本文字数：1750，阅读时长大约3分钟 2025.08. 27 记者注意到，近期白酒降度已成为一种风潮。近一个月来，已有4家企业宣布推出低度白酒新品，且 酒精度一个比一个低。除了五粮液和舍得酒业外，今年7月，泸州老窖宣布28度国窖1573已研发成 功，将适时推出；8月19日，古井贡酒也推出了26度的"年份原浆·古20"，并请来演员陈建斌造势。 洋河则在今年春季糖酒会期间推出了多款33.8度的微分子白酒新品。根据其此前公布的计划，今年9 月还将有多款低度新品上市。 这一系列低度白酒新品都有一个共性，除了降低酒精度之外，上述新品区别于传统的白酒，均采用更 时尚的外包装，主要线上渠道销售，并邀请明星代言以吸引消费者。记者在多个电商平台看到，五粮 液29度新品上市一天的预订量均超过1000份。 在过去很长一段时间，白酒产品主要集中于高酒精度，这与白酒生产的特点有关，也与国内白酒消费 习惯的变化有关。受经济和物资匮乏时期的影响，高度白酒酒精含量高，醉感也更强；中国酒桌文化 复杂，高度白酒背后还隐含着权力与服从等文化符号。 特别是前者，低度白酒在技术上存在浑浊、口感寡淡和水解"三道坎"，对生产工艺要求更高、成本其 实也更 ...

在中国白酒行业加速转型的浪潮中，38度国窖1573以惊人的市场表现书写了行业传奇。数据显示， 这款被河北消费者亲切称为"小甜水"、在天津市场被戏称"怂人乐"的高端低度白酒，有望成为行业首 个迈入"百亿俱乐部"的低度大单品，成功奠定了"低度白酒天花板"的行业地位。 市场表现印证了这款产品的成功：在河北市场，它独占泸州老窖8 0%份额，年销4 0亿元； 在山东、江苏、浙北等市场，每1 0瓶国窖1 5 7 3中就有8瓶是3 8度国窖1 5 7 3。这一现象级产 品的崛起，源于泸州老窖对消费趋势的精准把握和技术创新的持续投入。 技术层面，依托传承7 0 1年的活态酿酒技艺和持续使用4 4 2年的1 5 7 3国宝窖池群，泸州老窖 早 已 攻 克 了 低 度 酒 " 浑 浊 、 寡 淡 、 水 解 " 三 大 技 术 难 题 ， 独 创 吸 附 过 滤 工 艺 ， 实 现 " 低 而 不 淡"的品质突破。市场层面，随着健康饮酒理念普及和年轻消费群体崛起，3 8度国窖1 5 7 3 凭借"醉得慢、醒酒快、入口柔、尾回甘"的特点，成为市场上极受欢迎的低度白酒产品。 眼 下 ， 泸 州 老 窖 已 成 功 研 发 国 窖 1 ...

Industry Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is currently in a deep adjustment phase, influenced by economic and policy pressures, with five major changes observed [2] - The industry is transitioning towards a "quality-price ratio" competition phase, with leading companies already positioning themselves for this shift [2] - Despite being in a weak performance phase, the sector shows characteristics of low valuation, low expectations, low holdings, and high dividends, making leading liquor companies attractive investment opportunities [3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Background - The liquor industry is facing dual pressures from economic conditions and policy changes, accelerating its decline [7] - The introduction of the "Strict Economy and Anti-Waste Regulations" has further impacted consumption scenarios, particularly in high-end group purchases [7][9] - The industry is expected to undergo a supply-side adjustment, with companies lowering their growth targets to alleviate channel pressures [13] 2. Supply Side - Leading liquor companies have initiated a "control supply" trend to rebalance supply and demand, which may stabilize prices [18] - Companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao have implemented supply control policies to manage inventory levels [19] 3. Demand Side - Companies are innovating to meet changing consumer preferences, focusing on quality-price ratio products and low-alcohol options to attract younger consumers [20] - The establishment of manufacturer platforms and embracing online channels are strategies being adopted to enhance sales and manage distribution [26] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strong brands with resilient demand and attractive dividend returns, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [55] - The potential for earnings per share (EPS) recovery is anticipated in the second quarter of 2026, making it a favorable time to invest [55]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a significant transformation driven by changing consumer preferences, with product innovation being just the starting point for future competition [1][8]. Group 1: Product Innovation Trends - The industry is witnessing a resurgence in low-alcohol, small-packaged, and light-bottle products, which have become hot topics among major liquor companies [1][2]. - Major companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao are launching low-alcohol products, with Luzhou Laojiao announcing the development of a 28-degree version of its flagship product [3][5]. - The rise of the Z generation is influencing the market, leading to increased demand for small-capacity liquor products, with companies like Yanghe and Shui Jing Fang introducing new small-packaged offerings [5][12]. Group 2: Consumer-Centric Changes - The shift towards a consumer-driven market is evident, with companies needing to adapt to the evolving consumer landscape to maintain sales and growth [7][9]. - The traditional business banquet and gift market for liquor is declining, while new consumption scenarios like family gatherings and personal enjoyment are emerging as growth areas [12][13]. - The industry is experiencing a significant drop in sales for business banquets, with a reported decline of 60%-80% in volume for this segment [12]. Group 3: Channel and Market Dynamics - The liquor distribution landscape is undergoing a transformation, moving from a "channel-driven" model to one focused on "user sovereignty," leading to challenges for traditional distribution channels [10][12]. - New sales channels, including direct purchases from supermarkets and e-commerce platforms, are becoming increasingly important as traditional distribution methods struggle [10][12]. - Companies are exploring innovative consumption scenarios and product expressions to better meet diverse consumer needs, as seen with Wuliangye's targeted product for the "golden list" celebration [12][13]. Group 4: Quality Expression and Branding - The industry faces challenges in effectively communicating the quality and value of its products to consumers, necessitating improvements in the quality expression system [13][15]. - The internationalization and youth-oriented strategies of liquor brands are critical, with companies actively seeking to engage younger consumers through low-alcohol products [15].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is facing challenges such as shrinking competition, declining prices, and increasing inventory pressure, prompting leading liquor companies to enter the low-alcohol liquor market to seek growth opportunities [2][6]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Major liquor companies like Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Jiugui Liquor are actively discussing the trend towards low-alcohol products during their annual shareholder meetings [2][3]. - The low-alcohol liquor segment is expected to become a new growth area for leading liquor companies, as they adapt to the younger consumer demographic and the trend of lower alcohol content [2][3][6]. Group 2: Company Strategies - Wuliangye plans to reintroduce a 29-degree liquor product after 20 years, with market research already underway for three different flavors, expected to launch in September [3][5]. - Luzhou Laojiao has successfully developed a 28-degree product and is testing even lower alcohol content options [3][5]. - Other companies like Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Yanghe are also increasing their focus on low-alcohol products, with various new offerings in development [3][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The low-alcohol segment is seen as a potential second growth curve for some liquor companies, with Luzhou Laojiao reporting that the proportion of low-alcohol products in their portfolio has increased from 15% to around 50% [6][8]. - The overall revenue growth for liquor companies has been declining, with only two out of twenty companies achieving double-digit revenue growth in the first quarter of 2025 [6][7]. Group 4: Historical Context - The low-alcohol trend in the Chinese liquor market has historical precedents, with previous waves of low-alcohol product launches occurring in the 1970s and 1980s, but the market has predominantly favored high-alcohol products [8][9][10]. - The introduction of low-alcohol products has often faced challenges, as seen in past attempts where many low-alcohol offerings did not meet market expectations and were eventually discontinued [9][11]. Group 5: Consumer Preferences - A survey indicated that among young consumers aged 25 to 35, only 19% prefer traditional liquor, while 52% favor beer, highlighting the need for liquor companies to adapt to changing consumer preferences [3][6]. - The pricing strategy for low-alcohol products is critical, as companies must balance affordability for younger consumers with maintaining a premium brand image [13][15].

Group 1: Market Performance - The food and beverage sector saw a strong opening on July 17, with the Food ETF (515710) rising by up to 0.66% during the session [1] - Key stocks in the sector, including Dongpeng Beverage and Yili, experienced significant gains, with Dongpeng rising over 3% and several others increasing by more than 1% [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - Multiple liquor companies are actively launching low-alcohol products in response to the challenge of attracting younger consumers [2] - Wuliangye plans to reintroduce a 29-degree liquor product after 20 years, targeting a price point of 500 yuan [2] - Luzhou Laojiao announced the successful development of a 28-degree product, while Yanghe launched a 33.8-degree product earlier this year [2] - Industry experts suggest these moves are a collective response to the loss of young consumer demographics [2] Group 3: Valuation Insights - The current valuation of the food and beverage sector is seen as an attractive investment opportunity, with the Food ETF's underlying index PE ratio at 19.91, marking a low point historically [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Dongxing Securities anticipates an improvement in the food and beverage sector's overall performance as economic stimulus policies take effect [4] - Open-source Securities highlights potential benefits for the sector from domestic demand policies, suggesting a focus on leading companies in the liquor segment [4] - The Food ETF (515710) is recommended for investors looking to gain exposure to core assets in the food and beverage sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The low-alcohol liquor market is experiencing a resurgence after nearly 30 years of dormancy, with major companies like Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanghe actively entering this segment to attract younger consumers [3][4][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - The market share of low-alcohol liquor has been rapidly increasing, with its production accounting for approximately 15% in 2022 and projected to exceed 25% by 2024 [3]. - Some companies report that low-alcohol products have captured over 50% of their regional market share, indicating a significant shift in consumer preferences towards younger demographics [3][4]. - The demand for low-alcohol liquor is driven by changing consumer habits, with lower alcohol content products showing better sales performance compared to traditional high-alcohol options [4][19]. Group 2: Company Strategies - Wuliangye plans to launch a new mid-to-high-end 29-degree product named "Yijian Qingxin" in September, while Yanghe will introduce fruit wines and low-alcohol trendy drinks in August and September [6][9]. - Luzhou Laojiao has successfully developed a 28-degree version of its flagship product, Guojiao 1573, and will introduce additional low-alcohol options [6][8]. - Guizhou Moutai is accelerating its low-alcohol beverage brand, Youmi, with 14 new products launched at a recent trade fair and plans for online and offline distribution [13]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The low-alcohol liquor segment faces challenges such as maintaining flavor balance and quality control, as reducing alcohol content can disrupt the equilibrium of flavor compounds [16]. - There is a risk of market homogenization, with many brands adopting similar "fruit flavor + bubbles" formulas, which may lead to consumer fatigue and a lack of brand loyalty [16][19]. - The industry must focus on technological innovation and cultural engagement to ensure sustainable growth and avoid being trapped in a highly competitive market [19].

Core Viewpoint - The low-alcohol liquor market in China has seen a resurgence after nearly 30 years of dormancy, with major companies like Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and others actively entering this segment to attract younger consumers [1][2][4]. Industry Trends - The market share of low-alcohol liquor has been rapidly increasing, with its production accounting for approximately 15% in 2022 and projected to exceed 25% by 2024 [1][2]. - Companies are launching new products with lower alcohol content to cater to changing consumer preferences, such as Wuliangye's 29-degree "Yi Jian Qing Xin" and Luzhou Laojiao's 28-degree Guojiao 1573 [4][10]. Consumer Preferences - There is a growing preference among consumers for low-alcohol liquor, which is perceived to have better sales performance compared to high-alcohol liquor, especially in daily consumption scenarios [2][11]. - The trend towards low-alcohol products is seen as a response to the demand for healthier drinking options and a younger demographic [6][16]. Product Innovation - Companies are focusing on product innovation to meet the demand for low-alcohol and flavored beverages, with strategies including the introduction of fruit-flavored and sparkling options [1][10]. - The industry is facing challenges in maintaining the quality and taste of low-alcohol products, as the reduction in alcohol content can affect the balance of flavors [13][16]. Market Dynamics - The low-alcohol liquor market is experiencing significant growth in regions like Guangdong and Jiangsu, while other areas such as Shandong and Henan require further development [16]. - The competition in the low-alcohol segment is intensifying, with many brands adopting similar flavor profiles, leading to concerns about market saturation and differentiation [13][16].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is navigating a complex market environment in the first half of 2025, with three significant trends emerging: low-alcohol products, consumer-centric strategies, and internationalization [1][3][5]. Group 1: Low-Alcohol Trend - The low-alcohol trend is becoming a new highlight in the industry, with leading companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao launching low-alcohol products such as Wuliangye's "29-degree Wuliangye" and Luzhou Laojiao's "28-degree Guojiao 1573" [1]. - The low-alcohol market is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate of around 30%, and is expected to exceed 74 billion yuan by 2025 [1]. - This trend allows companies to explore new avenues in a saturated high-alcohol market and effectively reach younger consumers, although it requires higher standards in brewing technology and careful strategic planning [1]. Group 2: Consumer-Centric Strategies - Companies are accelerating their focus on consumer markets through initiatives like Luzhou Laojiao's "Jiao Zhu Festival" and interactive tasting events, which aim to enhance user value and build emotional connections with consumers [3]. - The consumer-centric approach helps to overcome growth bottlenecks and reshape development dynamics while fostering a new generation of consumers [3]. - However, this strategy requires long-term investment and careful management to avoid ineffective competition [3]. Group 3: Internationalization - The industry is making strides in internationalization, with major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showcasing Chinese liquor at the 2025 Osaka World Expo, attracting international attention [5]. - Wuliangye is actively participating in various activities as a senior partner of the China Pavilion, while Moutai is launching a series of new products that explore cultural integration and localization [5]. - In 2024, the export volume of Chinese liquor increased by 6.3%, with total export value rising by 20.4%, and a significant 30% increase in export value in the first quarter of this year [5]. - Despite these gains, the global market share of Chinese liquor remains small, facing challenges such as tariff barriers and cultural differences [5][10]. Group 4: Standardization Efforts - The national liquor standardization technical committee has made significant progress by releasing a draft national standard for liquor quality, aimed at establishing standardized language for international markets [7]. - The introduction of the "liquor flavor wheel" replaces traditional terminology with familiar taste vocabulary for international consumers, facilitating the internationalization of Chinese liquor [8]. - These initiatives are designed to bridge cognitive gaps and provide strong support for the global expansion of Chinese liquor [8][10].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a significant value reconstruction, moving away from the "easy profit" era as companies face declining sales and profits [1][2][8] - Market participants are compelled to rethink their survival strategies, shifting from reliance on inventory accumulation to focusing on consumer demand [1][6] Performance Decline - Major liquor companies reported substantial profit declines for the first half of 2025, with Shunxin Agriculture's net profit expected to drop by 53.85%-63.32% to between 155 million and 195 million yuan, down from 423 million yuan [2] - Jiu Gui Jiu's net profit is projected to fall by 90.08%-93.39% to between 8 million and 12 million yuan, with revenue expected to decrease by approximately 43% [2] - Jinzhongzi Wine anticipates a loss of 60 million to 90 million yuan, citing ongoing industry adjustments and declining production [2] Market Challenges - The industry is facing increased inventory pressure and a cautious market outlook, with high-end liquor prices continuing to decline and consumption shifting towards home drinking and lower-priced options [3][4] - The restaurant sector, a key consumption channel for liquor, has seen a significant slowdown, with revenue growth dropping to 0.9%, impacting overall liquor sales [4] Cash Flow Pressures - Over 81.3% of liquor distributors prioritize maintaining cash flow over profit, reflecting the urgent need to manage inventory and liquidity [5] - Distributors are resorting to selling products at lower prices to move inventory, as retail markets struggle to absorb excess stock [5] Transformation Imperative - The deep industry adjustments and weak seasonal performance are driving liquor companies to accelerate their transformation efforts, with a focus on consumer-centric strategies [6][8] - Leading companies like Moutai are shifting from a product-centric to a consumer-centric approach, emphasizing the need for innovation and service integration [6][7] Innovation and Market Adaptation - Luzhou Laojiao is focusing on product innovation to meet evolving consumer demands, successfully launching lower-alcohol products and expanding into new beverage categories [7] - Regional companies are also adapting by exploring new sales channels and product development to navigate market pressures [7][8] Overall Industry Trends - The liquor industry's transformation paths vary, but all aim to abandon the "easy profit" mindset and focus on sustainable growth through consumer engagement and market adaptation [8]