瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.08.22」 甲醇市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周国内港口甲醇库存继续累库，价格继续偏弱运行，华东港口至安徽市场倒流空间 已开启，但目前对港口市场提货提振有限；内地甲醇市场弱势下滑，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波 动区间在2070-2095元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间在2295-2325元/吨。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量多于检修、减产涉及产能损失量，整体产量小幅增 加。本周部分企业因前期订单偏少，叠加长约订单提货节奏平缓，整体库存水平小幅攀升。港口 方面，本周甲醇港口库存继续积累，江苏主流库区提货尚可，有转口及江内船发支撑，外轮卸货 供应下，库存波动有限；华南港口进口船只集中低港，下游需求延续平淡，库存明显累库，下周 外轮到港量继续维持高位，虽目前华东港口倒流空间已开启，但对港口市场提货暂无明显提振， 预计港口甲醇库存继续累库。需求方面 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the methanol market and predicts that methanol prices will mainly fluctuate this week. Specifically, MA2601 is expected to fluctuate between 2370 - 2420 yuan/ton. On the mainland, due to the pessimistic sentiment of industry players caused by the macro - environment and the lack of further positive factors in demand, the willingness of long - term contract traders to sell has increased significantly. However, the relatively tight inventory of methanol enterprises in the mainland, especially in production areas, provides some support for prices. In the port area, the significant fluctuations in coking coal and coke have a negative feedback on the methanol futures and spot markets, and the positive factors supporting the market have reversed. Coupled with the expected continuous inventory build - up in ports and the lack of demand from major downstream industries, the port market is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, waiting for positive guidance from policy and news. [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For methanol 2601, the fundamentals show a neutral situation on the mainland and in ports. The basis indicates that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory situation is neutral, with an increase in port inventories. The disk shows a bearish signal as the 20 - day line is downward and the price is below the moving average. The main position shows a bullish signal as the main position is net long but the long positions are decreasing. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 fluctuating between 2370 - 2420 yuan/ton. [4] 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely Bullish Factors**: Some device shutdowns (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya), a decrease in methanol production start - up in Iran, low port inventories, the production of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen since May 16, the planned production of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong in late August, and the external procurement of methanol by CTO plants in the northwest. [6] - **Likely Bearish Factors**: The resumption of previously shut - down devices (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua), a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month, the traditional off - season for formaldehyde, a significant decline in MTBE start - up, a certain profit margin for coal - to - methanol production with active sales, and the accumulation of inventory in some factories in production areas due to continuous poor sales. [7] 3. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: There are price data for various types of methanol in the spot and futures markets, including the prices of ring - Bohai Sea thermal coal, CFR China main port, import costs, etc., as well as price changes and spreads. For example, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased by 3.88% this week, while the futures price increased by 0.67%. [8][9][11] - **Start - up Rate Data**: The weighted average national start - up rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The start - up rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions also decreased. [8] - **Inventory Data**: As of August 14, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 891,100 tons, a cumulative increase of 87,800 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas increased by 72,900 tons to 571,200 tons. [4] - **Profit Data**: The profit of coal - to - methanol production decreased by 77 yuan/ton this week, while the profit of coke - oven gas - to - methanol production increased by 323 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol production remained unchanged. [19] - **Downstream Product Data**: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged this week. The production profit of acetic acid increased, while the production profit of formaldehyde remained at a loss, and the production profit of dimethyl ether remained stable. [29][34][37] 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in a state of maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Ningxia Energy Chemical, etc., with different maintenance start and end times and maintenance losses. [57] - **Overseas Methanol Device Maintenance**: Some overseas methanol production devices are in different states, such as the QAFAC in Qatar having a maintenance period from the end of February to March 16, and the G3 in the United States having an unplanned shutdown until early May. [58] - **Olefin Device Maintenance**: Some domestic olefin production devices are in a state of maintenance or have maintenance plans, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy having a 45 - day maintenance starting from March 15, and China Coal Lin having a maintenance plan in the second quarter. [59]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2390 - 2460 in the short term [7] - Recently, the output of resumed methanol production capacity in China is more than the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, leading to a slight increase in overall production [8] - The inventory of methanol enterprises in the inland area remains low, while the port inventory continues to accumulate. Next week, the port inventory is expected to continue increasing, but the impact of weather on unloading speed needs attention [8] - After the restart of the olefin plant in Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin to full - load operation, the olefin industry's operating rate will increase [8] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2390 and 2460 in the short term [7] - Market review: The domestic port methanol market was slightly weak this week, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2330 - 2400 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2350 - 2380 yuan/ton. The inland market continued to rise, with the price in Ordos North Line ranging from 2090 - 2125 yuan/ton. The downstream Dongying receiving price ranged from 2325 - 2360 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: The overall methanol production in China increased slightly. The inland supply was tight, and enterprise inventory remained low. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and it is expected to keep rising next week. The olefin industry's operating rate will increase after the restart of relevant plants [8] 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the main methanol contract in Zhengzhou fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 2.55% [12] - Inter - period spread: As of August 15, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 96 [16] - Position analysis: Not detailed in the content - Warehouse receipt: As of August 14, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 11168, an increase of 2480 from last week [22] Spot Market - Domestic price: As of August 15, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2095 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.5 yuan/ton from last week [28] - Foreign price: As of August 14, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 266 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 62 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from last week [34] - Basis: As of August 15, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81.5 yuan/ton from last week [38] 3. Industry Chain Analysis Upstream - Coal price: As of August 13, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [41] - Natural gas price: As of August 14, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.85 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.15 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41] Industry - Production and operating rate: As of August 14, China's methanol production was 1863275 tons, an increase of 18050 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 82.40%, a month - on - month increase of 0.97% [44] - Inventory: As of August 13, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 102.18 million tons, an increase of 9.63 million tons from the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 29.56 million tons, an increase of 0.19 million tons from the previous period. The sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 21.94 million tons, a decrease of 2.14 million tons from the previous period [49] - Import: In June 2025, China's methanol import volume was 122.02 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.58%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 537.73 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.68%. As of August 14, the methanol import profit was 42.82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54 yuan/ton from last week [52] Downstream - Operating rate: As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 84.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41% [55] - Profit: As of August 15, the domestic methanol - to - olefin on - disk profit was - 952 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan/ton from last week [58] 4. Option Market Analysis - Not provided in the content

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market shows significant regional differences in expectations, and attention should be paid to whether the arbitrage between the inland and ports is opened. The inland supply increases due to the concentrated resumption of previously shut - down methanol plants, but the tight - balance supply - demand pattern continues. It is expected to fluctuate strongly next week. The supply - demand contradiction in ports is obvious, with concentrated shipments from Iran and the shutdown of large olefin plants in ports. The futures market has some support but limited upward momentum, and the East China methanol market is expected to fluctuate with both rises and falls next week [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review - The domestic methanol market has regional differences. Inland supply increases, but the tight - balance pattern persists. The port is expected to accumulate inventory, and the futures market has support but limited upside [6]. 2. Fundamental Data Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From August 1st to August 8th, the prices in different regions had different changes. Jiangsu decreased by 0.21%, Hebei increased by 1.79%, Inner Mongolia increased by 1.21%, and Fujian decreased by 1.03%. The price in Shandong remained unchanged [7]. Methanol Basis - From August 1st to August 8th, the spot price decreased by 0.21%, the futures price decreased by 0.42%, and the basis increased by 5 [9]. Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - based production profit decreased by 9 yuan/ton, natural - gas - based remained unchanged, and coke - oven - gas - based increased by 334 yuan/ton from August 1st to August 8th [12]. Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90% this week compared with last week, and the northwest load decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [14]. Outer - Market Methanol Price and Spread - From August 1st to August 8th, CFR China decreased by 0.37%, CFR Southeast Asia remained unchanged, and the spread decreased by 1 [17]. Methanol Import Spread - From August 1st to August 8th, the spot price decreased by 0.21%, the import cost decreased by 0.51%, and the import spread increased by 7 [20]. Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - From August 1st to August 8th, the prices of formaldehyde and acetic acid remained unchanged, and dimethyl ether increased by 0.79% [24]. Formaldehyde Production Profit and Load - The formaldehyde production profit decreased by 18 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.90% to 25.42% this week compared with last week [28]. Dimethyl Ether Production Profit and Load - The dimethyl ether production profit decreased by 27 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.82% to 8.88% this week compared with last week [30]. Acetic Acid Production Profit and Load - The acetic acid production profit increased by 3 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.94% to 82.42% this week compared with last week [35]. MTO Production Profit and Load - The MTO production profit increased by 16 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.15% this week compared with last week [39]. Methanol Port Inventory - In the East China port, the inventory increased by 8.60 to 51.08, and in the South China port, it increased by 6.70 to 29.25 [40]. Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - The warehouse receipts increased by 1.66% to 8688, and the valid forecasts remained at 1100 [42]. 3. Maintenance Status Domestic Methanol Plant Maintenance - Multiple domestic enterprises are in maintenance, such as Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. The maintenance periods and losses vary [44]. Overseas Methanol Plant Operation - Overseas plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc. have different operation statuses, including restarting, normal operation, and planned maintenance [45]. Olefin Plant Operation - Olefin plants in different regions have different operation statuses. Some are running stably, some are in maintenance, and some have load - related issues [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of methanol are becoming more polarized, and regional trends are expected to be prominent in the future. The port market is likely to see inventory accumulation this week due to concentrated imports, and weak demand from factors like maintenance of coal - to - olefins plants in Zhejiang and the off - season. It is expected to adjust weakly. The inland market has a healthy supply - demand situation with low enterprise inventories and restarting olefin plants, but is dragged down by the weak port market, and is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock adjustment. Overall, methanol prices are expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating between 2360 - 2420 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of methanol 2509 are polarized. The port market may accumulate inventory this week, and demand is weak. The inland market has healthy supply - demand but is affected by the port. The price is expected to oscillate, with MA2509 in the range of 2360 - 2420 yuan/ton. The basis shows that the spot price in Jiangsu is 2410 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis is 24, with the spot at a premium to the futures. As of August 7, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 80.33 tons, an increase of 15.30 tons from the previous period. The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely to be bullish**: Some devices such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya are shut down. The methanol operation rate in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level. A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has been in production since May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month. CTO factories in the northwest have external procurement needs [6]. - **Likely to be bearish**: Some previously shut - down devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed operation. There are expected to be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operation rate has dropped significantly. Coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively shipping. Some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor shipping [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price data**: In the spot market, the price of动力煤Q5500 (intermediate price) is 665 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port is 272 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2400 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract is 2388 yuan/ton. The basis of Jiangsu - Lunan is - 6 yuan/ton, and the import spread is 12 yuan/ton [8]. - **Operation rate data**: The weighted average national operation rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The operation rate in the northwest is 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% from last week [8]. - **Inventory data**: The inventory in East China ports is 51.08 tons, an increase of 8.60 tons from last week. The inventory in South China ports is 29.25 tons, an increase of 6.70 tons from last week [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic methanol plants**: Many plants in the northwest, north, east, and southwest regions are in maintenance, shutdown, or production - reduction states, including Shaanxi Heima, Ningxia Changyi, etc. [55]. - **Overseas methanol plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or operating at low rates, and some plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are operating normally, while some are in maintenance [56]. - **Olefin plants**: Some olefin plants in the northwest, east, and other regions are in maintenance or operating normally, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy, which is in synchronous maintenance of methanol and olefins, and some plants like Yan'an Energy and Shenhua Yulin are operating stably [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol are becoming more polarized, with regional trends expected to be prominent in the future. The port market is likely to accumulate inventory this week due to concentrated imports, and weak demand may lead to a downward adjustment. The inland market has low inventory and healthy supply - demand fundamentals, but may be affected by the port's weak market and maintain a narrow - range shock adjustment. It is expected that methanol prices will fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating in the range of 2360 - 2410 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: The port market may accumulate inventory, and demand is weak; the inland market has no supply pressure in the short term, and the supply - demand fundamentals are healthy, but it is affected by the port market. The overall assessment is neutral [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2410 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 13, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 65.03 tons, a cumulative increase of 6.32 tons from the previous period; the overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has increased by 4.05 tons to 36.63 tons, which is bullish [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day line is flat, and the price is below the moving average, which is neutral [5]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that methanol prices will fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating in the range of 2360 - 2410 [5]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Some devices are shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; the methanol start - up rate in Iran has decreased, and the port inventory is at a low level; some acetic acid devices have been put into production or are planned to be put into production; CTO enterprises in the northwest still have external procurement needs [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; there are expected to be concentrated ship arrivals at the port in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde industry has entered the off - season, and the MTBE start - up rate has decreased significantly; coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively shipping; some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor shipping [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: The spot price of methanol in various regions has different trends. For example, the price in Jiangsu has decreased by 1.41% week - on - week, while the price in Inner Mongolia has increased by 1.70% week - on - week. The futures closing price has increased by 7 yuan/ton to 2397 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Basis Spread Structure**: The basis spread of various regions and the import basis spread have changed. For example, the basis spread between Jiangsu and Shandong has decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 24 yuan/ton, and the import basis spread has decreased by 8 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton [8]. - **Start - up Rate**: The national weighted average start - up rate of methanol is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The start - up rate in different regions has also decreased to varying degrees [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East and South China ports has increased, and the available and tradable inventory in coastal areas has also increased [8]. - **Production Profit**: The production profits of different methanol production processes are different. For example, the profit of coal - to - methanol has decreased by 21 yuan/ton week - on - week, while the profit of coke oven gas - to - methanol has increased by 334 yuan/ton week - on - week [18]. - **Downstream Product Price and Profit**: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have little change. The production profits and loads of downstream products have also changed slightly [29][33][36][40]. - **MTO Production Profit and Load**: The MTO device production profit has increased by 109 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the load has increased by 0.15% [45]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance**: Many domestic methanol enterprises are in a state of maintenance, shutdown, or reduced load, involving various regions such as the northwest, north, east, and southwest [55]. - **Foreign Methanol Device Operation**: The operation status of foreign methanol devices varies. Some devices in Iran are in the process of restarting, and some devices in other countries are operating normally or at a low start - up rate [56]. - **Olefin Device Operation**: The operation status of domestic olefin devices is also different. Some devices are operating stably, some are shut down for maintenance, and some are expected to be put into production [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the methanol market are becoming more polarized, and regional trends are expected to be prominent in the later stage. In the port market, with concentrated imports expected next week, there is a high probability of inventory accumulation. The shutdown and maintenance of coal - to - olefin plants in Zhejiang and the off - season of the industry will drag down overall demand, so the port market is predicted to be weak. Inland, although methanol production is on the rise, low enterprise inventories mean no short - term supply pressure. The restart of olefin plants and the external procurement demand of northwest CTO enterprises support the inland methanol price. However, affected by the weak port market, the inland methanol price is expected to fluctuate slightly [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - The fundamentals of the methanol market are polarized, with different trends in the port and inland markets. The port market may face inventory accumulation and weak demand, while the inland market has relatively healthy supply - demand fundamentals but is affected by the port's weakness [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From July 25th to August 1st, the prices in different regions showed different trends. The price in Jiangsu decreased by 4.14%, from 2488 yuan/ton to 2385 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong (Lunan) remained unchanged at 2230 yuan/ton; the price in Hebei increased by 0.45%, from 2225 yuan/ton to 2235 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia increased by 0.73%, from 2050 yuan/ton to 2065 yuan/ton; and the price in Fujian decreased by 3.97%, from 2520 yuan/ton to 2420 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2.2 Methanol Spot, Futures, and Basis - From July 25th to August 1st, the spot price decreased by 4.14% (from 2488 yuan/ton to 2385 yuan/ton), the futures price decreased by 5.00% (from 2519 yuan/ton to 2393 yuan/ton), and the basis increased by 23 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - to - methanol profit decreased by 41 yuan/ton from July 25th to August 1st; natural gas - to - methanol profit remained at - 120 yuan/ton; and coke oven gas - to - methanol profit decreased by 334 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% from last week to this week, from 78.71% to 74.90%. The load in the northwest region decreased by 3.55%, from 85.09% to 81.54% [15]. 3.2.5 Outer - market Methanol Price and Spread - From July 25th to August 1st, the CFR China price decreased by 3.21% (from 280 dollars/ton to 271 dollars/ton), the CFR Southeast Asia price remained unchanged, and the spread between CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia widened by 9 dollars/ton [18]. 3.2.6 Methanol Import Spread - From July 25th to August 1st, the spot price decreased by 4.14%, the import cost decreased by 2.98%, and the import spread decreased by 29 yuan/ton [21]. 3.2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Price - From July 25th to August 1st, the prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged [28]. 3.2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde: The production profit decreased by 4 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.90% [29]. - Dimethyl ether: The production profit decreased by 14 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.82% [31]. - Acetic acid: The production profit increased by 57 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.94% [36]. 3.2.9 MTO Production Profit and Load - The MTO production profit increased (from - 1262 yuan/ton to - 932 yuan/ton), and the MTO/MTP device load in the east China slightly increased [40]. 3.2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - In the east China port, the inventory increased from 41.67 to 42.48; in the south China port, the inventory increased from 17.04 to 22.55 [41]. 3.2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - From July 25th to August 1st, the warehouse receipts decreased by 15.67% (from 10134 to 8546), and the effective forecasts remained at 0 [45]. 3.3 Maintenance Status 3.3.1 Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, with different start and end times, raw materials, and production losses. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat (100,000 - ton annual capacity, coke oven gas) started maintenance in early November 2024, and the end time is to be determined, with a weekly production loss of 1950 tons [48]. 3.3.2 Overseas Methanol Device Operation - Some overseas methanol plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc. have different operation statuses. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have restored one unit, but it needs to be verified; Marjan in Iran is in the process of restarting and recovering in mid - March [49]. 3.3.3 Olefin Device Operation - Many domestic olefin plants have different operation statuses. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants stopped for maintenance on March 15th, expected to last for 45 days; Ningbo Fude is operating smoothly [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2430 in the short - term [7] - The average price of the domestic port methanol market rose this week, showing a post - decline volatile consolidation trend. The inland methanol market mainly increased. The upstream enterprises raised prices due to factors such as increased external procurement by northwest olefin plants, some device overhauls, and low enterprise inventories, and downstream buyers followed passively [8] - The output of restored domestic methanol production capacity this week was more than the loss of overhauled and reduced production capacity, with a slight increase in overall output. The inventory of inland enterprises decreased slightly this week, but the inventory may increase in some regions due to device restoration and load increase. The port methanol inventory continued to accumulate this week, mainly in the South China region. The inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the short - term, but the impact of weather on unloading speed needs attention [8] - In terms of demand, after the restart of Zhongmei Mengda olefin enterprise, its load is increasing. Zhejiang Xingxing stopped production in the middle of the week. After hedging, the olefin industry's start - up rate increased slightly. There is still room for the olefin industry's start - up rate to rise [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2430 in the short - term [7] - Market review: The average price of the domestic port methanol market rose this week, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2370 - 2500 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2380 - 2490 yuan/ton. The inland market mainly increased, with the price in the northern line of Erdos ranging from 2025 - 2060 yuan/ton and the receiving price in Dongying from 2295 - 2305 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: The overall methanol output increased slightly. The inland enterprise inventory decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate, mainly in the South China region. The olefin industry's start - up rate increased slightly, and there is still room for growth [8] 3.2. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a - 5% decline [11] - Inter - delivery spread: As of August 1, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 92 [16] - Position analysis: Not provided in the content - Warehouse receipts: As of August 1, there were 8546 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 1588 from last week [22] 3.3. Spot Market - Domestic spot price: As of August 1, the mainstream price in Taicang, East China was 2395 yuan/ton, a decrease of 92.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia, Northwest China was 2062.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 332.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan/ton from last week [28] - Foreign spot price: As of July 31, the CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 272 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main Chinese port was 61 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13 US dollars/ton from last week [34] - Basis: As of August 1, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 2 yuan/ton, an increase of 33.5 yuan/ton from last week [37] 3.4. Upstream Situation - Coal and natural gas prices: As of July 30, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 665 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of July 31, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.1 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.02 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41] 3.5. Industry Situation - Production and capacity utilization: As of July 31, China's methanol production was 1,930,125 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 85.36%, a 1.64% increase from the previous week [44] - Inventory: As of July 30, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 808,400 tons, an increase of 82,600 tons from the previous data. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 324,500 tons, a decrease of 15,300 tons from the previous period, and the order backlog of sample enterprises was 230,700 tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons from the previous period [49] - Import volume and profit: In June 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.2202 million tons, a 5.58% decrease from the previous week. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.3773 million tons, a 14.68% year - on - year decrease. As of July 31, the methanol import profit was 21.7 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.5 yuan/ton from last week [52] 3.6. Downstream Situation - Start - up rate: As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 86.39%, a 0.32% increase from the previous week [55] - Disk profit: As of August 1, the domestic methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 881 yuan/ton, an increase of 216 yuan/ton from last week [59]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall methanol production decreased slightly last week as the loss of production capacity due to domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts exceeded the output of restored production capacity. The overall inventory showed a downward trend as some olefin plants consumed the previously accumulated methanol inventory after resumption, but the methanol port inventory continued to increase. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2430 - 2500 in the short - term [2][3]. - The overall inventory of methanol showed a downward trend last week, but the port inventory continued to increase. The olefin industry's overall start - up increased slightly last week, and the short - term overall start - up rate is expected to increase slightly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2457 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of methanol was - 79 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 660,678 lots, an increase of 10,223 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 111,147 lots, an increase of 4086 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 10,344, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2390 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1985 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 405 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 67 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 275 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 330 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 223 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 55 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.32 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.25 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 63.4 tons, an increase of 6.35 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 15.62 tons, an increase of 0.78 tons. The import profit of methanol was 3.44 yuan/ton, down 7.04 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume was 122.02 tons, a decrease of 7.21 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 352,300 tons, a decrease of 4600 tons. The methanol enterprise start - up rate was 82.69%, down 2.06 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of formaldehyde was 43.65%, down 1.59 percentage points; the start - up rate of acetic acid was 90.59%, down 3.32 percentage points; the start - up rate of dimethyl ether was 5.19%, unchanged; the start - up rate of MTBE was 67.63%, up 0.77 percentage points. The start - up rate of olefins was 85.1%, down 0.05 percentage points. The methanol - to - olefins disk profit was - 1003 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 14.65%, down 7.99 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 23.16%, up 0.39 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options for methanol was 18.99%, up 3.43 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of July 16, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.23 tons, a decrease of 0.46 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.28%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 24.31 tons, an increase of 2.19 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 9.89% [2]. - As of July 16, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 79.02 tons, an increase of 7.13 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China and South China increased by 6.35 tons and 0.78 tons respectively [2]. - As of July 17, as of July 16, 2025 (the 29th week), the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 3.23 tons, a decrease of 0.05 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59% [2]. 3.8 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the inventory of Longzhong enterprises and ports on Wednesday [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term overall methanol industry's overall开工率 is expected to increase slightly, and the MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2450 yuan/ton [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2411 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 71 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 650455 lots, down 19282 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 115233 lots, up 28083 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 10344, up 1800 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2390 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1985 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan; the East - Northwest price difference is 405 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 21 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan; CFR China Main Port is 273 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars; CFR Southeast Asia is 330 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars; FOB Rotterdam is 222 euros/ton, down 14 euros; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price difference is - 57 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.51 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.05 dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 63.4 tons, up 6.35 tons; in South China ports, it is 15.62 tons, up 0.78 tons; the methanol import profit is 10.48 yuan/ton, up 14.54 yuan; the monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, up 50.46 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises is 352300 tons, down 4600 tons; the methanol enterprise's operating rate is 82.69%, down 2.06% [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 43.65%, down 1.59%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.19%, unchanged; the acetic acid operating rate is 90.59%, down 3.32%; the MTBE operating rate is 67.63%, up 0.77%; the olefin operating rate is 85.1%, down 0.05%; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 942 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 22.64%, up 1.28%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.78%, up 0.29%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 15.56%, up 0.72%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 15.56%, up 0.72% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of July 16, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.23 tons, down 0.46 tons, a 1.28% decrease; the orders to be delivered were 24.31 tons, up 2.19 tons, a 9.89% increase; the total port inventory was 79.02 tons, up 7.13 tons; as of July 17, the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 3.23 tons, down 0.05 tons, a 1.59% decrease [2] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - Recently, the overall methanol production has decreased slightly. The inventory of inland enterprises has shown differences, with the overall inventory showing a downward trend. The port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the downstream demand has been weak [2] 3.9 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [2]