| | | 甲醇日评20250826: 焦煤反弹提振煤化工情绪 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 变化值 | | | | | | | | 单位 2025/8/25 2025/8/22 指标 (绝对值) (相对值) | | | | | | | | MA01 元/吨 | 2424.00 | 2405.00 | 19.00 | 0.79% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 元/吨 | 2402.00 | 2384.00 | 18.00 | 0.76% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 元/吨 | 2308.00 | 2294.00 | 14.00 | 0.61% | | | | 太仓 元/吨 | 2297.50 | 2295.00 | 2.50 | 0.11% | | | | 山东 元/吨 | 2310.00 | 2300.00 | 10.00 | 0.43% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 元/吨 | 2295.00 | 2285.00 | 10.00 | 0.44% | | 及基差 | 甲醇现货价格 | 元/ ...

Report Summary of Methanol on August 18, 2025 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. Upstream coal - based profits are relatively high, while downstream profits inland are poor and have room for repair. Methanol is relatively over - valued. The actual impact of production cuts may be limited as old production facilities account for a small proportion, and the supply of inland coal - based methanol is gradually recovering. Downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories and limited demand for further inventory building. Port inventory is accumulating at a faster pace, pressuring spot prices in East China. After the weakening influence of coking coal sentiment, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2412 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (-0.94%); MA05 closed at 2387 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (-1.20%); MA09 closed at 2316 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-1.03%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Prices in regions such as Taicang, Shandong, and Guangdong decreased, with Taicang down 20 yuan/ton (-0.85%), Shandong down 5 yuan/ton (-0.21%), and Guangdong down 15 yuan/ton (-0.64%) [1]. - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Coal and industrial natural gas prices remained unchanged, with Buzhou Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 coal prices stable, and industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing unchanged [1]. - **Profit Situation**: Coal - based methanol profit was 440 yuan/ton, down 6.3 yuan/ton (-1.41%); Northwest MTO profit increased from - 11.00 yuan/ton to 44.20 yuan/ton (501.82%); East China MTO profit increased from - 550.07 yuan/ton to - 504.57 yuan/ton (8.27%); acetic acid profit decreased by 9.81 yuan/ton (-4.39%); MTBE profit decreased by 1.80 yuan/ton (-1.83%) [1]. 3.2 Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2601 oscillated downward, opening at 2440 yuan/ton, closing at 2412 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 486,683 lots and open interest of 623,445, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign**: An 850,000 - ton methanol plant in Southeast Asia is under maintenance, and a 600,000 - ton downstream plant is planned to be shut down for maintenance in mid - August. In the Middle East, multiple methanol plants are operating stably, and the total methanol loading volume in August has increased to 480,000 tons, an increase of 215,000 tons (81.13%) compared to the same period last month [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA oscillated weakly, closing at 2409 at night. Given the weak fundamentals, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1]. 2. Report's Core View The report has a weak outlook on the fundamentals of methanol, but believes that short - term policy expectations outweigh the impact of fundamentals. It suggests investors to stay on the sidelines for now. The methanol valuation is relatively high, and the anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production. Also, the high raw material inventory of downstream MTO enterprises will likely lead to continued destocking, which will suppress the spot price in East China [1]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 rose from 2497 yuan/ton to 2550 yuan/ton, a 2.12% increase; MA05 increased from 2428 yuan/ton to 2473 yuan/ton, a 1.85% increase; MA09 climbed from 2411 yuan/ton to 2480 yuan/ton, a 2.86% increase [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in regions like Taicang, Shandong, Guangdong, Shaanxi increased, while those in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Buhootes Q5500 rose from 450 yuan/ton to 452.5 yuan/ton with a 0.56% increase, and the price of Yulin Q6000 increased from 507.5 yuan/ton to 515 yuan/ton, a 1.48% increase. The price of Datong Q5500 remained stable [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1]. 3.2. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol and natural - gas - based methanol profits remained unchanged. The profit of Northwest MTO and Yiquge remained unchanged, while the profit of East China MTO decreased by 19.88%, and the profit of acetic acid decreased by 11.23%. The profit of MTBE increased by 20.83%, and the profit of formaldehyde increased by 3.73% [1]. 3.3. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated upwards, opening at 2417 yuan/ton, closing at 2480 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,252,918 lots and an open interest of 632,187 lots, showing increased trading volume and decreased open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: A 1 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country is shut down, and multiple plants are operating at their existing loads. The loading speed at the port is expected to improve in mid - to - late July compared to early July [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamental outlook for methanol is weak, but short - term policy expectations outweigh fundamental impacts. It is recommended to wait and observe temporarily. The valuation of methanol is relatively high, and there is room for the repair of inland downstream profits. The current high raw material inventory of downstream MTO enterprises makes port inventory accumulation likely, which will suppress spot prices in East China [1] Summary by Section 1. Price Information 1.1 Methanol Futures Prices - MA01 closed at 2497 yuan/ton on July 23, 2025, down 39 yuan/ton (-1.54%) from the previous day; MA05 was 2428 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (-1.34%); MA09 was 2411 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton (-1.87%) [1] 1.2 Methanol Spot Prices - Spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends. For example, in Shandong, it increased by 15 yuan/ton (0.66%) to 2290 yuan/ton, while in Inner Mongolia, it rose by 47.5 yuan/ton (2.39%) to 2037.5 yuan/ton. In contrast, in Taicang, it decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.21%) to 2410 yuan/ton [1] 1.3 Basis - The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 34 yuan/ton to - 87 yuan/ton [1] 1.4 Upstream Costs - Some coal prices were stable, such as Ordos Q5500 and Yulin Q6000, while Datong Q5500 increased by 5 yuan/ton (0.97%) to 520 yuan/ton. Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] 2. Profit Information - Coal - based methanol profit decreased by 6.3 yuan/ton (-1.48%) to 419.3 yuan/ton, while natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at - 540 yuan/ton. Northwest MTO profit dropped by 128 yuan/ton (-36.28%) to 224.8 yuan/ton, and East China MTO profit increased by 87.5 yuan/ton (11.49%) to - 674.07 yuan/ton. Some downstream product profits, like MTBE and formaldehyde, remained unchanged, while acetic acid profit increased by 18.71 yuan/ton (6.68%) to 298.79 yuan/ton [1] 3. Important Information 3.1 Domestic Information - The main methanol contract MA2509 declined, opening at 2457 yuan/ton, closing at 2411 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 866,930 lots, and open interest was 666,635 lots, with volume decreasing and open interest increasing [1] 3.2 Foreign Information - In a Middle - Eastern country, only one 1 - million - ton methanol plant is shut down, and multiple plants are operating at their existing loads. The estimated loading speed at the port in mid - to - late July is expected to be higher than that in the early part of the month [1] 4. Trading Strategy - After a slight decline in MA the previous day and a rise to 2469 in the night session, considering the weak fundamental outlook and the greater impact of short - term policy expectations, it is recommended to wait and observe [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - After the cease - fire agreement, the market's risk - aversion sentiment decreased, the geopolitical premium was quickly squeezed out, the domestic crude oil declined, and methanol also corrected. In the future, the market will no longer focus on the escalation of the conflict, and methanol will gradually return to its own fundamentals. Currently, the domestic methanol supply - demand change is small and the driving force is weak. The possible future impact lies in imports. Although the conflict has affected Iran's methanol supply, the overall arrival volume in South America is stable, and the high operating rate of inland coal enterprises has made up for the loss of Middle - East device maintenance to some extent. Last week, the port generally accumulated inventory. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate, and the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500 [1] Summary According to the Directory 1. Price and Basis - **Futures Prices**: MA01 in Taicang was 2413 yuan/ton (- 0.25%), in Guangdong was 2435 yuan/ton (- 1.22%); MA05 was 2325 yuan/ton (- 0.13%); MA09 was 2381 yuan/ton (- 0.50%) compared to June 27, 2025 [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, it was 2230 yuan/ton (- 1.33%); in Shaanxi, 2057.50 yuan/ton (- 0.36%); in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia, 1947.50 yuan/ton (- 0.38%) [1] - **Basis**: Taicang spot - MA was 377 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton [1] 2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Prices**: Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 430 yuan/ton, 490 yuan/ton, and 495 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: In Hohhot, it was 3.94 yuan/cubic meter; in Chongqing, 3.30 yuan/cubic meter. Both remained unchanged [1] 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: Coal - to - methanol in Chongqing was 493.40 yuan/ton, unchanged; natural gas - to - methanol was - 460 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - **Downstream Profit**: Northwest MTO was 562 yuan/ton (+ 2.07%); East China MTO was - 1183.07 yuan/ton (+ 19.69%); acetic acid was 347 yuan/ton (+ 21.00%); MTBE and Yilangtan remained unchanged; formaldehyde was - 262.40 yuan/ton (- 3.96%) [1] 4. Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated narrowly, opened at 2389 yuan/ton, closed at 2381 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 863081 lots and a position of 759974 lots, showing a reduction in volume and position [1] - **Foreign**: 90% of the methanol plants in a Middle - East country are restarting. Attention should be paid to the later start - up and shipping and loading [1] 5. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA oscillated in the range and closed at 2371 at night. Considering the current situation, the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the geopolitical tensions eased, methanol returned to its fundamentals and is likely to remain weak in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [10][34] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, affected by the easing of the conflict between Iran and Israel, methanol futures dropped significantly. By Friday afternoon's close, the weighted methanol futures closed at 2399 yuan/ton, a 4.99% decrease from the previous week. In the spot market, port methanol prices mostly rose, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2610 - 2820 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2440 - 2650 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market continued to rise, with the price in Ordos North Line in the main production area ranging from 1990 - 2033 yuan/ton and the receiving price in Dongying from 2265 - 2315 yuan/ton [12] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol output increased to 2,057,636 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 91.31%, a 3.00% increase. Some companies had new overhauls, but the overall recovery volume was greater than the loss volume due to some large - scale plants operating at full capacity [13][15] - **Downstream Demand**: As of June 26, the average weekly operating rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 80.13%, a 3.40 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, and chlorides increased, while those of formaldehyde decreased slightly [16][18] - **Inventory**: As of June 25, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 341,600 tons, a 7.02% decrease from the previous period, and the order backlog was 240,700 tons, a 12.08% decrease. The port sample inventory was 670,500 tons, a 14.34% increase [20][23] - **Profit**: Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples showed different trends. Coal - based methanol profits generally narrowed, while the economics of coke - oven gas - based and natural - gas - based methanol improved [24] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, methanol plant overhauls are more than restarts. It is expected that China's methanol output will be about 2.0052 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 88.98%, a decrease from last week [30] - **Downstream Demand**: The olefin industry's operating rate is expected to continue to decline. The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is expected to remain flat, that of glacial acetic acid is expected to increase, and those of formaldehyde and chlorides are expected to decrease [31][34] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 354,900 tons, a slight increase from last week. Port inventory is expected to decline as the import apparent demand may remain weak [34]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the market's risk - aversion sentiment decreased, the geopolitical premium was quickly squeezed out, the domestic crude oil price fell, and methanol also pulled back. The methanol market will gradually return to its own fundamentals. The current supply - demand situation of domestic methanol has little change and weak driving force. The possible impact on the market in the future still lies in imports. Although the conflict has affected Iran's methanol supply, the overall arrival volume from South America is stable, which compensates for the loss of Middle - East plant maintenance to some extent. The port inventory increased last week. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate, and the operating range of the 09 contract is estimated to be between 2300 - 2500 yuan/ton. (View score: 0) [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices (Closing Prices)**: On June 27, 2025, MA01 was 2419 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.58%) from the previous day; MA05 was 2328 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.34%); MA09 was 2393 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.99%) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices (Daily Average)**: On June 27, 2025, the price in Taicang was 2810 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton (1.63%); in Shandong it was 2260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.88%); in Guangdong it was 2465 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.41%); in Shaanxi it remained unchanged at 2065 yuan/ton; in Sichuan - Chongqing it remained at 2300 yuan/ton; in Hubei it remained at 2340 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia it was 1955 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-1.26%) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was 391 yuan/ton on June 27, 2025, up 59 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 2. Upstream Costs - **Coal Spot Prices**: On June 27, 2025, the price of Buzhouke SQ5500 was 430 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.58%); the price of Datong Q5500 remained at 490 yuan/ton; the price of Yulin Q6000 remained at 495 yuan/ton [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The price in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively on June 27, 2025 [1]. 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: On June 27, 2025, the profit of coal - to - methanol production remained at 493.40 yuan/ton; the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol production remained at - 460 yuan/ton; the profit of Northwest MTO was 550.60 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.90%); the profit of East China MTO was - 1473.07 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan/ton (3.98%) [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: On June 27, 2025, the profit of acetic acid was 286.77 yuan/ton, down 3.77 yuan/ton (-1.30%); the profit of MTBE was 169.12 yuan/ton, up 63.60 yuan/ton (60.27%); the profit of formaldehyde remained at - 252.40 yuan/ton; the profit of dichloromethane remained at 518 yuan/ton [1]. 4. Important Information - **Domestic Futures Price**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated and declined. It opened at 2417 yuan/ton, closed at 2393 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 986,560 lots, and the open interest was 784,498 lots, showing reduced volume and position [1]. - **Foreign Information**: After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the industry expected that the import supply from a certain Middle - East country would return to normal. The important downstream factories continued the negative feedback, and the US - dollar fixed prices were stable and then declined. The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian cargoes arriving in the far - month was 275 - 285 US dollars/ton, and the merchants' intended selling price was 284 - 285 US dollars/ton. The non - Iranian cargoes were mainly traded at formula prices. Some buyers intended to buy imported cargoes arriving in late July. On Friday, a small number of non - Iranian cargoes arriving in the far - month were reported to be traded at 280 US dollars/ton. In other Middle - East regions, a small number of factories' intended selling points for far - month arriving cargoes were at +1.9%, and the buyers' psychological price was relatively low, with no real - deal transactions for the time being. The CFR China price was in the range of 216 - 280 US dollars/ton [1].