Group 1: Consumer Sector Insights - The central economic work conference prioritizes expanding domestic demand, with "reward economy" expected to drive consumption growth, reshaping consumer behavior and enhancing supply-side requirements [2][6] - The "reward economy" is projected to boost the emotional economy market in China, with a forecasted market size of 23,077.67 billion yuan in 2024, potentially exceeding 45,000 billion yuan by 2029 [6] - The report identifies key consumer companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, including those in cultural IP, pet food, cosmetics, and food and beverage sectors, which are expected to thrive under favorable policies [6][7] Group 2: Intelligent Driving Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has conditionally approved two L3 autonomous driving models, marking a transition from technology validation to mass production in China's autonomous vehicle industry [11] - The autonomous driving market in China reached a scale of 330.1 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected growth to nearly 450 billion yuan by 2025 [11] - Eleven companies in the intelligent driving supply chain are identified, including Audiwei and Kaiter, which are positioned to benefit from this market expansion [11][12] Group 3: Construction Materials and Fireworks - The upcoming Spring Festival has led to renewed interest in investment opportunities related to fireworks, as policies shift from prohibition to restrictions, enhancing market attention [16] - The report highlights the potential for investment in companies like Guotai Group, which may benefit from these regulatory changes [16] - The IPO market is heating up, with companies like Yuxin Semiconductor receiving approval, indicating a positive trend for the construction materials sector [17] Group 4: Logistics and Transportation - The express delivery industry saw a 5% year-on-year increase in package volume in November, with significant performance variations among major players [21] - The report notes that the average price per package for major express companies has improved, indicating a recovery in profitability within the logistics sector [21][32] - The report emphasizes the resilience of the e-commerce logistics sector, with companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express expected to benefit from ongoing demand and operational improvements [32] Group 5: Shipping and Port Operations - The report discusses the impact of U.S. sanctions on oil tankers, suggesting that compliant oil transport markets may benefit from these geopolitical developments [27] - The Shanghai export container freight index has shown an increase, indicating a positive trend in shipping rates [28] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the shipping market, driven by OPEC+ production increases and a favorable economic environment [33]

华源证券近日发布交通运输行业周报：国际航空运输协会（IATA）发布全球航空业最新财务展望。尽 管航空供应链瓶颈持续存在，但行业盈利已趋于稳健。2026年全球航空公司预计实现总净利润410亿美 元，创历史新高，但净利率仍维持在3.9%，与2025年持平。2026年亚太地区净利润估算66亿美元，中 国和印度引领区域增长，但单客利润仅3.20美元，处于较低水平。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点： 一、行业动态跟踪 快递物流： 1）黑五新兴市场物流需求稳健增长，极兔速递巴西单日揽收量创新高。根据极兔节拍公众号，极兔巴 西在11月迎来订单规模双重突破：非平台类客户订单量较10月环比激增近40%，平台类客户订单量环比 提升约25%；与今年第三季度日均水平相比，平台类订单增幅高达80%。从年度维度来看，巴西市场当 前业务体量较去年同期已实现超200%的跨越式增长；与此同时，墨西哥、埃及等其他新兴市场同步承 接黑五消费外溢需求，保持着20%左右的稳定同比增长。 2）申通常德转运中心主体结构全面封顶，全面投产年处理包裹量可达50000万件。根据申通之声公众 号，湖南常德高新区的申通常德转运中心项目主体结构全面封顶。该项目总投资 ...

Group 1: Construction Materials Industry - The central economic work conference emphasizes "internal strength" and highlights the contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand" in the construction materials industry, indicating a shift towards supply-side reforms and potential investment opportunities in the cement sector [2][6][9] - The policy focus has shifted from "extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" to "increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts," suggesting a more gradual adjustment in demand-side policies for the upcoming year [2][6] - The cement sector remains the most valuable investment area within the construction materials industry, with expectations for a new round of supply-side reform [2][6] Group 2: Cosmetics Raw Materials Industry - The Chinese cosmetics raw materials market is projected to grow from CNY 1147.80 billion in 2019 to CNY 1603.90 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.9% [10] - The peptide raw materials market is expected to grow from CNY 11.2 billion in 2019 to CNY 21.7 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 14.1% [10] - Leading companies in the industry include Weiqi Technology and Jiakai Biological, with Weiqi holding a 6.6% market share in the peptide raw materials sector [10][11] Group 3: Transportation Industry - The logistics demand in emerging markets is showing robust growth, with Jitu Express achieving record daily collection volumes in Brazil [15][16] - The international air transport association (IATA) forecasts a stable profit outlook for airlines, with a projected total net profit of USD 41 billion in 2026 [18] - The supply chain bottlenecks continue to restrict the growth of the aviation industry, with a structural mismatch between demand and available aircraft [18] Group 4: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Industry - The pig price is expected to remain weak, with a recent increase to CNY 11.54/kg, but overall industry losses persist [31][32] - The central economic work conference has introduced policies aimed at stabilizing pig prices and enhancing farmers' income, indicating a shift towards protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation [32] - The chicken industry faces a "high capacity, weak consumption" dilemma, with leading companies likely to gain market share as they adapt to changing conditions [33]

Industry Dynamics - The BDTI index for oil tanker rates decreased by 3.2% week-on-week to 1414 points, with VLCC TCE down by 6.9% [1] - SF Express launched an "overdue compensation" service, providing cash compensation for delivery delays caused by the company, starting from December 1 [1] - Zhongtong Express held a labor rules negotiation meeting to ensure 100% direct linkage of delivery and pickup fees for couriers, with a focus on income transparency and worker protection [2] Shipping and Port Operations - VLCC spot rates remain strong, with the TD3C route TCE reported at $122,000/day, up 151.4% since late August [4] - The BDI index reached a two-year high of 2845 points, driven by strong demand from Australian miners [5] - The SCFI composite index for Shanghai export container rates decreased by 0.4% to 1398 points [5] - The BCTI index for product tanker rates fell by 7.0% to 810 points [6] - The BDI index for bulk carriers increased by 12.5% to 2711 points, with BCI/BPI/BSI showing mixed results [6] - China's port cargo throughput increased by 8.43% week-on-week, while container throughput decreased by 0.27% [7] Logistics and Supply Chain - National logistics operations were stable from November 24 to November 30, with rail freight increasing by 0.74% [8] - Shenzhen International is expected to benefit from the transformation of logistics parks, providing performance elasticity [11] - The logistics sector is experiencing a favorable competitive landscape, with companies like Debon and Aneng Logistics showing strong profit potential [11] Investment Opportunities - The express delivery sector is expected to benefit from resilient e-commerce demand and a reduction in price competition, with companies like SF Express and JD Logistics poised for growth [9] - The oil transportation market is anticipated to improve due to OPEC+ production increases and potential interest rate cuts, with companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy recommended for investment [10] - The bulk shipping market is expected to recover, driven by environmental regulations and new iron ore supply from the Simandou project, with companies like China Merchants Energy and Hainan Airlines Technology highlighted [10] - The shipbuilding sector is entering a profit realization phase, with companies like China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation recommended for attention [10] - The aviation sector is showing signs of sustainable demand growth, with companies like China Eastern Airlines and Hainan Airlines Holdings suggested for early investment [11]

证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 07 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 看好快递格局向好，航空供需结构向上 投资评级： 看好（维持） —交通运输行业周报（2025 年 12 月 1 日-2025 年 12 月 7 日） 投资要点： 一、一、行业动态跟踪 快递物流： 1）顺丰行业首推"超时赔付"服务。根据顺丰集团公众号，12 月 1 日起，顺丰于 行业内首次推出"超时赔付"服务，只要在小程序或 APP 等顺丰官方渠道下单顺丰 特快，若因顺丰运输原因导致的派送超时，客 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery sector is experiencing resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profitability. Companies like SF Express and JD Logistics are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and ongoing cost reductions, presenting dual upside potential in performance and valuation [14] - In the shipping sector, the outlook for crude oil transportation is favorable due to the OPEC+ production increase and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. The market for VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) is expected to see significant improvement in Q4 2025 [14] - The shipbuilding sector is in the early stages of a green renewal cycle, with shipping market conditions and green upgrade progress being key demand drivers. Despite a decline in new ship orders, shipyards remain busy, and the market is expected to improve in the second half of 2025 [14] - The aviation sector shows signs of a long-term bullish trend, with stable demand growth and tightening supply. Companies like China Eastern Airlines and Hainan Airlines are recommended for early positioning [14] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery industry is seeing a significant increase in demand, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9% in business volume and 4.7% in revenue as of October 2025 [24] - Major players like YTO Express and SF Express are expanding their market shares and improving service capabilities, with SF Express showing a 26.26% increase in business volume [31][24] Shipping - The VLCC daily earnings reached $120,248 in November 2025, a year-on-year increase of 270.9%, marking the best performance for November since 2004 [6] - The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) surpassed 2500 points, indicating a strong demand for bulk shipping, driven by increased shipments from Australian miners and adverse weather affecting port operations in North China [7] Aviation - In October 2025, civil aviation in China recorded a passenger transport volume of 67.83 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, and cargo transport volume of 91.7 thousand tons, up 13.4% [10] - Approximately 6000 Airbus A320 aircraft require urgent software updates due to safety concerns, which may impact operational efficiency [10] Port Operations - From November 17 to November 23, 2025, China's port cargo throughput was 26,401 million tons, a decrease of 0.62% week-on-week, while container throughput increased by 5.39% [72]

华源证券近日发布交通运输行业周报：国家邮政局监测数据显示，10月21日至11月11 日，全国邮政快递企业共揽收快递包裹139.38亿件，期间日均揽收量达6.34亿件，是日常业 务量的117.8%。旺季单日业务量峰值达7.77亿件，刷新单日业务量纪录。快递市场规模持续 扩张，展现了邮政快递业对促进消费升级和实体经济增长的关键支撑作用。 1）国家邮政局召开座谈会持续强调旗帜鲜明"反内卷"。根据国家邮政局公众号，11月 10日-11日，国家邮政局分别召开企业协会座谈会和专家学者座谈会。在企业协会座谈会 上，中国快递协会和邮政集团、顺丰、中通、圆通、韵达、申通、极兔、京东、菜鸟、中外 运-敦豪、前海云途相关负责人围绕行业改革发展进行深入探讨交流。会议强调，要提升寄 递服务水平，践行以人民为中心的发展思想，巩固农村地区领取邮件快件违规收费专项整治 成效，旗帜鲜明"反内卷"。 2）2025年"双11"旺季快递业务量再创新高。国家邮政局监测数据显示，10月21日至11 月11日，全国邮政快递企业共揽收快递包裹139.38亿件，期间日均揽收量达6.34亿件，是日 常业务量的117.8%。旺季单日业务量峰值达7.77亿件，刷新 ...

Real Estate - The real estate sector has seen a decline of 0.2% this week, with new home transactions in 42 key cities totaling 1.54 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 38.7% [2] - The government has launched a plan to develop smart cities, aiming to establish over 50 fully digital transformation cities by the end of 2027 [2][10] - Various local policies are being implemented, such as Shenzhen's support for converting idle non-residential properties into affordable rental housing [2][10] Transportation - The express delivery sector is experiencing strong demand, with the National Postal Bureau emphasizing the need to combat "involution" competition [14][25] - Shentong has completed the acquisition of Danbird Logistics, which is expected to enhance its market share and service capabilities [15][25] - The shipping industry is benefiting from improved Sino-US trade relations, with expectations of increased demand for Panamax bulk carriers [16] Pharmaceuticals - Haitai New Light reported a significant revenue increase of 40.47% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by strong demand for medical endoscopes and optical products [29][30] - The company has a backlog of orders worth approximately 300 million yuan from US clients, indicating robust market demand [30] - The gross profit margin has steadily improved, reaching 66.55%, supported by the transition of production capacity to Thailand to mitigate tariff risks [31] Technology - Audiwei has achieved a revenue growth of 12% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with plans for H-share financing to enhance overseas expansion [33][34] - The company is benefiting from the upgrade of intelligent driving systems, which is increasing demand for its ultrasonic sensors [34][35] - Parallel Technology has reported a 69% year-on-year revenue increase, driven by its collaboration with Alibaba Cloud to promote domestic computing power and AI technology [37][38]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery industry shows resilient demand, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7% in September, indicating a steady expansion of the market [4][25] - The logistics sector is witnessing technological advancements, with JD Logistics planning to procure 3 million robots and 100,000 unmanned vehicles over the next five years, which may enhance supply chain efficiency [5] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from geopolitical factors and trade negotiations, potentially increasing demand for oil transportation and bulk shipping [6][10] - The aviation sector is experiencing growth, with a 10.8% increase in international flight volumes for the upcoming winter-spring season, reflecting a recovery in air travel [10][12] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - In September 2025, the express delivery business volume reached 16.88 billion pieces, a 12.7% year-on-year increase, with revenue of 127.37 billion yuan, up 7.2% [4][25] - Major players like SF Express and JD Logistics are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost control, with significant growth potential [14] Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market may benefit from U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, potentially increasing long-distance shipping demand [6] - The shipping market is expected to see a recovery driven by environmental regulations and geopolitical stability, with recommendations to focus on companies like China Shipping and COSCO [14][15] Aviation - The aviation industry is projected to maintain steady growth, with a 10.3% increase in total transport turnover and a 5.2% rise in passenger transport volume in the first three quarters of 2025 [10] - Airbus has opened a new A320 assembly line in Tianjin, marking a significant milestone in Sino-European cooperation [9] Road and Rail - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with rail freight increasing by 2.33% and highway freight truck traffic rising by 24.72% [13] - Strategic partnerships in the highway sector are being formed to enhance service offerings and operational efficiency [13] Overall Market Performance - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the transportation sector index increased by 1.12%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 2.88% [20][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The express logistics sector is experiencing resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profitability. The long-term outlook for e-commerce express logistics is positive due to healthy competition [3][13] - The shipping sector is expected to benefit from the OPEC+ production increase and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a notable improvement in VLCC freight rates anticipated in Q4 2025 [13] - The aviation industry is seeing stable demand growth, with supply chain issues leading to increased costs for airlines. The overall passenger demand is projected to grow by 10.4% in 2024, outpacing capacity growth [9][14] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In September 2025, major express companies reported improved performance, with YTO, Shentong, and Yunda achieving business volumes of 2.627 billion, 2.187 billion, and 2.110 billion pieces, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 13.64%, 9.46%, and 3.63% [3][27] - The average revenue per piece for these companies also saw increases, indicating a trend of rising prices in the express delivery sector [3][27] Shipping and Ports - The implementation of new port fees between China and the US is expected to create a dual market structure, granting strategic pricing power to compliant shipping capacities [5] - China has secured pricing power for iron ore, marking a significant shift in global commodity trade dynamics [6] - The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 12.9% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in shipping rates [7] Aviation - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that supply chain bottlenecks are delaying aircraft production, leading to increased costs for airlines, estimated to exceed $11 billion in 2025 [9] - Chinese airlines collectively oppose the US Department of Transportation's proposed flight restrictions, highlighting concerns over operational impacts [10] Road and Rail - National logistics operations were reported to be running smoothly, with significant increases in highway freight traffic [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to enhance electric vehicle charging infrastructure along highways by 2027 [12] Overall Market Performance - From October 13 to October 17, 2025, the transportation sector index increased by 0.73%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 1.47% [18]