白卡纸价格自2025年8月底阶段性低点以来呈现持续上行态势 截至2026年1月30日，白卡纸价格为4269元/吨，较2025年8月底累计上涨339元/吨，增长了8.63%。据卓 创数据显示，2025年8–9月白卡纸价格处于低位，行业盈利承压明显；进入四季度后，在头部纸企多轮 涨价函带动下，价格逐步企稳并回升。2025年末至2026年1月，白卡纸价格在多轮提价后维持高位。 智通财经APP获悉，华安证券发布研报称，截至2026年1月30日，白卡纸价格为4269元/吨，较2025年8 月底累计上涨339元/吨，增长了8.63%。据卓创数据显示，2025年8–9月白卡纸价格处于低位，行业盈利 承压明显；进入四季度后，在头部纸企多轮涨价函带动下，价格逐步企稳并回升。春节前后纸企检修及 主动控产使供给端减量，行业库存水平处于相对低位。同时，在经历长期低价周期，纸企整体盈利水平 仍处偏低状态，头部企业拥有更强议价能力，通过持续提价可以进一步改善毛利水平。 华安证券主要观点如下： 本轮白卡纸价格上涨由多种因素共同影响：成本端压力上行、供需格局改善以及行业提价等 后续来看，白卡纸价格仍具备上涨动力 一方面，木浆等主要原材料价格 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [1] Core Views - The price of white cardboard has been on a continuous upward trend since the low point at the end of August 2025, reaching 4269 CNY/ton by January 30, 2026, an increase of 339 CNY/ton or 8.63% [3][21] - The recovery in industry profits is attributed to multiple factors including rising raw material costs, improved supply-demand dynamics, and price increases initiated by leading companies [4][28] Summary by Sections Weekly Special Report - White cardboard prices have shown a steady increase since the low in August 2025, with significant price recovery driven by cost pressures, supply-demand balance, and coordinated price hikes from major paper companies [3][21][28] - The inventory of white cardboard has decreased, leading to a more balanced market, which has helped stabilize prices [4][28] Weekly Market Review - From January 27 to January 31, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.35%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.77%. The textile and apparel sector saw a slight increase of 0.01% [30][31] - The top gainers in the light industry sector included Yueyang Forest Paper (+18.35%) and Xidamen (+12.7%), while the biggest losers included Meike Home (-12.88%) and Kangxin New Materials (-11.74%) [32][33] Key Data Tracking Home Furnishing - From January 18 to January 25, 2026, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 121.1 million square meters, a decrease of 6.37% month-on-month [36] - In 2025, the total area of newly started residential construction was 430 million square meters, down 19.8% year-on-year [36] Packaging and Paper - As of January 30, 2026, the prices of various paper products were as follows: white cardboard at 4269 CNY/ton, with no change week-on-week [51] - The gross profit for white cardboard was -339.97 CNY/ton, an improvement from -555.13 CNY/ton at the end of August 2025 [21][28] Textile and Apparel - As of January 30, 2026, the price index for cotton in China was 16183 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.97% [11] - In December 2025, retail sales of clothing and textiles amounted to 166.1 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.6% [11] Investment Recommendations - For the home furnishing sector, the report suggests focusing on stable companies and high-growth smart home segments due to favorable policies [14] - In the paper industry, it is recommended to pay attention to companies with diversified products and integrated operations, such as Sun Paper [14]

Core Viewpoint - Since the end of August, the price of white cardboard has been continuously increasing, leading to an improvement in industry profitability despite raw material costs showing a temporary decline followed by an increase [1][6]. Price Trends - White cardboard prices have been raised monthly, starting with a notification of a 100 yuan/ton increase in September, accumulating a total of 600 yuan/ton increase over four rounds by December [2][3]. - As of December 11, the average market price for white cardboard in China reached 4244 yuan/ton, reflecting a 7.99% increase since the end of August [2]. Raw Material Costs - The price trends for raw wood pulp have diverged, with broadleaf pulp prices increasing due to external and domestic factors, while needle pulp prices have fluctuated based on supply and demand dynamics [4]. - By December 11, the cost of white cardboard had increased by 2.51% since the end of August, which is lower than the price increase of white cardboard [4]. Profitability Analysis - Despite the increase in white cardboard prices, the gross profit margin remains negative at -6.31% as of December 11, although it has improved by 5.68 percentage points since the end of August [6]. - The industry is experiencing a shift towards domestic raw material substitution, with companies increasingly using domestic chemical pulp and broadleaf pulp, leading to a slight profitability in the sector [8]. Market Conditions - The current price of white cardboard is at a five-year low, and market profitability is below the five-year average, prompting manufacturers to continue raising prices to improve the operational environment [8]. - Companies with self-produced pulp have a competitive advantage in the context of overall excess capacity and intense price competition in the market [8].