伦敦铜期货

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纽铜“惊魂一跌”!特朗普关税引发巨震,高位做多者损失惨重,铜市逻辑生变?
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-08-05 00:36
华夏时报记者叶青北京报道 7月30日,特朗普签署行政令,宣布自8月1日起对进口的铜半成品及铜含量高的衍生品统一征收50%的关税,而铜矿石、精矿及废料仍保持开放。这一政 策细节与市场预期的对所有进口铜征收50%关税大相径庭。纽约商品交易所(COMEX)铜期货价格在政策公布后,当日收盘暴跌逾18%,创下史上最大单日 跌幅。 值得关注的是,在纽约铜价暴跌的前一天,华尔街投行高盛的销售人员还在与客户的电话会议中表示,特朗普极有可能实施50%的铜关税,建议客户买入 纽铜的短期看涨期权。此后,高盛向客户发送一封题为"未收铜关税,我们错了"的邮件认错。全球顶级投行在铜价预测上的失误,凸显了特朗普的关税政 策几乎让整个铜市措手不及。 纽约铜溢价回归平水 特朗普曾于2025年2月25日下令对美国铜进口展开调查,以重建国内铜生产。这一消息也直接导致COMEX—LME(伦敦商品交易所)铜溢价开始走高,从平 水结构上涨至15%左右的溢价。 "7月8日特朗普在白宫召开内阁会议时接受媒体采访,提到将对进口铜产品征收50%的关税,消息一经发布,COMEX—LME溢价再度上扬,从15%涨至 30%左右的溢价。从实物精铜国际贸易套利的角度,赶 ...
宏源期货沪铜日评-20250501
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-05-01 02:05
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Trump government's tariff negotiations with China and others are uncertain, but due to the expected increase in domestic economic stimulus policies and the decreasing trend of domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, copper prices may be cautiously bullish. It is recommended that investors hold existing long positions or set stop - loss at high levels, and pay attention to support and resistance levels of copper prices in different markets [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - On April 29, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 77,600 yuan, with a volume of 79,140 lots and an open interest of 164,818 lots. The inventory was 34,042 tons, a decrease of 2,842 tons compared to the previous day. The Shanghai copper basis was 78,035 - 435, and the spot premium/discount in different regions showed various changes [2] - The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price on April 28 was 9,378, and the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 202,500 tons. The COMEX copper futures active contract closing price on April 29 was 4.8625, and the total inventory was 137,759 tons, an increase of 5,783 tons compared to the previous day [2] News and Events - On April 8, a "phosphorus - iron - lithium" coupling circular integrated project started in Kaiyang County, Guiyang. It aims to build a global - competitive new energy battery material R & D and production base [3] - In March, the import volume of recycled copper raw materials was 189,700 physical tons, a 28% decrease from the previous month and a 12.07% decrease from the same period last year. The import source is gradually shifting to Southeast Asia, and if relevant policies in Thailand and Malaysia change, the market will turn to Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia [3] Key Factors Macro - The US Senate and House of Representatives reached a budget resolution agreement on March 30, including tax cuts of $5.3 trillion in the next ten years, raising the debt ceiling, and the Trump government may reduce tariffs on China, increasing the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates [4] Upstream - Some mines and smelters have production changes. For example, Antamina mine in Peru is resuming production, while some smelters in Chile, the Philippines, and other places are facing production suspension or maintenance. The production and import of domestic electrolytic copper in May may change, with production possibly decreasing and imports possibly increasing [4] Downstream - The new orders of refined copper rod enterprises have decreased significantly, and the capacity utilization rate of some copper - related industries may decline, while the capacity utilization rate of some domestic copper product enterprises may increase due to economic stimulus policies and tariff expectations [4]