自银高位回落 提示短期价格压力 目银 我们认为白银阶段性顶部已现。我们观察近日白银 有几个变化:1、由于此前国内投机情绪集中涌入、以 及下游备货等行为,国内现货升水高企,但近期有所缓 和;海外白银租赁利率明显回落,1M从8%以上回落至 4.46%, 目结构从back转为contango。2、价差方面, 尽管伦纽维持升水,但内外价差有所收敛,国内溢价持 续挤出。3、资金层面,交易所对白银风控加码,限制 最大开仓数量,打压多头热情。此外,1月8日BCOM权 童调整即便市场规模有限,但在多空均有犹豫的高位下 对多空博弈的砝码影响可能高于理性判断,且美国最高 法院周五将对特朗普关税是否合法做出裁决,可能成为 大逻辑上判断白银现货矛盾关键的证伪因素。 场外衍生品部联系方式:021-33037568 内容来源:国泰君安期货研究所、风险管理子公司 我们讨论是否代表了白银趋势已经结束、或者已到 趋势空头机会?首先,在大宏观环境水温仍然偏暖(经 济数据稳步向好,资金流动性宽裕,货币政策预期稳定) 的情况下,商品趋势底部应是不断抬升的;其次目前地 缘政治格局紧张,对资源的争抢仍然是长周期利多逻辑; 最后,我们前期反复提及的白银现 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report believes that the silver has reached a phased peak, and the pressure for bulls to continue to push up prices is gradually increasing. The current spot tightness has reached a small peak after the New Year's Day, showing signs of weakness in both the capital and fundamental aspects. Therefore, the silver trend - long strategy is worth exiting [1]. - The current decline and adjustment of silver do not represent the end of the long - term trend. However, the current point has a poor profit - loss ratio, and the adjustment is not over. The spot market needs to ferment again to drive the futures price up [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Silver Price Analysis - There have been several changes in silver recently: the domestic spot premium has eased, the overseas silver lease rate has significantly dropped from over 8% to 4.46%, and the term structure has changed from back to contango; the internal - external price difference has converged, and the domestic premium has been continuously squeezed out; the exchange has strengthened risk control for silver, restricting the maximum number of open positions and dampening the enthusiasm of bulls. The ruling of the US Supreme Court on Trump's tariffs may be a key factor in falsifying the contradiction in the silver spot market [1]. Trend Judgment - In a macro - environment with good economic data, abundant liquidity and stable monetary policy expectations, the bottom of the commodity trend should be continuously rising. The current tense geopolitical situation is a long - term bullish factor, and the contradiction in the silver spot market still exists [2]. Option Strategies - For on - exchange options, the implied volatility of silver options is falling in a positive correlation with the price. One can consider selling out - of - the - money call options to earn volatility premium income. If worried about the risk of the price continuing to soar, one can buy a small amount of in - the - money call options for hedging [3]. - For off - exchange options, for customers planning short - term bets on the callback opportunity, it is recommended to arrange a short - term and medium - range circuit - breaker fixed - payout put ladder option to increase income during the market oscillation period, and also build short positions rhythmically at high prices [4].