证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 09 月 30 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年09月29日 华源晨会精粹 20250929 固定收益 10 月债市怎么看？——10 月债市投资策略：9 月债市调整较明显，与股 市强势及债基等机构行为等有关。9 月债市走势偏离资金面及经济基本面，主要是由 于 1）三季度股市显著上涨，特别是科技股涨幅大，使得部分投资者预期经济可能复 苏；2）年金等机构资金大幅加仓股票，使得部分机构资金从债市流向股市；3）公 募基金监管规则的冲击，惩罚性赎回费规则可能使得理财等机构大幅赎回债基，阶 段性冲击债市；4）部分银行 9 月卖老券释放浮盈以调节三季报业绩，且 9 月份政府 债券发行量较大。今年债市主要靠银行自营加大配置。当前，政策利率进一步下调 的条件或已初步具备。当前，债市配置价值突出，有望自发地企稳，债券收益率或 震荡下行。债市走势可能阶段性与基本面脱钩，但无法长期脱钩。我们认为，年内 10Y 国债（8 月 8 日之前发行的活跃券）收益率仍可能重回 1.65%左右。股市后续 走势也可能影响债市行情节奏。 风险提示：出口可能超预期 ...

证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 09 月 29 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 联系人 板块表现： 国庆中秋假期出行有望迎来景气 投资评级： 看好（维持） —交通运输行业周报（2025 年 9 月 22 日-2025 年 9 月 28 日） 投资要点： 一、行业动态跟踪 快递物流： 1）"通达兔"快递企业宣布上调上海市电商快递价格，全国快递涨价区域已达 93%。 根据东方网， 9 月 22 日极兔、中通、圆通、申通、韵达宣布上调上海地区快递收 件价格，电商件单票价格上涨 0.2-0. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The express logistics sector is experiencing a price recovery trend, supported by regulatory measures against unhealthy competition, particularly in Zhejiang province, which accounted for 16.9% of national express business volume in H1 2025 [5] - Zhongtong Express reported a 26.8% year-on-year decline in adjusted net profit for Q2 2025, influenced by price competition, despite a revenue increase of 10.3% to 11.83 billion yuan [6] - The air transport sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with a long-term supply-demand imbalance favoring price increases, while short-term booking data shows signs of improvement [17] - The shipping industry is projected to see a boost in oil transportation due to OPEC+ production increases and a favorable interest rate environment, with specific companies recommended for investment [18] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - The express logistics sector is seeing a robust demand, with a total of 164 billion packages delivered in July 2025, marking a 15.1% year-on-year increase [27] - Major express companies like YTO Express and SF Express are showing significant growth in business volume, with SF Express achieving a 33.69% increase in July [7][27] Air Transport - In July 2025, civil aviation achieved a passenger transport volume of 71.82 million, a 3.9% increase year-on-year, and a cargo volume of 86.7 thousand tons, up 15.3% [11][57] - The overall seat occupancy rate for major airlines was 83.06%, slightly down from the previous month [60] Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is experiencing fluctuations, with the BDTI index for oil transportation showing resilience amid geopolitical uncertainties [13][18] - China's port cargo throughput decreased by 2.82% to 26.135 million tons in the week of August 11-17, 2025 [81] Road and Rail - In July 2025, road freight volume increased by 3.28% to 36.99 billion tons, while rail freight volume rose by 3.35% to 4.52 billion tons [47]

Group 1: Express Delivery Industry - The State Post Bureau reported that in July 2025, the express delivery business volume reached 16.4 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, while the business revenue was 120.64 billion yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year [1][2] - The "old-for-new" policy continues to drive growth in the express delivery market, with companies actively expanding diverse demand scenarios to meet consumer needs for summer appliance deliveries [1][2] - From January to July, the express delivery business volume distribution among eastern, central, and western regions was 71.5%, 19.4%, and 9.1% respectively, indicating a trend of industry expansion towards central and western regions [2] Group 2: Industry Competition and Regulation - The Beijing and Baoji express delivery associations issued a "resist involution" initiative, promoting fair competition and urging companies to enhance core competitiveness and fulfill corporate responsibilities [2][3] - The Jiangsu Provincial Postal Administration announced plans to initiate an "anti-involution" campaign due to severe impacts from price wars, calling for compliance with legal requirements and the elimination of irrational competition [3] Group 3: Company Performance - Milky Way's 2025 semi-annual report showed a 13.12% year-on-year increase in net profit, with significant growth in distribution business driven by new platform expansions [4] - Debon Holdings reported a 11.43% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, but a significant drop in net profit by 84.34%, indicating short-term pressure on performance [5] Group 4: Aviation Industry - The China Air Transport Association released a self-discipline convention aimed at guiding high-quality development in the aviation industry, focusing on safety, service quality, and operational efficiency [6] - Direct flights between China and India are expected to resume after five years, potentially announced around the time of Indian Prime Minister Modi's visit to China [6] Group 5: Shipping and Port Industry - The potential ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the lifting of oil sanctions could significantly impact the crude oil tanker market, with two possible scenarios affecting supply and demand dynamics [7][8] - Brazil's iron ore exports have seen a notable increase, with July shipments reaching nearly 38 million tons, supporting the bulk shipping market [9] Group 6: Logistics and Transportation - Zhongyuan Expressway reported a 5.77% year-on-year increase in toll revenue for July 2025, with significant contributions from specific highway segments [13] - National logistics operations remained orderly from August 4 to August 10, with increases in both railway and highway freight transport [13]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The express delivery industry in China saw a business volume of 16.4 billion pieces in July 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.1%, with revenue reaching 120.64 billion yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year [4][25]. - The "anti-involution" trend in the express delivery sector is gaining traction, with associations in Beijing and Baoji advocating for fair competition and the cessation of irrational price wars [5]. - The logistics sector is experiencing a shift towards the central and western regions of China, with the proportion of express delivery business volume in these areas increasing [4]. Group 2: Company Performance - Milky Way reported a 17.4% increase in revenue to 7.035 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit of 352 million yuan, up 13.12% year-on-year [6]. - Debon Express achieved a revenue of 20.555 billion yuan in H1 2025, an increase of 11.43%, but faced a significant drop in net profit by 84.34% [7][8]. - The new management at Debon Express is expected to focus on improving service quality and operational efficiency, which may enhance revenue quality [8]. Group 3: Aviation Sector - The aviation industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with long-term supply-demand trends indicating potential growth [15]. - The release of the "Self-Regulation Convention for Air Passenger Transport" aims to promote high-quality development and fair competition in the aviation market [9]. - The restoration of direct flights between China and India is anticipated, which could enhance passenger transport volumes [9]. Group 4: Shipping and Port Operations - The oil tanker market may be influenced by the potential end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the lifting of sanctions on Russian oil, which could lead to a reduction in old tanker capacity [10]. - Brazil's iron ore exports have significantly increased, supporting the bulk shipping market, with July shipments reaching nearly 38 million tons [11]. - China's port cargo throughput increased by 10.87% week-on-week to 26.894 million tons, while container throughput rose by 19.58% to 679,000 TEU [78]. Group 5: Road and Rail Transport - Zhongyuan Expressway reported a 5.77% increase in toll revenue in July 2025, with total revenue reaching 411 million yuan [14]. - National logistics operations remained stable, with rail freight increasing by 1.29% and highway freight traffic up by 1.34% during early August [14].

Group 1: Express Delivery Industry - Guangdong Province has implemented a price increase for express delivery, raising the base price by 0.4 yuan per ticket, with the average price exceeding 1.4 yuan [2][3] - Major express companies, particularly the "Tongda system," began raising prices on August 5, with increases of 0.4 to 0.5 yuan for special items weighing 0.1 kg, and an additional 0.1 yuan per 0.1 kg increase [2][3] - In the first half of 2025, Guangdong Province's express delivery volume reached 23.43 billion pieces, accounting for 24.5% of the national total, indicating a significant market share [2] Group 2: Autonomous Delivery Vehicles - The deployment of autonomous delivery vehicles is progressing, with Zhongtong and Yuantong launching operations in Tibet and Hainan, respectively [3] - Zhongtong's autonomous vehicle in Tibet has successfully completed testing and is now operating on a regular delivery route, overcoming challenges posed by the region's climate [3] - Yuantong has received 24 autonomous vehicles for operations in Hainan, marking a new phase in the company's technological upgrade [3] Group 3: Aviation Industry - South Korea will implement a temporary visa exemption for Chinese group tourists from September 29 to June 30, 2024, which is expected to boost travel between China and South Korea [4] - China Civil Aviation Information Network anticipates a net profit of 1.45 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase, driven by stable growth in aviation information technology services [5] Group 4: Shipping and Port Operations - Cheniere Energy plans to double its LNG production capacity, potentially benefiting the demand for new LNG vessels, with an expected annual output exceeding 100 million tons by 2030 [6] - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has decreased by 3.9% week-on-week, indicating a decline in export container freight rates [6] - The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) has increased by 8.49% week-on-week, reflecting a rise in crude oil tanker rates [7] Group 5: Road and Rail Transport - Zhongyuan Expressway reported a 7.68% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of approximately 3.105 billion yuan [10] - The Daqin Railway achieved a 5.40% year-on-year increase in cargo transport volume in July 2025, with an average daily transport volume of 1.0255 million tons [11] - National logistics operations remained stable from July 28 to August 3, with a slight decrease in freight transport volumes [11] Group 6: Industry Outlook - The express delivery sector is expected to benefit from a rebound in e-commerce demand and a reduction in price competition, leading to improved profitability for major players like SF Express and JD Logistics [12][13] - The shipping industry is anticipated to see growth driven by OPEC+ production increases and a favorable macroeconomic environment, with recommendations to monitor companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping [14][15] - The port sector is viewed as stable with strong cash flow, suggesting a focus on growth potential in key hub ports [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the ongoing price increase in express delivery services in Guangdong, with a base price adjustment of 0.4 CNY per ticket, indicating a significant shift in the industry towards reducing competition and improving profitability [4] - The introduction of autonomous delivery vehicles by companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong is progressing, showcasing innovation in logistics [5] - The report notes that South Korea will implement a visa waiver for Chinese group tourists starting September 29, which is expected to boost passenger flow between China and South Korea [6] - The LNG export capacity in the U.S. is set to double, which may positively impact the demand for new LNG vessels [7][8] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - Guangdong's express delivery price increase is a significant development, with the average price rising to over 1.4 CNY per ticket, and the province accounting for 24.5% of the national express delivery volume [4] - The report emphasizes the resilience of e-commerce logistics demand and the potential for price increases to enhance profitability for major players like SF Express and JD Logistics [14] Aviation and Airports - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with a long-term supply-demand imbalance favoring growth [14] - China Civil Aviation Information Network anticipates a net profit of 1.45 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase [6] Shipping and Ports - The report indicates a decrease in shipping rates, with the SCFI index dropping by 3.9% to 1490 points, while oil tanker rates have increased significantly [8][9] - China's port cargo throughput decreased by 4.99% week-on-week, indicating a potential slowdown in trade activity [10][81] Road and Rail - The report notes that Zhongyuan Expressway's net profit increased by 7.68% year-on-year, despite pressure on toll revenues [11] - The Daqin Railway reported a 5.40% year-on-year increase in cargo transport volume for July 2025 [12] Overall Market Performance - From August 4 to August 8, the A-share transportation index rose by 1.96%, with express delivery and logistics sectors showing strong performance [19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the ongoing consolidation in the express delivery sector, with Shentong Express planning to acquire Daniao Logistics for 362 million yuan, aiming to enhance its market position and differentiate itself from competitors [5] - The report emphasizes the recovery in air travel demand and the potential for long-term growth in the aviation sector, driven by macroeconomic improvements and a favorable supply-demand dynamic [13] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from rising oil transport demand due to OPEC+ production increases and a favorable interest rate environment, with a positive outlook for dry bulk shipping as well [14] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - Shentong Express is set to acquire Daniao Logistics for 362 million yuan, which is expected to enhance its market share by 0.8 percentage points and improve brand influence [5] - The express delivery sector shows resilient demand, with terminal prices at historical lows, limiting further downside [13] - Key companies to watch include Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, and SF Express, which are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost control [13] Aviation - The aviation sector is experiencing low long-term supply growth, but demand is anticipated to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance [13] - The report notes that the overall passenger transport volume in civil aviation reached 370 million in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6% [7] - Key companies to focus on include China Southern Airlines, Air China, and HNA Group [13] Shipping - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached a new high of 2258 points, up 119% year-to-date, driven by improved consumption expectations and seasonal factors [9] - The report suggests a positive outlook for oil transportation due to OPEC+ production increases and a favorable interest rate environment [14] - Companies to watch include China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping [14] Ports - China's port cargo throughput increased by 2.43% week-on-week, reaching 26.677 million tons, while container throughput rose by 2.61% to 6.64 million TEU [12][77] - The report highlights the stable cash flow and growth potential of port operations, suggesting a focus on companies like Tangshan Port and Qingdao Port [14] Road and Rail - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with rail freight volume increasing by 1.11% and highway freight traffic up by 0.67% [12] - The report indicates that road passenger traffic decreased by 3.92%, while freight volume increased by 2.86% [45]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery sector shows significant divergence in June data, with a focus on the industry's anti-involution process [3] - The express logistics market is expanding, supported by the national strategy to boost domestic demand, with a year-on-year growth of 15.8% in express delivery volume in June 2025 [5] - The performance of major express companies varies, with SF Express maintaining a business volume growth rate of over 30%, while other companies like YTO Express and Yunda Express show slower growth [4][5] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In June 2025, the total express delivery volume reached 16.87 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, with total revenue of 126.32 billion yuan, up 9.0% [5][24] - Major express companies' performance in June: YTO Express (2.627 billion pieces, +19.34%), Yunda Express (2.173 billion pieces, +7.41%), SF Express (1.460 billion pieces, +31.77%) [4][28] - The market share for these companies is 15.6% for YTO, 12.9% for both Yunda and Shentong, and 8.7% for SF Express [4] Air Transportation - The air travel sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4% in passenger transport volume in June 2025 [52] - Major airlines are projected to improve their performance in Q2 2025 due to better supply-demand dynamics and lower oil prices [8] Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is anticipated to benefit from OPEC+ production increases and a favorable economic environment, with a focus on crude oil transportation [16] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 27.8% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in the bulk shipping market [11][68] - Container throughput at Chinese ports showed a slight increase in cargo volume but a decrease in container throughput [81] Road and Rail - In June 2025, road freight volume increased by 2.86% year-on-year, while rail freight volume rose by 7.36% [45] - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with a slight increase in freight truck traffic [14] Supply Chain Logistics - Companies like Shenzhen International and Debon Logistics are expected to benefit from strategic transformations and improved profitability [15]

Fixed Income - Credit spreads are expected to have further compression potential, with most industries showing a slight decrease in credit spreads except for the AA agricultural sector which saw a minor increase of 3 basis points [2][6][8] - The yield on 3-5 year perpetual bonds may gradually approach the interest rates of major banks' 3-5 year fixed deposits, indicating that credit spreads may still have room for compression [2][8] Transportation - The State Post Bureau opposes "involution" competition in the express delivery industry, which may lead to high-quality development opportunities [10][11] - Major express companies like Zhongtong, Yuantong, Yunda, and Shentong have seen a decline in single ticket revenue year-on-year, with decreases of -7.8%, -6.4%, -10.1%, and -6.2% respectively in Q1 2025 [11] Media - The upcoming mid-year report disclosures may present trading opportunities, with high-frequency data expected to maintain an upward trend if no turning points are observed [28] - The gaming sector is highlighted, with major titles from companies like Tencent and Giant Network performing well in the market, indicating potential for value reassessment [30][34] North Exchange - The cultural and IP economy is thriving, with the market size of the national trend economy reaching 2.05 trillion yuan in 2023 and expected to exceed 3 trillion yuan by 2028 [23][24] - The Chinese trend toy market is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 35.11% from 2020 to 2024, surpassing the global average [24] Pharmaceutical - The pharmaceutical index rose by 1.82%, with innovative drug companies showing strong performance, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6][19] - Business development (BD) transactions are expected to become a regular source of income and profit for traditional pharmaceutical companies, enhancing their international revenue share [19] Overall Market Data - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,519.65, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 7.88% [3] - The North Exchange consumption service sector saw a median stock price change of +1.29%, with 25 companies experiencing increases [25]