market [4] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Supply and demand analysis**: Coal mine operating rates are stable, coal - to - methanol profits are good, domestic methanol supply is abundant, and foreign supply is affected by Iranian gas restrictions. MTO plant operating rates have rebounded, and port inventories are decreasing [4] - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral trading: gradually build long positions in 05 contracts on dips; Arbitrage: pay attention to positive spreads; Over - the - counter: sell put options [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking 2. Core Data Weekly Changes - **Supply - Domestic**: As of January 15th, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load was 77.63%, up 0.99 percentage points from last week and 3.48 percentage points from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load as of December 18th was 70.22%, up 1.35 percentage points from last week [5] - **Supply - International**: From January 10th to 16th, 2026, the international methanol (excluding China) output was 866,709 tons, a decrease of 1,190 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 59.41%, down 0.08% from last week [5] - **Supply - Import**: From January 8th to 14th, 2026, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 240,400 tons [5] - **Demand - MTO**: As of January 15th, 2026, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 53.84%, down 13.22 percentage points from last week. The national olefin plant operating rate was 86.93% [5] - **Demand - Traditional**: The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 2.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 17.78%. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate was 76.99%. The formaldehyde operating rate was 34.07% [5] - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume (excluding long - term contracts) of methanol sample production enterprises in the Northwest region was 46,400 tons, a decrease of 47,800 tons from the previous statistical day, a month - on - month decrease of 50.74% [5] - **Inventory - Enterprise**: The production enterprise inventory was 450,900 tons, a slight increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period. The sample enterprise order backlog was 237,800 tons, a slight increase of 300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.13% [5] - **Inventory - Port**: As of January 14th, 2026, the total methanol port inventory was 1.4353 million tons, a decrease of 101,900 tons from the previous period [5] - **Valuation**: The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was around 390 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi it was 380 yuan/ton. The port - northern line price difference was 370 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong price difference was 110 yuan/ton. MTO losses narrowed, and the basis was stable [5] 2. Spot Prices - The price in Taicang was 2,210 yuan/ton (-40), and the price in the northern line was 1,820 yuan/ton (-20) [8]

供应 • 本周(20260102-0108)中国甲醇装置有效产能为10627.5万吨/年，剔除失效产能177万吨/年；产量为2042365吨，较上周减少6200吨；装置产能利用率为 91.42%，因产能基数下降，导致环比涨1.12%。下周，中国甲醇产量及产能利用率周数据预计：产量205.18万吨左右，产能利用率91.84%左右，较本期微 涨。下周计划计划恢复涉及产能多于检修及减产涉及产能，因此或将导致产能利用率提升，产量增加。（隆众资讯） 需求 • 烯烃：随着后期华东MTO检修计划落地，MTO行业存在负荷降低预期。 • 传统下游：二甲醚下周，重庆万利来存开车计划，预计供应有增量，整体产能利用率或较上期走高。冰醋酸下周建滔预计重启中，其他工厂暂无计划内 检修，预计下周产能利用率窄幅走高。甲醛下周，安徽及河南区域部分装置存提负预期，预计下周供应增量，产能利用率或将提升。氯化物下周期，衡 阳锦东、江西石磊装置或恢复正常运行，需关注降负装置恢复情况，预计下周国内甲烷氯化物产能利用率呈上升态势。（隆众资讯） 库存 • 截至2026年1月7日11：30，中国甲醇样本生产企业库存44.77万吨，较上期增加2.51万吨，环比 ...

【7月18日甲醇期货与现货行情回顾及后市分析】7月18日，MA2509期货收于2365元/吨，周跌幅 0.21%，太仓基差20元/吨，较之前增加23元。当日，太仓甲醇现货价2385元/吨，上涨18元；鲁北甲醇 2260元/吨，上涨10元；鲁南甲醇2252元/吨，上涨30元；内蒙甲醇1982元/吨，下跌8元。价差方面， MA9 - 1价差收于 - 69元/吨，增加4元；MA1 - 5价差收于70元/吨，减少2元。跨区价差上，河南 - 江苏 价差240元/吨，增加18元；太仓 - 内蒙价差402元/吨，增加25元。运行逻辑来看，内地企业集中检修， 下游需求表现不错，支撑内地货源偏强；港口到港压力大，现货走势较弱。MTO利润修复到安全区 间，外采企业库存处于高位，短期装置停车概率不大；月底中煤蒙大或重启，需关注进度。马来西亚 170万吨/年装置因缺气计划7月底检修；文莱85万吨/年装置计划8月上旬常规检修。东南亚甲醇估值 高，若装置检修落实，将加剧地区货源紧张，流向中国的货源会减少。甲醇估值或向中性靠拢。旺季背 景下，煤价或反弹，中期下游进入旺季，利润或修复。推荐策略为MA2601参考区间2300～2650，前期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report suggests waiting for short - selling opportunities after the rebound of methanol contract 09. The reasons are that the macro - sentiment - driven rally is unsustainable, the supply of domestic coal - based methanol is recovering rapidly despite the uncertainty of Iranian imports, and the relative valuation of methanol is not low. Therefore, methanol lacks the potential for long - positions [4][42]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review From May 6th to May 13th, methanol prices oscillated upwards after the holiday. This was due to better - than - expected Sino - US tariff negotiations improving market risk appetite and the potential import shortfall from Iran in May as some Iranian plants were under - loaded or under maintenance [4][9][42]. 2. Basis and Spread The basis in East China weakened slightly. The basis in East China decreased from 181 yuan/ton on May 6th to 139 yuan/ton on May 13th. The 09 - 01 spread remained stable, changing from - 69 yuan/ton on May 6th to - 63 yuan/ton on May 13th [10]. 3. Supply - side Analysis 3.1 Cost and Operation High profits have accelerated the return of domestic coal - based methanol production. As of May 13th, the prices of Qinhuangdao and Datong thermal coal decreased. By May 8th, the weekly operating rate of coal - based methanol enterprises reached 81.46%, up 1.66 percentage points week - on - week and 4.95 percentage points year - on - year, while the weekly operating rate of gas - based methanol enterprises was 49.57%, flat week - on - week and up 6.78 percentage points year - on - year [15]. 3.2 Inventory Both port and domestic inventories of methanol are low. Iranian imports may decline in late May, potentially causing a temporary shortage of port supplies. As of May 8th, the inventory in East China ports was 23.86 million tons, up 0.94 million tons week - on - week and down 8.74 million tons year - on - year; the inventory in South China ports was 17.65 million tons, up 5.71 million tons week - on - week and up 5.43 million tons year - on - year; the inventory in the Northwest region was 19.2 million tons, up 2.1 million tons week - on - week and down 6.8 million tons year - on - year [21]. 4. Demand - side Analysis 4.1 MTO Demand The profit of coastal MTO plants is relatively high, while that of domestic plants is poor. The MTO plant of Jiangsu Sierbang is expected to restart in late May, and most other coastal external - procurement plants have room for capacity improvement. As of May 8th, the weekly operating rate of downstream methanol - to - olefins was 75.99%, down 2.08 percentage points week - on - week and down 6.84 percentage points year - on - year; the weekly operating rate of external - procurement methanol - to - olefins enterprises was 67.17%, up 2.66 percentage points week - on - week and down 16.66 percentage points year - on - year [26]. 4.2 Traditional Demand The traditional downstream sectors of methanol, such as acetic acid, MTBE, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether, have poor profits, and the traditional demand is generally weak, providing little positive support [33]. 5. Summary and Outlook The market situation is the same as in the market review. The view is to wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound, and the reasons are consistent with the core view of the report. The strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [42][43].