Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The geopolitical conflict will determine the market fluctuation direction. In the short - term, the supply - demand fundamentals are good, and the local methanol price has strong operating resilience. The cost transmission is smooth inland, downstream开工 enthusiasm has increased, and the upstream methanol factories are continuously destocking. The port inventory is also decreasing. If the Middle East war continues, the methanol futures and spot prices will continue to be strong; if the war situation eases, there may be a phased correction, but the correction amplitude may be limited inland. The port market is expected to continue to be strong this week. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 3200 - 3500 [5]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The geopolitical conflict is the decisive factor for future market trends. In the short - term, the supply - demand fundamentals are good, and the methanol price is expected to fluctuate strongly this week. The MA2605 contract is expected to operate between 3200 - 3500 [5]. 2. Multi - Air Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: Some devices are shut down or operating at reduced loads; Iranian methanol production is at a low level, and imports in February are expected to shrink; methanol factories in the production areas have actively destocked, and current inventories are low; some downstream users are still stocking up before the Spring Festival [6]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and there is no shortage of supply; as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream industries such as formaldehyde are shutting down for holidays, and demand for raw materials is weakening; major olefin devices at ports are shut down, and local demand is significantly weakened; most downstream users have completed pre - holiday stocking, and short - term demand has decreased [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 3360 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis is 41, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. The futures closing price is 3319 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan/ton from the previous value [5][8]. - **Inventory**: As of March 26, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 75.62 tons, a decrease of 7.05 tons from the previous period; the total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) has decreased by 2.21 tons to 41.93 tons [5]. - **Price Changes**: The weekly increase in the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 9.50%, in Shandong South is 29.87%, in Hebei is 0.00%, in Inner Mongolia is 9.67%, and in Fujian is 9.57%. The weekly increase in the futures price is 5.73% [9][11]. - **Production Profit**: The weekly increase in coal - based methanol production profit is 140 yuan/ton, in natural - gas - based methanol production profit is 690 yuan/ton, and in coke - oven - gas - based methanol production profit is - 602 yuan/ton [22]. - **Operating Rate**: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week; the operating rate in the northwest region is 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% from the previous week [8][23]. - **External Market Prices**: The CFR price in China's main port is 414 US dollars/ton, an increase of 6.70% from the previous week; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 655 US dollars/ton, an increase of 17.70% from the previous week [26]. - **Traditional Downstream Products**: The price of formaldehyde remains unchanged, the price of dimethyl ether remains unchanged, and the price of acetic acid increases by 8.11% [33]. - **Production Profit and Load of Downstream Products**: The production profit of formaldehyde is - 403 yuan/ton, with a load of 30.98%; the production profit of dimethyl ether is - 320 yuan/ton, with a load of 9.79%; the production profit of acetic acid is 867 yuan/ton, with a load of 72.32%; the production profit of MTO is - 5248 yuan/ton, with a load of 84.18% [38][41][46][51]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling, etc. The maintenance time and loss vary by plant [61]. - **Overseas Methanol Plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level, and plants in other regions such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are generally operating normally [62]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants are under maintenance or operating at a low level, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy, while others are operating stably [63].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The direction of market fluctuations will be determined by changes in geopolitical conflicts. In the short term, with a favorable supply - demand fundamental, the local methanol price shows strong resilience. For the inland market, cost transmission is smooth, downstream开工 enthusiasm has increased, especially the consumption of raw material methanol by olefins has significantly increased, upstream methanol plants are continuously reducing inventory, and port inventory reduction is accelerating. The supply - demand fundamentals support the bottom of inland methanol. However, geopolitical conflicts are the decisive factor for future market trends. If the Middle East war continues, methanol futures and spot prices will remain strong; if the war situation eases, there may be a phased correction. The correction amplitude may be limited due to the tight supply - demand balance and increased olefin demand in the inland area. For the port market, imports are continuously decreasing, exports to Southeast Asia are surging, the main olefin plants at the port are starting up, demand is rapidly increasing, and port inventory is continuously decreasing. Multiple positive fundamentals support the port market, which is expected to continue to be strong this week. Future attention should be paid to the resonance of the chemical sector and the progress of the US - Iran conflict. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 oscillating between 3220 - 3450 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The fundamental situation of methanol 2605: The geopolitical conflict determines the market trend. In the short term, the supply - demand fundamentals are good, and the local methanol price is resilient. Inland cost transmission is smooth, downstream开工 is high, and inventory is decreasing. The port market has multiple positive factors such as reduced imports, increased exports, and starting olefin plants. The price is expected to be strong this week. The expected price range of MA2605 is 3220 - 3450 yuan/ton. The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price. As of March 26, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports decreased by 7.05 tons, and the available circulating supply in coastal areas decreased by 2.21 tons. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average. The main positions are net long and increasing [5]. 2. Long - Short Concerns - **Likely to be bullish**: Some plants have stopped or reduced production, such as Inner Mongolia Heima and Shanxi Zhongxin; the methanol production in Iran is at a low level, and imports in February are expected to continue to shrink; the inventory of methanol plants in the production area is low, and some enterprises even limit sales; some downstream users continue to stock up before the Spring Festival [6]. - **Likely to be bearish**: The domestic methanol production is at a high level, and there is no shortage of supply; as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream industries such as formaldehyde are gradually shutting down for holidays, and the demand for raw materials is weakening; the main olefin plants at the port are shut down, and local demand is significantly weakened; most downstream users have completed pre - holiday stocking, and the phased demand is decreasing [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price data**: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 688 yuan/ton, the price of methanol in Jiangsu is 3360 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port is 414 US dollars/ton, the import cost is 3492 yuan/ton, CFR Southeast Asia is 655 US dollars/ton, etc. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract is 3296 yuan/ton, the number of registered warrants is 7835, and the effective forecast is 147. The basis is 64 yuan/ton, and the import price difference is 196 yuan/ton. The price differences between different regions and markets are also provided [8]. - **Price trends**: The weekly increase in the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 10.16%, in Hebei is 11.68%, in Inner Mongolia is 7.34%, and in Fujian is 11.00%. The weekly increase in the futures price is 5.24%. The basis has increased by 146 yuan/ton [9][11]. - **Profit data**: The weekly profit of coal - based methanol production is 75 yuan/ton, the profit of natural gas - based methanol production remains at - 40 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke oven gas - based methanol production is 602 yuan/ton [20]. - **Load data**: The national weighted average methanol load is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week; the load in the northwest region is 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% from last week [22]. - **External market data**: The weekly increase in CFR China is 8.38%, in CFR Southeast Asia is 17.70%, and the price difference between China and Southeast Asia has decreased by 66.5 US dollars/ton [25]. - **Import price difference data**: The weekly increase in the spot price is 10.16%, the import cost has increased by 8.49%, and the import price difference has increased by 37 yuan/ton [29]. - **Downstream product data**: The price of formaldehyde remains unchanged, the price of dimethyl ether remains unchanged, and the price of acetic acid has increased by 21.21%. The production profit of formaldehyde is - 403 yuan/ton, the production profit of dimethyl ether is - 320 yuan/ton, and the production profit of acetic acid is 952 yuan/ton. The production profit of MTO is - 4752 yuan/ton [32][37][40][45][50]. - **Inventory data**: The inventory in East China ports is 47.27 tons, a decrease of 3.80 tons from last week; the inventory in South China ports is 28.3 tons, a decrease of 3.30 tons from last week [52]. - **Warrant data**: The number of warrants has increased by 2.54% to 7835, and the effective forecast remains at 147 [57]. - **Balance sheet data**: The report provides the methanol balance sheet from November 2022 to October 2024, including production, demand, net imports, inventory, and supply - demand differences [59]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic plant maintenance**: Multiple domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. The maintenance time and loss vary by plant [60]. - **Overseas plant operation**: The operation status of overseas methanol plants varies. Some plants in Iran are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level, and plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are generally operating normally [61]. - **Olefin plant operation**: The operation status of olefin plants also varies. Some plants are in normal operation, some are in maintenance, and some have plans for future maintenance or production [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The previous view of taking profits at high levels and short - term waiting is maintained, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [17] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment - **Market Trend**: A chart of the methanol index from 2025 - 01 - 01 to 2026 - 03 - 25 is presented, but no specific trend analysis is given [13][14][15] - **Factor Assessment & Strategy** - **Supply**: Overseas methanol production start - up rate has slowed down more than expected, and the domestic start - up rate is expected to decline marginally. Overseas exports are expected to decrease due to geopolitical factors, and the Middle - East trade flow has decreased. The supply factor is bullish (partially priced in) [17] - **Demand**: The MTO start - up rate has recovered, and there is also a slight recovery expectation in traditional downstream industries. The demand factor is neutral to bullish [17] - **Inventory**: Port inventory is at a high level in the same period, but de - stocking is expected to be relatively certain later. Factory inventory has been de - stocked smoothly. The inventory factor is neutral to bullish [17] - **Cost**: Thermal coal prices are fluctuating, and the impact of the increase in energy calorific value prices needs to be carefully observed. Short - term geopolitical events have triggered a small - scale pulse in oil and gas prices, and prices remain volatile at a high level. The cost factor is neutral [17] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - **Basis and Spread**: Charts of methanol term structure, Jiangsu methanol price, methanol main contract basis, and methanol primary - secondary monthly spread are presented, but no specific analysis is given [20][21] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Charts of methanol main contract open interest, trading volume, total open interest, and total trading volume are presented, but no specific analysis is given [23][24] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Raw Material Prices**: Charts of IPE UK natural gas, NYMEX natural gas, power coal in Ordos Q5500, and power coal in Qinhuangdao Port Q5500 are presented, but no specific analysis is given [28][30][33] - **Production Profit**: Charts of Inner Mongolia coal - based profit calculation, Southwest gas - based profit calculation, Shandong coal - based profit calculation, and MA - 2*ZC profit calculation are presented, but no specific analysis is given [34][35][37] - **Port Inventory**: Charts of port inventory, East China port inventory, South China port inventory, and methanol social inventory are presented, but no specific analysis is given [39][40] - **Regional Inventory**: Charts of factory inventory, factory inventory in the Northwest region, factory inventory in the East China region, and Ningbo Port (including Heyuan's self - owned supply) inventory are presented, but no specific analysis is given [41][42] 3.4 Supply Side - **Shipment Monitoring**: Charts of global shipments, global arrivals, Middle - East shipments, and Asia - Pacific arrivals are presented, but no specific analysis is given [46][47] - **Upstream Production and Start - up Rate**: Charts of domestic methanol start - up rate, weekly methanol production, and overseas methanol start - up rate are presented, but no specific analysis is given [49][50][55] - **Customs Imports**: Charts of recent import distribution, imports from Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Iran are presented, but no specific analysis is given [58][59] - **Arrival Volume**: Charts of methanol arrival volume in the East China region, South China region, and China are presented, but no specific analysis is given [61][62] - **International Spread**: Charts of import profit, China - Southeast Asia spread, China - US Gulf spread, and China - Europe spread are presented, but no specific analysis is given [64][65] - **Regional Spread**: Charts of East China - Inner Mongolia spread, East China - Southern Shandong spread, Southern Shandong - Northwest spread, and South China - East China spread are presented, but no specific analysis is given [67][68][71] - **Domestic Freight**: Charts of methanol freight from Luoyang to Changzhou, Fuyang to Changzhou, Dalate Banner to Dongying, and Yulin to Dongying are presented, but no specific analysis is given [73][74] 3.5 Demand Side - **Methanol - to - Olefins**: Charts of olefin start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang MTO start - up rate, Fude profit, and Xingxing profit are presented, but no specific analysis is given [78][79] - **PP Production Profit by Different Processes**: Charts of PP oil - based production gross profit, coal - based production gross profit, PDH - based production gross profit, and externally - purchased propylene - based production gross profit are presented, but no specific analysis is given [80][81] - **MTO - Related Spreads**: Charts of on - paper PP - 3MA, LL - 3MA, EG - 2MA, and MA - 2ZC are presented, but no specific analysis is given [83][84] - **Traditional Downstream**: Charts of methanol downstream demand proportion, 1,4 - butanediol capacity utilization rate, DMF start - up rate, DMC start - up rate, acetic acid start - up rate, acetic acid profit, formaldehyde start - up rate, formaldehyde profit, dimethyl ether start - up rate, dimethyl ether profit, MTBE start - up rate, MTBE profit, dichloromethane profit, and downstream manufacturer raw material inventory are presented, but no specific analysis is given [86][87][98] - **Related Product Ratios**: Charts of methanol/urea, methanol/INE crude oil, methanol/thermal coal, and methanol/ethylene glycol are presented, but no specific analysis is given [100][101] 3.6 Options - Related - **Methanol Options**: Charts of methanol options open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are presented, but no specific analysis is given [104][105] 3.7 Industry Structure Diagram - **Methanol Industry Chain**: A chart of the methanol industry chain and a mind - map of the methanol research framework analysis are presented, but no specific analysis is given [108][110]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Under the superposition of multiple positive factors, the methanol market is expected to maintain a strong short - term operation. Inland methanol is expected to remain firm, and the port market is expected to continue to be strong this week. The current methanol has shown a leading trend in the chemical market. The follow - up should focus on whether the US will withdraw troops from the Middle East and the sustainability of MTO profits. Once there are signs of the end of the war, the driving logic will change rapidly. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 oscillating between 3050 - 3250 [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2605 are positive in the short - term. Although the domestic methanol start - up is at a high level, the olefin demand has increased significantly, the futures have risen sharply, the upstream inventory removal has accelerated, and the port inventory has decreased rapidly. The spot support is further consolidated. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures. The inventory in East and South China ports has decreased. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the average line. The main positions are net long and increasing. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 oscillating between 3050 - 3250 [5] 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some devices have stopped or reduced loads; Iranian methanol start - up is at a low level, and imports are expected to continue to shrink in February; the inventory of methanol factories in the production area is low, and some enterprises even limit sales; some downstream users continue to stock up before the Spring Festival [6] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Domestic methanol start - up is at a high level, and there is no shortage of supply; as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream formaldehyde and other industries gradually stop production for holidays, weakening the demand for raw materials; the main olefin devices in the port have stopped, and the local demand has weakened significantly; most downstream users have completed pre - holiday stockpiling, and the phased demand has decreased [7] 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, the prices of various regions have different degrees of changes, such as the price of Jiangsu increasing by 7.05% week - on - week, and the price of Hebei increasing by 11.68% week - on - week. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract has increased by 113 yuan/ton, and the registered warehouse receipts have increased by 340. The basis, import spread, and price differences between regions have also changed [8][9] - **Start - up Rate**: The weighted average start - up rate of the whole country is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% compared with last week. The start - up rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have all decreased [8] - **Inventory Situation**: As of March 19, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 82.67 tons, a decrease of 5.39 tons compared with the previous period. The overall available and tradable supply of methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 5.43 tons to 44.15 tons [5] - **Profit of Different Processes**: The profits of coal - to - methanol, coke - oven gas - to - methanol, and natural - gas - to - methanol processes have different performance. For example, the weekly increase of coal - to - methanol profit is 105 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke - oven gas - to - methanol has increased by 592 yuan/ton [22] - **Prices of Traditional Downstream Products**: The prices of formaldehyde remain unchanged, the prices of dimethyl ether remain unchanged, and the prices of acetic acid have increased by 21.21% week - on - week [33] - **Production Profit and Load of Downstream Products**: The production profit of formaldehyde is negative and has decreased, and the load has increased slightly; the production profit of dimethyl ether has decreased, and the load has increased; the production profit of acetic acid has increased, and the load has decreased slightly; the production profit of MTO is negative and has decreased, and the load has decreased [37][40][45][50] 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance**: Many domestic methanol devices are in the state of maintenance, parking, or load reduction, involving regions such as Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast, with different maintenance start and end times and losses [60] - **Foreign Methanol Device Operation**: The operation status of foreign methanol devices varies. Some devices in Iran are in the process of restarting or running at a low level, and some devices in other countries are running normally or have completed maintenance [61] - **Olefin Device Operation**: The operation status of olefin devices is different. Some devices are in normal operation, some are in maintenance, and some have low loads [62]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Under the superposition of multiple positive factors, the methanol market is expected to maintain a strong short - term operation. Inland methanol is expected to remain firm, and the port market is expected to continue to be strong this week. The follow - up needs to focus on whether the US will withdraw troops from the Middle East and the sustainability of MTO profits. Once there are signs of the end of the war, the driving logic will change rapidly. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 oscillating between 3050 - 3200 yuan/ton [5] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Methanol 2605: Fundamentally, with multiple positive factors, the short - term methanol market may maintain a strong operation. The domestic methanol start - up is at a high level, but the olefin demand has increased significantly, and the futures have risen sharply, leading to an increase in buying sentiment, faster inventory removal of upstream methanol, and a tightening of import arrivals, with a rapid reduction in port inventory. The port market is expected to be strong this week. The current methanol has shown a leading trend in the chemical market. The follow - up needs to focus on the US withdrawal from the Middle East and the sustainability of MTO profits. The basis shows that the spot in Jiangsu is at a discount to the futures. As of March 19, 2026, the social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports decreased, and the tradable supply in coastal areas also decreased. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the average. The main positions are net long, and it is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 oscillating between 3050 - 3200 yuan/ton [5] 2. Long and Short Concerns - **Long factors**: Some devices have stopped or reduced loads, such as Inner Mongolia Heima and Shanxi Zhongxin; the methanol start - up in Iran is at a low level, and methanol imports are expected to continue to shrink in February; the methanol factories in the production areas have actively reduced inventory, and the current inventory is low, with some enterprises even limiting sales; some downstream users continue to stock up before the Spring Festival [6] - **Short factors**: The domestic methanol start - up is at a high level, and there is no shortage of supply; as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream formaldehyde and other industries gradually stop for holidays, weakening the demand for raw materials; the main olefin devices in the port have stopped, significantly weakening the local demand; most downstream enterprises have completed pre - holiday stocking, and the phased demand has weakened [7] 3. Fundamental Data - **Price data**: In the spot market, the price of steam - coal in the Bohai Rim is 688 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port is 379 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 3195 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the futures closing price is 3089 yuan/ton. The basis of Jiangsu - Lunan is - 44 yuan/ton, and the import spread is 106 yuan/ton. The national weighted average start - up rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The inventory in East China ports is 51.07 tons, a decrease of 3.73 tons from last week, and the inventory in South China ports is 31.60 tons, a decrease of 1.66 tons from last week [8] - **Domestic methanol spot price**: The weekly decline in Jiangsu is 3.18%, Lunan remains unchanged, Hebei increases by 11.68%, Inner Mongolia increases by 1.72%, and Fujian decreases by 3.44% [9] - **Methanol basis**: The weekly decline in spot is 3.18%, the weekly decline in futures is 2.92%, and the weekly change in the basis is - 7 [11] - **Methanol production profit by process**: The weekly change in coal - based production profit is - 5, natural gas - based remains at - 40, and coke - oven gas - based increases by 557 [19] - **Domestic methanol enterprise load**: The national methanol load is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week, and the load in the northwest is 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% from last week [21] - **External methanol price and spread**: CFR China decreases by 7.79% this week, CFR Southeast Asia increases by 7.25%, and the spread decreases by 72 [24] - **Methanol import spread**: The weekly decline in spot is 0.16%, the weekly decline in import cost is 7.64%, and the import spread increases by 164 [27] - **Traditional downstream product prices of methanol**: Formaldehyde remains unchanged, dimethyl ether remains unchanged, and acetic acid increases by 12.12% [28] - **Production profit and load of traditional downstream products**: The production profit of formaldehyde decreases by 127, the load increases by 0.01%; the production profit of dimethyl ether decreases by 405, the load increases by 1.45%; the production profit of acetic acid increases by 455, the load decreases by 1.29%; the production profit of MTO increases by 320, the load decreases by 2.27% [32][35][40][45] - **Methanol port inventory**: The inventory in East China ports is 51.07 tons, a decrease of 3.73 tons from last week, and the inventory in South China ports is 31.60 tons, a decrease of 1.66 tons from last week [47] - **Methanol warehouse receipts and effective forecasts**: The warehouse receipts decrease by 12.26%, and the effective forecasts increase by 231.29% [51] - **Methanol balance sheet**: It shows the production, demand, import, inventory, and supply - demand difference of methanol from November 2022 to October 2024 [53] 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic methanol device maintenance**: Multiple enterprises in Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions are in maintenance, with different maintenance start and end times and corresponding production losses [54] - **Foreign methanol device operation**: Some Iranian devices are in the process of restarting or running stably, and devices in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States also have different operating conditions [55] - **Olefin device operation**: Some olefin devices in Northwest, East, Central, Shandong, and Northeast regions are in normal operation, some are in maintenance, and some have uncertain restart times [56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the production loss of domestic methanol due to maintenance and production cuts is less than the output increase from restored production, leading to an overall increase in production [2]. - This week, inland enterprises reduced their inventory. Affected by domestic production and resistance to high prices, the apparent demand for imports weakened significantly. The port inventory continued to decline, and the volume of incoming foreign vessels remained low [2]. - It is expected that the port methanol inventory may continue to decline next week, and the extent of inventory reduction depends on the change in提货量. The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants increased last week, and with the normal operation of restarted and capacity - increased plants, the industry's operating rate is expected to increase slightly [2]. - Due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, the short - term price of methanol is expected to fluctuate sharply. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the impact of geopolitical changes on market sentiment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 3089 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread was 206 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton [2]. - The main contract's open interest was 542,326 lots, a decrease of 9,658 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 3,769 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts was 7,641, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2,430 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 119 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 401 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 555 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 439 euros/ton, a decrease of 1 euro/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 154 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.9 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.01 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 86.05 tons, a decrease of 8.47 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 29.5 tons, a decrease of 2.15 tons [2]. - The import profit of methanol was - 133.78 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47.32 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 1.734 million tons, an increase of 316,400 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 435,000 tons, a decrease of 50,400 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 92.87%, an increase of 2.72 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 42.43%, an increase of 4.83 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.49%, an increase of 1.36 percentage points [2]. - The operating rate of acetic acid was 85.4%, unchanged; the operating rate of MTBE was 69.51%, an increase of 0.57 percentage points [2]. - The operating rate of olefins was 84.08%, unchanged; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 1,092 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 81.94%, an increase of 6.14 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 61.86%, an increase of 4.58 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 74.37%, a decrease of 5.89 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 74.38%, a decrease of 5.89 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of March 25, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 435,000 tons, a decrease of 50,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.39%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 283,900 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.64% [2]. - As of March 25, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.1555 million tons, a decrease of 106,200 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 84,700 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 21,500 tons [2]. - As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 85.57%, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%. The second - phase plant of Yanchang Yulin Zhongmei restarted, and the load of Tianjin Bohua increased [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Under the superposition of multiple positive factors, the methanol market is expected to maintain a strong short - term operation. Inland methanol is expected to remain firm, and the port market is expected to continue to be strong this week. The current methanol has shown a leading trend in the chemical market. Future attention should be paid to whether the US withdraws troops from the Middle East and the sustainability of MTO profits. Once there are signs of the end of the war, the driving logic will change rapidly. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 3085 - 3400 [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Methanol 2605: In terms of fundamentals, with multiple positive factors, the short - term methanol market is expected to be strong. Inland, high profits keep domestic methanol production at a high level, but recent olefin demand has increased significantly, and with the sharp rise of futures, buying sentiment has increased, accelerating the inventory removal of upstream methanol. The expected reduction in imports and the rapid decline of port inventory further support the spot. Traders are generally optimistic about the future, and downstream users are willing to follow high - priced goods. In ports, imports continue to shrink, but the inflow of inland goods to ports slows down the decline of port inventory. If the Jiangsu MTO device restarts and the Middle East geopolitical conflict continues, the port market is expected to remain strong this week. The current methanol has led the chemical market. Future attention should be paid to whether the US withdraws troops from the Middle East and the sustainability of MTO profits. The base difference shows that the spot price in Jiangsu is 3110 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract base difference is - 241, with the spot at a discount to the futures. As of March 19, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports decreased by 5.39 tons to 82.67 tons, and the overall available circulating goods in coastal areas decreased by 5.43 tons to 44.15 tons. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the average line. The main positions are net long, changing from short to long. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 3085 - 3400 [5] 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some devices have stopped or reduced their loads, such as Inner Mongolia Heima and Shanxi Zhongxin; the methanol production in Iran is at a low level, and methanol imports in February are expected to continue to shrink; methanol factories in production areas have actively cleared inventory, and the current inventory is low, with some enterprises even limiting sales; some downstream users continue to stock up before the Spring Festival [6] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and there is no shortage of supply; as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream formaldehyde and other industries gradually stop for holidays, weakening the demand for raw materials; the main olefin devices in ports have stopped, significantly weakening local demand; most downstream users have completed pre - holiday stocking, resulting in a phased weakening of demand [7] 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, the price of steam - coal in the Bohai Rim is 687 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port is 397 US dollars/ton, the import cost is 3348 yuan/ton, CFR Southeast Asia is 557 US dollars/ton, and prices in Shandong, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Fujian have also changed. In the futures market, the futures closing price is 3351 yuan/ton, with 7641 registered warrants and 147 valid forecasts. In terms of the spread structure, the base difference between Jiangsu and Shandong is - 56 yuan/ton, the import spread is - 3 yuan/ton, and there are also changes in other spreads [8] - **Price Changes**: From March 17 to March 23, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu increased by 15.82% to 3295 yuan/ton, the futures price increased by 17.70% to 3351 yuan/ton, and the base difference changed from - 2 to - 56 [9][11] - **Profit Data**: The profit of coal - based methanol production increased from 385 to 543 yuan/ton, the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained at - 40 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol increased from 643 to 661 yuan/ton [19] - **Load Data**: The national weighted average methanol load decreased from 78.71% to 74.90%, and the load in the northwest decreased from 85.09% to 81.54% [21] - **External Price and Spread**: The CFR China price increased by 2.85% to 397 US dollars/ton, the CFR Southeast Asia price increased by 8.80% to 556.5 US dollars/ton, and the spread between them changed from - 125.5 to - 159.5 US dollars/ton [24] - **Import Spread and Profit**: The spot price increased by 12.65% to 3295 yuan/ton, the import cost increased by 2.88% to 3348 yuan/ton, and the import spread changed from - 409 to - 53 yuan/ton [28] - **Traditional Downstream Product Price**: The price of acetic acid increased by 12.50% to 3600 yuan/ton, while the prices of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether remained unchanged [31] - **Downstream Production Profit and Load**: The profit of formaldehyde production decreased from - 280 to - 303 yuan/ton, and the load increased slightly; the profit of dimethyl ether production decreased from 71 to 0 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 8.34% to 9.79%; the profit of acetic acid production increased from 435 to 588 yuan/ton, and the load decreased from 73.61% to 72.32%; the profit of MTO production decreased from - 3104 to - 4544 yuan/ton, and the load decreased from 86.45% to 84.18% [35][38][43][48] - **Port Inventory**: The inventory in East China ports decreased from 54.8 to 51.07 tons, and the inventory in South China ports decreased from 33.26 to 31.6 tons [50] - **Warrants and Forecasts**: The number of methanol warrants decreased by 31.88% to 7641, and the number of valid forecasts remained at 147 [54] - **Balance Sheet**: The report provides the methanol balance sheet from November 2022 to October 2024, including production, demand, import, inventory, and supply - demand differences [56] 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Device Maintenance**: Multiple domestic methanol production enterprises are in the process of maintenance, including Shaanxi Heima, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc., with different maintenance times and losses [57] - **Overseas Device Operation**: Some overseas methanol production devices are in different operation states, such as some in Iran are in the process of restarting, and some in other countries are operating normally or with low starts [58] - **Olefin Device Operation**: Some domestic olefin production devices are in different operation states, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy is in maintenance, and some are operating stably [59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Multiple positive factors are driving the short - term methanol market to maintain a strong trend. Inland, high profits have led to high domestic methanol production, but the increase in olefin demand and the sharp rise of futures have boosted market buying sentiment, accelerating the inventory reduction of upstream methanol. Meanwhile, the expected tightening of imports has led to a rapid decline in port inventories. Traders are optimistic about the future, and downstream buyers are willing to follow high - priced goods, so the inland methanol price is expected to remain firm. In the port area, although imports are shrinking, the inflow of inland goods has slowed down the decline in port inventories. If the MTO plants in Jiangsu restart and the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues, the port market is expected to remain strong next week. Currently, methanol has become the leader in the chemical market, and future attention should be paid to whether the US will withdraw troops from the Middle East and the sustainability of MTO profits [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Weekly Review - Multiple positive factors are driving the short - term methanol market to maintain strong operation. Attention should be paid to the situation in the Middle East and MTO profits [5]. Fundamental Data Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From March 13th to March 20th, the prices of methanol in different domestic regions showed different trends. The price in Jiangsu increased by 7.96%, from 2,825 yuan/ton to 3,050 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong (Lunan) remained unchanged at 2,310 yuan/ton; the price in Hebei increased by 4.27%, from 2,340 yuan/ton to 2,440 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia increased by 7.18%, from 2,160 yuan/ton to 2,315 yuan/ton; the price in Fujian increased by 6.84%, from 2,850 yuan/ton to 3,045 yuan/ton [6]. Methanol Basis - From March 13th to March 20th, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu increased by 7.96%, from 2,825 yuan/ton to 3,050 yuan/ton, and the futures price increased by 11.66%, from 2,805 yuan/ton to 3,132 yuan/ton. The basis decreased from 20 yuan/ton to - 102 yuan/ton [8]. Methanol Production Profits by Different Processes - From March 13th to March 20th, the coal - to - methanol profit increased by 110 yuan/ton, reaching 455 yuan/ton; the natural - gas - to - methanol profit remained at - 40 yuan/ton; the coke - oven - gas - to - methanol profit increased by 512 yuan/ton, reaching 601 yuan/ton [10]. Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - This week, the national methanol load was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% compared with last week's 78.71%. The methanol load in the northwest region was 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% compared with last week's 85.09% [12]. Outer - Market Methanol Prices and Spreads - From March 13th to March 20th, the CFR China price increased by 0.26%, from 381 US dollars/ton to 382 US dollars/ton; the CFR Southeast Asia price increased by 8.80%, from 511.5 US dollars/ton to 556.5 US dollars/ton. The spread between CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia widened from - 130.5 US dollars/ton to - 174.5 US dollars/ton [15]. Methanol Import Spreads - From March 13th to March 20th, the domestic methanol spot price increased by 7.96%, and the import cost increased by 0.10%. The import spread increased from - 391 yuan/ton to - 169 yuan/ton [17]. Traditional Downstream Product Prices of Methanol - From March 13th to March 20th, the price of formaldehyde remained unchanged at 1,070 yuan/ton; the price of dimethyl ether remained unchanged at 3,850 yuan/ton; the price of acetic acid increased by 3.13%, from 3,200 yuan/ton to 3,300 yuan/ton [22]. Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - **Formaldehyde**: The production profit was - 276 yuan/ton, and the load was 30.98%, a slight increase of 0.01% compared with last week [24]. - **Dimethyl Ether**: The production profit was 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 142 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the week, and the load was 9.79%, an increase of 1.45% compared with last week [26]. - **Acetic Acid**: The production profit was 423 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the week, and the load was 72.32%, a decrease of 1.29% compared with last week [31]. MTO Production Profits and Loads - The MTO production profit was - 3,760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 720 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the week, and the MTO/MTP device load was 84.18%, a decrease of 2.27% compared with last week [35]. Methanol Port Inventories - In the East China port, the inventory decreased from 54.8 to 51.07; in the South China port, the inventory decreased from 33.26 to 31.6 [36]. Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - From March 13th to March 20th, the number of methanol warehouse receipts decreased from 11,513 to 7,641, a decrease of 33.63%, and the number of effective forecasts remained unchanged at 147 [41]. Overhaul Conditions Domestic Methanol Device Overhaul - Multiple domestic methanol enterprises are in the process of overhaul, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling, etc., with different overhaul start and end times, raw materials, and annual production capacities [43]. Foreign Methanol Device Operation - Foreign methanol enterprises in different countries have different operation conditions. Some Iranian enterprises are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations, while some enterprises in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally [44]. Olefin Device Operation - Olefin devices in different regions have different operation conditions. Some devices are operating stably, some are in the process of overhaul, and some are expected to be put into production [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is a bullish and volatile trend [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to the continuation of geopolitical conflicts, methanol prices are expected to be bullish. From a fundamental perspective, the domestic methanol market is moderately bullish. With the decreasing expectation of imported methanol from Iran and the increasing valuation premium caused by geopolitical factors, methanol is still driven by supply disruptions, and its single - sided price is expected to be bullish. The upper limit of methanol's valuation is affected by geopolitical factors, and the negative feedback pricing of MTO is weakened, while the lower limit can refer to the break - even line of static MTO profit [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - In the futures market, the closing price of methanol's main contract was 3,182 yuan/ton (up 270 yuan from the previous day), the settlement price was 3,175 yuan/ton (up 246 yuan), the trading volume was 3,080,667 lots (up 398,551 lots), the open interest of the 05 contract was 630,637 lots (up 18,908 lots), the number of warehouse receipts was 8,709 tons (down 2,408 tons), the trading volume was 9,780,619 ten - thousand yuan (up 1,925,413 ten - thousand yuan), the basis was - 37 (down 50), and the spread between MA05 and MA09 was 247 (up 54) [2] - In the spot market, the price in Inner Mongolia was 2,255 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan), the price in northern Shaanxi was 2,330 yuan/ton (up 70 yuan), and the price in Shandong remained unchanged at 2,550 yuan/ton [2] Spot News - In this period, the port methanol market rose significantly. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2,790 to 3,180 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2,800 to 3,200 yuan/ton. Although downstream demand was weak and some warehouse pick - up volumes decreased, the low arrival of foreign vessels and ship shipments from mainstream warehouses led to a decrease in port inventory, supporting the coastal market. Unstable international situations and limited international shipping capacity led to a poor import outlook, strongly boosting the domestic methanol market [4] - In the same period, the inland methanol price also rose significantly. The price in the northern line of Ordos in the main production area ranged from 2,160 to 2,330 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying downstream ranged from 2,505 to 2,555 yuan/ton. The inland market was supported by centralized procurement from some olefin plants and market sentiment, but downstream follow - up was weak due to high prices, so the increase was less than that in the port market [4] - As of March 18, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 126.17 million tons, a decrease of 5.11 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 3.89%) from the previous period. The port inventory continued to decline. In this cycle, 13.1 million tons of foreign vessels were unloaded, all in East China. In Jiangsu, domestic supplies were replenished, and inventory decreased due to stable pick - up supported by ship shipments and re - exports. In Zhejiang, inventory slightly increased due to stable demand and foreign vessel unloading. In South China, inventory in Guangdong and Fujian continued to decline [4][5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of methanol is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer between - 2 and 2, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Methanol: Neutral with a slightly bullish bias [3] - Thermal Coal: Neutral [3] - Domestic Supply: Bearish [3] - Import: Bullish [3] - Downstream Demand: Bullish [3] - Upstream Profit: Bearish [3] - MTO Profit: Bullish [3] - Inventory: Bearish [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side has no new maintenance units this week, and some domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance. Overseas device operating rates are low, and short - term imports are expected to remain low. - Traditional downstream demand is gradually recovering after the Spring Festival, while MTO demand is weak. There are expectations of MTO device restarts. - Affected by geopolitical disturbances, the crude oil price fluctuates greatly, and methanol is in a high - level shock. The port inventory is expected to decline, and methanol is expected to be slightly stronger, with limited downside space [3]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory Supply - **Domestic Supply**: As of the week ending March 12, the national methanol device operating rate was 76.3%, with coal - based methanol at 84.5%, coke - oven gas - based at 55.4%, and natural gas - based at 37.1%. The domestic operating rate has declined, and short - term device changes are small, with some devices having short - stop plans. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the domestic spring maintenance [9][13]. - **Overseas Supply**: Iranian methanol devices have a low operating rate. Some Iranian devices restarted last weekend, but most are still shut down. Attention should be paid to the actual shipping situation. Devices in other countries such as Germany, the Netherlands, and the United States also have some shutdowns or low - load operations [18][19]. Raw Materials - **Coal Price**: Coal prices have recently weakened. Port coal inventories remain high, daily consumption has declined, and the support during the peak season has weakened. Short - term coal prices are expected to remain weakly volatile [25]. - **Methanol Profit**: With the weak operation of coal prices and the rebound of domestic methanol prices, the profits of coal - based methanol devices have strengthened significantly. The profits of natural gas - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol devices have also improved. As of March 10, the profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol was 99 yuan/ton, that of southwest natural gas - based was 100 yuan/ton, and that of Hebei coke - oven gas - based was 380 yuan/ton [32]. Demand - **MTO Demand**: As of March 12, the MTO operating rate was 78.1%, and the operating rate of externally purchased methanol - to - olefins devices was 70.3%, remaining stable. Two coastal MTO devices have not restarted. The profit of East China MTO devices has recently rebounded significantly. There are expectations of MTO device restarts, and attention should be paid to the implementation [43][44]. - **Traditional Downstream Demand**: Traditional downstream demand continued to recover last week, especially the operating rates of formaldehyde and MTBE. Although the profits of traditional downstream industries have been compressed with the rebound of methanol prices, the current profits are relatively higher than last year. Traditional downstream procurement sentiment is slightly better, and the procurement volume is relatively stable. However, inland orders have declined slightly [51][56][66]. Inventory - **Port and Inland Inventory**: Last week, the port inventory was 129.3 million tons, and the port's tradable inventory was 63.6 million tons. Both ports and the inland area have seen inventory declines. With the reduction in imports, the port inventory is still expected to decline, and the inland area is also expected to continue to reduce inventory as traditional demand recovers [76]. - **Downstream Raw Material Inventory**: The raw material inventories of MTO sample enterprises and traditional downstream manufacturers have significantly decreased. Demand is gradually recovering, but high - pressure suppresses the replenishment willingness, and downstream procurement is mainly for rigid needs [83]. Market Structure - **Basis and Calendar Spread**: The spot basis has recently remained stable, restricted by high inventories. However, with the expectation of reduced imports and declining port inventories, the basis is expected to strengthen. The 5 - 9 spread has fallen after a significant increase and is currently in a high - level shock. It is advisable to conduct positive spreads on dips [94]. - **PP/L - 3MA Spread**: The PP/L - 3MA spread has recently rebounded. The olefin end is relatively strong due to the rebound of crude oil prices and the reduction in petrochemical production, while methanol is relatively weak due to high - inventory pressure. The spread is expected to continue to widen in the short term [100]. Balance Sheet The report provides a methanol balance sheet from July 2025 to June 2026, including data on total production, imports, total supply, consumption, MTO demand, traditional demand, total demand, surplus/deficit, year - on - year production growth, and year - on - year consumption growth [105].