Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Overseas copper mine production disruptions lead to a tight supply expectation, but the Fed's hawkish stance on future interest rate cuts may keep copper prices oscillating [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - On September 25, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 82,710, with a trading volume of 334,893 lots, a position of 238,523 lots, and an inventory of 27,662 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 82,505, with a change of -290 compared to the previous day [2] - The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on September 25, 2025, was 10,275.5, and the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was -31.55 [2] - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on September 25, 2025, was 4.7885, and the total inventory was 321,056 [2] Important Information - At the Antaike Copper Industry Week conference held in Xiongan, Beijing on September 25, 2025, Chen Quanxun, the former president of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association, put forward five suggestions for the copper industry, emphasizing that the anti - involution of the copper industry should refer to the experience of the aluminum industry and control smelting capacity [2] Long - Short Logic - Supply side: The large - scale wet ore spill at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia on September 8 may reduce the 2026 copper and gold production by about 35% compared to pre - accident estimates. Multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have production disruptions, leading to a negative and rising China copper concentrate import index, and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. Tight scrap copper supply - demand expectations lead to a decline in domestic crude copper or anode plate processing fees, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters from September to October increases month - on - month [2] - Demand side: High copper prices lead downstream to mainly make rigid purchases [2] - Inventory side: China's electrolytic copper social inventory decreased compared to last week, LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared to last week, and COMEX copper inventory increased compared to last week [2] Trading Strategy - Hold yesterday's long positions cautiously, or wait for the price to fall before laying out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 78,000 - 81,000 and the resistance level around 83,000 - 86,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,800 - 10,000 and the resistance level around 10,500 - 10,800 for London copper, and the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 for US copper [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives, effective August 1, which has led to a significant drop in copper prices on the COMEX, highlighting the unexpected nature of the policy and its impact on the market [3][9]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The 50% tariff applies to copper semi-finished products such as copper pipes, wires, rods, and sheets, as well as high-copper-content derivatives like fittings and electrical components, while excluding copper ore, concentrates, and cathodes [9][10]. - Following the announcement, COMEX copper futures prices fell by over 18% in a single day, marking the largest single-day drop in history [3][5]. - The market had anticipated a broader application of tariffs, leading to a miscalculation by major investment banks like Goldman Sachs, which had advised clients to buy call options on copper futures prior to the announcement [3][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The COMEX-LME (London Metal Exchange) copper premium rose from a neutral position to approximately 30% before the tariff announcement, driven by speculation about the tariffs [5][10]. - After the tariff announcement, the COMEX copper premium returned to a neutral position, indicating a significant market correction [5][10]. - Investors who had taken long positions in copper futures prior to the announcement faced substantial losses due to the rapid price decline [6][7]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The U.S. has a significant annual copper consumption of approximately 1.7 million tons, with a production shortfall of about 770,000 tons, necessitating imports primarily from Chile, Canada, and Mexico [9][10]. - The U.S. copper import policy aims to protect domestic production capabilities, as the country has limited smelting capacity, producing only about 3.3% of global refined copper [10][11]. - Analysts suggest that the copper market will need to adjust to the new tariff environment, with potential long-term implications for supply and demand dynamics, particularly as the market digests the impact of the tariffs [13][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the main factors influencing copper prices in the second half of the year will include copper concentrate shortages, rising raw material costs, and the potential for a U.S. interest rate cut [13][14]. - The copper market is expected to return to fundamental supply and demand considerations, with the recent tariff policy's negative impact largely absorbed by the market [14]. - There is a recommendation for investors to consider trading in less policy-affected markets like LME and SHFE (Shanghai Futures Exchange) copper futures, as the long-term upward trend in copper prices remains intact despite short-term volatility [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Trump government's tariff negotiations with China and others are uncertain, but due to the expected increase in domestic economic stimulus policies and the decreasing trend of domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, copper prices may be cautiously bullish. It is recommended that investors hold existing long positions or set stop - loss at high levels, and pay attention to support and resistance levels of copper prices in different markets [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - On April 29, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 77,600 yuan, with a volume of 79,140 lots and an open interest of 164,818 lots. The inventory was 34,042 tons, a decrease of 2,842 tons compared to the previous day. The Shanghai copper basis was 78,035 - 435, and the spot premium/discount in different regions showed various changes [2] - The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price on April 28 was 9,378, and the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 202,500 tons. The COMEX copper futures active contract closing price on April 29 was 4.8625, and the total inventory was 137,759 tons, an increase of 5,783 tons compared to the previous day [2] News and Events - On April 8, a "phosphorus - iron - lithium" coupling circular integrated project started in Kaiyang County, Guiyang. It aims to build a global - competitive new energy battery material R & D and production base [3] - In March, the import volume of recycled copper raw materials was 189,700 physical tons, a 28% decrease from the previous month and a 12.07% decrease from the same period last year. The import source is gradually shifting to Southeast Asia, and if relevant policies in Thailand and Malaysia change, the market will turn to Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia [3] Key Factors Macro - The US Senate and House of Representatives reached a budget resolution agreement on March 30, including tax cuts of $5.3 trillion in the next ten years, raising the debt ceiling, and the Trump government may reduce tariffs on China, increasing the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates [4] Upstream - Some mines and smelters have production changes. For example, Antamina mine in Peru is resuming production, while some smelters in Chile, the Philippines, and other places are facing production suspension or maintenance. The production and import of domestic electrolytic copper in May may change, with production possibly decreasing and imports possibly increasing [4] Downstream - The new orders of refined copper rod enterprises have decreased significantly, and the capacity utilization rate of some copper - related industries may decline, while the capacity utilization rate of some domestic copper product enterprises may increase due to economic stimulus policies and tariff expectations [4]