证券研究报告 京东集团-SW (9618 HK/JD US) 零售板块稳健增长带动收入超预期 华泰研究 中报点评 2025 年 8 月 15 日│中国香港/美国 互联网 京东 2Q25 营收同增 22.4%至 3,567 亿元，优于 VA 一致预期/华泰预测的 +15.0/+15.6%，非 GAAP 归母净利润 74 亿元，同比-48.9%，优于一致预 期/华泰预测的-58.8/-69.9%，主因零售板块经营利润释放好于预期和非经常 性损益及所得税情况好于预期。在外卖行业激化的竞争中，我们预计京东的 投入或在 3Q25 起进入效率优化阶段，但整体投入量级受季度总订单量环比 增长明显影响或继续维持在较高水平（2Q 估算为 130-140 亿元）。展望后 续，京东如何长效留存其通过国补行动与外卖业务探索获得的新用户并提升 核心客户的活跃度，将是其核心零售业务下一阶段增长的关键，建议持续关 注。维持"买入"评级。 活跃买家增长迅速，国补利好下带电品类延续加速增长 2Q25 京东零售总收入 3,101 亿元，同增 20.6%，经营利润 139 亿元，同增 37.9%，优于一致预期的同增 17.5%，主因国补带动的经营 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve a year-on-year revenue growth of 15.5% in Q2 2025, with a Non-GAAP net profit of approximately 4.5 billion yuan, driven by robust growth in GMV and retail revenue, particularly in the electric and daily necessities categories [1][2]. Group 1: Revenue and Growth Projections - Q2 2025 is projected to see a year-on-year increase in total revenue of 15.5%, with retail revenue also expected to grow by 15% [1]. - GMV and revenue are anticipated to maintain double-digit growth, with both electric and daily necessities categories showing steady growth [1][2]. - For the entire year of 2025, the company expects continued double-digit growth in retail revenue, supported by national subsidies and refined operations in daily necessities [1]. Group 2: Profitability and Margin Analysis - The retail operating profit margin is expected to remain stable year-on-year, despite increased investment in the new food delivery business [2]. - The Non-GAAP net profit for Q2 is estimated to be around 4.5 billion yuan, influenced by higher promotional expenditures during the 618 shopping festival compared to the previous year [2]. Group 3: New Business Development - The food delivery business has seen rapid growth since March 2025, with significant investments in merchant supply and delivery capacity, leading to a peak of over 25 million orders by early June [3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing synergy between the food delivery service and its core e-commerce operations, with cross-selling trends improving month-on-month [3]. - In Q3, the company plans to increase investments in the food delivery business, aiming for sustained order growth while improving unit economics [3].