华源证券近日发布交通运输行业周报：国家邮政局监测数据显示，10月21日至11月11 日，全国邮政快递企业共揽收快递包裹139.38亿件，期间日均揽收量达6.34亿件，是日常业 务量的117.8%。旺季单日业务量峰值达7.77亿件，刷新单日业务量纪录。快递市场规模持续 扩张，展现了邮政快递业对促进消费升级和实体经济增长的关键支撑作用。 1）国家邮政局召开座谈会持续强调旗帜鲜明"反内卷"。根据国家邮政局公众号，11月 10日-11日，国家邮政局分别召开企业协会座谈会和专家学者座谈会。在企业协会座谈会 上，中国快递协会和邮政集团、顺丰、中通、圆通、韵达、申通、极兔、京东、菜鸟、中外 运-敦豪、前海云途相关负责人围绕行业改革发展进行深入探讨交流。会议强调，要提升寄 递服务水平，践行以人民为中心的发展思想，巩固农村地区领取邮件快件违规收费专项整治 成效，旗帜鲜明"反内卷"。 2）2025年"双11"旺季快递业务量再创新高。国家邮政局监测数据显示，10月21日至11 月11日，全国邮政快递企业共揽收快递包裹139.38亿件，期间日均揽收量达6.34亿件，是日 常业务量的117.8%。旺季单日业务量峰值达7.77亿件，刷新 ...

Real Estate - The real estate sector has seen a decline of 0.2% this week, with new home transactions in 42 key cities totaling 1.54 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 38.7% [2] - The government has launched a plan to develop smart cities, aiming to establish over 50 fully digital transformation cities by the end of 2027 [2][10] - Various local policies are being implemented, such as Shenzhen's support for converting idle non-residential properties into affordable rental housing [2][10] Transportation - The express delivery sector is experiencing strong demand, with the National Postal Bureau emphasizing the need to combat "involution" competition [14][25] - Shentong has completed the acquisition of Danbird Logistics, which is expected to enhance its market share and service capabilities [15][25] - The shipping industry is benefiting from improved Sino-US trade relations, with expectations of increased demand for Panamax bulk carriers [16] Pharmaceuticals - Haitai New Light reported a significant revenue increase of 40.47% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by strong demand for medical endoscopes and optical products [29][30] - The company has a backlog of orders worth approximately 300 million yuan from US clients, indicating robust market demand [30] - The gross profit margin has steadily improved, reaching 66.55%, supported by the transition of production capacity to Thailand to mitigate tariff risks [31] Technology - Audiwei has achieved a revenue growth of 12% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with plans for H-share financing to enhance overseas expansion [33][34] - The company is benefiting from the upgrade of intelligent driving systems, which is increasing demand for its ultrasonic sensors [34][35] - Parallel Technology has reported a 69% year-on-year revenue increase, driven by its collaboration with Alibaba Cloud to promote domestic computing power and AI technology [37][38]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery industry shows resilient demand, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7% in September, indicating a steady expansion of the market [4][25] - The logistics sector is witnessing technological advancements, with JD Logistics planning to procure 3 million robots and 100,000 unmanned vehicles over the next five years, which may enhance supply chain efficiency [5] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from geopolitical factors and trade negotiations, potentially increasing demand for oil transportation and bulk shipping [6][10] - The aviation sector is experiencing growth, with a 10.8% increase in international flight volumes for the upcoming winter-spring season, reflecting a recovery in air travel [10][12] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - In September 2025, the express delivery business volume reached 16.88 billion pieces, a 12.7% year-on-year increase, with revenue of 127.37 billion yuan, up 7.2% [4][25] - Major players like SF Express and JD Logistics are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost control, with significant growth potential [14] Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market may benefit from U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, potentially increasing long-distance shipping demand [6] - The shipping market is expected to see a recovery driven by environmental regulations and geopolitical stability, with recommendations to focus on companies like China Shipping and COSCO [14][15] Aviation - The aviation industry is projected to maintain steady growth, with a 10.3% increase in total transport turnover and a 5.2% rise in passenger transport volume in the first three quarters of 2025 [10] - Airbus has opened a new A320 assembly line in Tianjin, marking a significant milestone in Sino-European cooperation [9] Road and Rail - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with rail freight increasing by 2.33% and highway freight truck traffic rising by 24.72% [13] - Strategic partnerships in the highway sector are being formed to enhance service offerings and operational efficiency [13] Overall Market Performance - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the transportation sector index increased by 1.12%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 2.88% [20][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The express logistics sector is experiencing resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profitability. The long-term outlook for e-commerce express logistics is positive due to healthy competition [3][13] - The shipping sector is expected to benefit from the OPEC+ production increase and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a notable improvement in VLCC freight rates anticipated in Q4 2025 [13] - The aviation industry is seeing stable demand growth, with supply chain issues leading to increased costs for airlines. The overall passenger demand is projected to grow by 10.4% in 2024, outpacing capacity growth [9][14] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In September 2025, major express companies reported improved performance, with YTO, Shentong, and Yunda achieving business volumes of 2.627 billion, 2.187 billion, and 2.110 billion pieces, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 13.64%, 9.46%, and 3.63% [3][27] - The average revenue per piece for these companies also saw increases, indicating a trend of rising prices in the express delivery sector [3][27] Shipping and Ports - The implementation of new port fees between China and the US is expected to create a dual market structure, granting strategic pricing power to compliant shipping capacities [5] - China has secured pricing power for iron ore, marking a significant shift in global commodity trade dynamics [6] - The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 12.9% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in shipping rates [7] Aviation - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that supply chain bottlenecks are delaying aircraft production, leading to increased costs for airlines, estimated to exceed $11 billion in 2025 [9] - Chinese airlines collectively oppose the US Department of Transportation's proposed flight restrictions, highlighting concerns over operational impacts [10] Road and Rail - National logistics operations were reported to be running smoothly, with significant increases in highway freight traffic [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to enhance electric vehicle charging infrastructure along highways by 2027 [12] Overall Market Performance - From October 13 to October 17, 2025, the transportation sector index increased by 0.73%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 1.47% [18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The current demand in the e-commerce express delivery sector is resilient, and the "anti-involution" trend is driving up express delivery prices, releasing profit elasticity for companies. Long-term positive competition opportunities are expected in the e-commerce express delivery sector. Companies like SF Express and JD Logistics are likely to benefit from cyclical recovery and ongoing cost reductions, with potential for both performance and valuation increases [13] - In the shipping sector, the outlook for crude oil transportation is favorable due to the OPEC+ production increase cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. The geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East may enhance VLCC freight rate elasticity. The shipping market is expected to improve significantly in Q4 2025, with recommendations to focus on companies like China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy [13] - The shipbuilding sector is in the early stages of a green renewal cycle, with shipping market conditions and green renewal progress being the core demand drivers. Despite a decline in new ship orders, shipyards remain busy. Factors constraining new ship market activities are expected to ease or improve, suggesting a potential profit realization period for shipbuilding companies [14] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery industry is experiencing a significant increase in business volume, with a year-on-year growth of 12.3% in the number of packages delivered [24] - Major companies like YTO Express and SF Express are showing strong growth in business volume, with SF Express achieving a remarkable 34.8% year-on-year increase [26] Shipping - The current week saw a slight increase in the Clarkson comprehensive freight rate to $28,977 per day, while the BDI index decreased by 4.3% to 1,941 points [44] - The crude oil transportation index (BDTI) decreased by 2.5% to 1,084 points, indicating a slight downturn in the market [44] Aviation - In August 2025, global air passenger demand grew by 4.6%, with a load factor of 86.0%, marking a historical high for the month [10] - The overall passenger transport volume for civil aviation reached approximately 75 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [55] Logistics - The logistics sector is seeing a positive trend, with companies like Debon Logistics and Aneng Logistics showing significant improvements in profitability due to strategic transformations and ecosystem optimizations [15] Ports - The total cargo throughput at Chinese ports reached 272.175 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 4.69% [71] - Container throughput also saw an increase of 8.84%, indicating a robust performance in the port sector [71]

Fixed Income - The bond market experienced significant adjustments in September, influenced by strong stock market performance and institutional behaviors, particularly in technology stocks, leading to expectations of economic recovery [2][8][9] - The current configuration of the bond market is highlighted as having substantial value, with a potential stabilization and a downward trend in bond yields anticipated [11][14][16] - The People's Bank of China has indicated a need for continued monetary policy support, with expectations for further interest rate cuts as economic data shows signs of weakness [10][14] Transportation - The express delivery sector is witnessing a price increase, with major companies raising rates in Shanghai, indicating a shift from price competition to quality-driven growth, which is expected to enhance profitability [22][23][34] - The shipping and port sector is recommended for investment due to improved industrial profits and a favorable macroeconomic environment, with specific attention to oil transportation and shipping companies benefiting from OPEC+ production increases [24][25][35] Media - The media industry is focusing on the professionalization and quality enhancement of group broadcasts, with initiatives aimed at cultivating high-quality content and innovative cultural promotion [5][6] Automotive - Tesla's upcoming FSD V14 release is anticipated to significantly impact the autonomous driving sector, potentially leading to a paradigm shift in technology and competition within the industry [5][6] Pharmaceuticals - The pharmaceutical company Sinopharm is strategically expanding its CKM pipeline, focusing on chronic disease management, with several products entering clinical stages, reinforcing its leadership in the Chinese market [6][7] Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - The renewable energy sector is facing a decline in new installations, but there is optimism for policy support for green hydrogen and methanol, which could drive growth in the coming years [6][7] Metals and New Materials - The copper market is expected to enter an upward cycle due to supply disruptions, with significant price increases anticipated as demand remains strong [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery industry is experiencing resilient demand, with a shift towards "quality over quantity" leading to price increases, which will enhance corporate profitability. Companies like SF Express and JD Logistics are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost reduction [4][13] - The shipping sector is anticipated to benefit from the OPEC+ production cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a notable improvement in the oil transportation market expected in Q4 2025 [13] - The aviation industry is projected to see long-term demand growth due to macroeconomic recovery, with short-term ticket booking data indicating a rebound [13] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is witnessing a significant price increase, with over 90% of regions in China experiencing price hikes, which is expected to improve profitability for companies [4] - Key companies to watch include YTO Express, Shentong Express, Zhongtong Express, and SF Express, all of which are positioned to benefit from the industry's positive trends [13] Shipping and Shipbuilding - The shipping sector is expected to see a cyclical recovery, particularly in oil transportation due to OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical uncertainties enhancing VLCC rate elasticity [13] - The shipbuilding market is in a green transition phase, with new orders expected to improve as market conditions stabilize [13] Aviation - The aviation sector is experiencing low supply growth with increasing demand, leading to a favorable long-term outlook. Companies like China Southern Airlines and Air China are highlighted for their potential [13][14] Logistics and Ports - The logistics sector is seeing a positive trend with companies like Shenzhen International and Debon Logistics expected to benefit from improved competition and operational efficiencies [13] - Port operations are stable, with a focus on cash flow and growth potential in hub ports like China Merchants Port and Qingdao Port [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The express logistics sector is experiencing a price recovery trend, supported by regulatory measures against unhealthy competition, particularly in Zhejiang province, which accounted for 16.9% of national express business volume in H1 2025 [5] - Zhongtong Express reported a 26.8% year-on-year decline in adjusted net profit for Q2 2025, influenced by price competition, despite a revenue increase of 10.3% to 11.83 billion yuan [6] - The air transport sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with a long-term supply-demand imbalance favoring price increases, while short-term booking data shows signs of improvement [17] - The shipping industry is projected to see a boost in oil transportation due to OPEC+ production increases and a favorable interest rate environment, with specific companies recommended for investment [18] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - The express logistics sector is seeing a robust demand, with a total of 164 billion packages delivered in July 2025, marking a 15.1% year-on-year increase [27] - Major express companies like YTO Express and SF Express are showing significant growth in business volume, with SF Express achieving a 33.69% increase in July [7][27] Air Transport - In July 2025, civil aviation achieved a passenger transport volume of 71.82 million, a 3.9% increase year-on-year, and a cargo volume of 86.7 thousand tons, up 15.3% [11][57] - The overall seat occupancy rate for major airlines was 83.06%, slightly down from the previous month [60] Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is experiencing fluctuations, with the BDTI index for oil transportation showing resilience amid geopolitical uncertainties [13][18] - China's port cargo throughput decreased by 2.82% to 26.135 million tons in the week of August 11-17, 2025 [81] Road and Rail - In July 2025, road freight volume increased by 3.28% to 36.99 billion tons, while rail freight volume rose by 3.35% to 4.52 billion tons [47]

Group 1: Express Delivery Industry - The State Post Bureau reported that in July 2025, the express delivery business volume reached 16.4 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, while the business revenue was 120.64 billion yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year [1][2] - The "old-for-new" policy continues to drive growth in the express delivery market, with companies actively expanding diverse demand scenarios to meet consumer needs for summer appliance deliveries [1][2] - From January to July, the express delivery business volume distribution among eastern, central, and western regions was 71.5%, 19.4%, and 9.1% respectively, indicating a trend of industry expansion towards central and western regions [2] Group 2: Industry Competition and Regulation - The Beijing and Baoji express delivery associations issued a "resist involution" initiative, promoting fair competition and urging companies to enhance core competitiveness and fulfill corporate responsibilities [2][3] - The Jiangsu Provincial Postal Administration announced plans to initiate an "anti-involution" campaign due to severe impacts from price wars, calling for compliance with legal requirements and the elimination of irrational competition [3] Group 3: Company Performance - Milky Way's 2025 semi-annual report showed a 13.12% year-on-year increase in net profit, with significant growth in distribution business driven by new platform expansions [4] - Debon Holdings reported a 11.43% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, but a significant drop in net profit by 84.34%, indicating short-term pressure on performance [5] Group 4: Aviation Industry - The China Air Transport Association released a self-discipline convention aimed at guiding high-quality development in the aviation industry, focusing on safety, service quality, and operational efficiency [6] - Direct flights between China and India are expected to resume after five years, potentially announced around the time of Indian Prime Minister Modi's visit to China [6] Group 5: Shipping and Port Industry - The potential ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the lifting of oil sanctions could significantly impact the crude oil tanker market, with two possible scenarios affecting supply and demand dynamics [7][8] - Brazil's iron ore exports have seen a notable increase, with July shipments reaching nearly 38 million tons, supporting the bulk shipping market [9] Group 6: Logistics and Transportation - Zhongyuan Expressway reported a 5.77% year-on-year increase in toll revenue for July 2025, with significant contributions from specific highway segments [13] - National logistics operations remained orderly from August 4 to August 10, with increases in both railway and highway freight transport [13]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The express delivery industry in China saw a business volume of 16.4 billion pieces in July 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.1%, with revenue reaching 120.64 billion yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year [4][25]. - The "anti-involution" trend in the express delivery sector is gaining traction, with associations in Beijing and Baoji advocating for fair competition and the cessation of irrational price wars [5]. - The logistics sector is experiencing a shift towards the central and western regions of China, with the proportion of express delivery business volume in these areas increasing [4]. Group 2: Company Performance - Milky Way reported a 17.4% increase in revenue to 7.035 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit of 352 million yuan, up 13.12% year-on-year [6]. - Debon Express achieved a revenue of 20.555 billion yuan in H1 2025, an increase of 11.43%, but faced a significant drop in net profit by 84.34% [7][8]. - The new management at Debon Express is expected to focus on improving service quality and operational efficiency, which may enhance revenue quality [8]. Group 3: Aviation Sector - The aviation industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with long-term supply-demand trends indicating potential growth [15]. - The release of the "Self-Regulation Convention for Air Passenger Transport" aims to promote high-quality development and fair competition in the aviation market [9]. - The restoration of direct flights between China and India is anticipated, which could enhance passenger transport volumes [9]. Group 4: Shipping and Port Operations - The oil tanker market may be influenced by the potential end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the lifting of sanctions on Russian oil, which could lead to a reduction in old tanker capacity [10]. - Brazil's iron ore exports have significantly increased, supporting the bulk shipping market, with July shipments reaching nearly 38 million tons [11]. - China's port cargo throughput increased by 10.87% week-on-week to 26.894 million tons, while container throughput rose by 19.58% to 679,000 TEU [78]. Group 5: Road and Rail Transport - Zhongyuan Expressway reported a 5.77% increase in toll revenue in July 2025, with total revenue reaching 411 million yuan [14]. - National logistics operations remained stable, with rail freight increasing by 1.29% and highway freight traffic up by 1.34% during early August [14].