Report Title - The report is titled "Shanghai Copper Daily Report 20251113: Tight Supply and Demand of Copper Mines May Support Copper Prices" [1] Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is cautiously bullish [2] Core View - On the supply side, there are disturbances in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index, indicating a tight supply - demand outlook for domestic copper concentrates. Although the supply of scrap copper has increased and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared to last week. In terms of inventory, China's electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased, while LME and COMEX copper inventories have increased. With the US federal government about to end its shutdown and production disturbances in overseas copper mines, the price of Shanghai copper may show a certain upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions in Shanghai copper cautiously, paying attention to support and resistance levels [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shanghai Copper Futures - **Price**: The closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract on November 12, 2025, was 86,840, up 210 from the previous day [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume was 76,287 lots on November 12, 2025, an increase of 1,648 lots from the previous day [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interest was 200,769 lots on November 12, 2025, a decrease of 1,602 lots from the previous day [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 44,088 tons on November 12, 2025, an increase of 1,124 tons from the previous day [2] - **Basis and Premium**: The Shanghai copper basis and various premiums showed different degrees of change. For example, the SMM 1 electrolytic copper - average price difference was - 45 on November 12, 2025, down 180 from the previous day [2] London Copper - **Price**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on November 12, 2025, was 10,897, up 57 from the previous day [2] - **Inventory**: The total registered and cancelled warehouse receipt inventory on November 11, 2025, was 136,250 tons [2] - **Contract Spread**: The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 0 on November 12, 2025, up 21.28 from the previous day [2] COMEX Copper - **Inventory**: The total COMEX copper inventory on November 12, 2025, was 378,303 tons, an increase of 5,999 tons from the previous relevant data [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the support and resistance levels. For Shanghai copper, focus on the 82,000 - 84,000 support and 88,000 - 90,000 resistance; for London copper, focus on the 10,300 - 10,500 support and 11,000 - 11,200 resistance; for US copper, focus on the 4.5 - 4.8 support and 5.2 - 5.5 resistance [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View The uncertainty of Sino-US tariff negotiations may put pressure on copper prices. Supply is expected to be tight due to disturbances in multiple copper mines at home and abroad, and the demand-side capacity utilization rate has increased. Considering the expected future interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction by the Fed, it is advisable to wait for the price to fall before mainly laying out long positions. The price is expected to be weak first and then strong [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On October 22, 2025, the closing price was 85,420, the trading volume was 112,173 lots, the open interest was 233,361 lots, and the inventory was 36,253 tons. The basis was -465, and the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 84,955 [2]. - **London Copper**: On October 22, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,658.5, and the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was -6.36 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On October 22, 2025, the closing price of the copper futures active contract was 5.005, and the total inventory was 346,499 [2]. 3.2. Supply - Demand - Inventory Situation - **Supply**: Multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have production disturbances, the import index of Chinese copper concentrates has been negative, and the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates have initially increased. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in October has increased month - on - month [2]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared to last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has increased compared to last week, the inventory of LME electrolytic copper has decreased compared to last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased compared to last week [2]. 3.3. Trading Strategy Wait for the price to fall and mainly lay out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 80,000 - 83,000 and the resistance level around 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,500 - 10,200 and the resistance level around 11,000 - 12,000 for London copper, the support level around 4.0 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The price of Shanghai copper may be weak first and then strong due to the uncertainty of whether China and the US will impose additional tariffs, the expectation of future interest rate cuts and the halt of balance - sheet reduction by the Federal Reserve, and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract - On October 15, 2025, the closing price was 85,800, up 1,390 from the previous day; the trading volume was 125,819 lots, down 85,165 from the previous day; the open interest was 175,899 lots, down 11,667 from the previous day; the inventory was 44,531 tons, up 8,236 from the previous day; the Shanghai copper basis was - 565, down 2,145 from the previous day [1] 2. Shanghai Copper Basis or Spot Premium and Discount - SMM 1 electrolytic copper - semi - average price on October 15, 2025 was 85,235, down 755 from the previous day; SMM flat - water copper opening premium and discount - average price was 70, up 50 from the previous day; SMM premium copper opening premium and discount - average price was 130, up 30 from the previous day; SMM wet - process copper opening premium and discount - average price was 0, up 45 from the previous day; SMM Guixi copper opening premium and discount - average price was 150, up 20 from the previous day; EQ copper opening premium and discount: average price was - 90, up 15 from the previous day; SMM RMB Yangshan copper premium - average price was 369.43, up 0.12 from the previous day; SMM Yangshan copper premium (warehouse receipt) - average price was 45, unchanged from the previous day; SMM Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) - average price was 52, unchanged from the previous day [1] 3. Spread (Near - month and Far - month) - On October 15, 2025, the spread between Shanghai copper near - month and Shanghai copper continuous - 1 was - 150, down 140 from the previous day; the spread between Shanghai copper continuous - 1 and Shanghai copper continuous - 2 was - 50, down 80 from the previous day; the spread between Shanghai copper continuous - 2 and Shanghai copper continuous - 1 was 60, down 30 from the previous day [1] 4. London Copper - On October 15, 2025, the closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,576, down 22.5 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 27.94, down 26.93 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 171.49, up 18.49 from the previous day; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.1127, up 0.15 from the previous day [1] 5. COMEX Copper - On October 15, 2025, the closing price of the copper futures active contract was 4.972, down 0.16 from the previous day; the total inventory was 343,235, up 2,360 from the previous day [1] 6. Key Information and Investment Strategy - **Supply Side**: Multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have production disruptions, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. The expected increase in scrap copper supply has led to a rise in domestic crude copper or anode plate processing fees. Copper smelters' maintenance capacity in October increased month - on - month [1] - **Demand Side**: The shipping enthusiasm of domestic electrolytic copper spot traders has weakened, resulting in low downstream purchasing sentiment [1] - **Inventory Side**: China's electrolytic copper social inventory increased compared with last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared with last week; COMEX copper inventory increased compared with last week [1] 7. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to mainly lay out long positions after the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 80,000 - 83,000 and the resistance level around 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, pay attention to the support level around 9,500 - 10,200 and the resistance level around 11,000 - 12,000. For US copper, pay attention to the support level around 4.0 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The expectation of tariff relief and tight supply of copper mines support copper prices. Fed rate - cuts, loose fiscal policies in multiple countries, production disruptions in overseas copper mines, and the easing signal after the US threat to impose tariffs on China may make the Shanghai copper price more likely to rise than fall [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Shanghai Copper Futures - **Price and Volume**: On October 13, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract was 85,120, down 790 from the previous day. The trading volume was 291,422 lots, an increase of 78,954 lots. The open interest was 201,831 lots, a decrease of 14,284 lots. The inventory was 32,890 tons, an increase of 2,926 tons [1]. - **Basis and Premium**: The Shanghai copper basis was - 75, down 845. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 85,045, down 1,635. Various copper premiums and discounts showed different changes [1]. - **Spread**: The spread between the near - month and the first continuous contract of Shanghai copper was - 120, down 110. The spread between the first and the second continuous contracts was 0, unchanged, and the spread between the second and the third continuous contracts was 40, an increase of 70 [1]. 3.2. London Copper - On October 13, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,802, an increase of 428. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 226.78, an increase of 257.97, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 209.5, an increase of 135.30. The Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.8800, down 0.40 [1]. 3.3. COMEX Copper - On October 13, 2025, the closing price of the active COMEX copper futures contract was 5.13, down 0.01, and the total inventory was 340,875 tons, an increase of 2,716 tons [1]. 3.4. Supply - Demand - Inventory - **Supply**: There are production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. The scrap copper supply is expected to be tight, and the processing fees for domestic blister copper or anode plates have begun to rise. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in October has increased month - on - month [1]. - **Demand**: Due to the sharp rise in copper prices, downstream buyers mainly make rigid - demand purchases [1]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has increased compared with last week. The LME electrolytic copper inventory has decreased, and the COMEX copper inventory has increased [1]. 3.5. Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to mainly lay out long positions when the price falls. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 80,000 and the resistance level around 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, pay attention to the support level around 9,500 - 10,200 and the resistance level around 11,000 - 12,000. For US copper, pay attention to the support level around 4.0 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Overseas copper mine production disruptions lead to a tight supply expectation, but the Fed's hawkish stance on future interest rate cuts may keep copper prices oscillating [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - On September 25, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 82,710, with a trading volume of 334,893 lots, a position of 238,523 lots, and an inventory of 27,662 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 82,505, with a change of -290 compared to the previous day [2] - The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on September 25, 2025, was 10,275.5, and the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was -31.55 [2] - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on September 25, 2025, was 4.7885, and the total inventory was 321,056 [2] Important Information - At the Antaike Copper Industry Week conference held in Xiongan, Beijing on September 25, 2025, Chen Quanxun, the former president of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association, put forward five suggestions for the copper industry, emphasizing that the anti - involution of the copper industry should refer to the experience of the aluminum industry and control smelting capacity [2] Long - Short Logic - Supply side: The large - scale wet ore spill at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia on September 8 may reduce the 2026 copper and gold production by about 35% compared to pre - accident estimates. Multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have production disruptions, leading to a negative and rising China copper concentrate import index, and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. Tight scrap copper supply - demand expectations lead to a decline in domestic crude copper or anode plate processing fees, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters from September to October increases month - on - month [2] - Demand side: High copper prices lead downstream to mainly make rigid purchases [2] - Inventory side: China's electrolytic copper social inventory decreased compared to last week, LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared to last week, and COMEX copper inventory increased compared to last week [2] Trading Strategy - Hold yesterday's long positions cautiously, or wait for the price to fall before laying out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 78,000 - 81,000 and the resistance level around 83,000 - 86,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,800 - 10,000 and the resistance level around 10,500 - 10,800 for London copper, and the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 for US copper [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives, effective August 1, which has led to a significant drop in copper prices on the COMEX, highlighting the unexpected nature of the policy and its impact on the market [3][9]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The 50% tariff applies to copper semi-finished products such as copper pipes, wires, rods, and sheets, as well as high-copper-content derivatives like fittings and electrical components, while excluding copper ore, concentrates, and cathodes [9][10]. - Following the announcement, COMEX copper futures prices fell by over 18% in a single day, marking the largest single-day drop in history [3][5]. - The market had anticipated a broader application of tariffs, leading to a miscalculation by major investment banks like Goldman Sachs, which had advised clients to buy call options on copper futures prior to the announcement [3][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The COMEX-LME (London Metal Exchange) copper premium rose from a neutral position to approximately 30% before the tariff announcement, driven by speculation about the tariffs [5][10]. - After the tariff announcement, the COMEX copper premium returned to a neutral position, indicating a significant market correction [5][10]. - Investors who had taken long positions in copper futures prior to the announcement faced substantial losses due to the rapid price decline [6][7]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The U.S. has a significant annual copper consumption of approximately 1.7 million tons, with a production shortfall of about 770,000 tons, necessitating imports primarily from Chile, Canada, and Mexico [9][10]. - The U.S. copper import policy aims to protect domestic production capabilities, as the country has limited smelting capacity, producing only about 3.3% of global refined copper [10][11]. - Analysts suggest that the copper market will need to adjust to the new tariff environment, with potential long-term implications for supply and demand dynamics, particularly as the market digests the impact of the tariffs [13][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the main factors influencing copper prices in the second half of the year will include copper concentrate shortages, rising raw material costs, and the potential for a U.S. interest rate cut [13][14]. - The copper market is expected to return to fundamental supply and demand considerations, with the recent tariff policy's negative impact largely absorbed by the market [14]. - There is a recommendation for investors to consider trading in less policy-affected markets like LME and SHFE (Shanghai Futures Exchange) copper futures, as the long-term upward trend in copper prices remains intact despite short-term volatility [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Trump government's tariff negotiations with China and others are uncertain, but due to the expected increase in domestic economic stimulus policies and the decreasing trend of domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, copper prices may be cautiously bullish. It is recommended that investors hold existing long positions or set stop - loss at high levels, and pay attention to support and resistance levels of copper prices in different markets [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - On April 29, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 77,600 yuan, with a volume of 79,140 lots and an open interest of 164,818 lots. The inventory was 34,042 tons, a decrease of 2,842 tons compared to the previous day. The Shanghai copper basis was 78,035 - 435, and the spot premium/discount in different regions showed various changes [2] - The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price on April 28 was 9,378, and the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 202,500 tons. The COMEX copper futures active contract closing price on April 29 was 4.8625, and the total inventory was 137,759 tons, an increase of 5,783 tons compared to the previous day [2] News and Events - On April 8, a "phosphorus - iron - lithium" coupling circular integrated project started in Kaiyang County, Guiyang. It aims to build a global - competitive new energy battery material R & D and production base [3] - In March, the import volume of recycled copper raw materials was 189,700 physical tons, a 28% decrease from the previous month and a 12.07% decrease from the same period last year. The import source is gradually shifting to Southeast Asia, and if relevant policies in Thailand and Malaysia change, the market will turn to Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia [3] Key Factors Macro - The US Senate and House of Representatives reached a budget resolution agreement on March 30, including tax cuts of $5.3 trillion in the next ten years, raising the debt ceiling, and the Trump government may reduce tariffs on China, increasing the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates [4] Upstream - Some mines and smelters have production changes. For example, Antamina mine in Peru is resuming production, while some smelters in Chile, the Philippines, and other places are facing production suspension or maintenance. The production and import of domestic electrolytic copper in May may change, with production possibly decreasing and imports possibly increasing [4] Downstream - The new orders of refined copper rod enterprises have decreased significantly, and the capacity utilization rate of some copper - related industries may decline, while the capacity utilization rate of some domestic copper product enterprises may increase due to economic stimulus policies and tariff expectations [4]