电商 Agent 进展 20260115 摘要 千问 Agent 在本地生活服务（如交通、线下购物）中应用效果较好，但 在重度电商和外卖领域难以满足用户需求，因用户需要高频浏览和反复 比较，Agent 难以替代。闲鱼用户对价格敏感但不在意时间消耗， Agent 可帮助找到信誉度高且价格低廉的商品，适合导入千问 Agent。 千问 Agent 通过 API 与自身业务交互，提升体验效率，优于通过读取 UI 界面的豆包助手。字节跳动可能认为暂时不宜推出重度电商应用，而千 问 Agent 当前形态更符合市场需求。未来千问 Agent 需针对不同场景 优化体验，明确品牌和用户定位。 国内市场对 AI 助手需求低于发达国家，但仍有市场价值。字节跳动通过 豆包 APP 深耕垂直场景，积累日活用户，为电商和本地生活服务奠定基 础。阿里巴巴推出与自身业务互通的 Agent，满足国内用户对具体功能 型应用的需求。 腾讯面临模型开发进展缓慢的问题，需解决模型能力及政策适应性。字 节跳动通过豆包 APP 深耕垂直场景，阿里则通过千问 Agent 直接切入 C 端市场。豆包通过分功能、分场景接触用户，提高留存率，而千问以通 用 Ag ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformative impact of AI-driven e-commerce agents, predicting that by 2030, the GMV of agent-based e-commerce will reach $385 billion, accounting for 20% of total U.S. e-commerce sales [1][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - The shift from traditional retail to AI-driven platforms is evident, with 36% of users completing purchases based on AI recommendations, indicating a significant commercial conversion potential [1][8]. - Major tech companies like Alibaba and OpenAI are competing to establish themselves as the primary entry points for consumers, with Alibaba's "Qianwen APP" and OpenAI's shopping search functionality leading the charge [3][4]. Group 2: User Engagement - Current data shows that 30-40% of AI users have made purchases based on platform suggestions, demonstrating a growing trend in consumer behavior towards AI-assisted shopping [1][5]. - The adoption rates of general AI platforms like ChatGPT (45%) far exceed those of retail-specific AI tools (around 10%), indicating a preference for versatile AI solutions among consumers [6]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The growth of agent-based e-commerce is expected to benefit major tech giants such as Google, Amazon, and Meta, reinforcing their long-term growth narratives [2][9]. - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating on these companies, with target prices set at $330 for Alphabet, $315 for Amazon, and $820 for Meta, based on their potential in AI-driven innovations and market share growth [10][11][12].