1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see, and observe OPEC's export behavior when prices fall [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. The port inventory is further depleted, but future port pressure remains due to high imports and potential olefin plant overhauls. The supply is at a high level, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. The strategy is to wait and see [5]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term due to reserve needs and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, and it is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner. The strategy is to consider buying on dips [8][9]. - For rubber, currently hold a neutral - to - bullish view. Short - term operations are recommended, and hold the position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 for hedging [12]. - For PVC, the comprehensive corporate profit is at a historical low, but supply reduction is limited and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is about to enter the off - season, while exports to India are expected to remain high. The overall supply - demand situation is poor, and the strategy is to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - to - low with large room for upward valuation repair. Supply is increasing while demand in the off - season is decreasing. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to halt production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The long - term contradiction has shifted, and the strategy is to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. - For polypropylene, the cost side is expected to have a supply surplus. Supply pressure is high, and demand is seasonally oscillating. The overall inventory pressure is high, but there may be support in the first quarter of next year [23]. - For PX, the load remains high, but downstream PTA overhauls are frequent. PX is expected to have a small inventory build - up in December. Pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [26]. - For PTA, the short - term supply has high overhauls, and the demand side has low inventory and profit pressure but will decline in the off - season. PTA processing fees have limited upward space, and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply situation has slightly improved, but the overall load is still high and imports are at a high level in December. The port inventory build - up will continue, and there is a risk of further price rebounds due to potential increased overhauls [31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The U.S. Department of Energy postponed data release due to the Christmas holiday. INE's main crude oil futures rose 0.10 yuan/barrel, or 0.02%, to 442.70 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 15.00 yuan/ton, or 0.61%, to 2489.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 10.00 yuan/ton, or 0.33%, to 3016.00 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see, and observe OPEC's export behavior when prices fall [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 35 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 2.5 yuan/ton, in Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by - 40 yuan/ton. The main futures contract fell 10 yuan/ton to 2162 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was 23 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. The port inventory is further depleted, but future port pressure remains due to high imports and potential olefin plant overhauls. The supply is at a high level, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. The strategy is to wait and see [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, in Henan by 30 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, in Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu by 10 yuan/ton, in Shanxi by 20 yuan/ton, and in the Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was - 30 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 5 yuan/ton to 1740 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term due to reserve needs and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, and it is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner. The strategy is to consider buying on dips [8][9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Commodities generally rose, and rubber prices increased significantly. Rubber winter - storage buying demand is a bullish factor. Bulls and bears have different views. Bulls focus on factors such as limited production in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases, and improved demand in China, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, off - season demand, and potential under - performance of supply - side benefits. As of December 18, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.66%, up 1.08 percentage points from last week and 2.56 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.76%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 5.93 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel tire inventory increased. As of December 14, 2025, China's total natural rubber social inventory was 1.152 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,000 tons, or 2.6%. Spot prices of some rubber products also changed. [9][10][11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently hold a neutral - to - bullish view. Short - term operations are recommended, and hold the position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 for hedging [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 24 yuan to 4757 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4480 yuan/ton (unchanged), the basis was - 277 yuan/ton (up 24 yuan/ton), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 120 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton). The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2325 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 820 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of ethylene was 745 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the spot price of caustic soda was 715 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton). The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%; the calcium - carbide method was 77.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%; the ethylene method was 76.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%. The overall downstream operating rate was 45.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%. Factory inventory was 329,000 tons (down 16,000 tons), and social inventory was 1.057 million tons (down 3,000 tons) [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The comprehensive corporate profit is at a historical low, but supply reduction is limited and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is about to enter the off - season, while exports to India are expected to remain high. The overall supply - demand situation is poor, and the strategy is to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5315 yuan/ton (unchanged), the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5434 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the pure benzene basis was - 119 yuan/ton (widened by 27 yuan/ton). The spot price of styrene rose 25 yuan/ton to 6625 yuan/ton, the closing price of the active styrene contract rose 40 yuan/ton to 6638 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 13 yuan/ton (weakened by 15 yuan/ton). The BZN spread was 127.75 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton), the non - integrated EB device profit was - 198.35 yuan/ton (up 45 yuan/ton), and the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton (narrowed by 19 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 69.13%, up 1.02%; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 139,300 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.60%, down 1.67%; the PS operating rate was 54.50%, down 3.80%; the EPS operating rate was 51.81%, down 1.96%; the ABS operating rate was 71.00%, up 0.47% [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - to - low with large room for upward valuation repair. Supply is increasing while demand in the off - season is decreasing. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6390 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6325 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 65 yuan/ton (strengthened by 68 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 82.66%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05%. The production enterprise inventory was 458,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 29,200 tons; the trader inventory was 32,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,200 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.45%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4 yuan/ton [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to halt production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The long - term contradiction has shifted, and the strategy is to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6266 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6250 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the basis was - 16 yuan/ton (strengthened by 12 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 76.92%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32%. The production enterprise inventory was 533,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,000 tons; the trader inventory was 187,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,100 tons; the port inventory was 68,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12,000 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. The LL - PP spread was 124 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6 yuan/ton [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost side is expected to have a supply surplus. Supply pressure is high, and demand is seasonally oscillating. The overall inventory pressure is high, but there may be support in the first quarter of next year [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 64 yuan to 7358 yuan, the PX CFR rose 5 US dollars to 901 US dollars, and the basis was 24 yuan (up 43 yuan) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 3 - 5 spread was 4 yuan (down 12 yuan). The PX load: China's load was 88.1%, unchanged from the previous month; Asia's load was 78.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%. In terms of devices, Tianjin Petrochemical in China shut down, a 260,000 - ton device of Japan's Eneos restarted, and a 200,000 - ton device of Idemitsu was restarting. The PTA load was 73.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.7%. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 283,000 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of December, an increase of 8,000 tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of October was 4.074 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 48,000 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 361 US dollars (up 7 US dollars), South Korea's PX - MX was 154 US dollars (unchanged), and the naphtha crack spread was 87 US dollars (down 1 US dollar) [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX load remains high, but downstream PTA overhauls are frequent. PX is expected to have a small inventory build - up in December. Pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 58 yuan to 5152 yuan, the East China spot price rose 35 yuan to 5050 yuan, the basis was - 13 yuan (up 6 yuan), and the 5 - 9 spread was 94 yuan (up 16 yuan). The PTA load was 73.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.7%. The downstream load was 89.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 19 was 2.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,000 tons. The spot processing fee of PTA rose 37 yuan to 214 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market rose 16 yuan to 325 yuan [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply has high overhauls, and the demand side has low inventory and profit pressure but will decline in the off - season. PTA processing fees have limited upward space, and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract was unchanged at 3818 yuan, the East China spot price rose 80 yuan to 3653 yuan, the basis was - 8 yuan (up 5 yuan), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 73 yuan (down 11 yuan). The ethylene glycol load was 72.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The downstream load was 89.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. The import arrival forecast was 118,000 tons, and the East China departure volume on December 24 was 11,000 tons. The port inventory was 716,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - based production profit was - 969 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 1052 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 123 yuan. The cost of ethylene was unchanged at 745 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market is expected to be weak with a narrowing downside space. The current fundamental drivers are downward, and it is in a weak operation recently due to high supply, increased pressure on the MTO industry, and compressed production profits under inventory pressure. The cost - side pricing logic weight of methanol has increased slightly, and the cost center is expected to gradually stabilize [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of methanol's 01 - contract was 2,013 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,016 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The trading volume was 1,387,439 lots, an increase of 275,547 lots; the open interest was 1,450,621 lots, a decrease of 7,882 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 7,165 tons, a decrease of 3,887 tons; the turnover was 2,797,398 ten - thousand yuan, an increase of 548,342 ten - thousand yuan. The basis was - 28, down 11; the spread between MA01 and MA05 was - 137, down 14 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Inner Mongolia remained at 1,920 yuan/ton, the price in northern Shaanxi increased by 15 yuan to 1,905 yuan/ton, and the price in Shandong remained at 2,080 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2016.39, an increase of 3.28. The Taicang spot price was 1,997 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1,977.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. Among the 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 11 cities saw price drops ranging from 5 - 20 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol market showed different trends, with the futures hitting a new low. Port inventories decreased under the influence of reverse - flow of imported goods, but the buying was still mainly for rigid demand. The basis of the main port strengthened slightly. In the inland main production areas, the spot was tight, and the upstream auction prices increased slightly. Some areas in the southwest and Shandong continued to decline [4]. - As of November 19, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 147.93 million tons, a decrease of 6.43 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.17%. The port inventory decreased, with good提货 in the East China social warehouse due to lack of domestic supply and reverse - flow of imported goods, and stable downstream rigid demand. The inventory in the South China ports also continued to decrease [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of methanol is - 1, indicating a weak - bearish view [5]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - **Drivers**: The fundamental drivers of methanol are downward. In terms of supply, the daily production of methanol has increased compared to the early 11th. The import logistics contradiction may be alleviated, and the import supply is still abundant. On the demand side, the MTO industry is under pressure, and the profit is significantly compressed, suppressing the upward space of methanol. There are no major macro events in the short term, and the market is expected to be weak in the near future [6]. - **Valuation**: As the processing profit of coal - to - methanol is gradually compressed, the weight of the cost - side pricing logic of methanol has increased slightly. The coal price is expected to rise more slowly, and the cost center of coal - to - methanol is expected to gradually stabilize. It is necessary to see a decline in inventory caused by production enterprises reducing the operating rate [6].

Group 1 - The main contract of methanol futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 2021.00 yuan, with a current price of 2030.00 yuan, reflecting a drop of 2.45% [1] Group 2 - New Lake Futures predicts that methanol will primarily experience low-level fluctuations in the short term due to sustained upstream operations and high import expectations [2] - The domestic upstream production remains stable, while the import volume is expected to remain high due to significant arrivals in October [2] - Downstream demand is generally weak, with traditional downstream demand showing average performance, although winter fuel demand is anticipated to increase [2] Group 3 - Zhonghui Futures indicates that the methanol market remains under pressure due to high inventory levels, with port inventories at their highest in nearly five years [3] - The supply side is characterized by high operating rates of domestic methanol facilities, while overseas facilities have slightly increased their output [3] - The overall demand remains weak, with MTO external procurement facility loads slightly declining, and traditional downstream operations showing a slight recovery [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals shows a significant increase, particularly in methanol futures, which closed at 2292.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of 1.19% [1] Supply - Recent maintenance of some domestic facilities is expected to lead to a decline in operating rates. Notably, Iran's Marjan facility with a capacity of 1.65 million tons is currently offline, and Kavian's 2.3 million tons is planned for future shutdown. Additionally, U.S.-related vessels are facing special port fees, and some warehouses are refusing to accept Iranian and Venezuelan cargoes, which is anticipated to reduce future port arrivals [1] Demand - MTO (Methanol-to-Olefins) demand remains stable this week, with no planned adjustments in the short term for the olefins industry. Traditional downstream demand shows mixed trends, leading to a narrow range of price adjustments in the domestic methanol market, with average auction results [1] Inventory - As of October 22, 2025, China's methanol port inventory totals 1.5122 million tons, an increase of 20,800 tons from the previous period. Specifically, East China saw an increase of 30,000 tons, while South China experienced a decrease of 9,200 tons [1] Overall Market Outlook - According to WISCO Futures, the demand during the peak season has not materialized, and domestic inventories remain high. The weak market reality persists, although short-term pressure at ports has eased due to delays in unloading imported goods. Future price increases may be driven by expectations of improved conditions due to winter gas restrictions. A cautious approach is recommended [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The rebound of methanol on the previous trading day was mainly due to the significant strengthening of coking coal, which boosted the sentiment of the coal - chemical sector on the disk. The judgment on the fundamentals of methanol remains weak, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. Methanol valuation is relatively high, and the upward driving force is not strong [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On August 25, 2025, MA01 closed at 2424 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan or 0.79% from August 22; MA05 closed at 2402 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.76%; MA09 closed at 2308 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan or 0.61% [1] - **Spot Prices**: In different regions on August 25, 2025, prices in most regions increased slightly compared to August 22. For example, the price in Shandong was 2310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.43%, and the price in Inner Mongolia was 2082.50 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.24%. However, the prices in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei remained unchanged [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 126.50 yuan/ton on August 25, 2025, down 16.50 yuan from August 22 [1] 2. Coal and Natural Gas Prices - **Coal Prices**: On August 25, 2025, the prices of Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 decreased compared to August 22. For example, the price of Ordos Q5500 was 500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or - 1.96% [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: The profit of coal - based methanol remained at 373.70 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained at - 422.00 yuan/ton on August 25, 2025 [1] - **Downstream Profit**: The profit of Northwest MTO increased by 5 yuan to 107 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China MTO increased by 10.50 yuan to - 418.07 yuan/ton. However, the profit of acetic acid decreased by 5.50 yuan to 240.07 yuan/ton, and the profit of MTBE decreased by 50 yuan to 19.12 yuan/ton [1] 4. Market Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 rose strongly, opening at 2406 yuan/ton and closing at 2424 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 459,712 lots, and the open interest was 675,269 lots, showing increased trading volume and decreased open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol vessels arriving at port in the far - month was 258 - 268 US dollars/ton, and the reference negotiation price of cargoes from other Middle - East regions arriving at port in the far - month was + 0 - 0.7%. Some factories in other Middle - East regions were still selling far - month loading port cargoes [1] 5. Trading Strategy - The rebound of methanol on the previous trading day was mainly due to the significant strengthening of coking coal, which boosted the sentiment of the coal - chemical sector on the disk. The fundamentals of methanol are still weak, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. The upstream coal - based profit is still high, and the downstream profit is still poor, with room for repair. The methanol valuation is relatively high, and the upward driving force is not strong [1]

Report Summary of Methanol on August 18, 2025 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. Upstream coal - based profits are relatively high, while downstream profits inland are poor and have room for repair. Methanol is relatively over - valued. The actual impact of production cuts may be limited as old production facilities account for a small proportion, and the supply of inland coal - based methanol is gradually recovering. Downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories and limited demand for further inventory building. Port inventory is accumulating at a faster pace, pressuring spot prices in East China. After the weakening influence of coking coal sentiment, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2412 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (-0.94%); MA05 closed at 2387 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (-1.20%); MA09 closed at 2316 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-1.03%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Prices in regions such as Taicang, Shandong, and Guangdong decreased, with Taicang down 20 yuan/ton (-0.85%), Shandong down 5 yuan/ton (-0.21%), and Guangdong down 15 yuan/ton (-0.64%) [1]. - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Coal and industrial natural gas prices remained unchanged, with Buzhou Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 coal prices stable, and industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing unchanged [1]. - **Profit Situation**: Coal - based methanol profit was 440 yuan/ton, down 6.3 yuan/ton (-1.41%); Northwest MTO profit increased from - 11.00 yuan/ton to 44.20 yuan/ton (501.82%); East China MTO profit increased from - 550.07 yuan/ton to - 504.57 yuan/ton (8.27%); acetic acid profit decreased by 9.81 yuan/ton (-4.39%); MTBE profit decreased by 1.80 yuan/ton (-1.83%) [1]. 3.2 Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2601 oscillated downward, opening at 2440 yuan/ton, closing at 2412 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 486,683 lots and open interest of 623,445, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign**: An 850,000 - ton methanol plant in Southeast Asia is under maintenance, and a 600,000 - ton downstream plant is planned to be shut down for maintenance in mid - August. In the Middle East, multiple methanol plants are operating stably, and the total methanol loading volume in August has increased to 480,000 tons, an increase of 215,000 tons (81.13%) compared to the same period last month [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA oscillated weakly, closing at 2409 at night. Given the weak fundamentals, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1]. 2. Report's Core View The report has a weak outlook on the fundamentals of methanol, but believes that short - term policy expectations outweigh the impact of fundamentals. It suggests investors to stay on the sidelines for now. The methanol valuation is relatively high, and the anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production. Also, the high raw material inventory of downstream MTO enterprises will likely lead to continued destocking, which will suppress the spot price in East China [1]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 rose from 2497 yuan/ton to 2550 yuan/ton, a 2.12% increase; MA05 increased from 2428 yuan/ton to 2473 yuan/ton, a 1.85% increase; MA09 climbed from 2411 yuan/ton to 2480 yuan/ton, a 2.86% increase [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in regions like Taicang, Shandong, Guangdong, Shaanxi increased, while those in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Buhootes Q5500 rose from 450 yuan/ton to 452.5 yuan/ton with a 0.56% increase, and the price of Yulin Q6000 increased from 507.5 yuan/ton to 515 yuan/ton, a 1.48% increase. The price of Datong Q5500 remained stable [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1]. 3.2. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol and natural - gas - based methanol profits remained unchanged. The profit of Northwest MTO and Yiquge remained unchanged, while the profit of East China MTO decreased by 19.88%, and the profit of acetic acid decreased by 11.23%. The profit of MTBE increased by 20.83%, and the profit of formaldehyde increased by 3.73% [1]. 3.3. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated upwards, opening at 2417 yuan/ton, closing at 2480 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,252,918 lots and an open interest of 632,187 lots, showing increased trading volume and decreased open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: A 1 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country is shut down, and multiple plants are operating at their existing loads. The loading speed at the port is expected to improve in mid - to - late July compared to early July [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamental outlook for methanol is weak, but short - term policy expectations outweigh fundamental impacts. It is recommended to wait and observe temporarily. The valuation of methanol is relatively high, and there is room for the repair of inland downstream profits. The current high raw material inventory of downstream MTO enterprises makes port inventory accumulation likely, which will suppress spot prices in East China [1] Summary by Section 1. Price Information 1.1 Methanol Futures Prices - MA01 closed at 2497 yuan/ton on July 23, 2025, down 39 yuan/ton (-1.54%) from the previous day; MA05 was 2428 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (-1.34%); MA09 was 2411 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton (-1.87%) [1] 1.2 Methanol Spot Prices - Spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends. For example, in Shandong, it increased by 15 yuan/ton (0.66%) to 2290 yuan/ton, while in Inner Mongolia, it rose by 47.5 yuan/ton (2.39%) to 2037.5 yuan/ton. In contrast, in Taicang, it decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.21%) to 2410 yuan/ton [1] 1.3 Basis - The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 34 yuan/ton to - 87 yuan/ton [1] 1.4 Upstream Costs - Some coal prices were stable, such as Ordos Q5500 and Yulin Q6000, while Datong Q5500 increased by 5 yuan/ton (0.97%) to 520 yuan/ton. Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] 2. Profit Information - Coal - based methanol profit decreased by 6.3 yuan/ton (-1.48%) to 419.3 yuan/ton, while natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at - 540 yuan/ton. Northwest MTO profit dropped by 128 yuan/ton (-36.28%) to 224.8 yuan/ton, and East China MTO profit increased by 87.5 yuan/ton (11.49%) to - 674.07 yuan/ton. Some downstream product profits, like MTBE and formaldehyde, remained unchanged, while acetic acid profit increased by 18.71 yuan/ton (6.68%) to 298.79 yuan/ton [1] 3. Important Information 3.1 Domestic Information - The main methanol contract MA2509 declined, opening at 2457 yuan/ton, closing at 2411 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 866,930 lots, and open interest was 666,635 lots, with volume decreasing and open interest increasing [1] 3.2 Foreign Information - In a Middle - Eastern country, only one 1 - million - ton methanol plant is shut down, and multiple plants are operating at their existing loads. The estimated loading speed at the port in mid - to - late July is expected to be higher than that in the early part of the month [1] 4. Trading Strategy - After a slight decline in MA the previous day and a rise to 2469 in the night session, considering the weak fundamental outlook and the greater impact of short - term policy expectations, it is recommended to wait and observe [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - After the cease - fire agreement, the market's risk - aversion sentiment decreased, the geopolitical premium was quickly squeezed out, the domestic crude oil declined, and methanol also corrected. In the future, the market will no longer focus on the escalation of the conflict, and methanol will gradually return to its own fundamentals. Currently, the domestic methanol supply - demand change is small and the driving force is weak. The possible future impact lies in imports. Although the conflict has affected Iran's methanol supply, the overall arrival volume in South America is stable, and the high operating rate of inland coal enterprises has made up for the loss of Middle - East device maintenance to some extent. Last week, the port generally accumulated inventory. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate, and the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500 [1] Summary According to the Directory 1. Price and Basis - **Futures Prices**: MA01 in Taicang was 2413 yuan/ton (- 0.25%), in Guangdong was 2435 yuan/ton (- 1.22%); MA05 was 2325 yuan/ton (- 0.13%); MA09 was 2381 yuan/ton (- 0.50%) compared to June 27, 2025 [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, it was 2230 yuan/ton (- 1.33%); in Shaanxi, 2057.50 yuan/ton (- 0.36%); in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia, 1947.50 yuan/ton (- 0.38%) [1] - **Basis**: Taicang spot - MA was 377 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton [1] 2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Prices**: Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 430 yuan/ton, 490 yuan/ton, and 495 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: In Hohhot, it was 3.94 yuan/cubic meter; in Chongqing, 3.30 yuan/cubic meter. Both remained unchanged [1] 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: Coal - to - methanol in Chongqing was 493.40 yuan/ton, unchanged; natural gas - to - methanol was - 460 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - **Downstream Profit**: Northwest MTO was 562 yuan/ton (+ 2.07%); East China MTO was - 1183.07 yuan/ton (+ 19.69%); acetic acid was 347 yuan/ton (+ 21.00%); MTBE and Yilangtan remained unchanged; formaldehyde was - 262.40 yuan/ton (- 3.96%) [1] 4. Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated narrowly, opened at 2389 yuan/ton, closed at 2381 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 863081 lots and a position of 759974 lots, showing a reduction in volume and position [1] - **Foreign**: 90% of the methanol plants in a Middle - East country are restarting. Attention should be paid to the later start - up and shipping and loading [1] 5. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA oscillated in the range and closed at 2371 at night. Considering the current situation, the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the geopolitical tensions eased, methanol returned to its fundamentals and is likely to remain weak in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [10][34] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, affected by the easing of the conflict between Iran and Israel, methanol futures dropped significantly. By Friday afternoon's close, the weighted methanol futures closed at 2399 yuan/ton, a 4.99% decrease from the previous week. In the spot market, port methanol prices mostly rose, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2610 - 2820 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2440 - 2650 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market continued to rise, with the price in Ordos North Line in the main production area ranging from 1990 - 2033 yuan/ton and the receiving price in Dongying from 2265 - 2315 yuan/ton [12] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol output increased to 2,057,636 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 91.31%, a 3.00% increase. Some companies had new overhauls, but the overall recovery volume was greater than the loss volume due to some large - scale plants operating at full capacity [13][15] - **Downstream Demand**: As of June 26, the average weekly operating rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 80.13%, a 3.40 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, and chlorides increased, while those of formaldehyde decreased slightly [16][18] - **Inventory**: As of June 25, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 341,600 tons, a 7.02% decrease from the previous period, and the order backlog was 240,700 tons, a 12.08% decrease. The port sample inventory was 670,500 tons, a 14.34% increase [20][23] - **Profit**: Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples showed different trends. Coal - based methanol profits generally narrowed, while the economics of coke - oven gas - based and natural - gas - based methanol improved [24] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, methanol plant overhauls are more than restarts. It is expected that China's methanol output will be about 2.0052 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 88.98%, a decrease from last week [30] - **Downstream Demand**: The olefin industry's operating rate is expected to continue to decline. The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is expected to remain flat, that of glacial acetic acid is expected to increase, and those of formaldehyde and chlorides are expected to decrease [31][34] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 354,900 tons, a slight increase from last week. Port inventory is expected to decline as the import apparent demand may remain weak [34]