电力弹性系数

Search documents
中电联:用电数据显示数字经济等新兴服务业迅猛发展
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-11 02:43
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that electricity consumption in China is growing at a rate higher than GDP growth, with an electricity elasticity coefficient around 1.2, indicating a strong relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth [1] - From 2018 to 2024, the electricity consumption growth rate in high-tech and equipment manufacturing industries is significantly higher than the average level of the manufacturing industry, with an annual growth rate of 8.0%, driven by the expansion of high-end manufacturing sectors [1] - The rapid expansion of high-end manufacturing, including new energy equipment, new energy vehicles, semiconductors, and advanced materials, is creating a new driving force for electricity consumption [1] Group 2 - From 2018 to 2024, the electricity consumption in the internet and related data services industry is growing at an annual rate of 19.2%, highlighting the rapid development of the digital economy [2] - The digital economy, represented by the internet, big data, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence, is becoming a significant driver of growth in the tertiary industry, with data centers and computing centers requiring substantial electricity [2] Group 3 - The electricity consumption in the charging and swapping service industry is growing at an annual rate of 74.3% from 2018 to 2024, which in turn drives an 11.8% annual growth in the wholesale and retail industry [3] - The growth in electricity consumption in the charging and swapping services is attributed to the increasing ownership of new energy vehicles, which is also accelerating the development of related service industries [3] - The ongoing push for carbon peak and carbon neutrality is leading to a gradual reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP, with a cumulative decrease of 11.6% in energy intensity over the first four years of the 14th Five-Year Plan [3]
中电联:预计2025年全社会用电量同比增长5%至6%
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-07-10 16:09
据中电联统计与数据中心主任侯文捷介绍,"十四五"以来,各年全社会用电量增速均高于不变价GDP增 速,我国电力弹性系数保持在1.2左右。电力弹性系数与产业结构转型、新旧动能转换、能源绿色转型 等存在密切的关系。比如,随着以互联网、大数据、云计算、人工智能为代表的数字经济高速发展,其 成为第三产业增长的重要动力。而数据中心、算力中心等支撑数字经济的核心基础设施需要消耗大量电 力,这就带来电力需求刚性增长。数据显示,2018年至2024年,互联网和相关数据服务业用电量年均增 长19.2%。 7月10日,中国电力企业联合会(以下简称"中电联")发布的《中国电力行业年度发展报告2025》(以下简 称《报告》)显示,综合考虑用电增长、电源电网投产等情况,以及气温等不确定性因素,预计2025年 全国电力供需形势呈现总体平衡态势。 从年内情况来看,今年以来,我国电力消费继续保持平稳增长态势。国家能源局6月20日发布的数据显 示,今年前5个月,全社会用电量累计39665亿千瓦时,同比增长3.4%,其中规模以上工业发电量为 37266亿千瓦时。从单月数据来看,自今年2月份以来,我国全社会用电量当月同比增速均在4%以上。 据中电联 ...
中电联预计今年全社会用电量同比增5%~6%
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-10 05:50
Group 1: Economic Growth and Electricity Consumption - The growth in electricity consumption this year reflects the resilience and vitality of the national economy, indicating stable economic operations despite pressures [1][2] - From January to May, the total electricity consumption reached 3.97 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, and monthly growth rates exceeding 4% in recent months [1][2] - The report forecasts a 5% to 6% year-on-year increase in national electricity consumption by 2025, with an overall balance in supply and demand expected [1][2] Group 2: Sectoral Electricity Consumption - In the first five months, the primary industry consumed 54.3 billion kWh, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 9.6%, driven by improvements in agricultural infrastructure [2] - The secondary industry consumed 2.59 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, while high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors saw a growth of 3.3% [2] - The tertiary industry consumed 740.6 billion kWh, with a notable year-on-year increase of 6.8%, particularly in the information technology and digital economy sectors [2] Group 3: Electricity Market Development - The national unified electricity market is expected to be preliminarily established by 2025, with significant progress in market construction and resource allocation [4][5] - From January to May, market-based electricity transactions reached 2.45 trillion kWh, accounting for 61.8% of total electricity consumption, with expectations to exceed 6 trillion kWh for the year [4] - The construction of provincial electricity spot markets and cross-regional trading has accelerated, enhancing the overall market framework [4][5] Group 4: Capacity Pricing Policy - The capacity pricing policy for coal-fired power plants has been implemented since 2024, providing stable revenue sources and encouraging investment in efficient coal power generation [6][7] - The average fixed cost recovery for coal power plants is estimated at 92 yuan per kW per year, with a total capacity electricity fee of 95 billion yuan expected in 2024 [6] - Recommendations for optimizing the capacity pricing policy include adjusting cost recovery ratios and clarifying fee-sharing mechanisms for cross-regional electricity transmission [6][7]
从历史Q1二产与居民用电双低年份看今年夏季煤价?
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-18 08:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [9]. Core Insights - Historical analysis indicates that years with low industrial and residential electricity consumption, such as 2013 and 2015, resulted in a low power elasticity coefficient in Q1. The main reasons for this were weak industrial electricity demand and warmer weather. However, both years saw a recovery in electricity growth rates throughout the year, likely due to a significant recovery in residential electricity consumption [2][7]. - The report forecasts that while high coal inventories at ports will take time to deplete, short-term coal prices may still be in a bottoming process. However, with the backdrop of power plant restocking and increased daily consumption from late May to late June, coal prices are expected to stabilize or even rebound [2][7]. Summary by Sections Weekly Tracking Summary - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 1.58%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.47 percentage points. The thermal coal market price at Qinhuangdao port was 614 RMB/ton as of May 16, down 16 RMB/ton week-on-week. The focus is on inventory depletion and domestic demand policy stimulation as summer approaches [6][19]. Power Coal Supply and Demand - As of May 15, the daily coal consumption in 25 provinces was 4.908 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.2%. The total inventory at power plants was 115 million tons, with a usable days count of 23.4 days, down 0.2 days week-on-week [20][38]. Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The first round of price reductions for coking coal has been implemented. The average profit per ton of coke at independent coking plants was 7 RMB/ton, up 6 RMB/ton week-on-week. The market is currently experiencing increased pressure on upstream shipments as the peak season approaches its end [21][47]. Company Highlights - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company announced a non-binding cooperation agreement regarding the acquisition of Highfield Resources Limited, with a cash investment of approximately 300 million USD [59]. - Lu'an Environmental Energy reported a raw coal output of 4.95 million tons in April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.21% [60]. - Shanxi Lanhua Technology announced a valuation enhancement plan to improve investor relations and increase share buybacks [61].