行业研究丨深度报告丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 从电力弹性系数出发，看长期煤炭需求韧性 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 需求韧性托底价，长线配置正当时。在电力弹性系数未来重回 1 以上的前提下，考虑到风光装 机增量阶段性达峰，核电增量有限、水电并无连续增量，则火电至少平稳，动力煤需求由此仍 具韧性，由此奠定了动力煤中长期投资价值。板块投资上，当前阶段，我们看好基本面困境改 善叠加"反内卷"主线下的攻守兼备投资性价比。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 庄越 韦思宇 宋楚 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 24 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Ti ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that electricity consumption in China is growing at a rate higher than GDP growth, with an electricity elasticity coefficient around 1.2, indicating a strong relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth [1] - From 2018 to 2024, the electricity consumption growth rate in high-tech and equipment manufacturing industries is significantly higher than the average level of the manufacturing industry, with an annual growth rate of 8.0%, driven by the expansion of high-end manufacturing sectors [1] - The rapid expansion of high-end manufacturing, including new energy equipment, new energy vehicles, semiconductors, and advanced materials, is creating a new driving force for electricity consumption [1] Group 2 - From 2018 to 2024, the electricity consumption in the internet and related data services industry is growing at an annual rate of 19.2%, highlighting the rapid development of the digital economy [2] - The digital economy, represented by the internet, big data, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence, is becoming a significant driver of growth in the tertiary industry, with data centers and computing centers requiring substantial electricity [2] Group 3 - The electricity consumption in the charging and swapping service industry is growing at an annual rate of 74.3% from 2018 to 2024, which in turn drives an 11.8% annual growth in the wholesale and retail industry [3] - The growth in electricity consumption in the charging and swapping services is attributed to the increasing ownership of new energy vehicles, which is also accelerating the development of related service industries [3] - The ongoing push for carbon peak and carbon neutrality is leading to a gradual reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP, with a cumulative decrease of 11.6% in energy intensity over the first four years of the 14th Five-Year Plan [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the overall power supply and demand situation in China is expected to be balanced by 2025, considering factors such as electricity consumption growth and power generation capacity [1] - The electricity elasticity coefficient in China has remained around 1.2 since the 14th Five-Year Plan, indicating a strong relationship with industrial structure transformation and energy transition [1] - The digital economy, represented by sectors like the internet and big data, is a significant driver of growth in the tertiary industry, leading to a rigid increase in electricity demand [1] Group 2 - In the first five months of this year, China's total electricity consumption reached 39,665 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [2] - The electricity consumption in the secondary industry during the same period was 25,914 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, showcasing the resilience of the economy [2] - The report forecasts a year-on-year growth of 5% to 6% in total electricity consumption by 2025, considering the current economic growth potential and macroeconomic policies [2]

Group 1: Economic Growth and Electricity Consumption - The growth in electricity consumption this year reflects the resilience and vitality of the national economy, indicating stable economic operations despite pressures [1][2] - From January to May, the total electricity consumption reached 3.97 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, and monthly growth rates exceeding 4% in recent months [1][2] - The report forecasts a 5% to 6% year-on-year increase in national electricity consumption by 2025, with an overall balance in supply and demand expected [1][2] Group 2: Sectoral Electricity Consumption - In the first five months, the primary industry consumed 54.3 billion kWh, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 9.6%, driven by improvements in agricultural infrastructure [2] - The secondary industry consumed 2.59 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, while high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors saw a growth of 3.3% [2] - The tertiary industry consumed 740.6 billion kWh, with a notable year-on-year increase of 6.8%, particularly in the information technology and digital economy sectors [2] Group 3: Electricity Market Development - The national unified electricity market is expected to be preliminarily established by 2025, with significant progress in market construction and resource allocation [4][5] - From January to May, market-based electricity transactions reached 2.45 trillion kWh, accounting for 61.8% of total electricity consumption, with expectations to exceed 6 trillion kWh for the year [4] - The construction of provincial electricity spot markets and cross-regional trading has accelerated, enhancing the overall market framework [4][5] Group 4: Capacity Pricing Policy - The capacity pricing policy for coal-fired power plants has been implemented since 2024, providing stable revenue sources and encouraging investment in efficient coal power generation [6][7] - The average fixed cost recovery for coal power plants is estimated at 92 yuan per kW per year, with a total capacity electricity fee of 95 billion yuan expected in 2024 [6] - Recommendations for optimizing the capacity pricing policy include adjusting cost recovery ratios and clarifying fee-sharing mechanisms for cross-regional electricity transmission [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [9]. Core Insights - Historical analysis indicates that years with low industrial and residential electricity consumption, such as 2013 and 2015, resulted in a low power elasticity coefficient in Q1. The main reasons for this were weak industrial electricity demand and warmer weather. However, both years saw a recovery in electricity growth rates throughout the year, likely due to a significant recovery in residential electricity consumption [2][7]. - The report forecasts that while high coal inventories at ports will take time to deplete, short-term coal prices may still be in a bottoming process. However, with the backdrop of power plant restocking and increased daily consumption from late May to late June, coal prices are expected to stabilize or even rebound [2][7]. Summary by Sections Weekly Tracking Summary - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 1.58%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.47 percentage points. The thermal coal market price at Qinhuangdao port was 614 RMB/ton as of May 16, down 16 RMB/ton week-on-week. The focus is on inventory depletion and domestic demand policy stimulation as summer approaches [6][19]. Power Coal Supply and Demand - As of May 15, the daily coal consumption in 25 provinces was 4.908 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.2%. The total inventory at power plants was 115 million tons, with a usable days count of 23.4 days, down 0.2 days week-on-week [20][38]. Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The first round of price reductions for coking coal has been implemented. The average profit per ton of coke at independent coking plants was 7 RMB/ton, up 6 RMB/ton week-on-week. The market is currently experiencing increased pressure on upstream shipments as the peak season approaches its end [21][47]. Company Highlights - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company announced a non-binding cooperation agreement regarding the acquisition of Highfield Resources Limited, with a cash investment of approximately 300 million USD [59]. - Lu'an Environmental Energy reported a raw coal output of 4.95 million tons in April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.21% [60]. - Shanxi Lanhua Technology announced a valuation enhancement plan to improve investor relations and increase share buybacks [61].