跟踪上海期货交易所白银主力合约的国投白银LOF大涨3.11%。 在中国古代，北宋金银比等于9，清朝大约10。 大家都知道黄金涨得猛，其实白银更猛，今年白银涨幅已经超过黄金。 1 金银比 业内有种说法，黄金白银都属于贵金属，白银是高波动版的黄金，金银行情正相关，可以用二者的价格比来估值，简称金银比。 金银比起源于2600年前。 土耳其西部有个吕底亚王国，当地盛产金银。吕底亚国王克罗伊斯主持铸造了世界上最早的金币和银币，并约定1枚金币兑换13枚银币。 金银比等于13。 金银即货币的时代，金银比和当时已探明的黄金白银储量以及开采难度挂钩，各国金银比差不太多，比较稳定。 2 定价中枢 就这样一直持续到几十年前，布雷顿森林体系解体，全球进入信用货币时代，汇率不再锚定金银。 金银重新定价，金银比的中枢来到60~80区间。 极值最高100，最低40。 所以衍生出刻舟求剑的玩法，比如金银比超过100就做多白银，赌均值归回。 3 赌均值回归 上图一张，蓝线代表金银比，红线代表白银价格。 今年4月，金银比站上100。 貌似利用金银比赚钱很简单，但我一直没参与，因为逻辑不够硬。 金银重新定价之后，黄金负责保值，白银用于工业。 黄金 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the gold-silver ratio, which reflects the relative price relationship between gold and silver, indicating whether silver is undervalued or overvalued. A higher ratio suggests silver is cheaper relative to gold, while a lower ratio indicates the opposite [3][7]. - Historical data shows that the gold-silver ratio reached a peak of 104 in April 2025, but has since declined to 94.14 as of June 20, 2025, with gold priced at $3384.4 per ounce and silver at $35.95 per ounce [3][8]. - The article notes that the gold-silver ratio typically fluctuates within a range, with 80-100 being a top and around 40 being a bottom. The current ratio of 94.14 is above the historical average of approximately 58, suggesting potential for silver price recovery [7][8]. Group 2 - The demand for silver is increasing due to its industrial applications, such as in photovoltaics and electronics, while supply growth is limited, creating a supply-demand gap that supports silver prices [9]. - The article highlights that silver is known for its high volatility, with a volatility rate 1.5 times that of gold [10]. - The recovery of the gold-silver ratio is influenced by multiple factors, including macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical events, and changes in Federal Reserve policies [11]. Group 3 - Some analysts express skepticism about the recovery of the gold-silver ratio, suggesting it may continue to rise due to the significant increase in silver production compared to gold since 1994, with silver production up by 79.9% and gold by only 43.5% [13]. - The article mentions that when the market shifts focus from gold to silver, it often indicates that prices have already reflected speculative themes, prompting investors to reassess reasonable pricing [13]. Group 4 - Currently, there is only one commodity fund investing in silver, the Guotai Silver LOF (161226), which tracks the performance of the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver futures [14]. - The fund has underperformed significantly since its inception, which is noted as a drawback for potential investors [14][19]. Group 5 - The article compares the performance of resource-related funds over the past five years, highlighting several funds that have performed relatively well, including Qianhai Kaiyuan Hong Kong-Shenzhen Core Resource Mixed A and Jiashi Resource Selection Stock A [20][23]. - The performance of the Shanghai Natural Resources Index and the CSI Upstream Resource Industry Index is discussed, with both indices showing similar performance trends over the past decade [25][27]. Group 6 - The article provides valuation metrics for the Shanghai Resource Index and the CSI Upstream Resource Index, noting their respective P/E ratios of 11.74 and 12.09, as well as P/B ratios of 1.39 and 1.41 [32][33]. - The dividend yield for the Shanghai Resource Index is reported at 4.80%, indicating a relatively attractive yield compared to the CSI Upstream Index's 4.63% [34].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice on June 9, urging investors to manage risks and control positions as gold prices experienced a decline of approximately 1% on that day [1][2][3] - The exchange has issued risk warnings six times this year, with three occurring in April alone, reflecting significant market volatility during that month [2] - The global gold ETF saw a net outflow of 19.1 tons, valued at $18.3 billion in May, marking the first outflow since November 2024 [2][3] Group 2 - On June 9, both gold futures and spot prices fell by around 1%, with 13 out of 14 gold-themed ETFs also experiencing declines [3] - Despite the recent downturn, gold-themed ETFs have shown an overall increase of nearly 25% year-to-date, while gold stock ETFs have risen over 34% [3] - Central banks continue to show net inflows into gold, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves to 73.83 million ounces by the end of May, marking a continuous growth for seven months [3] Group 3 - Other precious metals like platinum and silver have gained momentum, with platinum prices surpassing $1,200 per ounce and silver reaching over $36 per ounce, reflecting year-to-date increases of 34% and over 25%, respectively [4] - The silver ETF in the U.S. has seen significant inflows, with a single-day increase of 2.2 million ounces in holdings [4] Group 4 - Analysts suggest that the recent surge in silver prices may indicate a broader trend, as investors seek more elastic alternatives to traditional safe-haven assets like gold [7] - The net long positions for both gold and silver have increased significantly, with gold net longs rising by 13,000 contracts to reach 130,000 contracts [7][8]

Group 1 - The recent phone call between the two national leaders had a minimal impact on the capital market, with A50 futures only moving from -0.13% to 0.24%, a mere 0.37 percentage points [1] - The A-share market continues to experience narrow fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a four-day cumulative increase of only 1.13%, struggling to surpass the 3400-point mark [3] - Silver has seen significant gains, with the "Guotou Silver LOF" rising by 4.68% today, totaling an 8.2% increase over recent days, while gold ETFs only increased by 1.52% [5] Group 2 - The supply shortage is a key factor driving the rise in silver prices, with the World Platinum Investment Council predicting a 30-ton shortage in the platinum market for 2025, and silver also facing supply issues [6] - The "gold-silver ratio" is undergoing a correction, currently at 92.7, indicating that silver may offer better value compared to gold at this time [7] - There are limited investment options for silver, with the "Guotou Silver LOF" underperforming its benchmark, and trading silver futures requiring significant capital, making it less accessible for small investors [9] Group 3 - The new consumption sector appears to be facing challenges, with stocks like "Mizuki Ice City" and "Old Peking Gold" experiencing significant declines [11] - The market capitalization of new consumption companies has reached levels that seem unreasonable, with "Bubble Mart" surpassing the combined market cap of major toy companies [13] - Traditional consumption sectors, such as liquor, are also struggling, with the liquor index showing a maximum drawdown of 57.76%, comparable to previous downturns [29] Group 4 - Public fund holdings in the liquor sector have decreased significantly, with the proportion dropping from 8.48% in Q4 2020 to 3.71% in Q1 2023, indicating a shift in investment sentiment [16][17] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the liquor index is 18.87, which is at a level similar to the end of 2018, but the sustainability of this valuation is questioned due to potential future earnings stagnation [23][31] - The liquor index has maintained a dividend yield of 4.2%, suggesting that even with a significant price drop, the yield could remain attractive, raising questions about the likelihood of such a decline [31]