Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The rebound of methanol on the previous trading day was mainly due to the significant strengthening of coking coal, which boosted the sentiment of the coal - chemical sector on the disk. The judgment on the fundamentals of methanol remains weak, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. Methanol valuation is relatively high, and the upward driving force is not strong [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On August 25, 2025, MA01 closed at 2424 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan or 0.79% from August 22; MA05 closed at 2402 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.76%; MA09 closed at 2308 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan or 0.61% [1] - **Spot Prices**: In different regions on August 25, 2025, prices in most regions increased slightly compared to August 22. For example, the price in Shandong was 2310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.43%, and the price in Inner Mongolia was 2082.50 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.24%. However, the prices in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei remained unchanged [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 126.50 yuan/ton on August 25, 2025, down 16.50 yuan from August 22 [1] 2. Coal and Natural Gas Prices - **Coal Prices**: On August 25, 2025, the prices of Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 decreased compared to August 22. For example, the price of Ordos Q5500 was 500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or - 1.96% [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: The profit of coal - based methanol remained at 373.70 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained at - 422.00 yuan/ton on August 25, 2025 [1] - **Downstream Profit**: The profit of Northwest MTO increased by 5 yuan to 107 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China MTO increased by 10.50 yuan to - 418.07 yuan/ton. However, the profit of acetic acid decreased by 5.50 yuan to 240.07 yuan/ton, and the profit of MTBE decreased by 50 yuan to 19.12 yuan/ton [1] 4. Market Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 rose strongly, opening at 2406 yuan/ton and closing at 2424 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 459,712 lots, and the open interest was 675,269 lots, showing increased trading volume and decreased open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol vessels arriving at port in the far - month was 258 - 268 US dollars/ton, and the reference negotiation price of cargoes from other Middle - East regions arriving at port in the far - month was + 0 - 0.7%. Some factories in other Middle - East regions were still selling far - month loading port cargoes [1] 5. Trading Strategy - The rebound of methanol on the previous trading day was mainly due to the significant strengthening of coking coal, which boosted the sentiment of the coal - chemical sector on the disk. The fundamentals of methanol are still weak, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. The upstream coal - based profit is still high, and the downstream profit is still poor, with room for repair. The methanol valuation is relatively high, and the upward driving force is not strong [1]

Report Summary of Methanol on August 18, 2025 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. Upstream coal - based profits are relatively high, while downstream profits inland are poor and have room for repair. Methanol is relatively over - valued. The actual impact of production cuts may be limited as old production facilities account for a small proportion, and the supply of inland coal - based methanol is gradually recovering. Downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories and limited demand for further inventory building. Port inventory is accumulating at a faster pace, pressuring spot prices in East China. After the weakening influence of coking coal sentiment, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2412 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (-0.94%); MA05 closed at 2387 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (-1.20%); MA09 closed at 2316 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-1.03%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Prices in regions such as Taicang, Shandong, and Guangdong decreased, with Taicang down 20 yuan/ton (-0.85%), Shandong down 5 yuan/ton (-0.21%), and Guangdong down 15 yuan/ton (-0.64%) [1]. - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Coal and industrial natural gas prices remained unchanged, with Buzhou Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 coal prices stable, and industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing unchanged [1]. - **Profit Situation**: Coal - based methanol profit was 440 yuan/ton, down 6.3 yuan/ton (-1.41%); Northwest MTO profit increased from - 11.00 yuan/ton to 44.20 yuan/ton (501.82%); East China MTO profit increased from - 550.07 yuan/ton to - 504.57 yuan/ton (8.27%); acetic acid profit decreased by 9.81 yuan/ton (-4.39%); MTBE profit decreased by 1.80 yuan/ton (-1.83%) [1]. 3.2 Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2601 oscillated downward, opening at 2440 yuan/ton, closing at 2412 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 486,683 lots and open interest of 623,445, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign**: An 850,000 - ton methanol plant in Southeast Asia is under maintenance, and a 600,000 - ton downstream plant is planned to be shut down for maintenance in mid - August. In the Middle East, multiple methanol plants are operating stably, and the total methanol loading volume in August has increased to 480,000 tons, an increase of 215,000 tons (81.13%) compared to the same period last month [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA oscillated weakly, closing at 2409 at night. Given the weak fundamentals, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly [1].