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插混“急刹车” 新能源市场重返纯电时代?
经济观察报· 2025-07-20 02:46
Core Viewpoint - The core change in the plug-in hybrid (PHEV) market is a return to rational growth, positioning PHEVs back as a "transitional technology" [1][3]. Market Performance - In the first half of this year, cumulative sales of PHEV models in China reached 2.521 million units, a year-on-year increase of 31.1% [2]. - From 2021 to 2024, the growth rates for PHEV models were 140%, 151.6%, 84.7%, and 84.5% respectively [2]. - In contrast, pure electric vehicle (EV) sales reached 4.415 million units in the same period, with a year-on-year growth of 46.2% [3]. Market Share Dynamics - In 2021, PHEV sales were 603,000 units, with a growth of 140%, while pure EV sales were 2.916 million units, growing by 161.5% [5]. - Despite the increase in PHEV sales, its market share decreased from 18.4% to 17.1% [5]. - By 2024, PHEV sales are projected to reach 5.146 million units, increasing its market share to 40%, while pure EV growth slows to 15.5% and its market share drops to 60% [5]. Recent Trends - In the first half of this year, the growth rate of PHEV sales sharply declined, dropping from 90.3% in February to 7.8% by June [6]. - Factors contributing to this decline include increased competition from pure EVs with ranges over 600 km priced between 150,000 to 200,000 yuan, improved charging infrastructure, and more favorable policies for pure EVs [6]. Future Outlook - Experts believe that while PHEVs are seen as a transitional technology, they still have significant growth potential in the next 3 to 5 years, with a market share possibly reaching 30% to 40% [9]. - Despite the slowdown in domestic growth, the overseas market presents new opportunities, with PHEV exports expected to reach 297,000 units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 190% [10]. Global Market Opportunities - The global automotive market is undergoing an "electrification reshuffle," and Chinese PHEVs are rapidly capturing various overseas markets due to their technological and cost advantages [10]. - Countries in Europe, such as Germany, have adjusted policies to include PHEVs in "environmentally friendly vehicle" subsidies, facilitating entry into high-end markets [10].