Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The silver has reached a phased peak, with increasing pressure on bulls to drive up prices, and the conditions for further upward breakthrough are becoming more demanding. Thus, the silver trend - long strategy is worth exiting [1]. - The current decline and adjustment of silver do not represent the end of the long - term trend. However, the current point has a poor risk - reward ratio, and the adjustment is not over. It still requires the spot market to ferment again to drive up the futures price [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Silver Price Analysis - Several recent changes in silver indicate a short - term price pressure: domestic spot premium has eased, overseas silver lease rate has dropped from over 8% to 4.46% for 1M and the term structure has changed from back to contango; the domestic - overseas price difference has converged; the exchange has tightened risk control on silver, curbing bullish sentiment. Also, the BCOM weight adjustment on January 8 and the US Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariffs may affect the silver market [1]. Investment Strategy - For on - exchange options, as the implied volatility of silver options is falling in line with the price, one can consider selling out - of - the - money call options to earn volatility premium. To hedge against the risk of further price increases, one can buy a small amount of in - the - money call options [3]. - For off - exchange options, customers planning to bet on short - term pullbacks are advised to layout short - term, medium - range knock - out fixed - payout put options to profit from market fluctuations and can also build short positions at high prices [4].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced significant volatility, with silver prices rising approximately 140% in 2025, outperforming gold's 60% increase, leading to a surge in demand for physical silver in markets like Shenzhen's Shui Bei [6][19]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - During the New Year holiday, Shenzhen's Shui Bei market remained active, with some merchants stacking silver bars on top of gold bars due to space constraints, indicating a rush to replenish silver inventory [1][2][3]. - Silver prices have started to decline after reaching a peak on December 29, 2025, with COMEX gold dropping 4.63% and COMEX silver falling 6.39% from December 29 to January 4, 2026 [4][17]. - The demand for physical silver led to a shift from on-site trading to off-site purchases, with investors flocking to Shui Bei to buy silver bars and ingots, resulting in some items being pre-ordered [8][9]. Group 2: Supply and Demand - The supply of physical silver has shown signs of improvement post-New Year, with multiple merchants reporting available stock without the need for pre-orders, suggesting a return to a more rational market [9][17]. - The price of silver on January 4 was reported at 21 yuan, down from a high of 23.2 yuan the previous week, with investment-grade silver bars averaging around 19.5 yuan [9][12]. - The market for silver has been characterized by high volatility, with a significant increase in physical delivery demand pushing prices higher, but recent adjustments have led to a more stable supply situation [15][19]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Investors in silver primarily utilize three channels: public funds (which have imposed purchase limits), futures trading, and physical silver, with the latter having higher storage costs compared to gold [19]. - The silver market is less liquid than gold, with a larger price spread between buying and selling prices, indicating potential challenges for investors [19]. - Analysts suggest that the recent surge in silver prices is driven by a combination of financial re-evaluation, tight physical supply, market sentiment, and macroeconomic factors, with regional inventory shifts playing a crucial role [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The international silver prices experienced a significant drop after five consecutive days of increase, with a decline of over 6% at one point, reaching a low of $74.2 per ounce [1]. Group 1: International Silver Market - On December 29, the London spot silver price fell sharply, dropping nearly 5% during the day and retreating $10 per ounce from its high [1]. - The highest price recorded during the day was $83.971, while the lowest was $74.215, indicating a volatility of approximately 11.756% within the trading session [2]. - The trading volume showed a decrease of 4.97% from the previous day, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [2]. Group 2: Domestic Market Impact - In the domestic market, the Shanghai silver futures also saw a decline, with prices dropping over 2% and hitting a low of 17,500 yuan per kilogram, which is a decrease of more than 2,498 yuan from the recent high [2]. - The only public fund focused on silver futures, Guotou Silver LOF (161226.SZ), experienced extreme volatility, opening with a limit down and closing with a slight increase of 0.75% [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Traders have indicated that the international silver prices are entering a correction phase, suggesting that the night session of Shanghai silver futures may follow the downward trend [4].

Group 1 - London silver prices experienced a significant decline, with a daily drop of 2.00%, testing the critical $57 level, reaching a high of $58.75 and a low of $57.06 during the session [1] - The ADP employment report indicated an unexpected decrease in U.S. jobs for November, leading to a further decline in the dollar and a subsequent rise in silver prices, which had previously reached a historical high [3] - Short-term outlook for silver suggests that each new high or near-high is followed by a corrective pullback, indicating a cautious approach to bullish sentiment and a focus on potential retracement levels around $54-$55 [3] Group 2 - Kremlin stated that President Putin accepted some U.S. proposals aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict and is willing to continue seeking a compromise [2] - U.S. officials, including special envoy Vitkov and Jared Kushner, engaged in discussions with both Russian and Ukrainian officials, but no concrete breakthroughs were reported regarding the conflict resolution [1][2]