交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-02-25甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2605： 1、基本面：从供应来看，国内甲醇装置整体开工仍处于相对高位，伊朗地区甲醇装置开工偏低，进口到港量存在收缩 预期，沿海地区供应压力有限，但内地企业供应仍较为充裕；从需求来看，沿海部分烯烃装置仍处停车状态，下游季节 性需求疲软，节后终端需求难以快速修复，整体刚需表现偏弱；另外库存是影响甲醇市场走势的关键因素，内地企业在 节前通过预售排库转移部分库存压力，但下游接货后消化缓慢，节后采购需求仍显弱势，沿海地区则因进口缩量支撑， 库存去库缓慢但仍维持相对高位。目前甲醇市场缺乏明确驱动，内地受制于供需偏松格局，价格上行乏力，而沿海受 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the port methanol market fluctuated narrowly, while the inland methanol price rose slightly. The pre - holiday inventory clearance work of enterprises was successfully completed, and the market was mainly focused on pre - selling holiday and post - holiday orders. Some local markets showed signs of bottoming out and warming up [7]. - Recently, the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts in the domestic methanol industry is more than the output of restored production capacity, resulting in a decrease in overall production. The pre - holiday inventory clearance and pre - selling of goods in the inland area were carried out smoothly, and most enterprises currently have no inventory and are in a situation of queuing for loading. It is expected that the inventory of inland production enterprises will increase during the holiday. The port methanol inventory increased slightly this week, and it may rise steadily during the Spring Festival. The domestic methanol - to - olefin operating rate is expected to increase slightly next week [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - by - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the port methanol market fluctuated narrowly. The price range in Jiangsu was 2170 - 2240 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong, it was 2200 - 2230 yuan/ton. The inland methanol price rose slightly, with the price range in the northern line of Ordos in the main production area being 1805 - 1873 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying being 2180 - 2190 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic methanol production will decrease due to more production capacity loss from maintenance and cuts. The inland inventory decreased this week but is expected to increase during the holiday. The port inventory increased slightly this week and may rise steadily during the Spring Festival. The domestic methanol - to - olefin operating rate is expected to increase slightly next week [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Pay attention to the external macro - situation, geopolitical situation, and crude oil prices during the long holiday [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a decline of 2.5% [11]. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of February 13, the MA 5 - 9 spread was - 32 [15]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: As of February 12, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 8032, an increase of 50 compared with last week [23]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of February 12, the mainstream price in Taicang, East China was 2212.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5 yuan/ton compared with last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia, Northwest China was 1850 yuan/ton, an increase of 52.5 yuan/ton compared with last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 362.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton compared with last week [29]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of February 12, the CFR price of methanol at the main port in China was 264 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton compared with last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main port in China was 59 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton compared with last week [34]. - **Basis**: As of February 12, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 18.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.5 yuan/ton compared with last week [38]. 3.4 Industrial Chain - **Upstream**: As of February 11, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of February 12, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.23 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.19 US dollars/million British thermal units compared with last week [41]. - **Industry**: As of February 12, China's methanol production was 2,056,795 tons, a decrease of 240 tons compared with last week; the device capacity utilization rate was 92.07%, a decrease of 0.01% compared with the previous week. As of February 11, the inventory of sample methanol production enterprises in China was 340,300 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 7.61% compared with the previous period; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 315,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons compared with the previous period, an increase of 9.75% compared with the previous period. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4322 million tons, an increase of 21,200 tons compared with the previous data. In 2025, the cumulative import volume of methanol in China from January to December was 14.4054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75%. As of February 12, the methanol import profit was - 15.97 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton compared with last week [44][50][55]. - **Downstream**: As of February 12, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 85.16%, an increase of 1.34% compared with the previous week. As of February 13, the domestic methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 796 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton compared with last week [58][62].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate within a range this week as the holiday approaches. The inland market is entering the pre - holiday rest period, with demand shrinking and supply remaining sufficient. The port market is expected to oscillate at the bottom before the festival, and it is recommended to reduce risk exposure. The price of MA2605 is expected to fluctuate between 2210 - 2270 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of methanol 2605 suggest that the inland methanol market is in a pre - holiday rest period. Demand from traditional downstream devices like formaldehyde is decreasing, and supply is sufficient with low inventory in some enterprises. The port market has experienced significant price fluctuations and is now in a range - bound state. The expected price range for MA2605 this week is 2210 - 2270 [5]. - The basis shows that the spot price in Jiangsu is 2220 yuan/ton, with a 05 - contract basis of - 11, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [5]. - As of February 12, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 94.27 tons, a decrease of 1.87 tons from the previous period. The total available methanol in coastal areas is 46.08 tons, a decrease of 0.31 tons [5]. - The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is below the average [5]. - The main positions are net short, with short positions increasing [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some devices are shut down or operating at reduced capacity; Iranian methanol production is at a low level, and imports in February are expected to shrink; previous inventory in production areas is low, and some enterprises are even restricting sales; some downstream users are still stocking up before the festival [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, with no supply shortage; as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream formaldehyde production is shutting down, weakening demand for raw materials; the main olefin devices at ports are shut down, significantly weakening local demand; most downstream users have completed pre - holiday stocking, leading to a short - term decline in demand [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 682 yuan/ton, and the price of methanol in various regions has minor changes. The futures closing price is 2231 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton from the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts are 8032, an increase of 450, and the effective forecasts are 0, a decrease of 450 [8]. - **Spread Structure**: The basis is - 21 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous day. The import spread is 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rates in different regions have also decreased to varying degrees [8]. - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory in East China ports is 56.03 tons, a decrease of 0.33 tons, and the inventory in South China ports is 38.24 tons, a decrease of 1.54 tons [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance or have reduced production, including those in Shaanxi, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang, and other regions. The maintenance time and loss vary by enterprise [55]. - **Foreign Methanol Plants**: In Iran, some plants are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level. In other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States, the operation status of methanol plants varies [56]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants are under maintenance, such as the Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy plant, while others are operating stably or at a low load [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate within a range this week. The inland methanol market is entering the pre - holiday rest period. Demand is decreasing as traditional downstream devices such as formaldehyde have stopped for holidays and some downstream has completed pre - holiday stockpiling. The supply side remains sufficient with no obvious pressure as domestic methanol factories are increasing sales efforts and inventory levels are low. The port market is expected to oscillate at the bottom before the holiday, with the suggestion to reduce risk exposure. The report also mentions to watch whether and when US President Trump will launch a real armed action against Iran, with a neutral stance. It is expected that the methanol price will mainly fluctuate this week, with MA2605 operating between 2210 - 2280 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The methanol 2605 contract: In terms of fundamentals, the inland market will maintain a light consolidation pattern, and the port market will oscillate at the bottom. The basis shows that the spot in Jiangsu is at a discount to the futures. As of February 5, 2026, the social inventory in East and South China ports decreased slightly, and the tradable supply in coastal areas also decreased. The 20 - day line is flat with the price below the average. The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions. It is expected that the methanol price will oscillate this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 2210 - 2280 [5]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely to be bullish**: Some devices like Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped. The methanol operation rate in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level. The 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has produced products on May 16, and Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong's 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device is planned to be put into production in the second half of this month. Northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Likely to be bearish**: Some previously stopped devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed operation. There is a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operation rate has dropped significantly. Coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling. Some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price data**: In the spot market, the prices of some varieties such as coking coal in the Bohai Rim and CFR China Main Port remained unchanged, while the prices in Inner Mongolia and Fujian increased by 65 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively. The futures closing price decreased by 13 yuan/ton. The basis of Jiangsu - Lunan increased by 11 yuan/ton, and the import spread increased by 1 yuan/ton [8]. - **Operation rate data**: The weighted average national operation rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operation rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions decreased by 2.39%, 1.22%, and 3.55% respectively [8]. - **Inventory data**: As of February 5, 2026, the social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports decreased by 3.24 million tons to 961,400 tons, and the tradable supply in coastal areas decreased by 355,000 tons to 463,900 tons [5]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic device maintenance**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. The maintenance time and loss vary by region and enterprise [60]. - **Foreign device operation**: In Iran, some devices are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level. Devices in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are generally operating normally, but some have low operation rates or are in the process of maintenance [61]. - **Olefin device operation**: Some olefin devices in Northwest, East China, Central China, Shandong, Northeast, and other regions are operating normally, while some are under maintenance or have low loads [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - As the holiday approaches, the domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate within a range next week. The inland methanol market is gradually entering the pre - holiday adjustment period. On the demand side, traditional downstream devices such as formaldehyde have successively shut down for holidays, and some downstream players have completed pre - holiday stockpiling, leading to a gradual decline in terminal demand. On the supply side, domestic methanol plants have continued to increase their sales efforts, with enterprise inventory levels running at a low level. Some enterprises have adopted a limited - sales strategy, and the overall supply side remains sufficient without obvious pressure. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, market trading activity has significantly decreased, and it is expected that the inland methanol market will maintain a light consolidation pattern in the short term. In the port area, methanol futures followed the non - ferrous metals sector through a round of sharp rises and falls and then fell into range - bound fluctuations again. Currently, the capital sentiment has dissipated, the geopolitical risk between the US and Iran is uncertain, and the fundamental weakness remains unchanged. It is expected that the port market will fluctuate within the bottom range before the holiday. The operation is recommended to focus on reducing risk exposure. Keep an eye on whether and when US President Trump will launch a real military action against Iran [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - The report predicts that the domestic methanol market will be range - bound next week due to the approaching holiday. The inland market is in a pre - holiday adjustment, with demand shrinking and supply sufficient. The port market is affected by factors such as capital sentiment and geopolitical risks, and is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [7] 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - The domestic methanol prices in different regions showed different trends from January 30th to February 6th. Prices in Jiangsu decreased by 2.78%, those in Hebei increased by 1.24%, those in Inner Mongolia increased by 1.12%, and those in Fujian decreased by 4.11%, while prices in Lunan remained unchanged [8] 3.2.2 Methanol Basis - From January 30th to February 6th, the spot price decreased by 2.78%, the futures price decreased by 3.28%, and the basis increased by 13 [11] 3.2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Different Processes - From January 30th to February 6th, the profit of coal - to - methanol increased by 76, that of natural - gas - to - methanol remained unchanged, and that of coke - oven - gas - to - methanol increased by 324 [13] 3.2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load this week was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% compared with last week; the load in the northwest was 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% compared with last week [15] 3.2.5 Foreign Methanol Prices and Spreads - From January 30th to February 6th, the CFR China price decreased by 2.24%, the CFR Southeast Asia price remained unchanged, and the spread decreased by 6 [18] 3.2.6 Methanol Import Spreads - From January 30th to February 6th, the spot price decreased by 2.78%, the import cost decreased by 2.26%, and the import spread decreased by 11 [21] 3.2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged from January 30th to February 6th [27] 3.2.8 Formaldehyde Production Profit and Load - From January 30th to February 6th, the formaldehyde production profit decreased by 11, and the load increased by 0.01% [28] 3.2.9 Dimethyl Ether Production Profit and Load - From January 30th to February 6th, the dimethyl ether production profit decreased by 36, and the load increased by 1.45% [30] 3.2.10 Acetic Acid Production Profit and Load - From January 30th to February 6th, the acetic acid production profit increased by 35, and the load decreased by 1.29% [35] 3.2.11 MTO Production Profit and Load - The MTO production profit increased from - 1264 on January 30th to - 1062 on February 6th, and the load decreased by 0.18% [39] 3.2.12 Methanol Port Inventory - This week, the inventory in East China was 56.36, a decrease of 3.22 compared with last week; the inventory in South China was 39.78, a decrease of 0.02 compared with last week [41] 3.2.13 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - From January 30th to February 6th, the warehouse receipts decreased by 0.99%, and the effective forecasts remained unchanged [42] 3.3检修状况 3.3.1 Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol enterprises are in maintenance, planned maintenance, or have production problems in various regions such as the Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat's 100,000 - ton/year coke - oven - gas - based methanol device has been under maintenance since early November 2024 [44] 3.3.2 Foreign Methanol Device Operation - Foreign methanol enterprises in countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the US have different operating conditions. Some are in normal operation, some are restarting and recovering, and some are under maintenance. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have one set restored, but it needs to be verified [45] 3.3.3 Olefin Device Operation - Olefin devices in different regions have different operating conditions. Some are running smoothly, some are under maintenance, and some are expected to be put into production. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin devices will be shut down for maintenance on March 15th for about 45 days [46]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for methanol is a sideways movement, with limited upside and downside potential. Macro - level factors, such as the ongoing negotiations between Iran and the US, are being closely monitored, and no clear conclusion can be drawn. Fundamentally, the methanol port inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and there are expectations of the resumption of methanol plants in Iran, resulting in a somewhat bearish fundamental outlook [2][4]. - In terms of valuation, the MTO fundamentals are weak, and the production profit is continuously compressed. The range of 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton is currently a strong fundamental resistance level. If methanol continues to rebound, the probability of a negative feedback from coastal MTO plants will increase. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol plants in Henan, which is gradually stabilizing around 1950 - 2000 yuan/ton, providing support to the lower end of the methanol valuation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Methanol Summary Supply - From January 30 to February 5, 2026, China's methanol production was 2,061,085 tons, an increase of 23,350 tons from the previous week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 92.26%, a week - on - week increase of 1.15%. Next week, China's methanol production is expected to be around 2.073 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 92.79%, higher than the current period. The planned resumption of production capacity next week exceeds the capacity involved in maintenance and production cuts, which may lead to an increase in capacity utilization and production [4]. Demand - **Olefins**: The load of previously restarted olefin plants is gradually increasing, and the operating rate is expected to continue rising. - **Traditional downstream**: For dimethyl ether, the Xinxiang Xinlianxin and Chongqing Wanshengxin plants are expected to shut down next week, with a projected supply reduction and a possible decline in overall capacity utilization. For glacial acetic acid, the faulty plants are gradually recovering this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly next week. For formaldehyde, plants such as Binzhou Hengyun, Gushi Huanyu, Li'eryan, and Guangxi Luqiao are expected to undergo maintenance, and plants like Jinyimeng may further reduce their loads, so the supply is expected to continue to decrease, and the capacity utilization rate may decline. For chlorides, there are no clearly defined shutdown plants in the next period, so the domestic methane chloride capacity utilization rate may increase slightly compared to this week. Attention should be paid to the situation of plants with load reduction and the impact of high liquid chlorine prices on methane chloride production plants [4]. Inventory - As of 11:30 on February 4, 2026, the inventory of China's sample methanol production enterprises was 368,300 tons, a decrease of 55,800 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 13.16%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 287,100 tons, an increase of 21,400 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 8.05%. - As of February 4, 2026, the inventory of methanol at Chinese ports was 1.411 million tons, a decrease of 61,100 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 4.15%. The methanol port inventory decreased this week, with 127,300 tons of visible foreign vessel discharges recorded during the period. The terminal rigid demand in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas remained stable, the提货 volume of the mainstream social warehouses was average, and the inventory decreased due to the reduction in discharges. The inventory at the South China ports increased. In the Guangdong area, there were a small number of imported and domestic vessels arriving this week, the提货 volume of the mainstream warehouses was average, and the inventory did not change much. In the Fujian area, imported cargo continued to be replenished. The提货 volume was stable due to rigid demand and pre - holiday stocking, but it was still unable to offset the increase in supply, resulting in an inventory increase [4]. 3.2 Strategies - **Unilateral trading**: In the short term, methanol is expected to move sideways, with resistance at 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton for the 05 contract and support at 2150 - 2180 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inter - delivery spread trading**: The 5 - 9 spread may show a positive spread pattern. - **Inter - commodity spread trading**: The spread between MA and PP is in a sideways pattern [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol market is likely to experience low - level fluctuations this week. Inland methanol supply is relatively abundant, but some traditional downstream industries are shutting down for the Spring Festival, which exerts a certain downward pressure on the market. However, there is still restocking demand from some downstream sectors, and the current methanol prices in production and sales areas are at the bottom, with strong freight rates supporting the arrival prices in sales areas. Therefore, inland methanol is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. In the port area, the pressure boundary has moved up to 2400. Without macro - level hype points, the port spot market is expected to fluctuate within the range below the pressure level this week. Overall, the methanol price is expected to show a relatively strong upward - trending fluctuation, with MA2605 operating between 2220 - 2300 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The domestic methanol market is expected to have low - level fluctuations this week. Inland methanol supply is loose, and some traditional downstream industries are on holiday, but there is restocking demand. The port market is expected to fluctuate below the 2400 pressure level. The methanol price is expected to be relatively strong and fluctuate, with MA2605 in the 2220 - 2300 range [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Some plants have shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya [6]. - Methanol production in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level [6]. - A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in late May [6]. - CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua [7]. - There will be concentrated vessel arrivals at the port in the second half of the month [7]. - Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and MTBE operating rates have dropped significantly [7]. - Coal - to - methanol production has a certain profit margin, and producers are actively selling [7]. - Some plants in the production areas have accumulated inventories due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price Data - Spot market: The price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 682 yuan/ton; the CFR price at the main port in China increased by 1 US dollar/ton to 268 US dollars/ton; the import cost increased by 6 yuan/ton to 2308 yuan/ton. The prices of methanol in different domestic regions showed different trends, with prices in Shandong, Hebei, and Fujian changing to varying degrees [8]. - Futures market: The futures closing price increased by 32 yuan/ton to 2279 yuan/ton, and the number of registered warrants remained unchanged at 7082 [8]. - Spread structure: The basis decreased by 19 yuan/ton to - 41 yuan/ton; the import spread decreased by 26 yuan/ton to 29 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3.2 Operating Rate Data - The weighted average national operating rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in different regions, such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest, all decreased to varying degrees [8]. 3.3.3 Inventory Data - As of January 29, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in the ports of East and South China was 993,800 tons, a decrease of 26,100 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) decreased by 30,800 tons to 499,400 tons [5]. 3.4 Maintenance Status 3.4.1 Domestic Methanol Plant Maintenance - Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling, etc. The maintenance periods and losses vary by plant [60]. 3.4.2 Overseas Methanol Plant Maintenance - Some overseas methanol plants are in different operating states. For example, some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting, and some plants in the United States and other regions are operating normally or at a low level [61]. 3.4.3 Olefin Plant Maintenance - Some domestic olefin plants are under maintenance, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy, which shut down for maintenance on March 15, and some plants have normal operations or are planning future maintenance [62].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint Next week, the domestic methanol market is likely to experience low - level fluctuations. Inland, methanol factories are mainly focusing on active sales to maintain inventory before the Spring Festival, with relatively loose supply. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, some traditional downstream industries are gradually shutting down for holidays, and the fundamentals remain weak, suppressing the market. Meanwhile, some downstream industries still have restocking needs, and the methanol prices in production and sales regions are at the bottom, with strong freight rates supporting the arrival prices in sales regions. Under the influence of both long and short factors, the inland methanol market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. In ports, the pressure boundary has risen to 2400. Without macro - level hype points, the port spot market is expected to fluctuate within the range below the pressure level next week [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - Next week, the domestic methanol market is likely to have low - level fluctuations. Inland market will be affected by supply and demand changes, and the port market will be restricted by the pressure boundary of 2400 [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Domestic Methanol Spot Price**: From January 23 to January 30, prices in different regions showed various changes. Jiangsu increased by 0.31%, Fujian increased by 1.32%, while Hebei decreased by 0.49%, and prices in Shandong (Lunan) and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [6]. - **Methanol Basis**: The spot price increased by 0.31%, and the futures price increased by 0.96%. The basis decreased by 15 [8]. - **Methanol Production Profits by Process**: Coal - based production profit decreased by 49, natural gas - based production profit remained unchanged, and coke - oven gas - based production profit decreased by 324 [10]. - **Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load**: Nationally, the load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and in the northwest region, it decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [12]. - **Foreign Methanol Prices and Spreads**: CFR China increased by 0.37%, CFR Southeast Asia increased by 0.31%, and the spread remained unchanged [15]. - **Methanol Import Spread**: The import cost increased by 0.01%, and the import spread increased by 7 [18]. - **Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices**: Prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged, with a weekly change of 0.00% [25]. - **Formaldehyde Production and Load**: The production profit increased by 4, and the load increased by 0.01% to 30.98% [26]. - **Dimethyl Ether Production and Load**: The production profit increased by 14, and the load increased by 1.45% to 9.79% [28]. - **Acetic Acid Production and Load**: The production profit decreased by 4, and the load decreased by 1.29% to 72.32% [31]. - **MTO Production and Load**: The production profit decreased by 22, and the load decreased by 2.18% to 84.18% in the East China region [35]. - **Methanol Port Inventory**: In the East China region, it increased by 0.79 to 59.58, and in the South China region, it decreased by 3.40 to 39.8 [36]. - **Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: Warehouse receipts decreased by 7.64% to 7153, and effective forecasts remained at 0 [39]. 3.3 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Plants**: Many plants in different regions such as the Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast are in various states of maintenance, including planned and unplanned shutdowns, with different durations and production losses [42]. - **Foreign Methanol Plants**: Plants in countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States have different operating conditions, including restarts, normal operations, and planned shutdowns [43]. - **Olefin Plants with Methanol - related Operations**: Some olefin plants in the Northwest, East, Central, Shandong, Northeast, and other regions are in operation, maintenance, or have production plans, with different operating statuses and production capacities [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic methanol market is likely to fluctuate at a low level. Inland methanol is expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation due to the co - existence of positive and negative factors, and the port spot market is expected to fluctuate within the range below the pressure level of 2400 without macro - level speculation points. The price of methanol this week is expected to fluctuate strongly, with MA2605 operating in the range of 2280 - 2385 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Daily Hints - The fundamentals of methanol 2605 are neutral. The inland market has a weak supply - demand situation, while the port market's pressure boundary has risen to 2400. The basis shows that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish. As of January 29, 2026, the social inventory in East and South China ports has decreased slightly, and the overall available circulating goods in coastal areas have also decreased, both being bearish. The 20 - day line is upward and the price is above the average, which is bullish. The main position is net - short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish. The expected price of methanol will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 2280 - 2385 [5]. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Positive Factors**: Some devices such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinye have stopped production. The methanol production start - up rate in Iran has decreased, and port inventory is at a low level. A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has produced products on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in the second half of this month. Northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Some previously shut - down devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production. There is a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the start - up rate of MTBE has dropped significantly. Coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling goods. Some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 685 yuan/ton, the price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2270 yuan/ton, the CFR price of the Chinese main port is 268 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2313 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the futures is 2320 yuan/ton, the number of registered warrants is 7153, and the effective forecast is 0. In terms of the spread structure, the basis is - 50 yuan/ton, and the import spread is - 7 yuan/ton [8]. - **Start - up Rate Data**: The weighted average national start - up rate is 74.90%, showing a decrease of 3.81% compared to last week. The start - up rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have all declined [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory in East China ports is 59.58 tons, showing an increase of 0.79 tons compared to last week, while the inventory in South China ports is 39.8 tons, showing a decrease of 3.4 tons compared to last week [8]. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance**: Multiple domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, with different maintenance start and end times and losses. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat's 100,000 - ton/year coke - oven gas - based methanol device has been under maintenance since the first half of November 2024, and the end time is to be determined, with a weekly maintenance loss of 1950 tons [59]. - **Foreign Methanol Device Operation**: Some Iranian methanol plants are in the process of resuming production, while some plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Qatar and other countries are operating normally. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have resumed one set, but it needs to be verified [60]. - **Olefin Device Operation**: Some olefin plants are in maintenance, while some are operating stably. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants have been shut down for maintenance since March 15, and the expected maintenance period is 45 days, while Yan'an Energy and Chemical's methanol and olefin plants are operating stably [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2260 - 2400 in the short - term [7] - The domestic methanol market shows a split between the port and the inland. The port market oscillates, while the inland price continues to decline. The overall domestic methanol production is increasing, and the inventory shows different trends in different regions. The short - term MTO industry's operating rate is expected to rise slightly [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2260 - 2400 in the short - term [7] - Market performance: The port methanol market oscillates, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2240 - 2330 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2220 - 2290 yuan/ton. The inland price continues to decline, with the price in Ordos North Line ranging from 1785 - 1805 yuan/ton [8] - Outlook: The domestic methanol production increases. The inland enterprise inventory decreases slightly, the port inventory accumulates, but the port inventory is expected to decline next week. The short - term MTO industry's operating rate is expected to rise slightly [8] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures oscillates and closes up, with a weekly increase of 0.96% [11] - Inter - delivery spread: As of January 30th, the MA 5 - 9 spread is - 24 [16] - Position analysis: As of January 29th, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts is 7410, a decrease of 335 compared to last week [25] Spot Market - Domestic price: As of January 29th, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area is 2300 yuan/ton, an increase of 37.5 yuan/ton compared to last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia is 1790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to last week. The spread between East China and Northwest is 510 yuan/ton, an increase of 42.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [30] - Foreign price: As of January 29th, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port is 272 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton compared to last week. The spread between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port is 50 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars/ton compared to last week [35] - Basis: As of January 29th, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol is - 52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [39] 3.3. Industry Chain Analysis Upstream - Coal and gas prices: As of January 28th, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal is 685 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of January 29th, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.88 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 1.48 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [42] Industry - Production and operating rate: As of January 29th, China's methanol production is 2037735 tons, an increase of 28820 tons compared to last week; the device capacity utilization rate is 91.21%, a month - on - month increase of 1.43% [45] - Inventory: As of January 28th, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 42.41 tons, a decrease of 1.42 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%; the order backlog of sample enterprises is 26.57 tons, an increase of 2.74 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 11.50%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 147.21 tons, an increase of 1.46 tons compared to the previous data. The inventory in East China accumulates, while that in South China decreases [52] - Import volume and profit: In December 2025, China's methanol import volume is 173.40 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%; from January to December 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume is 1440.54 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75%. As of January 29th, the methanol import profit is - 12.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.94 yuan/ton compared to last week [57] Downstream - Operating rate: As of January 29th, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices is 81.95%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%. The MTO devices of Zhejiang Xingxing, Sierbang, and Shandong Hengtong continue to be shut down, while the Ningbo Fude device restarts, but the weekly average operating rate still decreases [60] - Profit: As of January 30th, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit is - 936 yuan/ton, an increase of 102 yuan/ton compared to last week [63] 3.4. Options Market Analysis - Not provided in the content