Industry Overview - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts that global airlines will achieve a total net profit of $41 billion by 2026, marking a historical high, although the net profit margin will remain at 3.9%, unchanged from 2025 [3] - The Asia-Pacific region is expected to generate a net profit of $6.6 billion in 2026, with China and India leading regional growth, but the profit per passenger is low at only $3.20 [3] - Supply chain bottlenecks continue to hinder the growth of the aviation industry, with aircraft availability being a significant constraint [3] Express Logistics - Emerging market logistics demand is robust, with J&T Express in Brazil achieving record daily collection volumes during Black Friday, with non-platform customer orders increasing nearly 40% month-on-month [1] - The Mexican and Egyptian markets are also experiencing stable year-on-year growth of around 20% due to Black Friday demand overflow [1] Shipping and Ports - The U.S. has intensified pressure on Venezuelan oil tankers, which may lead to increased demand for compliant oil transportation [6] - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 7.8% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in shipping rates [6] - The BDTI index for crude oil tankers decreased by 1.9% week-on-week, while the BCTI index for product tankers fell by 6.5% [7] Airports - Multiple airports are experiencing significant growth in international passenger volumes, with Guangzhou Baiyun Airport seeing a 19.01% year-on-year increase [4][5] - The end of the 26-year operation of Duty Free Shoppers at Shanghai airports marks a significant change in the airport retail landscape [4] Road and Rail - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with rail freight down 2.35% and highway truck traffic down 1.75% week-on-week [9] - The Central Plains Expressway reported a 3.8% year-on-year increase in toll revenue for November 2025, indicating stable traffic growth [10] Investment Recommendations - The express delivery sector is expected to benefit from resilient e-commerce demand, with companies like SF Express and JD Logistics poised for growth [11] - The shipping sector is anticipated to see improved demand due to increased oil production and favorable economic conditions, with companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping being highlighted [12] - The aviation sector is advised to be monitored for potential long-term growth signals, with companies such as China Eastern Airlines and Hainan Airlines recommended for investment [13]

Industry Dynamics - The BDTI index for oil tanker rates decreased by 3.2% week-on-week to 1414 points, with VLCC TCE down by 6.9% [1] - SF Express launched an "overdue compensation" service, providing cash compensation for delivery delays caused by the company, starting from December 1 [1] - Zhongtong Express held a labor rules negotiation meeting to ensure 100% direct linkage of delivery and pickup fees for couriers, with a focus on income transparency and worker protection [2] Shipping and Port Operations - VLCC spot rates remain strong, with the TD3C route TCE reported at $122,000/day, up 151.4% since late August [4] - The BDI index reached a two-year high of 2845 points, driven by strong demand from Australian miners [5] - The SCFI composite index for Shanghai export container rates decreased by 0.4% to 1398 points [5] - The BCTI index for product tanker rates fell by 7.0% to 810 points [6] - The BDI index for bulk carriers increased by 12.5% to 2711 points, with BCI/BPI/BSI showing mixed results [6] - China's port cargo throughput increased by 8.43% week-on-week, while container throughput decreased by 0.27% [7] Logistics and Supply Chain - National logistics operations were stable from November 24 to November 30, with rail freight increasing by 0.74% [8] - Shenzhen International is expected to benefit from the transformation of logistics parks, providing performance elasticity [11] - The logistics sector is experiencing a favorable competitive landscape, with companies like Debon and Aneng Logistics showing strong profit potential [11] Investment Opportunities - The express delivery sector is expected to benefit from resilient e-commerce demand and a reduction in price competition, with companies like SF Express and JD Logistics poised for growth [9] - The oil transportation market is anticipated to improve due to OPEC+ production increases and potential interest rate cuts, with companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy recommended for investment [10] - The bulk shipping market is expected to recover, driven by environmental regulations and new iron ore supply from the Simandou project, with companies like China Merchants Energy and Hainan Airlines Technology highlighted [10] - The shipbuilding sector is entering a profit realization phase, with companies like China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation recommended for attention [10] - The aviation sector is showing signs of sustainable demand growth, with companies like China Eastern Airlines and Hainan Airlines Holdings suggested for early investment [11]

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China experienced a significant growth in business volume, with a year-on-year increase of 12.7% in September 2025, reaching a total of 168.8 billion packages delivered [1] - The average revenue per package showed a narrowing decline, with a reported income of 7.55 yuan per package, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.9% [1] - The overall express delivery revenue reached 127.37 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [1] Express Delivery Industry Data - The express delivery business volume maintained a rapid growth rate, with September 2025 seeing a total of 168.8 billion packages delivered, a 12.7% increase year-on-year, which is an improvement of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The single package price decline has slowed, with the average revenue per package at 7.55 yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year, but the decline is less severe than the previous month by 2.3 percentage points, and it increased by 2.4% month-on-month [1] - The total express delivery revenue for September 2025 was 127.37 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, an increase of 3 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Consumer Data - From January to September 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 36.59 trillion yuan, growing by 4.5% year-on-year, with September alone contributing 4.2 trillion yuan, a 3% increase [2] - The online retail sales of physical goods for the same period totaled 9.15 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, with September's online sales at 1.06 trillion yuan, up 7.3% [2] - The e-commerce penetration rate reached 25.0% for the first nine months, an increase of 0.48 percentage points year-on-year, with September's rate at 25.2%, up 1 percentage point [2] Listed Express Delivery Companies Data - Business volume growth varied among major express delivery companies, with SF Express leading the industry with a year-on-year growth of 31.8%, delivering 15 billion packages in September 2025 [3] - The average revenue per package for major companies showed an upward trend, with YTO Express, Yunda, and Shentong reporting increases of 1.4%, 0.5%, and 5% respectively in September [3] - Revenue figures for September 2025 indicated that SF Express, YTO Express, Yunda, and Shentong achieved revenues of 20.9 billion, 5.8 billion, 4.3 billion, and 4.6 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.2%, 14.9%, 4.1%, and 14.9% [3] Recommended Stocks - The recommended stocks in the express delivery sector include ZTO Express (02057), YTO Express (600233.SH), Shentong Express (002468.SZ), Yunda Holdings (002120.SZ), and SF Holdings (002352.SZ) [4]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry continues to experience high growth in volume, with significant performance variations among leading companies, while profitability is under pressure due to intensified price competition [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Performance - In Q2, the express delivery industry achieved a business volume of 505.1 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.3% [1][2] - Major companies' business volumes were as follows: Zhongtong 98.5 billion pieces, Yuantong 80.8 billion pieces, Yunda 66.5 billion pieces, Shentong 65.4 billion pieces, and Shunfeng 42.7 billion pieces [1][2] - Year-on-year growth rates for these companies were: Shunfeng 31.2%, Yuantong 21.8%, Zhongtong 16.6%, Shentong 16.0%, and Yunda 11.2% [1][2] Group 2: Market Share Changes - Market share changes showed Shunfeng increasing by 0.9 percentage points, Yuantong by 0.6 percentage points, Zhongtong decreasing by 0.1 percentage points, Shentong by 0.2 percentage points, and Yunda by 0.7 percentage points [2] Group 3: Pricing and Profitability - The average price per delivery in Q2 was 7.39 yuan, down 6.82% year-on-year and 3.52% quarter-on-quarter [2] - For Shunfeng, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.504 billion yuan, up 21.0%, with a net profit margin of 4.55% [2][3] - Zhongtong's adjusted net profit was 2.053 billion yuan, down 26.8%, while Yuantong's was 974 million yuan, down 6.8% [3] - Yunda reported a significant drop in net profit to 208 million yuan, down 66.9%, and Shentong's net profit was 217 million yuan, down 11.9% [3] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company maintains a positive outlook on Shunfeng's performance stability and is monitoring the ongoing price competition in the e-commerce express delivery sector [3]