Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The rebound of methanol on the previous trading day was mainly due to the significant strengthening of coking coal, which boosted the sentiment of the coal - chemical sector on the disk. The judgment on the fundamentals of methanol remains weak, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. Methanol valuation is relatively high, and the upward driving force is not strong [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On August 25, 2025, MA01 closed at 2424 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan or 0.79% from August 22; MA05 closed at 2402 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.76%; MA09 closed at 2308 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan or 0.61% [1] - **Spot Prices**: In different regions on August 25, 2025, prices in most regions increased slightly compared to August 22. For example, the price in Shandong was 2310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.43%, and the price in Inner Mongolia was 2082.50 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.24%. However, the prices in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei remained unchanged [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 126.50 yuan/ton on August 25, 2025, down 16.50 yuan from August 22 [1] 2. Coal and Natural Gas Prices - **Coal Prices**: On August 25, 2025, the prices of Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 decreased compared to August 22. For example, the price of Ordos Q5500 was 500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or - 1.96% [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: The profit of coal - based methanol remained at 373.70 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained at - 422.00 yuan/ton on August 25, 2025 [1] - **Downstream Profit**: The profit of Northwest MTO increased by 5 yuan to 107 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China MTO increased by 10.50 yuan to - 418.07 yuan/ton. However, the profit of acetic acid decreased by 5.50 yuan to 240.07 yuan/ton, and the profit of MTBE decreased by 50 yuan to 19.12 yuan/ton [1] 4. Market Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 rose strongly, opening at 2406 yuan/ton and closing at 2424 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 459,712 lots, and the open interest was 675,269 lots, showing increased trading volume and decreased open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol vessels arriving at port in the far - month was 258 - 268 US dollars/ton, and the reference negotiation price of cargoes from other Middle - East regions arriving at port in the far - month was + 0 - 0.7%. Some factories in other Middle - East regions were still selling far - month loading port cargoes [1] 5. Trading Strategy - The rebound of methanol on the previous trading day was mainly due to the significant strengthening of coking coal, which boosted the sentiment of the coal - chemical sector on the disk. The fundamentals of methanol are still weak, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. The upstream coal - based profit is still high, and the downstream profit is still poor, with room for repair. The methanol valuation is relatively high, and the upward driving force is not strong [1]

Report Summary of Methanol on August 18, 2025 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. Upstream coal - based profits are relatively high, while downstream profits inland are poor and have room for repair. Methanol is relatively over - valued. The actual impact of production cuts may be limited as old production facilities account for a small proportion, and the supply of inland coal - based methanol is gradually recovering. Downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories and limited demand for further inventory building. Port inventory is accumulating at a faster pace, pressuring spot prices in East China. After the weakening influence of coking coal sentiment, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2412 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (-0.94%); MA05 closed at 2387 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (-1.20%); MA09 closed at 2316 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-1.03%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Prices in regions such as Taicang, Shandong, and Guangdong decreased, with Taicang down 20 yuan/ton (-0.85%), Shandong down 5 yuan/ton (-0.21%), and Guangdong down 15 yuan/ton (-0.64%) [1]. - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Coal and industrial natural gas prices remained unchanged, with Buzhou Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 coal prices stable, and industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing unchanged [1]. - **Profit Situation**: Coal - based methanol profit was 440 yuan/ton, down 6.3 yuan/ton (-1.41%); Northwest MTO profit increased from - 11.00 yuan/ton to 44.20 yuan/ton (501.82%); East China MTO profit increased from - 550.07 yuan/ton to - 504.57 yuan/ton (8.27%); acetic acid profit decreased by 9.81 yuan/ton (-4.39%); MTBE profit decreased by 1.80 yuan/ton (-1.83%) [1]. 3.2 Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2601 oscillated downward, opening at 2440 yuan/ton, closing at 2412 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 486,683 lots and open interest of 623,445, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign**: An 850,000 - ton methanol plant in Southeast Asia is under maintenance, and a 600,000 - ton downstream plant is planned to be shut down for maintenance in mid - August. In the Middle East, multiple methanol plants are operating stably, and the total methanol loading volume in August has increased to 480,000 tons, an increase of 215,000 tons (81.13%) compared to the same period last month [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA oscillated weakly, closing at 2409 at night. Given the weak fundamentals, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly [1].

一、行情回顾 昨日，甲醇期货09合涨7元/吨，报2397元/吨，现货涨2元/吨，基差-27。 二、基本面汇总 上周内地甲醇成交重心整体上行。以内蒙古甲醇为例，截至8月1日，内蒙古甲醇均价2047元/吨，环比 上升1.29%。 宏源期货：从估值上看，上游煤头利润仍然较高，沿海MTO利润小幅下滑，但内地下游利润仍然较 差，有修复空间，甲醇估值相对较贵；从驱动上看，反内卷政策对甲醇生产实际影响或有限，因为甲醇 生产装置中老旧装置占比较少，难以使甲醇供给有大幅减少预期，此外当前下游MTO企业原料库存较 高，难有进一步建库需求，港口继续累库是大概率趋势，对华东现货价格形成压制。近期焦煤情绪仍会 对甲醇产生影响，但基于偏弱的基本面，预计甲醇反弹空间有限。 截止7月份，CFR东南亚甲醇市场维持在332.50-333.50美元/吨左右区间。美国海湾甲醇市场95-96美分/ 加仑左右；FOB鹿特丹甲醇市场245.5-246.5欧元/吨左右。 受台风天气影响，7月甲醇进口卸货大幅不及预期，最终卸入110.69万吨，有20余万吨货物被动推迟至8 月卸货。 三、机构观点 宁证期货：国内甲醇开工高位上升，下游需求小幅上升，8月进口预期 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The rebound space of methanol is limited. From a valuation perspective, the upstream coal - based profit is still high, while the downstream comprehensive profit is relatively poor, making the methanol valuation relatively expensive. In terms of drivers, the supply - demand drive for methanol is not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. With the easing of the geopolitical situation, the restart of most Iranian plants, and the supplementation of inland and South American supplies, the tight spot situation in ports has been alleviated, and the basis may converge through a decline in the East China spot price. The 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and choose the opportunity to go long on MTO profit [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On July 3, 2025, MA01 in Taicang was 2450 yuan/ton (up 16 yuan/ton from the previous day, a 0.66% change), MA05 was 2366 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan/ton, a 0.77% change), and MA09 was 2414 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton, a 0.42% change) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: The daily average prices in different regions on July 3, 2025 were as follows: Shaanxi was 2090 yuan/ton (down 2.5 yuan/ton, a - 0.12% change), Sichuan - Chongqing was 2250 yuan/ton (unchanged), Hubei was 2315 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Inner Mongolia was 2017.5 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton, a 0.25% change) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA on July 3, 2025 was 5 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: On July 3, 2025, Ordos Q5500 was 430 yuan/ton (unchanged), Datong Q5500 was 490 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Yulin Q6000 was 490 yuan/ton (down 2.5 yuan/ton, a - 0.51% change) [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: On July 3, 2025, the prices in Hohhot and Chongqing were 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively, both unchanged [1]. 3.3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: On July 3, 2025, the profit of coal - based methanol was 433.40 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the profit of natural - gas - based methanol was - 460.00 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - **Downstream Profits**: On July 3, 2025, the profit of Northwest MTO was 343.80 yuan/ton (down 6.40 yuan/ton, a - 1.83% change), the profit of East China MTO was - 928.07 yuan/ton (down 46.00 yuan/ton, a - 5.21% change), the profit of acetic acid was 382.00 yuan/ton (down 5.50 yuan/ton, a - 1.42% change), the profit of MTBE was 146.28 yuan/ton (down 31.80 yuan/ton, a - 17.86% change), the profit of formaldehyde was - 233.60 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the profit of "Yilangtan" was 602.00 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. 3.4. Important Information - **Domestic Futures Prices**: On July 3, 2025, the main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated at a high level, opening at 2408 yuan/ton, closing at 2414 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 705,823 lots and an open interest of 706,992 lots, showing volume increase and position decrease. All contracts had trading during the trading day [1]. - **Foreign Information**: It is reported that 90% of the methanol plants in a certain Middle - Eastern country are in the process of restarting. Attention should be paid to the later start - up and loading and shipping arrangements [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that methanol may experience weak and volatile movements in the short - term. The valuation of methanol is relatively high as upstream coal - based profits are still high while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor. The supply - demand drive for methanol is not strong currently, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. With the easing of the geopolitical situation, the restart of most Iranian plants, and the supply from the mainland and South America, the tight supply of port spot has been alleviated, and the basis may converge through a decline in spot prices. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side trade and choose the opportunity to go long on MTO profits [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 increased from 2413 yuan/ton to 2420 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.29%; MA05 rose from 2325 yuan/ton to 2334 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39%; MA09 increased from 2381 yuan/ton to 2384 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.13% [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: The price in Taicang dropped from 2790 yuan/ton to 2540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.96%; in Shandong, it rose from 2230 yuan/ton to 2240 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.45%; in Guangdong, it increased from 2435 yuan/ton to 2445 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.41%; in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, there was no change; in Sichuan - Chongqing, it dropped from 2300 yuan/ton to 2250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.17%; in Hubei, it decreased from 2340 yuan/ton to 2325 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.64% [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA decreased from 377 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: There was no change in the prices of Ordos Q5500 (430 yuan/ton), Datong Q5500 (490 yuan/ton), and Yulin Q6000 (495 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: There was no change in the prices in Hohhot (3.94 yuan/cubic meter) and Chongqing (3.30 yuan/cubic meter) [1]. b) Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 493.40 yuan/ton to 433.40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.16%; natural gas - based methanol profit remained at - 460 yuan/ton [1]. - **MTO Profits**: Northwest MTO profit decreased from 562 yuan/ton to 527 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.23%; East China MTO profit increased from - 1183.07 yuan/ton to - 1054.57 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.86% [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Acetic acid profit increased from 347 yuan/ton to 351.75 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.37%; MTBE profit increased from 139.12 yuan/ton to 159.88 yuan/ton, a rise of 14.92%; formaldehyde profit increased from - 262.40 yuan/ton to - 233.60 yuan/ton, a rise of 10.98%; the profit of another product increased from 518 yuan/ton to 602 yuan/ton, a rise of 16.22% [1]. c) Market Information - **Domestic Market**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2380 yuan/ton, closing at 2384 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 819352 lots and an open interest of 756727, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Market**: It is reported that 90% of the methanol plants in a Middle - Eastern country are in the process of restarting. Attention should be paid to the subsequent start - up and shipping situation [1].

2025 年 06 月 24 日 甲醇：地缘缓解，偏弱运行 | 黄天圆 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 | Huangtianyuan022594@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 杨鈜汉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 甲醇基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 甲醇主力 （09合约） | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 2,504 | 2,529 | -25 493868 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 2,512 | 2,538 | -26 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 2,496,954 | 2,003,086 | | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 993,459 | 884,704 | 108755 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 7,867 | 7,925 | -58 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report recommends paying attention to short - selling opportunities after the rebound of methanol. Currently, the valuation of methanol is relatively neutral compared to its upstream and downstream. The fundamental outlook is bearish, with supply expected to increase in June due to high upstream profits leading to more restarts than maintenance in the mainland and the resumption of Iranian shipments, while demand has limited room for further improvement as MTO demand is at a high level and traditional demand is in the off - season with poor profits [5][45]. - The report suggests focusing on short - selling opportunities after the rebound, specifically in the 2310 - 2330 range for the 09 contract [5][45]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - From May 26 to June 6, the methanol price oscillated and rebounded. The main reasons were the rebound of oil and coal prices, and the impact of maritime new regulations on methanol unloading, which provided short - term upward momentum for methanol [5][10][45]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis in East China weakened slightly. On May 26, the basis in East China was 46 yuan/ton, and on June 6, it was 36 yuan/ton. The 09 - 01 spread remained stable. On May 26, the spread was - 69 yuan/ton, and on June 6, it was - 63 yuan/ton [13]. 3.3 Supply - side Analysis - **Cost and Operation**: The profit of coal - to - methanol production gradually declined, but remained relatively high due to the low coal price. As of June 6, the Qinhuangdao steam - coal closing price was 618 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from May 23, and the Datong steam - coal wagon - top price was 535 yuan/ton, unchanged from May 23. As of June 5, the weekly operating rate of coal - to - methanol enterprises was 80.3%, down 0.12 percentage points month - on - month and up 6.34 percentage points year - on - year; the weekly operating rate of gas - to - methanol enterprises was 49.53%, down 0.65 percentage points month - on - month and down 2.48 percentage points year - on - year. Methanol supply in June is expected to be relatively loose, with high domestic supply due to high coal - to - methanol profits and increased imports as most of the previously shut - down Iranian plants have restarted [15]. - **Inventory**: Methanol has gradually entered the inventory accumulation stage. As of the week of June 5, the inventory in East China ports was 29.26 million tons, up 4.5 million tons month - on - month and up 0.83 million tons year - on - year; the inventory in South China ports was 16.58 million tons, up 1.9 million tons month - on - month and down 1.01 million tons year - on - year; the inventory in the Northwest region was 23.45 million tons, up 1.85 million tons month - on - month and down 0.19 million tons year - on - year [22]. 3.4 Demand - side Analysis - **MTO Demand**: The demand for methanol - to - olefins (MTO) has limited room for further improvement. MTO is the largest consumer of methanol, accounting for over 50%. The profit of coastal MTO plants has declined slightly but remains at a relatively high level compared to previous years, while the profit of inland plants is relatively poor, limiting the upward space of inland coal - to - methanol prices. As of June 5, the weekly operating rate of downstream methanol - to - olefins was 84.55%, up 2.54 percentage points month - on - month and up 15.96 percentage points year - on - year; the weekly operating rate of enterprises using externally - purchased methanol to produce olefins was 85.13%, up 0.61 percentage points month - on - month and up 27.61 percentage points year - on - year [27]. - **Traditional Demand**: Traditional demand for methanol is generally weak. The traditional downstream industries of methanol include acetic acid, MTBE, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether, with consumption shares of about 5.59%, 5.65%, 4.84%, and 1.65% respectively. In the short term, the profit of traditional downstream industries is poor, and traditional demand is unlikely to provide positive factors [33].