Report Summary - **Report Title**: "沪铜日评20251205:非美地区电解铜供需预期趋紧支撑铜价" [2] - **Report Date**: 2025-12-05 - **Reporting Company**: Hongyuan Futures Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The expected tightening of the supply and demand of electrolytic copper in non-US regions, along with the increasing expectation of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines, may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Data Comparison - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On December 4, 2025, the closing price was 86,060, up 1,770 from the previous day; the trading volume was 225,331 lots, an increase of 99,349 lots; the open interest was 234,570 lots, an increase of 10,586 lots; the inventory was 32,139 tons, an increase of 3,170 tons; the Shanghai copper basis was 265, up 495 [3]. - **London Copper**: On December 4, 2025, the LME 3-month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 11,434, down 14.5; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was 50.44, down 37.94; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contract spread was 234.51, up 17 [3]. - **COMEX Copper**: On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the copper futures active contract was 5.362, up 0.12; the total inventory was 435,831 tons, an increase of 3,893 tons [3]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: There are production disturbances in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a continuous negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. Scrap copper supply has increased, and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in December has decreased compared to the previous month [3]. - **Demand Side**: The capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cables, copper enameled tapes, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods has decreased compared to last week, and that of recycled copper rods has remained flat. High copper prices have led to downstream rigid - demand procurement [3]. - **Inventory Side**: China's social inventory of electrolytic copper has decreased compared to last week, while the inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange and COMEX has increased [3]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Hold existing long positions cautiously. Pay attention to the support level of 83,000 - 85,000 and the resistance levels of 90,000 - 97,000/107,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level of 10,100 - 10,500 and the resistance level of 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper; and the support level of 4.8 - 5.0 and the resistance level of 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Fed's future interest - rate cut expectations are rising, there are production disturbances in multiple overseas copper mines, and the supply - demand outlook for electrolytic copper in non - US regions is tightening, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 86,060, with an increase of 1,770 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 225,331 lots, an increase of 99,349 lots. The open interest was 234,570 lots, an increase of 10,586 lots. The inventory was 32,139 tons, an increase of 3,170 tons [3]. - **London Copper**: On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 11,434, a decrease of 14.5 compared to the previous day. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 50.44, a decrease of 37.94 [3]. - **COMEX Copper**: On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.362, an increase of 0.12 compared to the previous day. The total inventory was 435,831, an increase of 3,893 [3]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: There are production disturbances in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight supply - demand outlook for domestic copper concentrates. Scrap copper supply has increased, domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in December has decreased month - on - month [3]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled tape, copper tube, and brass rod have increased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rod has decreased, and that of recycled copper rod has remained flat. High copper prices have led to downstream rigid - demand purchases [3]. - **Inventory**: China's social inventory of electrolytic copper has decreased compared to last week, while the LME's electrolytic copper inventory and COMEX copper inventory have increased [3]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Hold previous long positions cautiously. Pay attention to the support level around 83,000 - 85,000 and the pressure levels around 90,000 - 97,000/107,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 10,100 - 10,500 and the pressure level around 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper; the support level around 4.8 - 5.0 and the pressure level around 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [3].