研究报告 甲醇周报 基本面依旧偏弱，甲醇向好驱动不足 华龙期货投资咨询部 能化研究员：宋鹏 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 证监许可【2012】1087 号 摘要： 投资咨询业务资格： 上周，甲醇供需延续弱势，甲醇期货继续下跌，至周五下午 收盘，甲醇加权收于 2036 元/吨，较前一周下跌 1.97%。 【基本面】 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 上周，国内甲醇装置复产多于检修，甲醇产量再次上升，供 给端支撑依旧乏力。上周甲醇下游烯烃开工率小幅上升，甲醇下 游需求总体平稳。库存方面，上周甲醇样本生产企业库存下降， 企业待发订单量上升，显示甲醇下游刚需仍在。上周港口甲醇在 刚需及货源倒流内地的支撑下，港口甲醇库存下降较为明显，但 总体仍在高位，港口甲醇库存对价格仍形成压力。利润方面，随 着甲醇现货价格持续下降，上周甲醇企业利润继续下滑。综合来 看，甲醇基本面依旧偏弱，甲醇现货价仍然弱势。 【后市展望】 后续来看，甲醇 ...

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the methanol industry. Core Viewpoints - Due to lackluster demand and persistent supply pressure, the domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate this week. Inland, the market will likely remain in a stalemate, while ports may experience a bottom - strong oscillation, waiting for a rebound opportunity. Overall, methanol prices are expected to be weak and fluctuate, with MA2601 operating in the range of 1990 - 2055 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The report predicts that methanol prices will be weak and fluctuate this week. MA2601 will operate between 1990 - 2055. The inland market will be in a stalemate, and the port market may be bottom - strong oscillating [5]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Some domestic devices are shut down, Iranian methanol production has decreased, port inventories are low, new acetic acid devices are put into production, and northwest CTO plants purchase methanol externally [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation, there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the off - season, MTBE operation rate has declined, coal - to - methanol has profit and is actively selling, and some producers' inventories are accumulating [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price**: As of November 20, 2025, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2020 yuan/ton, with a 01 - contract basis of 4, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The futures closing price is 2016 yuan/ton [5][8]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 124.39 million tons, a decrease of 3.51 million tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 4.24 million tons to 72.35 million tons [5]. - **Operation Rate**: The national weighted average operation rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The operation rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have all declined [8]. - **Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profit is - 63 yuan/ton, natural gas - to - methanol profit is - 40 yuan/ton, and coke oven gas - to - methanol profit is 113 yuan/ton [20]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have remained stable this week. The production profits of dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTO have increased, while the production profit of formaldehyde has decreased slightly [30][34][37][42][47]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Devices**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc., with different maintenance start and end times and losses [58]. - **Overseas Devices**: Some Iranian methanol devices are in the process of restarting or operating at a low rate. Some devices in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc., are operating normally, and some devices in Qatar are under maintenance [59]. - **Olefin Devices**: Some domestic MTO/MTP devices are operating stably, some are under maintenance, and some have plans for future maintenance or production increase [60].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-20甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：需求暂无亮点以及供应压力犹存，预计本周国内甲醇市场震荡整理为主。内地方面，产区尤其是内蒙北线 甲醇工厂库存紧张，加之当前价格整体处于底部空间，多数贸易商做空谨慎对价格有支撑作用。但同时，内地甲醇开工 处于高位，区域间货源流通活跃，进口货源倒流入鲁南外甚至部分流入鲁北，供应仍然充裕，但销区需求支撑一般，贸 易商暂未有持货意愿，预计本周内地行情僵持整理。港口方面，基本面来看，暂时注入海外供应减量的锚点，市场心态 有所转变，但实质上缺乏反转上行的支撑条件，预计本周港口甲醇市场或底部偏强震荡等待反弹契机，关注伊朗装置 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-19甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 近期多空分析 利多： 1.部分装置停车：榆林凯越、新疆新业等。 2.伊朗甲醇开工降低；港口库存处于低位。 3.荆门60万吨/年醋酸装置已于5月16日出产品；新疆中和合众60万吨/年醋酸本月下旬 有投产计划。 4.西北CTO工厂甲醇外采。 利空： 1.前期停车装置恢复：内蒙古东华等。 1、基本面：需求暂无亮点以及供应压力犹存，预计本周国内甲醇市场震荡整理为主。内地方面，产区尤其是内蒙北线 甲醇工厂库存紧张，加之当前价格整体处于底部空间，多数贸易商做空谨慎对价格有支撑作用。但同时，内地甲醇开工 处于高位，区域间货源流通活跃， ...

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 甲醇周报 （11.10 -11.14 ） 4 观点与策略 甲醇周评：需求暂无亮点以及供应压力犹存，预计下周国内甲醇市场震荡整理为主。内地方面，产区尤 其是内蒙北线甲醇工厂库存紧张，加之当前价格整体处于底部空间，多数贸易商做空谨慎对价格有支撑作 用。但同时，内地甲醇开工处于高位，区域间货源流通活跃，进口货源倒流入鲁南外甚至部分流入鲁北，供 应仍然充裕，但销区需求支撑一般，贸易商暂未有持货意愿，预计下周内地行情僵持整理。港口方面，基本 面来看，暂时注入海外供应减量的锚点，市场心态有所转变，但实质上缺乏反转上行的支撑条件，预计下周 港口甲醇市场或底部偏强震荡等待反弹契机，关注伊朗装置检修实际落地及海外甲醇的成交情况。 国内甲醇现 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - This week, the port methanol market showed weak fluctuations, while the inland methanol market stopped falling and rose slightly. The price increase was limited due to the continuous back - flow of port goods and the cautious attitude of the market. In the near future, the overall domestic methanol production has decreased. The inventory of upstream and mid - stream enterprises has declined, while the port inventory has accumulated. The olefin industry's operating rate has continued to decline and is expected to remain stable next week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2000 - 2100 in the short term [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The port methanol market was weakly volatile this week, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2040 - 2110 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2040 - 2120 yuan/ton. Inland methanol prices stopped falling and rose slightly, with the price in Ordos North Line ranging from 2060 - 2090 yuan/ton and the receiving price in Dongying from 2185 - 2190 yuan/ton. The price increase was limited due to the back - flow of port goods [7] - **Market Outlook**: The domestic methanol production has decreased as the loss of production capacity from maintenance and production cuts exceeds the output from capacity recovery. The inventory of upstream and mid - stream enterprises has decreased, while the port inventory has accumulated. The olefin industry's operating rate has declined and is expected to remain stable next week [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2000 - 2100 in the short term [7] 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 2.7% [11] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of November 14, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 108 [13] - **Position Analysis**: As of November 13, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 11,709, an increase of 795 compared with last week [22] 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of November 13, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2077.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1992.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.5 yuan/ton from last week [26] - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of November 13, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 242 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 80 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from last week [31] - **Basis**: As of November 13, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 25.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton from last week [35] 3.4 Industrial Chain Analysis - **Upstream**: As of November 12, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 700 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of November 13, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.59 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.27 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [39] - **Industry**: As of November 13, China's methanol production was 1,976,025 tons, a decrease of 12,880 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 87.08%, a decrease of 0.65% from the previous week. As of November 12, the inventory of sample methanol production enterprises was 369,300 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons from the previous period; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 245,400 tons, an increase of 24,300 tons from the previous period. The total port inventory of methanol was 1.5436 million tons, an increase of 56,500 tons from the previous data. In September 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.4269 million tons, a decrease of 18.92% from the previous month; from January to September 2025, the cumulative imports were 9.6667 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.94%. As of November 13, the methanol import profit was - 16.96 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.39 yuan/ton from last week [42][47][50] - **Downstream**: As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 90.24%, a decrease of 0.27% from the previous week. As of November 14, the domestic methanol - to - olefin paper profit was - 491 yuan/ton, an increase of 181 yuan/ton from last week [53][56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, domestic methanol is expected to continue its weak operation under the expectation of a weakening fundamental situation. Inland, multiple olefin plants have maintenance plans in November, traditional downstream acetic acid has low operating rates, and a large methanol - to - hydrogen plant in northern Shandong has stopped for maintenance, resulting in significant negative impacts on demand. Currently, domestic methanol operating rates are at a high level, and upstream methanol factories still focus on sales with low inventories. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease in the short term. Considering that the current methanol price is at a low level, cautious short - selling by traders provides support for the bottom price, so the decline is expected to be limited. In ports, under the suppression of the bearish atmosphere of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventories, the port methanol market is expected to continue to decline weakly next week. Attention should be paid to the subsequent impact of sanctions, Iranian shipments, and the start - up of coastal MTO plants. [5] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Review - The domestic methanol market is expected to remain weak in the short term due to weakening fundamentals, with limited decline due to price support at the bottom. The port market is also expected to decline weakly under the influence of high supply expectations and high inventories. [5] 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - The prices of methanol in different regions in China showed varying degrees of decline this week. For example, the price in Jiangsu dropped by 3.11% from 2,157 yuan/ton on October 31st to 2,090 yuan/ton on November 7th, and the price in Hebei decreased by 3.94% from 2,155 yuan/ton to 2,070 yuan/ton. [6] 3.2.2 Methanol Basis - The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu dropped by 3.11% from 2,157 yuan/ton on October 31st to 2,090 yuan/ton on November 7th, and the futures price decreased by 3.12% from 2,180 yuan/ton to 2,112 yuan/ton. The basis showed a change of 1 yuan/ton. [8] 3.2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Different Processes - Coal - to - methanol production profit decreased from 130 yuan/ton on October 31st to - 36 yuan/ton on November 7th, with a weekly decline of 166 yuan/ton. The profit of natural - gas - to - methanol remained at - 40 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - to - methanol decreased from 305 yuan/ton to 106 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 323 yuan/ton. [10] 3.2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased from 78.71% last week to 74.90% this week, a decrease of 3.81%. The load in the northwest region decreased from 85.09% to 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55%. [12] 3.2.5 Outer - Market Methanol Price and Spread - The CFR China price decreased from 251 US dollars/ton on October 31st to 246 US dollars/ton on November 7th, a decrease of 1.99%. The CFR Southeast Asia price decreased from 323.5 US dollars/ton to 322.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.31%. The spread between them changed from - 72.5 US dollars/ton to - 76.5 US dollars/ton. [15] 3.2.6 Methanol Import Spread - The import cost of methanol decreased from 2,208 yuan/ton on October 31st to 2,165 yuan/ton on November 7th, a decrease of 1.96%. The import spread changed from - 51 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton. [18] 3.2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged this week, with a weekly change of 0.00%. [24] 3.2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde production profit increased from - 149 yuan/ton to - 111 yuan/ton, and the load increased slightly from 30.97% to 30.98%. Dimethyl ether production profit increased from 490 yuan/ton to 611 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 8.34% to 9.79%. Acetic acid production profit increased from 214 yuan/ton to 251 yuan/ton, and the load decreased from 73.61% to 72.32%. [25][27][32] 3.2.9 MTO Production Profit and Load - MTO production profit increased from - 202 yuan/ton to 214 yuan/ton, and the MTO load decreased from 86.45% to 84.18%. [36] 3.2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - In the East China port, the inventory increased from 78.18 to 78.8, an increase of 0.62. In the South China port, the inventory decreased from 50.11 to 49.81, a decrease of 0.30. [37] 3.2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - The number of methanol warehouse receipts decreased from 11,837 on October 31st to 10,914 on November 7th, a decrease of 7.80%. The valid forecasts remained at 0, with a change of 0.00%. [41] 3.3 Maintenance Status 3.3.1 Domestic Methanol Plant Maintenance - Multiple domestic methanol plants are under maintenance or have maintenance plans. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat with a capacity of 100,000 tons has been under maintenance since early November, and Qinghai Zhonghao with a capacity of 600,000 tons has been under maintenance since October 23, 2024, until the end of March 2025. [43] 3.3.2 Overseas Methanol Plant Operation - Overseas methanol plants have different operating conditions. Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or recovery, while some plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are operating normally. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have one unit restored, but it needs verification. [44] 3.3.3 Olefin Plant Operation - Many olefin plants have different operating conditions. Some are running smoothly, some are under maintenance, and some have future production or maintenance plans. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants stopped for maintenance on March 15, expected to last for 45 days. [45]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price of raw coal is firm, the auction price of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest has declined, and the profit of coal - to - methanol is around 390 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol supply is continuously abundant with high and stable operating rates. The US dollar price has accelerated its decline, the import parity has widened, and the overseas operating rate has returned to a high level. The MTO device operating rate has rebounded, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly. Overall, due to high inventory pressure, methanol will continue its downward trend [4]. Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Raw Coal Situation**: As of November 5, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 71%, and in Yulin was 44%. Coal mines resumed production, and the daily coal output in both regions was around 4 million tons. The demand was strong, and the pit - mouth price rose continuously [4]. - **Supply Side**: The price of raw coal was firm, the auction price of northwest mainstream methanol enterprises fell, and the profit of coal - to - methanol was around 390 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol operating rate was high and stable, and the supply was continuously abundant [4]. - **Import Side**: The US dollar price accelerated its decline, the import parity widened. Iran's production was fully normal, the non - Iranian operating rate increased slightly, and the overseas operating rate returned to a high level. The China - Europe price difference narrowed, and the Southeast Asian re - export window closed. Iran had loaded 160,000 tons in November, and the bid - winning situation of Iran's concessionary bidding improved, with abundant non - Iranian supplies [4]. - **Demand Side**: The MTO device operating rate rebounded. Some MTO devices such as Xingxing, Nanjing Chengzhi, Jiangsu Sierbang, Tianjin Bohua, and Ningbo Fude were operating at different loads. The downstream demand was stable [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: The port inventory accumulation cycle ended, and the basis was strong; the inventory of inland enterprises fluctuated slightly. The international device operating rate increased, and imports recovered. The port spot liquidity was sufficient, but the overall trading was light, and the spot basis was stable [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short at high levels without chasing the short position; for arbitrage, wait and see; for over - the - counter trading, sell call options [4]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of November 6, the overall domestic methanol device operating load was 76.09%, a 0.31 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 1.06 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load was 68.13%, a 0.43 - percentage - point increase from last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: From October 25 to October 31, 2025, the international methanol production was 1,030,859 tons, a decrease of 39,050 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 70.66%, a 2.68% decrease. There were changes in some devices such as the restart of Iran's Marjan, the resumption of the US Nat after a short - stop, the breakdown of Malaysia's Petronas' No. 1 and No. 3 devices, and the restart of a Libyan device after years of shutdown [5]. - **Supply - Import**: As of November 5, 2025, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 387,000 tons, including 345,800 tons of foreign vessels and 41,200 tons of domestic vessels [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of November 6, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 82.97%, a 0.79 - percentage - point decrease from last week. The national olefin device operating rate was 90.6%, with slight adjustments in the load of some enterprises [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 5.79%, a 0.52% decrease from last week. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate was 69.61%, and the formaldehyde operating rate was 41.75%, an increase from last week [5]. - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 23,900 tons, a decrease of 8,500 tons from the previous statistical date, a 26.23% decrease [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprise**: The production enterprise inventory was 386,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons from the previous period. The sample enterprise order backlog was 221,100 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons from the previous period, a 2.57% increase [5]. - **Inventory - Port**: As of November 5, 2025, the total port inventory was 1,517,100 tons, an increase of 10,600 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 24,200 tons, and that in South China decreased by 13,600 tons [5]. - **Valuation**: The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was around 390 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi was 322 yuan/ton. The port - to - northern line price difference was 110 yuan/ton, and the port - to - northern Shandong price difference was - 80 yuan/ton. The MTO loss narrowed, and the basis was stable [5]. - **Spot Price**: The price in Taicang was 2,100 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan), and in the northern line was 1,990 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2080 - 2150 in the short term [7] - The domestic methanol market continued to decline this week, with both port and inland prices falling. The market sentiment was significantly impacted by the sharp decline in the futures market and the continuous back - flow of port supplies [8] - Recently, the output loss from domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts is less than the output from restored production capacity, leading to an overall increase in production. The inventory of enterprises increased slightly, and the port inventory accumulated slightly [8] - The operating rate of the olefin industry continued to decline this week, and it may decline slightly in the short term after the hedging of expected load changes of enterprises in different regions [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2080 - 2150 in the short term [7] - Market review: The port methanol market continued to decline this week, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2050 - 2200 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2080 - 2190 yuan/ton. Inland methanol prices also continued to decline. The futures market declined significantly, and the market sentiment was impacted [8] - Market outlook: The overall domestic methanol production increased. The enterprise inventory increased slightly, the port inventory accumulated slightly, and the olefin industry operating rate continued to decline and may decline slightly in the short term [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - Futures price: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 3.12% [12] - Inter - period spread: As of November 7, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 101 [16] - Position analysis: As of November 7, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 10,914, a decrease of 923 compared to last week [25] 3.2.2 Spot Market - Domestic spot price: As of November 6, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2087.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82.5 yuan/ton compared to last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared to last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 107.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [31] - Foreign spot price: As of November 6, the CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 244 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars/ton compared to last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main Chinese port was 79 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13 US dollars/ton compared to last week [37] - Basis: As of November 6, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 37.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [41] 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis 3.3.1 Upstream - Coal and natural gas prices: As of November 5, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 695 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to last week. As of November 6, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.41 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.35 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [44] 3.3.2 Industry - Production and operating rate: As of November 6, China's methanol production was 1,992,055 tons, an increase of 26,860 tons compared to last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 87.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.36% [47] - Inventory: As of November 5, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 386,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.75%; the sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 221,100 tons, an increase of 5500 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.57%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1,517,100 tons, an increase of 10,600 tons compared to the previous data. The inventory in East China increased, while that in South China decreased [52] - Import volume and profit: In September 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.4269 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.92%; from January to September 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 9.6667 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.94%. As of November 5, the methanol import profit was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [55] 3.3.3 Downstream - Operating rate: As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 90.60%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37%. The olefin industry operating rate continued to decline [58] - Profit: As of November 7, the domestic methanol - to - olefin on - screen profit was - 672 yuan/ton, a decrease of 127 yuan/ton compared to last week [61] 3.4 Options Market Analysis - Not provided in the content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the expected weakening of the fundamentals, the domestic methanol market is expected to continue its weak performance in the short term. Inland, multiple olefin plants have maintenance plans in November, the traditional downstream acetic acid plant has low operating rates, and a large methanol-to-hydrogen plant in northern Shandong has shut down for maintenance, resulting in significant negative impacts on the demand side. Currently, domestic methanol operating rates are at a high level, and upstream methanol plants still maintain low inventories and focus on sales. Overall, the supply-demand contradiction is difficult to ease in the short term. Considering that the current methanol price is at a low level, cautious short - selling by traders provides support for the bottom price, and the decline is expected to be limited. In the port area, under the suppression of the bearish sentiment of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventories, the port methanol market is expected to continue its weak decline this week. Attention should be paid to the follow - up impact of sanctions, Iranian shipments, and the operating rates of coastal MTO plants. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2090 - 2150 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Inland and port methanol markets face different supply - demand situations. Inland has demand - side pressures, while ports are affected by high supply expectations and inventories. The overall market is expected to be weak, but the decline may be limited due to price support [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2115 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 10, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, which is a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports is 126.61 tons, with a slight decrease of 1.68 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) has decreased by 3.28 tons to 80.55 tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [4]. - **Expectation**: The methanol price is expected to oscillate this week, with MA2601 ranging from 2090 - 2150 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Some plants such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have shut down; the methanol operating rate in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into operation this month; northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Previously shut - down plants such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production; there are expected to be concentrated vessel arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the operating rate of MTBE has significantly declined; coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and is currently actively selling; some plants in the production area have accumulated inventories due to continuous poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, the price of steam - coal in the Bohai Rim region remains unchanged at 694 yuan/ton, the CFR price at the main port in China has decreased by 2 US dollars/ton to 247 US dollars/ton, and the import cost has decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 2174 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the futures closing price has decreased by 16 yuan/ton to 2125 yuan/ton, and the number of registered warrants has decreased by 305 to 10854 [8]. - **Spread Structure**: The basis has increased by 14 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton, and the import spread has decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 49 yuan/ton [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The weighted average national operating rate has decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, with significant decreases in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions [8]. - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory in East China ports has decreased by 0.53 tons to 78.18 tons, while the inventory in South China ports has increased by 1.84 tons to 50.11 tons [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Multiple domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Heima, Qinghai Zhonghao, and others, with different maintenance start and end dates and varying impacts on production [57]. - **Overseas Plants**: Some overseas methanol plants, especially those in Iran, are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have restarted one unit, and Marjan is in the process of restarting in mid - March [58]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants are also under maintenance or have production adjustments. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants have been shut down for maintenance since March 15, and the restart time is expected to be 45 days later [59].