Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao [1][3]. Core Views - The company is actively embracing new consumption trends in the industry, with a focus on product innovation and channel transformation [1][6]. - The management has a clear understanding of the industry landscape and is strategically planning to adapt to changes, particularly in consumer preferences towards lower-alcohol products [1][6]. - The company aims to improve inventory control and maintain pricing stability for its Guojiao series products, leveraging digital marketing for channel expansion [1][6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected EPS for 2025-2027 is 9.47, 10.00, and 10.83, respectively, with a corresponding PE of 12X for 2025 [1][3]. - Total revenue is expected to grow from 30,233 million in 2023 to 35,708 million in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [2][12]. - The company’s net profit is projected to increase from 13,246 million in 2023 to 15,935 million in 2027, indicating a steady growth trajectory [7][12]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on penetrating lower-tier markets, aiming to reach four million terminals in the next five years [1][6]. - Digital marketing initiatives are being implemented to enhance direct channel capabilities and meet emerging consumer demands [1][6]. - The company is committed to developing low-alcohol products, with successful innovations like the 28-degree Guojiao 1573 and ongoing research for other low-alcohol variants [1][6]. Financial Ratios - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 26.9% for the trailing twelve months, indicating strong profitability [3][13]. - The asset-liability ratio is expected to decrease from 34.4% in 2023 to 22.6% in 2027, reflecting improved financial stability [13]. - The company maintains a high gross margin of approximately 87.4% to 88.3% over the forecast period, showcasing its pricing power [13].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is entering a new adjustment cycle, with changing consumer trends and a focus on quality over quantity, as highlighted by the performance of major companies like Luzhou Laojiao [4][5]. Group 1: Company Strategy and Goals - Luzhou Laojiao plans to expand its market presence significantly, aiming to reach 1 million terminals in the next five years, up from the current 50,000 [2][10]. - The company has successfully developed a 28-degree version of its flagship product, Guojiao 1573, which will be launched in the market at an appropriate time [2][7]. - Luzhou Laojiao emphasizes the importance of brand building and consumer experience, particularly in the context of e-commerce and instant retail [9][10]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Performance - The white liquor industry has seen a 1.8% year-on-year decline in production among large-scale enterprises, while sales revenue increased by 5.3% to 796.4 billion yuan, and total profit rose by 7.76% to 250.9 billion yuan in 2024 [4]. - Consumer preferences are shifting towards quality and personalized experiences, with younger demographics favoring lower-alcohol and diverse products [5][6]. - The market is witnessing a decline in government consumption, while personal consumption scenarios like weddings and self-drinking are growing steadily [5][6]. Group 3: Market Confidence and Adaptation - Luzhou Laojiao's chairman, Liu Miao, expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate the current industry adjustments, citing improved market inventory and stable pricing as key factors [7][8]. - The company is focusing on product innovation, with successful sales of its 38-degree Guojiao 1573 and plans for further development of lower-alcohol products [7][8]. - Luzhou Laojiao is enhancing its digital marketing strategies, leading to a more efficient allocation of sales expenses and a stronger online-offline integration [7][8].